2024-03-29T02:21:56Z
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/cgi/oai2
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:229
2019-09-29T13:12:10Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4A:4A33
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D4A:4A33:4A3331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/229/
Wage Mobility in Europe. A Comparative Analysis Using restricted Multinomial Logit Regression
Pavlopoulos, Dimitris
Muffels, Ruud
Vermunt, Jeroen-K.
J3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
C19 - Other
J31 - Wage Level and Structure ; Wage Differentials
In this paper, we investigate cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe
using the European Community Household Panel. The paper is particularly focused
on examining the impact of economic conditions, welfare state regimes and
employment regulation on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear approach that is very
much similar to a restricted multinomial logit model and much more flexible than the
standard probit approach. It appears that regime, economic conditions and
employment regulation explain a substantial part of the cross-country variation. The
findings also confirm the existence of an inverse U-shape pattern of wage mobility,
showing a great deal of low and high-wage persistence in all countries.
2005-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/229/1/MPRA_paper_229.pdf
Pavlopoulos, Dimitris and Muffels, Ruud and Vermunt, Jeroen-K. (2005): Wage Mobility in Europe. A Comparative Analysis Using restricted Multinomial Logit Regression. Published in: OSA-Working paper WP2005-24
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2076
2019-09-28T00:36:40Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2076/
Discrimination between deterministic trend and stochastic trend processes
Caiado, Jorge
Crato, Nuno
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
C19 - Other
Most of economic and financial time series have a nonstationary behavior. There are different types of nonstationary processes, such as those with stochastic trend and those with deterministic trend. In practice, it can be quite difficult to distinguish between the two processes. In this paper, we compare random walk and determinist trend processes using sample autocorrelation, sample partial autocorrelation and periodogram based metrics.
2005
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2076/1/MPRA_paper_2076.pdf
Caiado, Jorge and Crato, Nuno (2005): Discrimination between deterministic trend and stochastic trend processes. Published in: Proceedings of the XIth International Conference on Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis : pp. 1419-1424.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2970
2019-10-02T04:30:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2970/
Generalization of regression analysis to the spatial context
Mishra, SK
C19 - Other
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
Our day-to-day experience suggests that certain variables are local in their effects. The influence of such variables is limited within the boundaries of the spatial entity (district) where they are physically located. In contrast, the effects of some other variables are percolating or pervasive in nature. They permeate through the district boundaries or sometimes grossly transcend the local borders. The intensity of influence of such variable often decreases with an increase in the distance traversed, although the rate of such decay may be slow or rapid. Therefore, the value of the dependent variable observed in the one district may be influenced by the value of an explanatory variable in the other district.
In the spatial context, therefore, contiguity (interactivity or connectedness) is very important. In the real world, ‘connectedness’ (interactivity or contiguity) is not a simple binary relationship that may capture the openness of the spatial entities to each other. One may discriminate among the instances of ‘interactivity’ or ‘connectedness’ arising due to common vertex and common boundary segments of different magnitudes. There can be several other criteria to measure ‘interactivity’ or ‘connectedness.’
Conventionally variance is visualized as the expectation of (squared) deviations of the individual variate values from the mean value of the variate. Similarly, covariance (of any two variates) is visualized as the expectation of the product of deviations of the variates concerned from their respective mean values. However, variance may also be considered as the expectation of squared deviations of each individual observation from the other individual observations rather than from its own mean. Covariance also may be viewed analogously. This view provides a basis to generalize the conventional regression analysis to the spatial context. A Fortran computer program is also provided.
2004-04-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2970/1/MPRA_paper_2970.pdf
Mishra, SK (2004): Generalization of regression analysis to the spatial context.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7618
2019-09-27T13:20:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463533
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7618/
THE PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS APPROACH TO QUOTA FORMULATION AT THE IMF
Nguéma-Affane, Thierry
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations
C19 - Other
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
This paper explores and supports the use of the principal components analysis to objectively establish countries’ relative economic size and determine variables’ weights in a new IMF quota formula. This approach shows a rebalancing of quotas shares in favor of developing countries over time but suggests that PCA-generated quota formulas can only guide and not determine IMF quota structure. The simulation of ad hoc quota increases using PCA-generated quota formulas indicates that a rebalancing of actual quota shares and voting power in favor of developing countries, while preserving low-income countries voting share, is achievable if advanced economies forego increases in their quotas and total basic votes are at least tripled.
2008-03-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7618/1/MPRA_paper_7618.pdf
Nguéma-Affane, Thierry (2008): THE PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS APPROACH TO QUOTA FORMULATION AT THE IMF.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8692
2019-09-27T08:12:09Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433134
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8692/
Decimalization, Realized Volatility, and Market Microstructure Noise
Vuorenmaa, Tommi A.
C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C19 - Other
This paper studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. We apply several non-parametric estimators in order to accurately measure volatility and market microstructure noise variance before and after the final stage of decimalization which, on the NYSE, took place in January, 2001. We find that decimalization decreased observed volatility by decreasing noise variance and, consequently, increased the significance of the true signal especially in the trade price data for the high-activity stocks. In general, however, most of the found increase in the signal-to-noise ratio is explainable by confounding and random effects. We also find that although allowing for dependent noise can matter pointwisely, it does not appear to be critical in our case where the estimates are averaged over time and across stocks. For that same reason rare random jumps are not critical either. It is more important to choose a proper data type and prefilter the data carefully.
2008-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8692/1/MPRA_paper_8692.pdf
Vuorenmaa, Tommi A. (2008): Decimalization, Realized Volatility, and Market Microstructure Noise.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10108
2019-09-27T18:44:22Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463532
7375626A656374733D46:4630
7375626A656374733D51:5133:513333
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31
7375626A656374733D51:5133:513338
7375626A656374733D4E:4E35:4E3535
7375626A656374733D48:4835:483536
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D59:5931
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463539
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D48:4832
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
7375626A656374733D51:5134
7375626A656374733D51:5133:513334
7375626A656374733D4E:4E35:4E3530
7375626A656374733D51:5133:513332
7375626A656374733D4C:4C37:4C3731
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463335
7375626A656374733D4C:4C37:4C3738
7375626A656374733D4F:4F32
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D48:4831:483130
7375626A656374733D4E:4E35:4E3534
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463530
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413133
7375626A656374733D4C:4C31:4C3133
7375626A656374733D4C:4C33
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3537
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463533
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10108/
Being rich in energy resources – a blessing or a curse
Schubert, Samuel R.
F52 - National Security ; Economic Nationalism
F0 - General
Q33 - Resource Booms
O1 - Economic Development
Q38 - Government Policy
N55 - Asia including Middle East
H56 - National Security and War
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
Y1 - Data: Tables and Charts
F59 - Other
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
Q4 - Energy
Q34 - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
N50 - General, International, or Comparative
Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
L71 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
C19 - Other
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F35 - Foreign Aid
L78 - Government Policy
O2 - Development Planning and Policy
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
H10 - General
N54 - Europe: 1913-
F50 - General
A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values
L13 - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
L3 - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise
O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
“Being rich in energy resources – a blessing or a curse” finds that an energy resource curse plagues many
EU supplier states. This in turn directly affects Europe’s energy supply security and threatens to engulf
Europe in unwanted hostilities at home and abroad. The study addresses seven issues including the
evidence suggesting that a curse exists among Europe’s external energy suppliers, active programs to
limit that risk, the significance of economic diversification, the applicability of dividend programs, the
link between corruption and security of energy supplies, additional possible actions of the Union, and
further threats posed by resource cursed countries. It establishes a definitive links between corruption
and supply security, poor transparency, and inequality, and proves that a low level of economic
diversification is a reliable indicator for the existence of the curse. It also finds that there are examples of
excellence in recovering from and even converting the curse to a blessing. In looking at the policy
instruments available to the Union, the study determines that the Union does have the technical expertise
and financial means to restructure political and economic systems and strengthen public administrations
and institutions and found that Europe’s successful implementation of similar past programs could be
taken, at least in part, as models for future efforts. Finally, the study recommends the controversial
approach of conditionality in the use of aid and finds that the Union should legislate standards for the
reporting and auditing of energy exports and imports at home and abroad.
2007-01-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10108/1/MPRA_paper_10108.pdf
Schubert, Samuel R. (2007): Being rich in energy resources – a blessing or a curse. Published in: EP Policy Department Studies , Vol. 614, No. 386 (31 January 2007): pp. 1-60.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10734
2019-09-26T15:03:55Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4D:4D30
7375626A656374733D4D:4D33:4D3331
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10734/
Segmentation for path models and unobserved heterogeneity: The finite mixture partial least squares approach
Ringle, Christian M.
