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Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Ohio

Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo (2006): Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Ohio.

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Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Ohio. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder warns that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Ohio creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Ohio. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf. Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf., and Arkansas. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

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