Guncavdi, Oner and Kucukcifci, Suat (2008): Openness to Trade and Structural Changes in the Sources of Economic Growth and Labour Demand in Turkey.
Download (268kB) | Preview
The Turkish economy has undergone drastic structural changes since 1980. While the effects of the Turkish adjustment programme have drawn considerable attention, a few studies have investigated its employment impacts. Unlike neoclassical expectation behind the structural adjustment programme, some studies for Turkey have showed that this policy change in 1980 caused a decline in employment. Results show that the Turkish industrialisation strategy cannot be regarded as export-led industrialisation strategy. Extra output created by exports has been very limited during the post-liberalisation period. However domestic final demand has continued to be the most dominant determinant of output growth. A Surprising result of the paper appears for the period of 1985-1990 when import substitution in final demand created output growth particularly in technology-intensive manufacturing and other manufacturing sectors. However import penetration in final and intermediate goods overwhelmingly important factors creating de-industrialisation in the period of 1990-1996. This paper, however, examines the sources of changes in employment. Despite neoclassical expectations, the reform period after 1982 witnessed large factor substitution against labour, even in the tradable goods sector. Additionally, labour demand also appears to response to output growth less in the post-liberalisation period than before.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Openness to Trade and Structural Changes in the Sources of Economic Growth and Labour Demand in Turkey|
|Keywords:||Structural changes, employment, input-output, trade reform, Turkey|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D57 - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O16 - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Models
|Depositing User:||Oner Guncavdi|
|Date Deposited:||19. Jul 2008 08:26|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 19:58|
Albala-Bertrand, J.M. (1999), “Structural Change in Chile: 1960-90”, Economic System Research 11 (3): 301-319. Baysan, T. and C. Blitzer (1990), “Turkey’s Trade Liberalisation in the 1980s and Prospects for its Sustainability”, in T. Arıcanlı and D. Rodrik (eds.), The Political Economy of Turkey: Debt, Adjustment and Sustainability, pp. 9-36, (London: MacMillan Press). Bilginsoy, C. (1993), “Inflation, growth, and import bottlenecks in the Turkish manufacturing industry”, Journal of Development Economics 42: 111-131. Celasun, M., (1989), “Income Distribution and Employment Aspects of Turkey’s post 1980 Adjustment”, METU Studies on Development 16 (3-4): 1-31. Celasun, M. and D. Rodrik (1989), “Debt, Adjustment and Growth: Turkey”, in J.D. Sachs and S.M. Collins (eds.), Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance: Country Studies-Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Turkey, (Chicago: The university of Chicago Press). Chenery, H., S. Shishido and T. Watanabe (1962), “The Pattern of Japanese Growth 1914-54”, Econometrica 30: 98-131. Feldman, McClain and Palmer (1987), “Sources of Structural Change in the United States 1963-1978: An Input-Output Perspective”, Review of Economics and Statistics 69: 503-510. Günçavdı, Ö. and S. Küçükçifçi (2001), “Foreign Trade and Factor Intensity in an Open Developing Country: An Input-Output Analysis for Turkey”, Russian & East European Finance and Trade 37 (1): 75-88. Günçavdı, Ö., S. Küçükçifçi and A. MacKay (2001), “Adjustment, Stabilisation and the Analysis of the Employment Structure in Turkey: An Input-Output Approach”, Discussion Papers in Management Engineering No. 01/11, (Istanbul: Istanbul Technical University). Günlük-Şenesen, G. (1998), “An Input-Output Analysis of Employment Structure in Turkey: 1973-1990”, Economic Research Forum Conference for Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey Working Paper 9809, Cairo. Gregory, M., B. Zissimos and C. Greenhalgh (2001), “Jobs for the Skilled: How Technology, Trade and Domestic Demand Changed the Structure of UK Employment, 1979-90”, Oxford Economic Papers 53, 20-46. Gregory, M. and C. Greenhalgh (1997), “International Trade, Deindustrialization and Labour Demand: An Input-Output Study for the UK (1979-90)”, in J. Borkakoti and C. Milner (eds.), International Trade and Labour Markets, pp. 62-89, (London: MacMillan Press). Kirkpatrick, C. and Z. Öniş (1991), “Turkey”, in P. Mosley and J. Harrigan and J. Toye (eds.), Aid and Power: The World Bank and Policy-Based Lending, vol. 2, Case Studies, (London: Routledges). Köse, H. A. and E. Yeldan (1996), “On Sectoral Employment and Wage Structure in the Turkish Economy”, Mimo. (in Turkish), Bilkent University, Department of Economics, Ankara. Krueger, A. O. and O. H. Aktan (1992), Swimming Against the Tide: Turkish Trade Reform in the 1980s, (San Francisco: International Centre for Economic Growth). Leontief, V. (1951), The Structure of the American Economy 1919-39: An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis, (New York: Oxford University Press). Martin, J. and J. Evans (1981), “Notes on Measuring the Employment Displacement Effects of Trade by the Accounting Procedure”, Oxford Economic Papers 33 (1): 154-164. Metin-Özcan, K., E. Voyvoda and A. E. Yeldan (2001), “Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1999”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies 22 (1): 219-253. Rodrik, D. (1999), The New Global Economy and Developing Countries: Making Openness Work, Policy Essay No. 24, (Washington, DC: Overseas Development Council). Olgun, H. and S. Togan, (1990), “Trade Liberalisation and the Structure of Protection in Turkey in the 1980s: A Quantitative Analysis”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 127 (1): 152-169. Özar, Ş. (1995), “The Informal Sector in Turkey”, paper presented at ERF Conference, December 1-3, 1995, Aswan, Egypt. State Institute Of Statistics (2002), The Input-Output Structure of the Turkish Economy, (Ankara: SIS). State Institute of Statistics (1998), Household Labour Force Survey Results, (Ankara: SIS). State Planning Organisation (2002), Economic and Social Indicators (Ankara: SPO). Yeldan. E. (2000), “The Impact of Financial Liberalisation and the Rise of Financial Rents on Income Inequality: The Case of Turkey”, Working Papers No. 206, The United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER), November. Yentürk, N. (1997), “Wages, Employment and Accumulation in the Turkish Economy” (in Turkish), Working Papers, (Istanbul: Friedrich Ebert Foundation).