Effects of fiscal shocks in new EU members estimated from a SVARX model with debt feedback

Stanova, Nadja (2015): Effects of fiscal shocks in new EU members estimated from a SVARX model with debt feedback.

Abstract

This paper analyses in a VAR framework with debt feedback effects of fiscal policy over 1999q1-2013q4 in five Central and East European economies: Slovakia, Czech republic, Hungary, Slovenia and Lithuania. The results are compared to two alternative specifications, a model without debt feedback, and a model with debt within the linear VAR. Omitting the debt feedback would affect the magnitude and sign of the impulse response coefficients, especially those of GDP, government revenue and interest rate. Simulated out-of-sample debt paths are stabilised if debt feedback is included, but strongly explosive otherwise.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: fiscal policy, structural VAR, debt dynamics, endogenous debt feedback, impulse response functions, historical decomposition of times series, meta-analysis, CEE countries, new EU member states
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt

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