Sinha, Pankaj and Thomas, Ashley Rose and Ranjan, Varun (2012): Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Models.

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Abstract
Contemporary discussions on 2012 U.S Presidential election mention that economic variables such as unemployment rate, inflation, budget deficit/surplus, public debt, tax policy and healthcare spending will be deciding elements in the forthcoming November election. Certain researchers like Bartells and Zaller (2001), LewisBeck and Rice (1982), and Lichtman and KeilisBorok (1996) have investigated the significance of noneconomic variables in forecasting the U.S election. This paper investigates the influence of combination of various economic and noneconomic variables as factors influencing the outcome of 2012 U.S Presidential election, using statistical factor analysis. The obtained factor scores are used to predict the vote share of the incumbent using regression model. The paper also employs logit and probit models to predict the probability of win for the incumbent candidate in 2012 U.S Presidential election. It is found that the factors combining above economic variables are insignificant in deciding the outcome of the 2012 election. The factor combining the noneconomic variables such as Gallup Ratings, GIndex, wars and scandals has been found significantly influencing the public perception of the performance of the Government and its policies, which in turn affects the voting decision. The proposed factor regression model forecasts that the Democrat candidate Mr. Barack Obama is likely to get a vote share between 51.84%  54.26% with 95% confidence interval in the forthcoming November 2012 U.S Presidential election. While, the proposed logit and probit models forecast the probability of win for the Democrat candidate Mr. Barack Obama to be 67.37% and 67.00%, respectively.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Models 
English Title:  Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Models 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit model, 2012 U.S Presidential Election, Economic and noneconomic variables 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling > C53  Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling D  Microeconomics > D7  Analysis of Collective DecisionMaking > D72  Political Processes: RentSeeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2  Single Equation Models; Single Variables C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0  General > C01  Econometrics C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1  Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General 
Item ID:  42062 
Depositing User:  Pankaj Sinha 
Date Deposited:  19. Oct 2012 22:55 
Last Modified:  22. Feb 2013 05:48 
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URI:  http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/42062 