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A complementary test for ADF test with an application to the exchange rates returns

Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Lau, Sie-Hoe and Ling, Siew-Eng (2005): A complementary test for ADF test with an application to the exchange rates returns. Unpublished.

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Abstract

This study shows that augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test failed to detect covariance nonstationary series. Supportive of Ahamada (2004), this study finds that the cumulative sums of squares procedure in Inclán and Tiao (1994) is useful to complement the ADF test. As illustration, the ADF test indicates that there is no unit root in the returns of Japanese yen/US dollar, British pound/ US dollar and Swiss franc/US. However, the complementary test reveals that each of these returns contains heterogeneous variance. To sum, it can be concluded that these exchange rate returns are covariance nonstationary although there is no unit root.

Item Type:MPRA Paper
Language:English
Keywords:cumulative sums of squares; covariance nonstationary; exchange rate returns
Subjects:C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing
ID Code:518
Deposited By:Venus Khim-Sen Liew
Deposited On:19. Oct 2006
Last Modified:25. Jul 2011 16:26
References:

Ahamada, I. (2004) “A complementary test for the KPSS test with an application to the US dollar/Euro exchange rate” Economic Bulletin 3(4), 1 – 5.

Billingsley, P. (1968) Convergence of Probability Measures, John-Wiley: New York.

Dickey, D. (1976) Introduction to Statistical Time Series, Wiley: New York.

Dickey, D. and W. A. Fuller (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for time series regressios with a unit root” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427 – 431.

Inclán, C. and G.C. Tiao (1994) “Use of cumulative sums of squares for retrospective detection of changes of variance” Journal of American Statistical Association 89, 913 – 923.

Phillpis, P.C.B. (1987) “Time series regression with a unit root” Econometrica 55, 277 – 301.

Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron (1988) “Testing for a unit root in time series regressions” Biometrika 65, 335 – 346.

Kwiatkowski, D., P.C.B. Phillips, P. Schmidt and Y. Shin (1992) “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of unit root” Journal of Econometrics 54, 159 – 178.

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