Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections

Cassette, Aurélie and Farvaque, Etienne and Héricourt, Jérôme (2011): Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections.

Abstract

Using a new database of French municipalities that covers 821 towns and 2 elections (2001 and 2008), we examine how the budget structure, degree of electoral competition and the economic context affect the share of votes for the incumbent. We assess the specicities created by the two-round process under French electoral rule (a dual ballot under plurality rule). We show that in the first round of the electoral process, spending on equipment can influence the voter, and that electoral competition has a strong impact on the incumbent's score. In the second round, the incumbent's vote is affected more by national considerations and local budget variables have no effect. We show that the dynamics between the first and the second rounds are intense. The results suggest that the determinants of each round in a two-round electoral process are different.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Economic voting; Local elections; Plurality rule; Visible expenditures
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H72 - State and Local Budget and Expenditures; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H76 - State and Local Government: Other Expenditure Categories

References

Aidt, T. S., Veiga, L. G., & Veiga, F. J. (2011). Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model. Public Choice, 148, 21-44.

Akhmedov, A., & Zhuravskaya, E. (2004). Opportunistic political cycles: test in a young democracy setting. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 1301-1338.

Alesina, A., & Cukierman, A. (1990). The politics of ambiguity. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105, 829-850.

Auberger, A. (2004). Les fonctions de vote : un survol de la littérature. Actualité Economique, 80, 95-107.

Auberger, A., & Dubois, E. (2005). The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections. Public Choice, 125, 363-383.

Bartels, L. M., & Brady, H. E. (2003). Economic behavior in political context. American Economic Review, 93, 156-161.

Besley, T., & Case, A. (1995). Incumbent behavior: vote seeking, tax setting and yardstick competition. American Economic Review, 85, 25- 45.

Blais, A., Lachat, R., Hino, A., & Doray-Demers, P. (2011). The mechanical and psychological effects of electoral systems: a quasi-experimental study. Comparative Political Studies, 44, doi:10.1177/0010414011407472.

Blais, A., Labbé-St-Vincent, S., Laslier, J.-F., Sauger, N., & Van Der Straeten, K. (2010). Strategic vote choice in one-round and two-round elections: an experimental study. Political Research Quarterly, doi:10.1177/1065912909358583.

Blundell, R., & Costa Dias, M. (2000). Evaluation methods for non-experimental data. Fiscal Studies, 21, 427-468.

Bordignon, M., Nannicini, T., & Tabellini, G. (2010, forthcoming). Moderating political extremism: single round vs. run-off elections under plurality rule. Review of Economic Studies.

Brender, A. (2003). The effect of fiscal performance on local government election results in Israel: 1989-1998. Journal of Public Economics, 87, 2187-2205.

Brender, A., & Drazen, A. (2008). How do budget deficits and economic growth affect reelection prospects? Evidence from a large panel of countries. American Economic Review, 98, 2203-2220.

Cameron, A., & Trivedi, P. (2005). Microeconometrics methods and applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Campbell, A., Converse, Ph. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1960). The American voter. Wiley.

Cautrès, B. (2004). Old wine in new bottles? New wine in old bottles? Class, religion and vote in the French electorate. The 2002 elections in time perspective. in M.S. Lewis-Beck (ed.), The French voter: before and after the 2002 elections. Hampshire, UK: Palgrave MacMillan, 74-92.

Degan, A., & Merlo, A. (2009). Do voters vote ideologically?. Journal of Economic Theory, 144, 1868-1894. Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York.

Drazen, A., & Eslava, M. (2010). Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 92, 39-52.

Dubois, E. (2007). Les déterminants économiques du vote 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France. Revue d'Economie Politique, 117, 243-270.

Dubois, E., & Paty, S. (2010). Yardstick competition among French cities: Which neighbours matter? Annals of Regional Science, 44, 433-452.

Eslava, M. (2010). The political economy of fiscal deficits: a survey. Journal of Economic Surveys, 25, 645-673.

Fauvelle-Aymar, C., & François, A. (2006). The impact of closeness on turnout: an empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot. Public Choice, 127, 469-491.

Ferreira, F., & Gyourko, J. (2009). Do political parties matter? Evidence from U.S. cities. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124, 399-422.

Foucault, M., Madies, Th., & Paty, S. (2008). Public spending interactions and local politics. Empirical evidence from French municipalities. Public Choice, 137, 57-80.

Froot, K.A. (1989). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity in financial data. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24, 333-355.

Gerber, E. R., & Hopkins, D. J. (2011). When mayors matter: estimating the impact of mayoral partisanship on city policy. American Journal of Political Science, 55, 326-339.

Gougou, F. (2008). The 2008 French municipal elections. The opening and the sanction. French Politics, 6, 395-406.

Greene, W. (2008). Econometric Analysis. 6th edition, Prentice Hall.

Grynaviski, J. D. (2010). Partisan bonds. Political reputations and legislative accountability. Cambridge University Press.

Gujarati, D. (2004). Basic econometrics. 4th edition, The McGraw-Hill Company.

Harrington, J. Jr. (1993). Economic policy, economic performance, and elections. American Economic Review, 83, 27-42.

Hibbs, D. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy. American Political Science Review, 71, 1467-1487.

Jérôme-Speziari, V., & Jérôme, B. (2002). Les municipales de mars 2001 : vote récompense ou vote sanction ? Revue Française de Science Politique, 52, 251-272.

Kamakura, W. A, Mazzon, J. A., & Debruyn, A. (2006). 'Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 689-706.

Kayser, M. A., & Wlezien, C. (2011). Performance pressure: Patterns of partisanship and the economic vote. European Journal of Political Research, 50, 365-394.

Key, V.O Jr. (1966). The responsible electorate: rationality in presidential voting. Harvard University Press.

Kneebone, R., & McKenzie, K. (2001). Electoral and partisan cycles in fiscal policy: an examination of Canadian provinces. International Tax and Public Finance, 8, 753-774.

Kramer, G. H. (1971). Short term fluctuations in US voting behavior, 1896-1964. American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143.

Lewis-Beck, M., Jacoby, W. G., Norpoth, H., & Weisberg, H. F. (2008). The American voter revisited. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor.

Martin, P. (1996). Existe-t-il en France un cycle électoral municipal ? Revue Française de Science Politique, 46, 961-995.

Martins, R., & Veiga, F.J. (2011). Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections. Public Choice, doi: 10.1007/s11127-011-9849-0.

Moulton, B. (1986). Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates. Journal of Econometrics, 32, 385-397.

Moulton, B. (1990). An illustration of a pitfall in estimating the effects of aggregate variables on micro units. Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, 334-338.

Norris, P., & Reif, K. (1997). Second-order elections. European Journal of Political Research, 31, 109-124.

Peltzman, S. (1987). Economic conditions and Gubernatorial elections. American Economic Review, 77, 293-297.

Powell, G. B. Jr., & Whitten, G. D. (1993). A cross-national analysis of economic voting: taking account of the political context. American Journal of Political Science, 37, 391-414.

Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second-order national elections. A conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8, 3-44.

Sakurai, S. N., & Menezes-Filho, N. A. (2008). Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities. Public Choice, 137, 301-314.

Swank, O. H. (1993). Popularity functions based on partisan theory. Public Choice, 75, 339-356.

Veiga, L. G., & Veiga, F. J. (2007). The determinants of vote intentions in Portugal. Public Choice, 118, 341-364.

Vella, F., & Verbeek, M. (1999). Estimating and interpreting models with endogenous treatment effects. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 17, 473-478.

Winship, C., & Mare, D. (1992). Models for sample selection bias. Annual Review of Sociology, 18, 327-350.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.