M0 - General
M31 - Marketing
C19 - Other
Partial least squares-based path modeling with latent variables is a methodology that allows to estimate complex cause-effect relationships using empirical data. The assumption that the data is collected from a single homogeneous population is often unrealistic. Identification of different groups of consumers in connection with estimates in the inner path model constitutes a critical issue for applying the path modeling methodology to form effective marketing strategies. Sequential clustering strategies often fail to provide useful results for segment-specific partial least squares analyses. For that reason, the purpose of this paper is fourfold. First, it presents a finite mixture path modeling methodology for separating data based on the heterogeneity of estimates in the inner path model, as it is implemented in a software application for statistical computation. This new approach permits reliable identification of distinctive customer segments with their characteristic estimates for relationships of latent variables in the structural model. Second, it presents an application of the approach to two numerical examples, using experimental and empirical data, as a means of verifying the methodology's usefulness for multigroup path analyses in marketing research. Third, it analyses the advantages of finite mixture partial least squares to a sequential clustering strategy. Fourth, the initial application and critical review of the new segmentation technique for partial least squares path modeling allows us to unveil and discuss some of the technique's problematic aspects and to address significant areas of future research.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10734/1/MPRA_paper_10734.pdf
Ringle, Christian M. (2006): Segmentation for path models and unobserved heterogeneity: The finite mixture partial least squares approach. Published in: University of Hamburg: Research Papers on Marketing and Retailing No. 35 (November 2006)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13069
2019-09-27T07:22:26Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473138
7375626A656374733D44:4437:443738
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13069/
Composite and decomposable indicators for evaluating RIA systems in practice: proposals for discussion and testing
de Panizza, Andrea
G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
D78 - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
C19 - Other
This paper proposes a first attempt for the development of a statistical tool where basic measures and/or tests (i.e. individual indicators) are organised and grouped in composite indices addressing different dimensions within Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA). The latter can be variously combined, resulting also in more general, synthetic indicators, preserving the components’ constituent elements. Due to current limitations in information availability, weights for aggregation are left undetermined in practice; the same reason impacts on selection of elementary indicators and the shape of composites, so that appropriate methodologies ought to be applied to get to a fully operational stage. A derived frame is also proposed, limited to a monetary perspective on the overall performance of RIA national systems, by means of a handful of key indicators which are less dependent on issues of aggregation
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13069/1/MPRA_paper_13069.pdf
de Panizza, Andrea (2007): Composite and decomposable indicators for evaluating RIA systems in practice: proposals for discussion and testing. Published in: ENBR working papers , Vol. 2007, No. 9 (2007): pp. 1-21.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:15320
2019-10-07T11:20:04Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433439
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15320/
Fehlende Werte in SAS 6.12, US-Version
Fliers, Frits
C10 - General
C19 - Other
C49 - Other
Evaluating the treatment of missing values by SAS 6.12, the first target group is considered to be an uninitiated person like a physician who is doing his first real research in the frame of his doctoral thesis. Such a physician will easily come to wrong conclusions as the treatment of missing values by SAS is not uniform. In one SAS-scenario, data records with missing fields will be eliminated. In a second case, plausible data field content is being generated and inserted. In the third case, the number of records with missing data fields will be shown.
The second target group consists of specialists with a Masters degree in Public Health or Statistics. If you study the documentation extensively and thoroughly, use the help-functions and www.sas.com, you may explore how SAS treats missing data fields in your case, and you will be able to arrive at valid conclusions.
1999-06-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15320/1/MPRA_paper_15320.pdf
Fliers, Frits (1999): Fehlende Werte in SAS 6.12, US-Version.
de
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18771
2019-10-03T13:07:45Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D4A:4A32:4A3231
7375626A656374733D4A:4A30:4A3030
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18771/
Влияние Трудовой Эмиграции на Рынок Труда в Латвии
Skribans, Valerijs
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
C02 - Mathematical Methods
J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J00 - General
C19 - Other
C01 - Econometrics
After entering the European Union (EU) Latvia faced new possibilities in international labor market. In 2004 several member states opened their labor markets to workers from Latvia. The largest amount of labor force went to Ireland, Great Britain and Sweden. In these countries salaries were substantially higher than in Latvia, which contributed to labor migration from Latvia. The migration process has a significant influence on the labor market in Latvia: on the one hand it reduced the amount of unemployed, but, on the other hand, it caused workforce deficit in certain professions, as well as substantially influenced the level of salaries in the whole economy. These processes will also influence the future development of Latvia; therefore the research of these issues is very topical for Latvia. It is also important internationally, because in other countries, especially in the new EU member states, similar processes take place, and it is possible to elaborate a common EU labor force migration model by consolidating migration data of particular member states. Common EU labor force migration model would also be suitable for developed EU member states, in order to estimate the incoming flow of labor force and its influence on the development of national economy.
Aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of labor migration on the labor market in Latvia. In order to reach the aim, several tasks are set: to determine and to investigate the factors influencing labor market and labor migration; to consolidate influencing factors in a common system and to form labor market and labor migration system dynamic explanatory and forecasting model, based on it; to forecast the most important parameters of labor migration and labor market in Latvia.
This paper shows system dynamic model of labor market and labor migration in Latvia. The hypothesis of the research is: labor migration is determined primarily by the payment level in the countries under consideration and the indicator derived from it – payment differences in the countries compared; as well as employment level, unemployment level, number of work places (market capacity) and number of vacant work places. Secondary factors influencing migration may be costs connected with labor migration, formal legal barriers to migration and personal propensity to migrate. Statistics on the labor market in Latvia are not complete; there is also no common view of experts on determinant processes. In such circumstances market forecasting with quantitative methods is problematic. One approach is to simulate indicators and to estimate their influence on national economy. The model has three parts: growth (expansion) of labor force, division and migration sub models. The sub model for growth of labor force is based on division of population in various categories during transition to a working age population. Division by level of education is further used in labor market analysis in which worker groups are formed according to the education level.
The paper represents mutual interaction of groups of workers as well as labor migration. The results show sensitivity of the model factors to propensity of personnel for labor migration. The elaborated model and the results represented in this paper show that separate processes in national economy such as employment, unemployment and wages can be connected not with economic situation, but with the equalization processes in the EU. Under these circumstances it could be inefficient to fight with the increase of wages in Latvia, also to decrease wages, because in the long-term it can cause more severe problems in the development of national economy.
2009-10-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18771/1/MPRA_paper_18771.pdf
Skribans, Valerijs (2009): Влияние Трудовой Эмиграции на Рынок Труда в Латвии. Published in: Economics and Management: Current Issues and Perspectives , Vol. 15, No. 2 (19 November 2009): pp. 250-258.
ru
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21557
2019-09-27T17:44:17Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D4A:4A32:4A3231
7375626A656374733D4A:4A30:4A3030
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21557/
Влияние Трудовой Эмиграции на Рынок Труда в Латвии
Skribans, Valerijs
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
C02 - Mathematical Methods
J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J00 - General
C19 - Other
C01 - Econometrics
After entering the European Union (EU) Latvia faced new possibilities in international labor market. In 2004 several member states opened their labor markets to workers from Latvia. The largest amount of labor force went to Ireland, Great Britain and Sweden. In these countries salaries were substantially higher than in Latvia, which contributed to labor migration from Latvia. The migration process has a significant influence on the labor market in Latvia: on the one hand it reduced the amount of unemployed, but, on the other hand, it caused workforce deficit in certain professions, as well as substantially influenced the level of salaries in the whole economy. These processes will also influence the future development of Latvia; therefore the research of these issues is very topical for Latvia. It is also important internationally, because in other countries, especially in the new EU member states, similar processes take place, and it is possible to elaborate a common EU labor force migration model by consolidating migration data of particular member states. Common EU labor force migration model would also be suitable for developed EU member states, in order to estimate the incoming flow of labor force and its influence on the development of national economy.
Aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of labor migration on the labor market in Latvia. In order to reach the aim, several tasks are set: to determine and to investigate the factors influencing labor market and labor migration; to consolidate influencing factors in a common system and to form labor market and labor migration system dynamic explanatory and forecasting model, based on it; to forecast the most important parameters of labor migration and labor market in Latvia.
