Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Un modelo RSDAIDS para las importaciones de madera de Estados Unidos y sus implicaciones para Colombia

Alviar Ramírez, Mauricio and Restrepo Patiño, Medardo and Gallón Gómez, Santiago (2002): Un modelo RSDAIDS para las importaciones de madera de Estados Unidos y sus implicaciones para Colombia. Published in: Borradores del CIE No. 2 (November 2002): pp. 1-21.

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Abstract

This paper presents the main results of a model of import demand of wood products in the U.S. and its implications for Colombia. The time length considered here was 1980-1999. The theoretical model used was developed by Deaton and Muellbauer in 1980 and it is called: An Almost Ideal Demand System. This model allows the estimation of price and income elasticities for different types of wood products. The methodology used consists of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SUR), popular in the econometrics literature. This paper shows, on one hand, that despite of the tremendous forest potential that Colombia has, its participation in international markets is negligible. On the other hand, if Colombia decided to develop the forest sector, it would have to face some strong competitors such as Canada and some Asian countries. The cross-price elasticities show that in the case of round wood the majority of countries behaves like complementary goods. The sign of the elasticities are the expected which allows to conclude that the model well fits the data

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