Halicioglu, Ferda (2008): The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model.
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This article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective exchange rates, foreign income and domestic income. The stability of the short-run as well as long-run coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too. The empirical results suggest that the J-curve phenomenon is supported only in the short-run. Whilst causality tests reveal mix results, the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model|
|English Title:||The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model|
|Keywords:||J-curve, trade balance, cointegration, causality, stability tests, Turkey|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange
|Depositing User:||Ferda HALICIOGLU|
|Date Deposited:||15. Aug 2012 13:54|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 04:45|
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