This paper shows system dynamic model of labor market and labor migration in Latvia. The hypothesis of the research is: labor migration is determined primarily by the payment level in the countries under consideration and the indicator derived from it – payment differences in the countries compared; as well as employment level, unemployment level, number of work places (market capacity) and number of vacant work places. Secondary factors influencing migration may be costs connected with labor migration, formal legal barriers to migration and personal propensity to migrate. Statistics on the labor market in Latvia are not complete; there is also no common view of experts on determinant processes. In such circumstances market forecasting with quantitative methods is problematic. One approach is to simulate indicators and to estimate their influence on national economy. The model has three parts: growth (expansion) of labor force, division and migration sub models. The sub model for growth of labor force is based on division of population in various categories during transition to a working age population. Division by level of education is further used in labor market analysis in which worker groups are formed according to the education level.
The paper represents mutual interaction of groups of workers as well as labor migration. The results show sensitivity of the model factors to propensity of personnel for labor migration. The elaborated model and the results represented in this paper show that separate processes in national economy such as employment, unemployment and wages can be connected not with economic situation, but with the equalization processes in the EU. Under these circumstances it could be inefficient to fight with the increase of wages in Latvia, also to decrease wages, because in the long-term it can cause more severe problems in the development of national economy.
2009-10-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21557/1/MPRA_paper_21557.pdf
Skribans, Valerijs (2009): Влияние Трудовой Эмиграции на Рынок Труда в Латвии. Published in: Economics and Management: Current Issues and Perspectives , Vol. 15, No. 2 (19 November 2009): pp. 250-258.
ru
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21709
2019-09-29T07:01:02Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D4A:4A32:4A3231
7375626A656374733D4A:4A30:4A3030
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21709/
Влияние Трудовой Эмиграции на Рынок Труда в Латвии
Skribans, Valerijs
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
C02 - Mathematical Methods
J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J00 - General
C19 - Other
C01 - Econometrics
After entering the European Union (EU) Latvia faced new possibilities in international labor market. In 2004 several member states opened their labor markets to workers from Latvia. The largest amount of labor force went to Ireland, Great Britain and Sweden. In these countries salaries were substantially higher than in Latvia, which contributed to labor migration from Latvia. The migration process has a significant influence on the labor market in Latvia: on the one hand it reduced the amount of unemployed, but, on the other hand, it caused workforce deficit in certain professions, as well as substantially influenced the level of salaries in the whole economy. These processes will also influence the future development of Latvia; therefore the research of these issues is very topical for Latvia. It is also important internationally, because in other countries, especially in the new EU member states, similar processes take place, and it is possible to elaborate a common EU labor force migration model by consolidating migration data of particular member states. Common EU labor force migration model would also be suitable for developed EU member states, in order to estimate the incoming flow of labor force and its influence on the development of national economy.
Aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of labor migration on the labor market in Latvia. In order to reach the aim, several tasks are set: to determine and to investigate the factors influencing labor market and labor migration; to consolidate influencing factors in a common system and to form labor market and labor migration system dynamic explanatory and forecasting model, based on it; to forecast the most important parameters of labor migration and labor market in Latvia.
This paper shows system dynamic model of labor market and labor migration in Latvia. The hypothesis of the research is: labor migration is determined primarily by the payment level in the countries under consideration and the indicator derived from it – payment differences in the countries compared; as well as employment level, unemployment level, number of work places (market capacity) and number of vacant work places. Secondary factors influencing migration may be costs connected with labor migration, formal legal barriers to migration and personal propensity to migrate. Statistics on the labor market in Latvia are not complete; there is also no common view of experts on determinant processes. In such circumstances market forecasting with quantitative methods is problematic. One approach is to simulate indicators and to estimate their influence on national economy. The model has three parts: growth (expansion) of labor force, division and migration sub models. The sub model for growth of labor force is based on division of population in various categories during transition to a working age population. Division by level of education is further used in labor market analysis in which worker groups are formed according to the education level.
The paper represents mutual interaction of groups of workers as well as labor migration. The results show sensitivity of the model factors to propensity of personnel for labor migration. The elaborated model and the results represented in this paper show that separate processes in national economy such as employment, unemployment and wages can be connected not with economic situation, but with the equalization processes in the EU. Under these circumstances it could be inefficient to fight with the increase of wages in Latvia, also to decrease wages, because in the long-term it can cause more severe problems in the development of national economy.
2009-10-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21709/1/MPRA_paper_21709.pdf
Skribans, Valerijs (2009): Влияние Трудовой Эмиграции на Рынок Труда в Латвии. Published in: Economics and Management: Current Issues and Perspectives , Vol. 15, No. 2 (19 November 2009): pp. 250-258.
ru
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24224
2019-09-27T16:34:13Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4430
7375626A656374733D49:4932:493233
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24224/
University departments evaluation: a multivariate approach
Monacciani, Fabiana
D0 - General
I23 - Higher Education ; Research Institutions
C19 - Other
Aim of the paper is to present a new model, based on multivariate statistic analyses, allowing to express a synthetic judgement on Departments activities by taking into consideration the whole set of indicators describing them both as aggregations of researchers and as University autonomous organs.
The model, based on Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis, allows both to explain the determinants of Departments performances, and to classify them into homogeneous groups.
The paper shows the results obtained by testing the proposed model on University of Naples “L’Orientale” Departments, using data extracted by the 2007 assessment report to the Ministry of University and Research.
2010-04-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24224/1/MPRA_paper_24224.pdf
Monacciani, Fabiana (2010): University departments evaluation: a multivariate approach.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26405
2019-10-06T16:31:33Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4339:433930
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D44:4438:443835
7375626A656374733D48:4837:483730
7375626A656374733D44:4437:443731
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433738
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433635
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D48:4838:483833
7375626A656374733D44:4437:443732
7375626A656374733D44:4437:443738
7375626A656374733D44:4438:443833
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413134
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26405/
Some Inquiries to Spontaneous Opinions: A case with Twitter in Indonesia
Maulana, Ardian
Situngkir, Hokky
C90 - General
C19 - Other
D85 - Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
H70 - General
D71 - Social Choice ; Clubs ; Committees ; Associations
C78 - Bargaining Theory ; Matching Theory
C65 - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
C02 - Mathematical Methods
H83 - Public Administration ; Public Sector Accounting and Audits
D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D78 - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief ; Unawareness
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
A14 - Sociology of Economics
The paper discusses opportunities to utilize the series of micro-blogs as provided by the Twitter in observation of opinion dynamics. The spontaneity of tweets is more, as the service is attached more to the mobile communications. The extraction of information in the series of tweets is demonstrated as in conceptual map and mention map. From the latter, the social network stylized properties, i.e.: power law distribution is shown. The exemplification of the methodology is on the 82nd commemoration of Indonesian Youth Pledge and the participatory movement of Indonesian capitol city, Jakarta.
2010-10-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26405/1/MPRA_paper_26405.pdf
Maulana, Ardian and Situngkir, Hokky (2010): Some Inquiries to Spontaneous Opinions: A case with Twitter in Indonesia. Published in: BFI Working Paper Series No. WP-10-2010 (2 November 2010)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:27313
2019-09-26T08:51:51Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433838
7375626A656374733D4C:4C31:4C3130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433439
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433839
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463138
7375626A656374733D44:4437:443730
7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3330
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453137
7375626A656374733D44:4438:443830
7375626A656374733D4D:4D32:4D3231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27313/
Business intelligence as the support of decision-making processes in e-commerce systems environment
Suchánek, Petr
Slaninova, Kateřina
Bucki, Robert
C88 - Other Computer Software
L10 - General
C19 - Other
C49 - Other
C89 - Other
F18 - Trade and Environment
D70 - General
O30 - General
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D80 - General
M21 - Business Economics
The present state of world economy urges managers to look for new methods, which can help to start the economic growth. To achieve this goal, managers use standard as well as new procedures. The fundamental prerequisite of the efficient decision-making processes are actual and right information. Managers need to monitor past information and current actual information to generate trends of future development based on it. Managers always should define strictly what do they want to know, how do they want to see it and for what purpose do they want to use it. Only in this case they can get right information applicable to efficient decision-making. Generally, managers´ decisions should lead to make the customers´ decision-making process easier. More frequently than ever, companies use e-commerce systems for the support of their business activities. In connection with the present state and future development, cross-border online shopping growth can be expected. To support this, companies will need much better systems providing the managers adequate and sufficient information. This type of information, which is usually multidimensional, can be provided by the Business Intelligence (BI) technologies. Besides special BI systems, some of BI technologies are obtained in quite a few of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) systems. One of the crucial questions is whether should companies and firms buy or develop special BI software, or whether they can use BI tools contained in some ERP systems. In respect of this, there is a question if the modern ERP systems can provide the managers sufficient possibilities relating to ad-hoc reporting, static and dynamic reports and OLAP analyses. A one of the main goals of this article is to show and verify Business Intelligence tools of Microsoft Dynamics NAV for the support of decision-making in terms of the cross-border online purchasing. Pursuant to above-mentioned, in this article authors deal with problems relating to managers´ decision-making, customers´ decision-making and a support of its using the BI tools contained in ERP system Microsoft Dynamics NAV. A great deal of this article is aimed at area of multidimensional data which are the source data of e-commerce systems.
