Graefe, Andreas and Armstrong, J. Scott (2008): Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies.
Download (187kB) | Preview
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to forecast election outcomes. We make two forecasts of the winner of the popular vote in the U.S. Presidential Election. One is based on voters’ perceptions of how the candidates would deal with issues (problems facing the country) if elected. We show that this approach would have correctly picked the winner for the three elections from 1996 to 2004. The other is based on voters’ preference for policies and their perceptions of which policies the candidates are likely to pursue. Both approaches lead to a forecast that Democrat candidate Barack Obama will win the popular vote.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies|
|Keywords:||forecasting methods, regression models, index method, experience tables, accuracy|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling|
|Depositing User:||Andreas Graefe|
|Date Deposited:||05. Aug 2008 06:08|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 15:01|
Armstrong, J. S. (1985). Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer, New York: John Wiley.
Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Combining Forecasts. In: J. S. Armstrong (Eds.), Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Norwell; Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 417-439.
Armstrong, J. S. & Cuzán, A. G. (2006). Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections, Foresight, 2006, 10-13.
Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R. J. & Wright, M. (2008). Predicting elections from politicians’ faces, Available at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9150/.
Burgess, E. W. (1939). Predicting success or failure in marriage, New York: Prentice-Hall. Cuzán, A. G., Armstrong, J. S. & Jones, R. (2005). The Pollyvote: Applying the Combination Principle in Forecasting to the 2004 Presidential Election, 25th International Symposium on Forecasting.
Cuzán, A. G. & Bundrick, C. M. (2008). Predicting presidential elections with equally-weighted regressors in Fair's equation and the fiscal model, University of West Florida, Available at http://www.uwf.edu/govt/documents/CuzanandBundrick-2008-PredictingPresidentialElections6-23-08.pdf.
Cuzán, A. G. & Heggen, R. J. (1984). A Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1880-1980, Presidential Studies Quarterly, 14, 98-108.
Einhorn, H. J. & Hogarth, R. M. (1975). Unit weighting schemes for decision-making, Organizational Behavior & Human Performance, 13, 171-192.
Fair, R. C. (1978). The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President, Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 159-173.
Glueck, S. & Glueck, E. (1959). Predicting delinquency and crime, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Gough, H. G. (1962). Clinical versus statistical prediction in psychology. In: L. Postman (Eds.), Psychology in the Making. New York; Knopf, pp. 526-584.
Hogarth, R. M. (2006). When simple is hard to accept. In: P. M. Todd & Gigerenzer, G. (Eds.), Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (in press). Oxford; Oxford University Press.
Lichtman, A. J. (2008). The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 301-309.
Petrocik, J. R. (1996). Issue ownership in presidential elections, with a 1980 case study, American Journal of Political Science, 40, 825.
Todorov, A., Mandisodza, A. N., Goren, A. & Hall, C. C. (2005). Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes Science, 308, 1623-1626.
Available Versions of this Item
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 05. Aug 2008 06:08)
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 04. Sep 2008 07:39)
- Forecasting elections from voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle issues. (deposited 24. Mar 2012 23:48)
- Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 04. Sep 2008 07:39)