Forecasting Demand for Electricity: Some Methodological Issues and an Analysis

Pillai N., Vijayamohanan (2008): Forecasting Demand for Electricity: Some Methodological Issues and an Analysis. Unpublished.

Abstract

Electricity demand projection is of utmost importance as electricity has become a vital input to the wellbeing of any society, driving the demand for it from an ever-expanding set of diverse needs to grow on an increasing rate, which in turn places increasing demands on scarce resources of capital investment, material means, and man-power. More specifically, the continuing ‘energy crisis’ has made crucial the need for accurate projection of electricity demand; hence the importance of the forecasting methods. The present paper critically evaluates the electricity demand forecasting methodology and proposes a methodology in the classical time series framework.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Electricity demand, Forecasting, Kerala, Time series analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C32 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; L - Industrial Organization > L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities > L94 - Electric Utilities

References

1. Banerjee, Nirmala (1979) Demand for Electricity, Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta, K. P. Bagchi and Co., Calcutta.

2. Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. (1970) Time Series Analysis, Holden-day, San-Francisco.

3. Government of India (1974), The Report of the Fuel Policy committee of India.

4. Government of Kerala (1977) Report of the Steering Committee on Energy and Power, Ninth Five Year Plan, 1997-2002, State Planning Board, Feb., Thiruvananthapuram,, Kerala, India.

5. Henderson, P. D. (1875) India: The Energy Sector, Oxford University Press.

6. IRTC and IEI, (1996) Exercises for Integrated Resource Planning for Kerala: End-Use Analysis – An Empirical Study: Technical Report I – Electricity, Palakkad, Kerala).

7. Lencz, Imrich (1977) ‘Prognoses of the consumption of energy, The Czechoslovak experience’, in William D. Nordhaus (ed.)(1977) pp. 83 –94.

8. Makridakis, S. and Wheelwright, S. C. (1978) Forecasting Methods and Applications, Wiley, New York.

9. Nordhaus, William D. (ed.) (1977) International Studies of the Demand for Energy, North-Holland, Amsterdam.

10. Pachauri, R. K. (1975) Dynamics of Electrical Energy Supply and Demand: An Economic Analysis, Praeger Publishers, New York.

11. Parikh, Jyoti K. (1981) Modeling Energy Demand for Policy Analysis, Planning Commission, Government of India, New Delhi.

12. Pillai, P. P. (1981) Dynamics of Electricity Supply and Demand in Keralam – A Macro-Econometric Analysis, Agricole publishing Academy, New Delhi.

13. Pillai N. Vijayamohanan (2001) Electricity Demand Analysis and Forecasting – The Tradition is Questioned! Working Paper No. 312, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India.

14. Pindyck, R. S. and Rubinfeld, D. L. (1981) Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 2nd ed., Mc-Graw-Hill.

15. Reddy, Amulya Kumar N. (1990) Wanted Immediately: An Energy Strategy For India (I): DEFENDUS Energy Strategy Offers Hope, Bangalore: http://amulya-reddy.org.in/Publication/nodate_chapter4-020503.pdf

16. Taylor, L. D. (1975) 'The demand for electricity: a survey', Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Vol. 6, No. 1, (Spring).

17. Taylor, L. D. (1977) 'The demand for energy: a survey of price and income elasticities', in William D. Nordhaus (ed.) (1977).

18. World Bank (1979) India: Economic Issues in the Power Sector, A World Bank Country Study, November.