2010-08-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27313/1/MPRA_paper_27313.pdf
Suchánek, Petr and Slaninova, Kateřina and Bucki, Robert (2010): Business intelligence as the support of decision-making processes in e-commerce systems environment. Published in: Proceedings of the Workshop: Methods and Applications of Artificial Intelligence No. ISBN 978-83-62466-02-3 (November 2010): pp. 5-20.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:28913
2019-09-26T10:25:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28913/
Moderation Effect of Market Condition on the Relationship between Dividend Yield and Stock Return
Safari, Meysam
TahmooresPour, Reza
C19 - Other
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
B41 - Economic Methodology
This paper examines the existence of moderation effect of market condition on the relationship between dividend yield and stock return in Bursa Malaysia. Results confirm the existence of moderating effect of market condition. However, if the market condition is assumed to have direct impact on the stock return, the tested moderating variable fails to be significant in all forms of market condition. Results also suggest that incorporating moderation variable will improve the explanation power of the model in terms of R-square. In addition, models have been controlled for the size effect of the firms.
2011-02-14
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28913/1/MPRA_paper_28913.pdf
Safari, Meysam and TahmooresPour, Reza (2011): Moderation Effect of Market Condition on the Relationship between Dividend Yield and Stock Return.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:31764
2019-09-29T12:53:26Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463530
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31764/
Economic Integration between ASEAN+5 Countries: Comparison of GDP
Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui
Puah, Chin-Hong
Mattias, Murphy Lai
F15 - Economic Integration
F50 - General
C19 - Other
This study aims to investigate the causality direction of economic integration among ASEAN countries together with five other neighboring countries, namely Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. The analysis is based on the economic integration of GDP covering the sample period from 1967 to 2007. Empirical results from the Toda and Yamomoto (1995) Granger non-causality tests depicted the existence of bi-directional causality relationships between the GDP of ASEAN and China; GDP of ASEAN and Japan; GDP ASEAN and South Korea, and also GDP of ASEAN and New Zealand. This indicates that there is a great potential for ASEAN countries moving towards higher degree of economic integration via strengthening the relationship with those countries within the region.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31764/1/MPRA_paper_31764.pdf
Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui and Puah, Chin-Hong and Mattias, Murphy Lai (2010): Economic Integration between ASEAN+5 Countries: Comparison of GDP. Published in: Global Review of Business and Economics Research , Vol. 6, No. 2 (2010): pp. 191-198.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32546
2019-10-02T22:12:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433134
7375626A656374733D5A:5A31:5A3130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32546/
Investigating the cultural patterns of corruption: A nonparametric analysis
Halkos, George
Tzeremes, Nickolaos
C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Z10 - General
C19 - Other
By using a sample of 77 countries our analysis applies several nonparametric techniques in order to reveal the link between national culture and corruption. Based on Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and the corruption perception index, the results reveal that countries with higher levels of corruption tend to have higher power distance and collectivism values in their society.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32546/1/MPRA_paper_32546.pdf
Halkos, George and Tzeremes, Nickolaos (2011): Investigating the cultural patterns of corruption: A nonparametric analysis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:33004
2019-09-26T07:53:05Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D42:4234
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453031
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453339
7375626A656374733D4B:4B31:4B3139
7375626A656374733D45:4533
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453032
7375626A656374733D4B:4B30
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413133
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453139
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7375626A656374733D42:4235:423539
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33004/
The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history
Albers, Scott
Albers, Andrew L.
E0 - General
B4 - Economic Methodology
C19 - Other
E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C02 - Mathematical Methods
E39 - Other
K19 - Other
E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations
E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
K0 - General
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values
E19 - Other
E00 - General
B59 - Other
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
The Long-Wave theories of Nikolai Kondratiev and others claim to find mathematic waves in economic and other social data which are at present in dispute. Currently the theory is considered outside the scope of mainstream economics under several rationales.
Despite the lack of mainstream acceptance, we make a strong case for the existence of long waves in the Real GNP of the United States with a 56 year cycle. Our analysis bypasses many of the issues cited by Long-Wave theory critics and in fact clarifies the mathematical structure of the theory.
2011-07-21
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33004/1/MPRA_paper_33004.pdf
Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. (2011): The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history. Published in: The Middle East Studies Online Journal , Vol. 3, No. 6 (3 August 2011): pp. 199-253.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34057
2019-09-26T15:54:13Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3130
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433633
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D44:4435:443532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34057/
Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach
Bicaba, Zorobabel
N10 - General, International, or Comparative
C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling
C19 - Other
D52 - Incomplete Markets
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
This paper makes two important , even if preliminary, methodological contributions to the financial reforms literature. The first contribution is that it introduces a new framework for the metric of sequence analysis, namely, Optimal Matching Sequence Analysis. The second is that it provides an innovative framework namely synthetic counterfactual approach for the assessment of the impact of financial reforms sequence. It shows that the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries, affects the level and the volatility of GDP per capita growth.
2011-06-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34057/1/MPRA_paper_34057.pdf
Bicaba, Zorobabel (2011): Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34888
2019-09-29T11:56:51Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D52:5235:523538
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D4A:4A32:4A3231
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D52:5232:523233
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34888/
Séries longues d'emploi salarié régional sectoriel français 1967–2006
Buda, Rodolphe
R58 - Regional Development Planning and Policy
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
C19 - Other
R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics
This paper presents a retropolation of regional sectoral
employment's data series since 1967 to 2006. They have been
computed from various INSEE's data series distributed along
various nomenclatures. We present a technique based on 1° the "classical" (econometric + RAS) method and 2° a matrix algebraic method we have developed. We propose a regional-sectoral analysis of the employment based on spatial planning and employment policies retrospectives. This paper highlights the limits of analysis of economic activity, particularly related to employment, at a regional-sectoral level.
2011-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34888/1/MPRA_paper_34888.pdf
Buda, Rodolphe (2011): Séries longues d'emploi salarié régional sectoriel français 1967–2006.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:35911
2019-09-26T10:20:25Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473132
7375626A656374733D47:4733:473331
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433439
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35911/
"Forecasting stochastic Volatility using the Kalman filter: an application to Canadian Interest Rates and Price-Earnings Ratio"
Théoret, Raymond
Racicot, François-Éric
C13 - Estimation: General
G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates
G31 - Capital Budgeting ; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies ; Capacity
C19 - Other
C49 - Other
In this paper, we aim at forecasting the stochastic volatility of key financial market variables with the Kalman filter using stochastic models developed by Taylor (1986,1994) and Nelson (1990). First, we compare a stochastic volatility model relying on the Kalman filter to the conditional volatility estimated with the GARCH model. We apply our models to Canadian short-term interest rates. When comparing the profile of the interest rate stochastic volatility to the conditional one, we find that the omission
of a constant term in the stochastic volatility model might have a perverse effect leading to a scaling problem, a problem often overlooked in the literature. Stochastic volatility seems to be a better forecasting tool than GARCH(1,1) since it is less conditioned by autoregressive past information. Second, we filter the S&P500 price-earnings(P/E) ratio in order to forecast its value. To make this forecast, we postulate a rational expectations process but our method may accommodate other data generating processes. We find that our forecast is close to a GARCH(1,1) profile.
2010-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35911/1/MPRA_paper_35911.pdf
Théoret, Raymond and Racicot, François-Éric (2010): "Forecasting stochastic Volatility using the Kalman filter: an application to Canadian Interest Rates and Price-Earnings Ratio". Published in: Aestimatio. The IEB International Journal of Finance No. 1 (December 2010): pp. 1-20.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36505
2019-09-27T16:36:53Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
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7375626A656374733D44:4438:443834
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453137
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7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443033
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433230
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433539
7375626A656374733D44:4438:443833
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433831
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443031
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
7375626A656374733D59:5934:593430
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
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7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473134
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443131
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433633
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433630
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473132
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433530
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443132
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433330
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443130
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36505/
Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C.
