eprintid: 24819 rev_number: 24 eprint_status: archive userid: 6476 dir: disk0/00/02/48/19 datestamp: 2010-09-07 18:43:13 lastmod: 2019-09-27 04:15:07 status_changed: 2010-09-07 18:43:13 type: paper metadata_visibility: show abstract: The volatility of 19 agricultural commodity prices are examined at monthly and annual frequencies. All of the price series are found to exhibit persistent volatility (periods of relatively high and low volatility). There is also strong evidence of transmission of volatilities across prices. Volatility in oil prices is found to be a significant determinant of volatilities in the majority of series and, likewise, exchange rate volatility is found to be a predictor of volatility in over half the series. There is also strong evidence that stock levels and yields are influencing price volatility. Most series exhibit significant evidence of trends in their volatility. However, these are in a downward direction for some series and in an upward direction for other series. Thus, there is no general finding of long term increases in volatility across most agricultural prices copyrightnote: I certify that I have the right to deposit the contribution with MPRA creators_name: Balcombe, Kelvin creators_id: K.G.Balcombe@reading.ac.uk date: 2009 full_text_status: public identifierabstract: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24819/ institutions: Reading University ispublished: unpub keywords: Volatility, Agricultural Prices language: en referencetext: References J Aizeman and B Pinto (2005) Managing Economic Volatility and Crisis, A practitioners Guide, Cambridge University Press. New York. World Bank (2005). Balcombe K. and Rapsomanikis G (2008). Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Non‐Linear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar‐Ethanol‐Oil Nexus in Brazil. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90 (2) 658-668. Chib C. and E. Greenberg, (1995). Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm. The American Statistician, November, 1995, 49. No 4.: 327-335 Deaton A and Laroque G. (1992) On the behaviour of Commodity Prices. Review of Economic Studies, 59, 1-23. Engle R.F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica. 50,4 987-1006. Engle R.F (1995) . ARCH, Selected Readings. Advanced Texts in Econometrics. Oxford University Press. FAO (2008), Food Outloook, Global Market Analysis. June, http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai466e/ai466e00.HTM Harvey A.C. (1989). Forecasting structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. Lex Oxley, Donald A. R., Colin J., Stuart Sayer (1994) Surveys in Econometrics. Wiley Blackwell. Kenneth Train (2003). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge University Press, 2003 Koop G. (2003) Bayesian Econometrics, Wiley, Sussex, England. subjects: N5 subjects: C22 subjects: C01 subjects: C11 title: The Nature and Determinants of Volatility in Agricultural Prices citation: Balcombe, Kelvin (2009): The Nature and Determinants of Volatility in Agricultural Prices. document_url: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24819/1/MPRA_paper_24819.pdf