Whither an axis shift: A perspective from Turkey's foreign trade

Mehmet, Babacan (2011): Whither an axis shift: A perspective from Turkey's foreign trade. Published in: Insight Turkey , Vol. 13, No. 1 (January 2011): pp. 129-157.

Abstract

Our analysis will discuss Turkey’s changing direction, if any, in terms of its trade orientation. This paper argues that Turkey’s trade sector has maintained its long-standing direction towards the major European Union (EU) member countries with only minor setbacks, while new dimensions in bilateral trade have emerged not only due to Turkey’s changing foreign policy considerations but also global economic transformations. Moreover, this paper argues that Turkey’s trade partners are subject to these changes, as the epicentre of the global economy shifts, i.e. to the East.

In the first section, a brief introduction with regards to Turkey’s foreign trade under the AK Party’s administration -since 2002 will be provided. The second section will discuss the scope of regional and worldwide changes in trade patterns and analyze the recent shift in Turkey’s trade orientation in the context of Asia’s economic and political rise in early 21st century. The Third section will focus on the role of political dynamics in Turkey’s trade sector and structural issues.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Foregin trade, economic policy
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F59 - Other; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade

References

1. Halil Inalcik, “Capital Formation in the Ottoman Empire,” The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 29, No. 1 (1969), p. 102, cited in Fernand Braudel, Civilization and Capitalism 15th-18th Century, Vol.2 The Wheels of Commerce (London: Phoenix Press, 2002), p. 558.

2. “Turkey’s Export Development,” Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade Report, 2009.

3. Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade, 2009 Annual Foreign Trade Report.

4. Meliha Benli Altunışık, “Turkey: Arab Perspectives,” TESEV Foreign Policy Analysis Series 11 (May, 2010), p. 9, retrieved from http://www.tesev.org.tr/UD_OBJS/PDF/DPT/OD/YYN/Arab- PerspectivesRapWeb.pdf.

5. UNCTAD and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, 2010.

6. Rahimullah Yusufzai, “A ‘shift of axis’ by Turkey?” The News International, Peshawar, June 22, 2010, retrieved from http://www.pkcolumns.com/2010/06/22/a-shift-of-axis-by-turkey-by-rahimullah-yusufzai/.

7. Nuh Yılmaz, “Mahalle Baskısı Olarak Eksen Kayması,” USA Sabah Daily, SETA Commentary, September 22, 2010, retrieved from http://www.setav.org/public/HaberDetay. aspx?Dil=tr&hid=48440.

8. See Nuh Yılmaz, “Değer Eksenli Realist Dış Politika ve Eksen Kayması,” Anlayış, SETA Commentary, November 2009, retrieved from http://www.setav.org/public/HaberDetay. aspx?Dil=tr&hid=5486.

9. Mensur Akgün, “Turkey: what axis shift?” Le Monde diplomatique English edition Blog Posts, July 9, 2010, retrieved from http://mondediplo.com/blogs/turkey-what-axis-shift.

10. Mehmet Babacan, “Whither Axis Shift: A Perspective from Turkey’s Foreign Trade,” SETA Policy Report, No. 4, November 2010, pp. 1-36, retrieved from http://www.setav.org/Ups/dosya/53018.pdf.

11. UNCTAD World Investment Report, 2010 and China Investment Promotion Agency of Ministry of Commerce (CIPA).

12. World Trade Organization (WTO), 2009, www.wto.org.

13. UNCTAD World Investment Report, 2010 and Bloomberg.

14. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2010, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ ft/weo/2010/02/index.htm.

15. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2010, Statistical Appendix, Table B16, p. 21.

16. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2010, Statistical Appendix, Table A8, p. 191.

17. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2010, Statistical Appendix, Table A16, p. 204.

18. Sally McNamara, Ariel Cohen and James Phillips, “Countering Turkey’s Strategic Drift,” The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2442, July 26, 2010, p. 14, retrieved from http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/bg2442.pdf.

19. McNamara et al, “Countering Turkey’s Strategic Drift,” p. 14.

20. For arguments of the defense of the customs union between the EU and Turkey, See Sinan Ülgen and Yiannis Zahariadis, “The Future of Turkish-EU Trade Relations: Deepening vs. Widening,” Centre for European Policy Studies and the Economics and Foreign Policy Forum, EU-Turkey Working Papers No. 5, August 2004, p. 30.

21. Ayşegül Dinççağ-Ümit Özlale, “Export Losses in EU markets,” TEPAV Policy Note, July 2010, p. 3, http://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/1284637561-9.Export_Losses_in_the_EU_Market.pdf.

22. Turkish Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade, 2009.

23. Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, www.mfa.gov.tr.

24. “A Note on Turkey’s Free Trade Agreements,” Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade, 2009.

25. See Jeffrey A. Frankel and David Romer, “Does Trade Cause Growth?” The American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 3 (1999), pp. 379-399.

26. Mehmet Babacan, “Whither Axis Shift: A Perspective from Turkey’s Foreign Trade”, SETA Policy Report, No. 4, November 2010, pp. 1-36, retrieved from http://www.setav.org/Ups/dosya/53018.pdf.

27. Ahmet Davutoglu, Stratejik Derinlik (İstanbul: Küre Publications, 2001), p. 336.

28. Ibid, p. 513.

29. Ahmet Davutoglu, “Turkey’s Foreign Policy Vision: An Assessment of 2007,” Insight Turkey, Vol. 10, No. 1 (2008), p. 78.

30. Ibid, pp. 83.

31. Turkish Airlines, www.turkishairlines.com.

32. Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade, 2009 Annual Foreign Trade Report.

33. Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman, Interest Groups and Trade Policy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002, pp. 173-198.

34. Robert C. Feenstra, Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004.