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
G00 - General
D84 - Expectations ; Speculations
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C00 - General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
C13 - Estimation: General
C20 - General
C59 - Other
D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief ; Unawareness
C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data ; Data Access
D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
C01 - Econometrics
Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified)
C19 - Other
D53 - Financial Markets
C02 - Mathematical Methods
G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading
D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
E10 - General
C60 - General
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
C50 - General
D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
C30 - General
E00 - General
D10 - General
G10 - General
E40 - General
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16 sentiment surveys of distinct respondent universes and employ the technique of principal components analysis to extract the common signals from the surveys. I show that the ability of different population groups to anticipate correctly economic growth and excess stock returns is not identical, implying that not all sentiment is the same, although there exist some common components. I demonstrate that sentiment surveys have significant predictive power for both GDP growth and excess stock returns, and that the results are robust to the inclusion of information pertaining to the macroeconomic environment and momentum. Furthermore, the findings reject the conventional wisdom that the effect of sentiment is apparent exclusively in small-capitalization stocks.
2008-06-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36505/1/MPRA_paper_36505.pdf
Guzman, Giselle C. (2008): Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns. Published in: The Making of National Economic Forecasts No. Edward Elgar Publishing LTD (2009): pp. 319-351.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36511
2019-09-26T23:02:57Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D59:5934:593430
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
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7375626A656374733D45:4534:453437
7375626A656374733D44:4438:443834
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7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473134
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
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7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443130
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7375626A656374733D43:4338:433831
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7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
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74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36511/
An inflation expectations horserace
Guzman, Giselle C.
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified)
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C19 - Other
G00 - General
E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D84 - Expectations ; Speculations
E30 - General
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
C02 - Mathematical Methods
G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
C00 - General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
A10 - General
C10 - General
C13 - Estimation: General
D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
D10 - General
E00 - General
C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data ; Data Access
D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
G10 - General
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C01 - Econometrics
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to outperform the standard three low frequency survey measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality, indicating that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm the findings.
2010-01-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36511/2/MPRA_paper_36511.pdf
Guzman, Giselle C. (2010): An inflation expectations horserace.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36523
2019-10-21T01:28:49Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D52:5235:523538
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D4A:4A32:4A3231
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D52:5232:523233
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36523/
Estimation de l'emploi sectoriel par zone d'emploi du 31.12.1989 au 31.12.2010 – Compléments à la série 1998–2007 de l'INSEE
Buda, Rodolphe
R58 - Regional Development Planning and Policy
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
C19 - Other
R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics
This paper presents the building of long run data series about the French employment by employment area (zone d'emploi) from 1989 to 2010. We have completed the data series expressed by INSEE from 1998 to 2007. In the paper we describe our methodology and we present the results. This work is included inside a long run data series building project (1983–today). That's the reason why we don't provide any comment at this step.
2011-07-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36523/1/MPRA_paper_36523.pdf
Buda, Rodolphe (2011): Estimation de l'emploi sectoriel par zone d'emploi du 31.12.1989 au 31.12.2010 – Compléments à la série 1998–2007 de l'INSEE.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37148
2019-09-26T12:09:11Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433134
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433439
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433231
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37148/
Partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects and its confidence sets
Fan, Yanqin
Park, Sang Soo
C13 - Estimation: General
C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C19 - Other
C49 - Other
C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models ; Quantile Regressions
C01 - Econometrics
In this paper, we study partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects of a binary treatment for ideal randomized experiments, ideal randomized experiments with a known value of a dependence measure, and for data satisfying the selection-on-observables assumption respectively. For ideal randomized experiments, (i) we propose nonparametric estimators of the sharp bounds on the distribution of treatment effects and construct asymptotically valid confidence sets for the distribution of treatment effects; (ii) we propose bias-corrected estimators of the sharp bounds on the distribution of treatment effects; and (iii) we investigate finite sample performances of the proposed confidence sets and the bias-corrected estimators via simulation.
2009
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37148/1/MPRA_paper_37148.pdf
Fan, Yanqin and Park, Sang Soo (2009): Partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects and its confidence sets. Published in: Advances in Econometrics: Nonparametric Econometric Methods , Vol. 24, (2009): pp. 3-70.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37149
2019-10-01T13:27:20Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433134
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433231
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433439
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37149/
Confidence sets for some partially identified parameters
Fan, Yanqin
Park, Sang Soo
C13 - Estimation: General
C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C19 - Other
C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models ; Quantile Regressions
C49 - Other
C01 - Econometrics
In this paper, we first re-visit the inference problem for interval identified parameters originally studied in Imbens and Manski (2004) and later extended in Stoye (2008). We take the general criterion function approach and establish a new confidence interval that is asymptotically valid under the same assumptions as in Stoye (2008). Like the confidence interval of Stoye (2008), our new confidence interval extends that of Imbens and Manski (2004) to allow for the lack of a super-efficient estimator of the length of the identified interval. In addition, it shares the natural nesting property of the original confidence interval of Imbens and Manski (2004). A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample performance of our new confidence interval and that of Stoye (2008). Finally we extend our confidence interval for interval identified parameters to parameters defined by moment equalities/inequalities.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37149/1/MPRA_paper_37149.pdf
Fan, Yanqin and Park, Sang Soo (2010): Confidence sets for some partially identified parameters. Published in: Economics, Management, and Financial Market , Vol. 5, (2010): pp. 37-87.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37622
2019-09-28T23:48:19Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D4C:4C38:4C3833
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37622/
Análisis de los factores que afectan la repetición de la visita a una atracción cultural: una aplicación al museo de Antioquia
Brida, Juan Gabriel
Monterubbianesi, Pablo Daniel
Zapata Aguirre, Sandra
D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
C19 - Other
L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism
This study analyzes the behavior of repeat visitors to a cultural resource, in this case the Museum of Antioquia in Medellin (Colombia), by estimating travel cost model. The empirical results highlight issues such as women are more likely to re-visit the museum that age is also an important variable as is the employment status of visitors and income level. These results are a key tool to the strategic positioning of the museum and cultural tourism. A brief discussion is presented as well as management actions are recommended.
2012-03-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37622/1/MPRA_paper_37622.pdf
Brida, Juan Gabriel and Monterubbianesi, Pablo Daniel and Zapata Aguirre, Sandra (2012): Análisis de los factores que afectan la repetición de la visita a una atracción cultural: una aplicación al museo de Antioquia.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38366
2019-09-28T16:49:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4A:4A36:4A3634
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38366/
Estimation des élasticités du modèle de recherche d'emploi sur données françaises
Talarowski, David
J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
C19 - Other
This article exploits a sub-sample of the French employment survey data of 2009 of the Insee (National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies) to deduct in the style of Lancaster and Chesher (1983) the additional stylized parameters of the model of job search, that is the reservation wage and the elasticities. The necessary information to implement this approach is minimal. The elasticities and the reservation wage are calculated on the whole reserved sample as well as on the strata built on the sex and the educational level of the individuals.
2012
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38366/1/MPRA_paper_38366.pdf
Talarowski, David (2012): Estimation des élasticités du modèle de recherche d'emploi sur données françaises.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38841
2019-09-28T16:49:03Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D4C:4C38:4C3833
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38841/
Visitors of two types of museums: do expenditure patterns differ?
Brida, Juan Gabriel
Disegna, Marta
Scuderi, Raffaele
D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
C19 - Other
L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism
This study aims at estimating and comparing the determinants of expenditure behaviour of visitors in two types of museums. An ad-hoc survey was conducted between June and September 2011 among the visitors of the principal museums of the two provinces of Bolzano and Trento: the South Tyrol Museum of Archeology (Bolzano), hosting the permanent exhibition of the “Iceman” Ötzi, and the Museum of Modern and Contemporaneous Art of Trento and Rovereto (MART). The double-hurdle procedure of Heien and Wessels (1999) is used in order to obtain consistent estimates and split the process of spending decision into the stages of ‘activation’ and ‘outcome’. Results highlight two distinct profiles of visitors. Spending of the modern art museum visitor was positively related to her cultural interest, whereas the expenditure profile of the archaeological museum guest was more ‘generalist’.
