Gumus, Erdal (2005): Benefit-Cost Analysis of Reforming the Turkish Social Insurance Institution for the Self-Employed (Bağ-Kur). Published in: METU Studies in Development , Vol. 33, No. 2 (December 2006): pp. 169-206.
Download (227Kb) | Preview
The purpose of this study is to estimate social benefits and social costs associated with a Feldsteinian-type gradual privatization of the Turkish Social Insurance Institute for Self –Employed Persons, “BK”. Based on data provided by the International Labor Organization, financial projections of the institution were made and extended to apply benefit cost model of privatization. Present value of the change in net social benefit was estimated. The effect of privatization on representative individuals has also been quantified. Results indicate that social benefits associated with a privatization alternative exceed the social costs even after adjustments for changes in key parameters that reduce social net benefits. However, privatization affects current representative individuals so negatively that it may constitute a “good political reason” to be against, rather than in favor of, choosing privatization.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Benefit-Cost Analysis of Reforming the Turkish Social Insurance Institution for the Self-Employed (Bağ-Kur)|
|Keywords:||social security; Bag-Kur; Turkey; privatization; benefit-cost analysis|
|Subjects:||H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions
H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J26 - Retirement; Retirement Policies
D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D14 - Personal Finance
|Depositing User:||Erdal Gumus|
|Date Deposited:||21. Oct 2012 19:17|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 00:10|
AKALIN, G. (1999), “Sosyal Güvenlik Sistemimiz: Sorunlar ve Çözüm Önerileri”, Liberal Düsünce Topluluğu 18, 29 September 2000 <http://www.liberaldt.org.tr/dergiler.htm>.
ALESSIE, R., and KAPTEYN, A. (2001), “Savings and Pensions in The Netherlands”, Research in Economics, 55, 61-82.
ALPER, Y. (2003), “Tek Çatı Yaklasımı Sosyal Güvenlik Sistemimiz Đle Đlgili En Önemli Ve Acil Mesele Değildir”, Tisk – Đsveren Dergisi, Mayıs (http://www.tisk.org.tr/isveren_sayfa.asp?yazi_id=721&id=43 Erisim: 11.09.2006).
ALPER, Y. (1999), “Yeni Bir Yüzyıla Girerken Yeniden Yapılanmanın Esiğindeki Sosyal Güvenlik”, Çimento Đsveren Dergisi, 3 (13), 10-35.
ATTANASIO, O. P., and PAIELLA, M. (2001), “Households Savings in the U.S.A.”, Research in Economics, 55, 109-32.
AYDIN, U. (1998), “Sosyal Güvenlikte Özellestirme Sebepler ve Uygulamalar”, Çimento Đsveren Dergisi, 5 (12), 4-17.
BAKER, D. (1998), “Critiques about Social Security Privatization”, Washington Post, 23 December.
BARRO, R. J. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 82, 1095-1117.
————(1978), The Impact of Social Security on Private Saving: Evidence from the U.S. Time Series, Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
BARROS, D. (1979), “Private Saving and the Provision of Social Security in Britain 1946-75”, Von Furstenberg, 229-55.
BROWNING, E. K. (1987), “On the Marginal Welfare Cost of Taxation”, American Economic Review, 77 (1), 11-23.
CENTEL, T. (1997), Sosyal Güvenlikte Yapısal Değisim, Đstanbul: Sahinkaya Matbaası.
CORONADO, J. L. (1997), “The Effects of Social Security Privatization on Household Saving: Evidence from the Chilean Experience”, Staff Working Paper, Washington, D.C.: Discussion Series Division of Research and Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board.
ÇAVUSOĞLU, S. (1998), “Financial Implications of Pension Reform in Turkey”, Diss. Boston University.
DENNY, M., and REA, A. S. (1979), “Pensions and Saving in Canada”, Von Furstenberg, 135-65.
DIXON, J. (1999), Social Security in Global Perspective, Connecticut: Praeger Publishers.
ERCAN, M. and GÖKÇE, D. (1998), “Defined Contribution Model: Definition, Theory and an Application for Turkey”, ISE Review, 2 (7-8), 33-49.
FELDSTEIN, M. and SAMWICK, A. (1999), “Maintaining Social Security Benefits and Tax Rates Through Personal Retirement Accounts: An Update Based on the 1998 Social Security Trustees Report”, NBER Working Paper No. W6540, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
FELDSTEIN, M. and SAMWICK, A. (1998), “The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security”, in Martin Feldstein, ed., Privatizing Social Security, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 215-60.
FELDSTEIN, M. (1997), “The Case for Privatization”, Foreign Affairs, July/August, 24-38.
————(1996a), “The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform”, American Economic Review, 86 (2), 1-14.
————(1996b), “Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence”, National Tax Journal, 49 (2), 151-64.
————(1995), “Tax Avoidance and the Deadweight loss of the Income Tax”, NBER Working Paper No. 5055, Cambridge, MA: NBER, 1-41.
————(1978), “Reply”, in Robert J. Barro, The Impact of Social Security on Private Saving: Evidence from the U.S. Time Series, Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
————(1974), “Social Security, Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Accumulation”, Journal of Political Economy, 82 (5), 905-26.
