Kociecki, Andrzej (2012): Orbital Priors for TimeSeries Models.

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Abstract
We propose the unified approach to construct the non–informative prior for time–series econometric models that are invariant under some group of transformations. We show that this invariance property characterizes some of the most popular models hence the applicability of the proposed framework is quite general. The suggested prior enjoys many desirable properties both from the Bayesian and non–Bayesian perspective. We provide detailed derivations of our prior in many standard time–series models including, AutoRegressions (AR), Vector AutoRegressions (VAR), Structural VAR and Error Correction Models (ECM).
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Orbital Priors for TimeSeries Models 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  Bayesian; Model invariance; Groups; Free group action; Orbit; Right Haar measure; Orbital decomposition; Maximal invariant; Cross section; Intersubjective prior; Vector AutoRegression (VAR); Structural VAR; Error Correction Model (ECM) 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1  Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C10  General C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3  Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32  TimeSeries Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1  Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11  Bayesian Analysis: General 
Item ID:  42804 
Depositing User:  Andrzej Kociecki 
Date Deposited:  24. Nov 2012 17:49 
Last Modified:  02. Jul 2015 08:26 
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URI:  http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/42804 