2012-05-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38841/1/MPRA_paper_38841.pdf
Brida, Juan Gabriel and Disegna, Marta and Scuderi, Raffaele (2012): Visitors of two types of museums: do expenditure patterns differ?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:41032
2019-09-27T05:00:51Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423136
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41032/
Methodological mistakes and econometric consequences
Zaman, Asad
B16 - Quantitative and Mathematical
C19 - Other
Econometric Methodology is based on logical positivist principles. Since logical positivism has collapsed, it is necessary to re-think these foundations. We show that positivist methodology has led econometricians to a meaningless search for patterns in the data. An alternative methodology which relates observed patterns to real causal structures is proposed
2012-08-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41032/1/MPRA_paper_41032.pdf
Zaman, Asad (2012): Methodological mistakes and econometric consequences. Published in: International Econometric Review , Vol. 4, No. 2 (1 September 2012): pp. 99-122.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:41492
2019-09-26T23:40:53Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493330
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D41:4133:413332
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7375626A656374733D44:4433:443331
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423139
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463031
7375626A656374733D42:4232:423239
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433030
7375626A656374733D49:4930
7375626A656374733D42:4230:423030
7375626A656374733D44:4437:443734
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413133
7375626A656374733D4A:4A33
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423439
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423539
7375626A656374733D4A:4A35
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41492/
Diseguaglianza, conflitto sociale e sindacati in America
Lettieri, Antonio
I30 - General
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
A32 - Collective Volumes
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
A20 - General
H53 - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
C19 - Other
J08 - Labor Economics Policies
D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
B19 - Other
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
F01 - Global Outlook
B29 - Other
C00 - General
I0 - General
B00 - General
D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances ; Revolutions
A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values
J3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
B49 - Other
B59 - Other
J5 - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining
A comparison of the 2007-08 crisis with that of 1929 showed its extreme gravity, but it also may have implied that the old harmful mistakes would not be repeated. After four years, the crisis has not been solved and it even threatens to worsen. Neo-conservative Republicans claim that this is proof of the failure of Keynesian policies. Yet, there is something structurally distorted in the institutions and policies of American industrial relations. The fall of the ‘social contract’ is the basic element of the crisis of the American social and economic model. In comparison with the crisis of the Thirties and its aftermath, what initially was supposed to possibly evolve toward a new New Deal of the Twenty-first century has evolved just in its opposite.
2012-06-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41492/1/MPRA_paper_41492.pdf
Lettieri, Antonio (2012): Diseguaglianza, conflitto sociale e sindacati in America. Published in: Moneta e Credito , Vol. Vol 65, No. N° 258 (June 2012): pp. 115-144.
it
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:42623
2019-09-28T14:14:04Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433433
7375626A656374733D51:5131:513130
7375626A656374733D51:5131:513139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42623/
Bileşik Endeksle Tarım Sektörünün Gelişim Düzeyinin AB Ülkeleri Karşılaştırmalı Ölçümü
Polatkan, Tugba
Arslaner, Ferhat
C10 - General
C19 - Other
C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
Q10 - General
Q19 - Other
In spite of the analysis of sophisticated developments and their effects in the agricultural sector, measuring composite index of agricultural development depending
upon main statistical indicators in the determination of the level of agricultural sector developments is one of the important issue for the evaluation and comparison of the degree of development in agricultural development. Within this article, development indicators like productivity and density index related to crop and livestock production are analyzed. Additionally, the method for the composite index of agricultural development is given by using indicators for monitoring agricultural development and country comparison. In the country comparison, statistical analysis and evaluations by the help of related indicators are made for EU member and candidate countries.
2009-02-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42623/8/MPRA_paper_42623.pdf
Polatkan, Tugba and Arslaner, Ferhat (2009): Bileşik Endeksle Tarım Sektörünün Gelişim Düzeyinin AB Ülkeleri Karşılaştırmalı Ölçümü. Published in: Proceedings of 18th Statistical Research Symposium , Vol. 18, No. 3366 (1 February 2009): pp. 1-14.
tr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:44336
2019-09-26T14:36:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D42:4230
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443633
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D42:4232:423232
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453031
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44336/
Measures and Motivations: U.S. National Income and Product Estimates During the Great Depression and World War II
Kane, Richard
E62 - Fiscal Policy
B0 - General
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
B22 - Macroeconomics
E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts
C19 - Other
B40 - General
This paper explains the early U.S. Department of Commerce estimates of
national income and product during the 1930s and 1940s, focusing on how both
economic theory and the needs of policymakers influenced the methods and concepts used. The paper explores the debate between Simon Kuznets, author of Commerce’s first estimates of national income during the Great Depression, and Milton Gilbert, author of Commerce’s first estimates of gross national product (GNP) during World War II, over the meaning and measurement of the nation’s final product.
2012-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44336/1/MPRA_paper_44336.pdf
Kane, Richard (2012): Measures and Motivations: U.S. National Income and Product Estimates During the Great Depression and World War II.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:44843
2019-09-27T13:01:49Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413132
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413133
7375626A656374733D42:4230
7375626A656374733D42:4230:423030
7375626A656374733D42:4234
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423430
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423539
7375626A656374733D43:4330
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433030
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D43:4331
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4335
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433530
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D44:4430
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443031
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443033
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4531
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453133
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453139
7375626A656374733D45:4533
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D50:5031
7375626A656374733D50:5031:503130
7375626A656374733D50:5031:503136
7375626A656374733D5A:5A30
7375626A656374733D5A:5A30:5A3030
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44843/
Does “Okun’s Law” state a Pi:1 ratio? Toward a harmonic interpretation of why Okun’s Law works
Albers, Scott
Albers, Andrew L.
A10 - General
A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values
B0 - General
B00 - General
B4 - Economic Methodology
B40 - General
B50 - General
B59 - Other
C0 - General
C00 - General
C01 - Econometrics
C02 - Mathematical Methods
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C19 - Other
C5 - Econometric Modeling
C50 - General
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
D0 - General
D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
E0 - General
E00 - General
E1 - General Aggregative Models
E10 - General
E13 - Neoclassical
E19 - Other
E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
P1 - Capitalist Systems
P10 - General
P16 - Political Economy
Z0 - General
Z00 - General
In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden Mean” (1:phi or 1:1.6180) every fourteen years on average.
Building on this foundation we show herein that “Okun’s Law,” a 3:1 proportion between percent growth in real GNP and percent decrease in the rate of unemployment, is actually a pi:1 proportion, created through a form of mathematic / harmonic inverse. The resulting model of economics in the United States is thereby aligned with geometric, harmonic and trigonometric analysis, rather than purely statistical methods.
2013-03-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44843/1/MPRA_paper_44843.pdf
Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. (2013): Does “Okun’s Law” state a Pi:1 ratio? Toward a harmonic interpretation of why Okun’s Law works.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:45033
2019-09-27T08:50:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433030
7375626A656374733D43:4331
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4336
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433635
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433830
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4533
7375626A656374733D46:4636
7375626A656374733D46:4636:463632
7375626A656374733D46:4636:463634
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45033/
The distance-based approach to the quantification of the world convergences and imbalances - comparisons across countries and factors
Horvath, Denis
Sulikova, Veronika
Gazda, Vladimir
Sinicakova, Marianna
C00 - General
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C19 - Other
C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
C65 - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
C80 - General
E0 - General
E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization
F62 - Macroeconomic Impacts
F64 - Environment
The paper presents a general empirical method of distance-based multifaceted systematic identifying
of the positions of countries in relation to inequalities and imbalances. In order to understand the world economic relations in their entirety, we decided to analyze twelve most populous countries and eleven macroeconomic, environmental and demographic indicators relevant to them. Our analysis covering the period 1992-2008 attempts to identify core parts of the global economic system and countries that pose a potential risk of instability.
2013
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45033/1/MPRA_paper_45033.pdf
Horvath, Denis and Sulikova, Veronika and Gazda, Vladimir and Sinicakova, Marianna (2013): The distance-based approach to the quantification of the world convergences and imbalances - comparisons across countries and factors.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:46633
2019-09-29T07:11:03Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413132
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413133
7375626A656374733D42:4230:423030
7375626A656374733D42:4234
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423431
7375626A656374733D42:4235
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423539
7375626A656374733D43:4331
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4335
7375626A656374733D45:4531
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453139
7375626A656374733D45:4533
7375626A656374733D50:5031
7375626A656374733D50:5031:503136
7375626A656374733D5A:5A30
7375626A656374733D5A:5A30:5A3030
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/46633/
Okun’s Law as a Pi-to-1 ratio: A harmonic / trigonometric theory as to why Okun’s Law works
Albers, Scott
A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values
B00 - General
B4 - Economic Methodology
B41 - Economic Methodology
B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches
B59 - Other
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C19 - Other
C5 - Econometric Modeling
E1 - General Aggregative Models
E10 - General
E19 - Other
E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
P1 - Capitalist Systems
P16 - Political Economy
Z0 - General
Z00 - General
“Okun’s Law” states a 3:1 proportion between percent growth in U. S. real GNP and percent decrease in the rate of unemployment. This paper argues that this ratio is actually a Pi:1 proportion, heretofore unrecognized because it is displayed through a form of mathematic / harmonic inverse.
