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Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Arkansas

Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo (2007): Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Arkansas.

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Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Arkansas. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part does not coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have not affected Arkansas, presenting this State as immune to the suffering of the nation, and to the occurrence of attacks. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Arkansas. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf. , and Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

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