FUSUNOĞLU, M. (1998), “Prospects for Private Pension System and Their Relation to the Stock Market in Turkey”, ISE Review, 2 (7-8), 91-104.
GRAMLICH, E. M. (1990), A Guide to Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
GÜLTEKIN, N. B. and LOGUE, D. E. (1979),“Social Security and Personal Saving: Survey and New Evidence”,Von Furstenberg, 65-132.
GÜMÜS, E. (2005), “Benefit-Cost Analysis of Turkish Social Insurance Institute’s Gradual Privatization Proposal,” Journal of Economic Cooperation, 26, (4), 87-126.
————(2001), “Benefit-Cost Analysis of Turkish Social Security Reform Proposals”, Diss. Oklahoma State University.
GÜZEL, A. (2005), “Türk Sosyal Güvenlik Sisteminde Öngörülen Reform Mevcut Sorunlara Çözüm mü?”, Çalısma ve Toplum, 4, 61-76.
INTERNATIONAL LABOR OFFICE (1995a), Model Results: Basic Scenarios and Options interim Report Part 1 – Main Report, Geneva: December.
————(1995b), Model Results: Basic Scenarios and Options interim Report Part 2 – Statistical Annexes, Geneva: December.
————(1996a), Social Security Final Report, Geneva: March.
————(1996b), Supplementary Modelling Report, Geneva: June.
IMF (2000), Turkey: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix, Staff Country Report No: 00/14. Washington, D.C.: IMF Publication Services, February.
KOTLIKOFF, L. J. (1996), “Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters”, In James M. Poterba ed. Tax Policy and the Economy, Cambridge, MIT Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 10, 1-32.
MARKOWSKI, A., and PALMER, E. E. (1979), “Social Insurance and Saving in Sweden”, Von Furstenberg, 167-228.
MEGUIRE, P. (1998), “Comment: Social Security and Private Savings”, National Tax Journal 51 (2), 339-358.
MITHCHELL, O. S. (1996), “Administrative Costs in Public and Private Retirement Systems”, NBER Working Paper No. 5734, Cambridge, MA: NBER, 1-51.
MITCHELL, O. S., and ZELDES, S. P. (1996), “Social Security Privatization: A Structure for Analysis”, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 86 (2), 363-67.
OECD (1998), The Tax/Benefit Position of Employees 1997, 1998 Edition, Paris: OECD.
OUDET, B. A. (1979), “Data and Studies on Saving in France: A Survey”, Von Furstenberg, 257-76.
HURLER, P., DENNERLEIN, R., and PFAFF, M. (1979), “Old-Age Security and Saving in the Federal Republic of Germany”, Von Furstenberg, 277-312.
SAYAN, S., and KENC, T. (1999), “Long –term Consequences of Rehabilitating a Financially Troubled pension System: An Overlapping Generations, General Equilibrium Analysis for Turkey”, Economic Research Forum Working Paper No: 9914, Cairo ERF, 1-33.
SAYAN, S., and KIRACI, A. (2001a), “Parametric Pension Reform with Higher Retirement Ages: A Computational Investigation of Alternatives for a Pay-As-You-Go Based Pension System”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25 (6-7), 951-966.
————(2001b), “Identification of Parametric Policy Options for Rehabilitating a Pay-As-You-Go Based Pension System: An Optimization Analysis for Turkey”, Applied Economics Letters, 8 (2), 89-93.
SAYAN, S., and KENC, T. ( 2001), “Demographic Shock Transmission from Large to Small Countries: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), 677-702.
SAYAN, S., and TEKSOZ, A. T. (2002), “Simulation of Benefits and Risks After the Planned Privatization of Pension System in Turkey: Is the Expected Boost to Financial Markets Feasible”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 38(5), 23-45.
STATE PLANNING ORGANIZATION, “Social Security Reform in Turkey”, Unpublished Government Document.
SCHULZ, J. (2000), “The Risks of Pension Privatization in Britain”, Challenge, (January-February), 93-104.
TUNCAY, C. (2005), “Türk Emeklilik Sisteminde Reform Projesinin Değerlendirilmesi”, Çimento Đsveren Dergisi, 2 (19), 4-17.
————(2000), “Bireysel Emeklilik Rejimi Uzerine”, Çimento Đsveren Dergisi 2(14), 3-16.
————(1998), “TUSIAD’in Sosyal Guvenlik Raporunun Ardindan”, Çimento Isveren Dergisi 1 (12), 1 November 2000 <http://www.cmis.org.tr/cmis/dergi/1mak981.htm>
TUSIAD (1997), Türk Sosyal Güvenlik Sisteminde Yeniden Yapilanma, Yayin No:TUSIAD-T/97- 10/217, Istanbul.
————(2004), Türk Emeklilik Sisteminde Reform: Mevcut Durum ve Alternatif Stratejiler, (Yayın No: TUSIAD-T/2004-11/382), Đstanbul.
UNDERSECRETARIAT OF TREASURY (1999), Republic of Turkey social security and Health Insurance Reform Project: Study B Final Report, Unpublished government document, Ankara.
VON FURSTENBERG, G. M., (1979), ed. Social Security versus Private Saving, Massachusetts: Ballinger Publishing Company.