In Part One the Cartesian coordinate system is merged with the legal doctrines of actus reus (x-axis, actions) and mens rea (y-axis, thoughts). A unit circle of personal choice – including economic choice (trading vs. keeping) – may thereby be devised. This unit circle is then aggregated into a torus, half the circumference of which represents U.S. real GNP (Pi), the antipodal half-circumference its monetary value (Pi) and the radius the rate of employment necessary to its production (R = 1). Mainstream econometric analysis appears to support this theory of inverses with proximities of within 1.3%, 1.0%, 0.35%, 0.00105% and less than half a degree.
In Part Two this model of Okun’s Law is connected closely to an analysis of the well-known Kondratiev Wave, a 56-year “Long Wave” of evolving social and economic relationships. This approach to macroeconomics is thereby aligned with a geometric, harmonic and trigonometric analysis of empirical data, rather than purely statistical methods.
2013-04-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/46633/1/MPRA_paper_46633.pdf
Albers, Scott (2013): Okun’s Law as a Pi-to-1 ratio: A harmonic / trigonometric theory as to why Okun’s Law works.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:47485
2019-09-28T16:47:08Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433336
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47485/
On bootstrap validity for specification tests with weak instruments
Doko Tchatoka, Firmin
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C19 - Other
C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables
C36 - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper investigates the asymptotic validity of the bootstrap for
Durbin-Wu-Hausman (DWH) specification tests when instrumental variables (IVs) may
be arbitrary weak. It is shown that
under strong identification, the bootstrap offers a better approximation
than the usual asymptotic chi-square distributions. However, the bootstrap provides only
a first-order approximation when instruments are weak. This indicates clearly that
unlike the Wald-statistic based on a k-class type estimator (Moreira et al., 2009),
the bootstrap is valid even for the Wald-type of DWH statistics in the presence of weak instruments.
2013-03-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47485/8/MPRA_paper_47485.pdf
Doko Tchatoka, Firmin (2013): On bootstrap validity for specification tests with weak instruments.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:47543
2019-09-27T02:45:59Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433336
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47543/
On bootstrap validity for specification tests with weak instruments
Doko Tchatoka, Firmin
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C19 - Other
C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables
C36 - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper investigates the asymptotic validity of the bootstrap for
Durbin-Wu-Hausman (DWH) specification tests when instrumental variables (IVs) may
be arbitrary weak. It is shown that
under strong identification, the bootstrap offers a better approximation
than the usual asymptotic chi-square distributions. However, the bootstrap provides only
a first-order approximation when instruments are weak. This indicates clearly that
unlike the Wald-statistic based on a k-class type estimator (Moreira et al., 2009),
the bootstrap is valid even for the Wald-type of DWH statistics in the presence of weak instruments.
2013-03-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47543/1/MPRA_paper_47543.pdf
Doko Tchatoka, Firmin (2013): On bootstrap validity for specification tests with weak instruments.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:48682
2019-09-27T05:21:55Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D47:4731
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48682/
Spillover Effect in the MENA Area: Case of Four Financial Markets
El Alaoui, Marwane
Benbachir, Saâd
C19 - Other
G1 - General Financial Markets
In this paper, we studied the spillover effect among four financial markets from MENA area during a period that was characterized by political instability. The countries chosen are also signatories of an agreement of free trade in order to liberalize the movement flowing of their capitals. As the linear correlation is unable to capture nonlinear relation between variables, it also suffers from many shortcomings. Reason why, we used copula functions to understand better the dependence structure between markets and to be able to detect spillover effect in that period. The results show that Egyptian Exchange and Casablanca Stock Exchange are highly correlated. We observed the same thing between Amman Stock Exchange and Egyptian Exchange. It seems that Egyptian market transmitted its volatility to the Moroccan and Jordanian markets.
2012
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48682/1/MPRA_paper_48682.pdf
El Alaoui, Marwane and Benbachir, Saâd (2012): Spillover Effect in the MENA Area: Case of Four Financial Markets. Published in: International Research Journal of Finance and Economics No. 103 (January 2013): pp. 162-177.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:50831
2019-09-27T07:56:13Z
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7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433739
7375626A656374733D59:5938:593830
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50831/
The Problem of Points
Cantillo, Andres
C19 - Other
C79 - Other
Y80 - Related Disciplines
According to Katz [6] some of the basic notions of probability existed in ancient civilizations. In The Talmud and in Roman calculations of annuities there is some evidence of this. However, no record of numerical probability calculations exists.
Hald [5], Bernstein [1] and Katz [6] agree that this numerical development was intimately linked to the study of gambling, contracts and profits. These authors also coincide in that the formulation of “The Problem of Points” is a crucial event.
The paper is centered on evaluating and explaining the history of the formulation of “The Problem of Points”. The solution to this problem originated the deductive notions of probability [5]. I will center my attention on the formulation and attempt of solution by Pacioli [4], Cardano [2], Tartaglia [14] and Forestani [4]. In this process Cardano began to unveil some principles that are coherent with a modern theory of probability.
2011-03-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50831/1/MPRA_paper_50831.pdf
Cantillo, Andres (2011): The Problem of Points.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:51161
2019-09-27T08:32:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51161/
Pauvreté et microfinance au Congo Kinshasa : une approche par l’analyse factorielle discriminante
Ngunza Maniata, Kevin
C19 - Other
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
The objective of fight against poverty was at the origin of the creation of the institutions of microfinance (IMF) which thus drained public financings and created strong waitings, as well for their customers as at the macro-economic level. Today, certain authors underline the limits of the microfinance and question its impact on the development. What happens really? What do the impact studies learn on the contribution from the microfinance to the poverty reduction in the developing countries?
The first impact waited of the microfinance, taking into account its objectives, is on the level of its customers. This article proposes a combination of the multivaried statistics’ approach with the use of the most usual measurements as regards poverty approach on the whole of the units (recipients and not recipients of the financial services) and of the decompositions analysis according to sub-groups' of interest (recipient or not, men/women) for the poverty analysis and the role of the institutions of microfinance (IMF) in a poor and precarious congolese environment.
2013-10-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51161/1/MPRA_paper_51161.pdf
Ngunza Maniata, Kevin (2013): Pauvreté et microfinance au Congo Kinshasa : une approche par l’analyse factorielle discriminante.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:53048
2019-09-28T15:44:49Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53048/
Bazele Statisticii
Stefanescu, Răzvan
Dumitriu, Ramona
C10 - General
C19 - Other
C40 - General
This book approaches the elementary statistical concepts. It presents also some statistical methods of collecting and analysis of data.
2007-09-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53048/1/MPRA_paper_53048.pdf
Stefanescu, Răzvan and Dumitriu, Ramona (2007): Bazele Statisticii.
ro
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:54383
2019-09-30T16:02:23Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54383/
Investigation of Iterative Algorithms for Evaluation of Capital Structure and Cost
Minasyan, Vigen
C19 - Other
Determination of structure and correct calculation of a company’s capital value is an essential; theoretical and practical problem for corporate finance. The proportion between the company’s equity and borrowed capital determines the risk and profitability of the company and, consequently, the welfare of its owners. The most common recommendation is to evaluate the stricture of capital based on market proportions between indebtedness and equity. However, market proportions most often deviate from values obtained through analytical calculations. This means that weak efficiency of the market brings about inconsistency between the input data and the results, which are calculated from them. Second, not all companies have a representative market quotation. There is a question, then: how can we correctly evaluate capital and its market structure for individual projects and companies in general? The work presented below is dedicated to the iterative method for evaluation of fair structure of capital as suggested in (Limitovsky M.A., Minasyan V.B. 2010), and to the proving of consistency of this method for a very large number of companies.
2013
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54383/1/MPRA_paper_54383.pdf
Minasyan, Vigen (2013): Investigation of Iterative Algorithms for Evaluation of Capital Structure and Cost. Published in: International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Review , Vol. 1, No. 1 (2013): pp. 50-76.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:56282
2019-10-16T22:14:45Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463533
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56282/
The Principal Components Approach to Quota Formulation at the IMF: 2011 Economic Size and Quota Formula Update
Nguema-Affane, Thierry
C19 - Other
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations
This paper updates economic size rankings and quota formulas derived from the principal components approach to quota formulation at the IMF developed by Nguéma-Affane (2008). Using available annual sets of quota data up to 2011, the paper shows that the top 10 countries remained broadly stable in 2009-2011, with one notable development: China is now the largest economy since 2009 followed by the United States, Japan and Germany. Quota shares mirror this development, notably the downward trend of the quota shares of advanced economies. China is incontestably experiencing the highest gain in quota shares consistent with its continuous economic dynamism. The paper also explores the impact of removing openness and/or variability from the dataset used for the purpose of the PCAp. It shows that the variables openness and variability play the same role as they reinforce the size dimension through their strong correlation with GDP. However they contribute very little to the significance of the economic size indicator.
