Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Getting to know China

Tatom, John (2007): Getting to know China. Published in: Networks Financial Institute Report No. 2007-NFI-01 (26. January 2007)

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Abstract

China, a low income country about the same geographic size as the US and with over four times the population, has had persistent rapid growth that averaged 9.6 percent per year since reform began in 1979. On a per capita basis, real GDP is eight times larger than it was 26 years earlier! China’s population is expected to continue to slow, reaching near zero in 30 years. It has already slowed markedly due to the one-child policy from about 1.5 percent per year in the late 1970s, to about 0.6 percent in recent years. China is likely to become the US’ third largest trading partner, supplying relatively cheap and high quality machinery, apparel and other goods, and a large market where US producers can produce and/or sell their products. At the same time, private Chinese investment is likely to become an important source of saving and financing for US economic activity. Doing business with China has always been a two-way street and that street is beginning to widen to include significant flows of entrepreneurial and financial resources in both directions.

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