Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg and Dolinskaya, Svetlana (2008): Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy.

Abstract

We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the U.S. There exist strict long-term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro-variables follow up the real GDP. The links between the variables have been valid during the last several decades. All relations were (successfully) tested for cointegration. Statistical estimates are also presented. The relationships allow a reliable prediction of the macroeconomic state at very large (more than 9 years) time horizons.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: US economy, macroeconomic model, real GDP, inflation, unemployment, labor force, productivity, demography
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; D - Microeconomics > D3 - Distribution; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

References

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Kitov, I., (2005a). Modeling the average income dependence on work experience in the USA from 1967 to 2002, Working Papers 11, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

Kitov, I., (2006a). GDP growth rate and population, Working Papers 42, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

Kitov, I., (2006b). Real GDP per capita in developed countries, MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Kitov, I. (2006c). Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA, Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality

Kitov, I., (2006d). Exact prediction of inflation in the USA, MPRA Paper 2735, University Library of Munich, Germany

Kitov, I., (2007a). Modeling the evolution of Gini coefficient for personal incomes in the USA between 1947 and 2005, Working Papers 67, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic.

Kitov, I. (2007b). Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Countries. Chapter 4, pp. 67-112. In. Business Fluctuations and Cycles, Ed. T. Nagakawa, Nova Publishers, New York.

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008a). The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries, Working Papers 90, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008b). Long-term linear trends in consumer price indices, MPRA Paper 6900, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., Dolinskaya, S., (2007a). Modeling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test, MPRA Paper 2739, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., Dolinskaya, S., (2007b). Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA, MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., Dolinskaya, S., (2007c). Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test, MPRA Paper 2736, University Library of Munich, Germany.