2014-05-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56282/1/MPRA_paper_56282.pdf
Nguema-Affane, Thierry (2014): The Principal Components Approach to Quota Formulation at the IMF: 2011 Economic Size and Quota Formula Update.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:56398
2019-09-26T22:14:42Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433433
7375626A656374733D51:5131:513130
7375626A656374733D51:5131:513139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56398/
Bileşik Endeksle Tarım Sektörünün Gelişim Düzeyinin AB Ülkeleri Karşılaştırmalı Ölçümü
Polatkan, Tugba
Arslaner, Ferhat
C10 - General
C19 - Other
C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
Q10 - General
Q19 - Other
In spite of the analysis of sophisticated developments and their effects in the agricultural sector, measuring composite index of agricultural development depending
upon main statistical indicators in the determination of the level of agricultural sector developments is one of the important issue for the evaluation and comparison of the degree of development in agricultural development. Within this article, development indicators like productivity and density index related to crop and livestock production are analyzed. Additionally, the method for the composite index of agricultural development is given by using indicators for monitoring agricultural development and country comparison. In the country comparison, statistical analysis and evaluations by the help of related indicators are made for EU member and candidate countries.
2009-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56398/1/MPRA_paper_56398.pdf
Polatkan, Tugba and Arslaner, Ferhat (2009): Bileşik Endeksle Tarım Sektörünün Gelişim Düzeyinin AB Ülkeleri Karşılaştırmalı Ölçümü. Published in: Proceedings of 18th Statistical Research Symposium , Vol. 18, No. 3366 (February 2009): pp. 1-14.
tr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:59788
2019-10-01T10:17:52Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59788/
Modeling and Forecasting Volatility – How Reliable are modern day approaches?
Mehta, Anirudh
Kanishka, Kunal
C10 - General
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C19 - Other
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
C58 - Financial Econometrics
This study explores the volatility models and evaluates the quality of one-step ahead forecasts of volatility constructed by (1) GARCH, (2) TGARCH, (3) Risk metrics and (4) Historical volatility. Volatility forecasts suggest that TGARCH performs relatively best in term of MSPE, followed by GARCH, Risk metrics and historical volatility. In terms of VaR, we test for correct unconditional coverage and index-
Dependence of violations using Likelihood Ratio tests. The tests suggest that VaR forecasts at 90 % and 95% have desirable properties. Regarding 99% VaR forecasts,
We find significant evidence that suggests none of the models can reliably predict at this confidence level.
2014-11-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59788/1/MPRA_paper_59788.pdf
Mehta, Anirudh and Kanishka, Kunal (2014): Modeling and Forecasting Volatility – How Reliable are modern day approaches?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:61154
2019-10-02T17:01:20Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433831
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61154/
Retrieving initial capital distributions from panel data
Chen, Xi
Plotnikova, Tatiana
C19 - Other
C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data ; Data Access
D20 - General
A common problem in the empirical production analysis at the firm-level is that the initial values of capital are often missing in the data. Most empirical studies impute initial capital according to some ad hoc criteria based on a single arbitrary proxy. This paper evaluates the bias of production function estimations that is introduced when these traditional initial value approximations are used. We propose a generalized framework to deal with the missing
initial capital problem by using multiple proxies where the choice of proxies is data-driven. We conduct a series of Monte Carlo experiments where the proposed method is tested against traditional approaches and apply the method to the firm-level data.
2014-09-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61154/1/MPRA_paper_61154.pdf
Chen, Xi and Plotnikova, Tatiana (2014): Retrieving initial capital distributions from panel data.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:61957
2019-09-28T11:43:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473132
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61957/
Etude de la dynamique non-linéaire des rentabilités de la bourse de Casablanca
RIANE, Nizare
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C19 - Other
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates
The preponderance of the linear approach in the stock market modeling is the result of the Frisch-Slutsky paradigm which implies that the market can only converge to an equilibrium point or diverge, according to a monotonic or oscillatory trajectory. Moreover, this description of reality is insufficient, first by his inability to describe the fluctuations that tend to persist and market anomalies, second by the weakness of the linear statistical tests facing more complex processes. In this paper, we examine the existence of a non-linear dynamics that govern the evolution of the MASI Index. The analysis uses the concepts of Lyapunov exponents, correlation dimension and other tools to determine the nature of the underlying process. The results provide evidence of a non-linear process, but the determinism remains contested.
2014-09-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61957/1/MPRA_paper_61957.pdf
RIANE, Nizare (2014): Etude de la dynamique non-linéaire des rentabilités de la bourse de Casablanca.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:66451
2019-09-28T17:06:56Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433138
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66451/
Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal’s Fail-Safe Number
Fragkos, Konstantinos C.
Tsagris, Michail
Frangos, Christos C.
C18 - Methodological Issues: General
C19 - Other
The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal’s fail-safe number. Although
Rosenthal’s estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed
statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal’s fail-safe number.This was produced by discerning
whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal’s estimator.
2014-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66451/1/MPRA_paper_66451.pdf
Fragkos, Konstantinos C. and Tsagris, Michail and Frangos, Christos C. (2014): Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal’s Fail-Safe Number. Published in: International Scholarly Research Notices , Vol. 2014, (December 2014): pp. 1-17.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:69572
2019-10-10T05:57:08Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433138
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69572/
Unified quasi-maximum likelihood estimation theory for stable and unstable Markov bilinear processes
Aknouche, Abdelhakim
C10 - General
C13 - Estimation: General
C18 - Methodological Issues: General
C19 - Other
A unified quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation theory for stationary and nonstationary simple Markov bilinear (SMBL) models is proposed. Such models may be seen as generalized random coefficient autoregressions (GRCA) in which the innovation and the random coefficient processes are fully correlated. It is shown that the QML estimate (QMLE) for the SMBL model is always asymptotically Gaussian without assuming strict stationarity, meaning that there is no knife edge effect. The asymptotic variance of the QMLE is different in the stationary and nonstationary cases but is consistently estimated using the same estimator. A perhaps surprising result is that in the nonstationary domain, all SMBL parameters are consistently estimated in contrast with unstable GARCH and GRCA models where the QMLE of the conditional variance intercept is inconsistent. As a result, strict stationarity testing for the SMBL is studied. Simulation experiments and a real application to strict stationarity testing for some financial stock returns illustrate the theory in finite samples.
2015
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69572/1/MPRA_paper_69572.pdf
Aknouche, Abdelhakim (2015): Unified quasi-maximum likelihood estimation theory for stable and unstable Markov bilinear processes. Published in: Nova Publisher Science (2015)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:71745
2019-09-26T11:27:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433439
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433539
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433639
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71745/
Analysis of average value of a Fourier series using z-transform: comparison with Hodrick-Prescott filter
Minskya, Ksovim
C19 - Other
C49 - Other
C59 - Other
C69 - Other
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
This paper develops a method of analyzing average value of a complex-valued function that can be represented as a Fourier series satisfying a few realistic restrictions. This method may be useful when Discrete Fourier transform is highly inefficient, and comparison with Hodrick-Prescott filter is made.
2016-06-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71745/1/MPRA_paper_71745.pdf
Minskya, Ksovim (2016): Analysis of average value of a Fourier series using z-transform: comparison with Hodrick-Prescott filter.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:71908
2019-10-02T17:31:25Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433439
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433539
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433639
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71908/
A three-pole filter understanding of the average value of a Fourier series and comparison with Hodrick-Prescott filter
Minskya, Ksovim
C19 - Other
C49 - Other
C59 - Other
C69 - Other
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
This paper develops a method of analyzing average value of a complex-valued function that can be represented as a Fourier series satisfying a few realistic restrictions. This method may be useful when Discrete Fourier transform is highly inefficient, and comparison with Hodrick-Prescott filter is made.
2016-06-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71908/1/MPRA_paper_71908.pdf
Minskya, Ksovim (2016): A three-pole filter understanding of the average value of a Fourier series and comparison with Hodrick-Prescott filter.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:73881
2019-09-26T16:19:36Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433335
7375626A656374733D4C:4C32:4C3231
7375626A656374733D4C:4C32:4C3239
7375626A656374733D4C:4C38:4C3836
7375626A656374733D4D:4D31:4D3132
7375626A656374733D4D:4D31:4D3135
7375626A656374733D4D:4D31:4D3139
7375626A656374733D4D:4D35:4D3533
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73881/
Training & Development Barometer for Effective Transformation of Organizational Commitment and Overall Performance in Banking Sectors of KPK, Pakistan: Qualitative study of Workforce of Bank of Khyber
Zehra, