Arby, M. Farooq (2001): Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP. Published in: SBP Working Paper Series No. No.1 (September 2001)
![[img]](http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png)
| PDF - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader 318Kb |
Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.
| Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
|---|---|
| Institution: | State Bank of Pakistan |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | business cycles; growth; pakistan |
| Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles |
| ID Code: | 4929 |
| Deposited By: | Muhammad Farooq Arby |
| Deposited On: | 15. Sep 2007 |
| Last Modified: | 07. Nov 2007 04:18 |
| References: | Baxter, M & King R.G. (1995); Measuring business cycles approximate Bank-Pass filters for economic time series, NBER, WP 5022, February 1995 Box G.E.P. & Gwilyn M. Jenkins (1970); Time series analysis, forecasting and control, San Francisco, Holden Day, 1970 Hodrick, R. J. & Edward Prescott (1997); Post-war business cycle: an empirical investigation, Journal of Money, Credit & Banking 29 (1), February 1997 Lucas, Robert E. (1981); Studies in business cycle theory, Cambridge, Mass; The MIT Press, 1981 Rotemberg, J.J. (1999); A heuristic method for extracting smooth trends from economic time series, NBER, WP 7439, December, 1999. Reeves J.J., Blyth A. C., Triggs M. C, & Small P.J. (2000); The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, a Generalization and a New Procedure for Extracting an Empirical Cycle from a Series; Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, April 2000, 4(1): 1-16 Pederson M. Torben (1998); The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the Slutzky-effect and the distortionary effect of filters; DP No. 9/1998; Institute of Economics, University of Cpenhagen, November, 1998 |
All papers reproduced by permission. Reproduction and distribution subject to the approval of the copyright owners.
Repository Staff Only: item control page
