Adams, Charles and Coe, David T. (1989): A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States.
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The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with "real" and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1990s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and the natural rate.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States|
|Keywords:||Potential output; natural rate; systems estimation|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
|Depositing User:||David/T Coe|
|Date Deposited:||07. May 2008 07:01|
|Last Modified:||24. Feb 2013 10:18|
Chan-Lee, James, David T. Coe, and Menahem Prywes, 1987, “Microeconomic Changes and Macroeconomic Wage Disinflation in the 1980s,” OECD Economic Studies, No. 8 (Spring).
Coe, David T., 1990, “Structural Determinants of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Canada,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 37, No. 1 (March).
Coe, David T. 1985, “Nominal Wages, the NAIRU and Wage Flexibility,” OECD Economic Studies, No. 5 (Autumn).
Friedman, M., 1968, "The Role of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review (March).
Phelps, E., 1967, "Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time," Economica (August).
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