Murphy, Kevin M and Simon, Curtis and Tamura, Robert (2008): Fertility decline, baby boom and economic growth.
Download (505Kb) | Preview
We present new data documenting the secular decline in fertility in the states of the United States, the dramatic convergence in fertility, child schooling, parental schooling, survival probabilities. In addition we document the disparate nature of the Baby Boom in the United States. There were two different regimes, a large Baby Boom and a Small Baby Boom. The large Baby Boom regions also had the smallest increase in child schooling, whereas the small Baby Boom regions had the largest increase in child schooling. We present suggestive evidence that falling mortality risk is strongly positively correlated with falling fertility, rising education levels of parents is strongly negatively related to fetility, and that population density is negatively related to fertility. Finally we show the robust negative correlation of mortality risk on child schooling attainment, and positve correlation of population density and child schooling attainment.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Fertility decline, baby boom and economic growth|
|Keywords:||mortality; density; fertility decline; baby boom; economic growth|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
|Depositing User:||Robert Tamura|
|Date Deposited:||12. Mar 2008 18:55|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 13:53|
Bailey, Martha, Collins, William. "The Demographic Effects of Household Electrification," University of Michigan working paper, 2006. Barro, Robert, and Sala-i-Martin, Xavier. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy 100, 1992: 223-251. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 122: 2007: 775-806. Becker, Gary S. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," in Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960. Becker, Gary S., and Lewis, H. Gregg. "On the Interaction of between the Quantity of Children and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy 81, 1973: S279-S288. Becker, Gary S., Murphy, Kevin M., and Tamura, Robert. "Human Capital, Fertility and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy 98, 1990: S12-S37. Easterlin, Richard. "The Baby Boom in Historical Perspective," American Economic Review 51, 1961: 869-911. Easterlin, Richard. "Economic-Demographic Interactions and Long-Swings in Economic Growth," American Economic Review 56, 1966: 1063-1104. Ehrlich, Isaac, and Lui, Francis.T. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy 99, 1991: 1029-1059. Greenwood, Jeremy, Seshadri, Ananth, and Vandenbroucke, Guillaume. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review 95, 2005: 183-207. Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the Present, Millennial Edition, Volume 1, Cambridge University Press 2006. Jones, Chad. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth over the Very Long-Run," Advances in Macroeconomics 2001. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem. "Does Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?" Journal of Economic Growth 7, 2002: 411-439. Kalemli-Ozcab, Sebnem. "A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility and Human Capital Investment." Journal of Development Economics 62, 2003: 103-118. Lucas, Robert E., Jr. "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 1988: 3-42. Melosi, Martin V. The Sanitary City, The Johns Hopkins Press: Baltimore, 2000. Meltzer, David. "Mortality Decline, The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth," University of Chicago working paper, 2006. Simon, Curtis, and Tamura, Robert. "Fertility Declines and Baby Booms," Clemson University working paper, 2007. Soares, Rodrigo. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review 95, 2005: 580-601. Tamura, Robert. "Teachers, Growth and Convergence," Journal of Political Economy 109, 2001: 1021-1059. Tamura, Robert. "Human Capital and Economic Development," Journal of Development Economics 79, 2006: 26-72. Troesken, Werner. Water, Race, and Disease, The MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 2004. Turner, Chad, Tamura, Robert, Mulholland, Sean, and Baier, Scott. "Education and Income of the States of the United States: 1840 - 2000," Journal of Economic Growth 12, 2007: 101-158.