The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?

Lahvicka, Jiri (2013): The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?

Abstract

This article investigates the strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. In the previous literature, this strategy has been found to be both simple and profitable, indicating that the soccer betting market is not efficient. The strategy is tested both in a simulated market and on a real data set of almost 60,000 European soccer matches. Contrary to the previous findings in the literature, all tested versions of the Fibonacci betting strategy are found to lose money.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Fibonacci betting strategy, market efficiency
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism

References

Archontakis, F., & Osborne, E. (2007). Playing It Safe? A Fibonacci Strategy for Soccer Betting. Journal of Sports Economics, 8(3), 295-308.

Demir, E., Danis, H., & Rigoni, U. (2012). Is the Soccer Betting Market Efficient? A Cross-Country Investigation Using the Fibonacci Strategy. The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 6(2), 29-49.

Goddard, J., & Asimakopoulos, I. (2004). Forecasting Football Results and the Efficiency of Fixed-odds Betting. Journal of Forecasting, 23(1), 51-66.

Kuypers, T. (2000). Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market. Applied Economics, 32(11), 1353-1363.

Sauer, R. D. (1998, December). The Economics of Wagering Markets. Journal of Economic Literature, 36(4), 2021-2064.

Thaler, R. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1988, Spring). Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(2), 161-174.

Vlastakis, N., Dotsis, G., & Markellos, R. N. (2009). How Efficient is the European Football Betting Market? Evidence from Arbitrage and Trading Strategies. Journal of Forecasting(28), 426-444.