Halicioglu, Ferda (2008): The JCurve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model.

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Abstract
This article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the Jcurve phenomenon both in the shortrun and longrun for Turkey over the period 19802005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective exchange rates, foreign income and domestic income. The stability of the shortrun as well as longrun coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too. The empirical results suggest that the Jcurve phenomenon is supported only in the shortrun. Whilst causality tests reveal mix results, the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  The JCurve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model 
English Title:  The JCurve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  Jcurve, trade balance, cointegration, causality, stability tests, Turkey 
Subjects:  F  International Economics > F1  Trade > F14  Empirical Studies of Trade C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2  Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22  TimeSeries Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models F  International Economics > F3  International Finance > F31  Foreign Exchange 
Item ID:  6824 
Depositing User:  Ferda HALICIOGLU 
Date Deposited:  15. Aug 2012 13:54 
Last Modified:  15. Feb 2013 04:45 
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URI:  http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/6824 