?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fmpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de%2F2739%2F&rft.title=Modelling+real+GDP+per+capita+in+the+USA%3A+cointegration+test&rft.creator=Kitov%2C+Ivan&rft.creator=Kitov%2C+Oleg&rft.creator=Dolinskaya%2C+Svetlana&rft.subject=O42+-+Monetary+Growth+Models&rft.subject=E37+-+Forecasting+and+Simulation%3A+Models+and+Applications&rft.subject=C53+-+Forecasting+and+Prediction+Methods+%3B+Simulation+Methods&rft.subject=O51+-+U.S.+%3B+Canada&rft.subject=E32+-+Business+Fluctuations+%3B+Cycles&rft.description=A+two-component+model+for+the+evolution+of+real+GDP+per+capita+in+the+USA+is+presented+and+tested.+The+first+component+of+the+GDP+growth+rate+represents+an+economic+trend+and+is+inversely+proportional+to+the+attained+level+of+real+GDP+per+capita+itself%2C+with+the+nominator+being+constant+through+time.+The+second+component+is+responsible+for+fluctuations+around+the+economic+trend+and+is+defined+as+a+half+of+the+growth+rate+of+the+number+of+9-year-olds.+This+nonlinear+relationship+between+the+growth+rate+of+real+GDP+per+capita+and+the+number+of+9-year-olds+in+the+USA+is+tested+for+cointegration.+For+linearization+of+the+problem%2C+a+predicted+population+time+series+is+calculated+using+the+original+relationship.+Both+single+year+of+age+population+time+series%2C+the+measured+and+predicted+one%2C+are+shown+to+be+integrated+of+order+1+%E2%80%93+the+original+series+have+unit+roots+and+their+first+differences+have+no+unit+root.+The+Engel-Granger+approach+is+applied+to+the+difference+of+the+measured+and+predicted+time+series+and+to+the+residuals+or+corresponding+linear+regression.+Both+tests+show+the+existence+of+a+cointegrating+relation.+The+Johansen+test+results+in+the+cointegrating+rank+1.+Since+a+cointegrating+relation+between+the+measured+and+predicted+number+of+9-year-olds+does+exist%2C+the+VAR%2C+VECM%2C+and+linear+regression+are+used+in+estimation+of+the+goodness+of+fit+and+root+mean-square+errors%2C+RMSE.+The+highest+R2%3D0.95+and+the+best+RMSE+is+obtained+in+the+VAR+representation.+The+VECM+provides+consistent%2C+statistically+reliable%2C+and+significant+estimates+of+the+coefficient+in+the+cointegrating+relation.+Econometrically%2C+the+tests+for+cointegration+show+that+the+deviations+of+real+economic+growth+in+the+USA+from+the+economic+trend%2C+as+defined+by+the+constant+annual+increment+of+real+per+capita+GDP%2C+are+driven+by+the+change+in+the+number+of+9-year-olds.&rft.date=2007&rft.type=MPRA+Paper&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fmpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de%2F2739%2F1%2FMPRA_paper_2739.pdf&rft.identifier=++Kitov%2C+Ivan+and+Kitov%2C+Oleg+and+Dolinskaya%2C+Svetlana++(2007)%3A+Modelling+real+GDP+per+capita+in+the+USA%3A+cointegration+test.++++&rft.language=en