Rwanda’s involvement in Eastern DRC: A criminal real options approach

Cassimon, Danny and Engelen, Peter-Jan and Reyntjens, Filip (2013): Rwanda’s involvement in Eastern DRC: A criminal real options approach. Published in: Crime, Law, and Social Change No. 59 (2013): pp. 39-62.

Abstract

This paper applies an alternative model to analyze criminal behaviour by countries based on real option models. Criminal options incorporate a richer framework than traditional cost-benefit models and allow examining the optimal timing of a crime as criminals have the possibility but not the obligation to commit a crime in the near future. From the model, we show how criminal states can actively manage their criminal options. More importantly, we show how the international community can optimally intervene pro-actively, by reducing the incentives for criminal states to execute their criminal options. These novel insights are then applied to two episodes of criminal behaviour by Rwanda in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): the massive killing of Hutu refugees by the Rwanda Patriotic Army (RPA) in late 1996-early 1997 and the illegal exploitation of Congolese resources from August 1998 onwards. This article describes and assesses these activities from this real option perspective.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: criminal behaviour, real options, criminal state, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F52 - National Security ; Economic Nationalism; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G13 - Contingent Pricing ; Futures Pricing; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance; K - Law and Economics > K0 - General; K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics

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