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Um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral para planejamento e análise de políticas agrícolas (PAPA) na economia brasileira

Guilhoto, Joaquim J.M. (1995): Um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral para planejamento e análise de políticas agrícolas (PAPA) na economia brasileira.

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Abstract

This work describes a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Planning and Analysis of Agricultural Policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian economy. The PAPA model is a Computable model of the Johansen type and the solutions of the model are given in growth rates. This model is based on the ORANI model constructed for the Australian economy and in that sense it is a general purpose model that can be used to study the impact of agricultural policies not only on the agricultural sector, but also in the other economic sectors, in such way, it is also possible to study the impact of non-agricultural policies on the agricultural sector. The model is defined for: a) 33 types of industrieslcommodities; b) 3 types of primary factors (labor, fixed capital, and agricultural land); c) 3 categories of labor (workers who receive: between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages); d) 2 sources of products (domestic, and imported); e) 5 types of product use (inputs to current production, inputs to capital formation, commodity flows to household consumption, exports, government and other demands); and, f) 3 income groups (between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages). The model also presents a detailed specification for trade margins and taxes. The basic input-output data used in the model refers to the 1980 input-output matrices for the Brazilian economy. To illustrate the versatility and power of analysis of the PAPA model, this work presents the result of five simulations with the model: a) overall increase of 25% in the tariffs; b) increase of 10% in the aggregate expenditure of households in each income group; c) increase of 10% in the international price of coffee; d) increase of 10% in the exports of selected agricultural 1 agroindustrial sectors; e e) elimination of subsidies in the wheat sector.

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