Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan

Kitov, Ivan (2007): Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_5464.pdf

Download (161Kb) | Preview

Abstract

Past and future evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan is modeled. Both variables are represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force level. These models provide an accurate description for disinflation in the 1990s and deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a statistically reliable (R2=0.68) Phillips curve. This Phillips curve is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment and their synchronous evolution: UE(t) = -0.94p(t) + 0.045. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1982. A linear and lagged generalized relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Japan: p(t) = 2.8*dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.9*UE(t) - 0.0392. Labor force projections allow a reliable prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan: CPI inflation will be negative (between -0.5% and -1% per year) during the next 40 years. Unemployment will increase from 4.0% in 2010 to 5.3% in 2050

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.