Ruiz, Juan (2004): Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo. Published in: Banco de España, Boletín Económico (Bank of Spain, Economic Bulletin) No. December (December 2004): pp. 29-45.
Download (206Kb) | Preview
The price of oil has had a marked increase since 2002. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude -the two main benhcmarks of the market- have surpassed their historical maximum reached in 1991 during the first Gulf War, though, in real terms, the price of oil is still below that of 1980. This increase in prices, and the risk of further increments, justifies an evaluation of the consequences on global growth and inflation. This article presents a brief review of the recent evolution of the price of oil and tries to identify the main factors behind its increase. In addition, some factors that can influence the future evolution of the price of oil in the short and long run are presented, as well as an estimation of the effect of a further increase in the price of oil over growth and inflation for the main industrial economies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo|
|Keywords:||Oil price; growth; inflation; global economy|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy
|Depositing User:||Juan M. Ruiz|
|Date Deposited:||16. Oct 2006|
|Last Modified:||18. Feb 2014 15:16|
BARRELL, R. and O. POMERANTZ (2004). Oil Prices and the World Economy, NIESR Discussion Paper 242. BERNANKE, B. (2004). Oil and the Economy. Discurso pronunciado en Darton College, Albany, Georgia, EEUU. BCE (2004). Oil Prices and the Euro Area Economy, ECB Monthly Bulletin, November. CHINN, M., M. LEBLANC y O. COIBION (2001). The Predictive Characteristics of Energy Futures: Recent Evidence for Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline and Heating Oil, mimeo, University of California, Santa Cruz. DALSGAARD, T., C. ANDRÉ y P. RICHARDSON (2001). Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model, OECD Economics Department Working Paper 306. DIEPPE, A. and J. HENRY (2004). The Euro Area Viewed as a Single Economy: How Does it Respond to Shocks?, Economic Modelling 21, pp. 833–875. EUROPEAN COMMISION (2004). How vulnerable is the euro area to higher oil prices? Quarterly report on the Euro Area, 3(2), pp. 15–20. FARRELL, G., B. KAHN and F. VISSER (2001). Price Determination in Internacional Oil Markets: Developments and Prospects, South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin, Marzo. GOLDMAN SACHS (2004), The Sustainability of Higher Oil Prices, Global Commodity Research Unit, Junio. HUNT, B., P. ISARD and D. LAXTON (2001). The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices, IMF Working Paper WP/01/14. JIMÉNEZ-RODRÍGUEZ, R and M. SÁNCHEZ (2004). Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth – Empirical Evidence for some OECD Countries, ECB Working Paper 362. OCDE (2004). Economic Outlook, Noviembre. PINDYCK, R. (2001). The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: a Primer. The Energy Journal, Vol. 22(3).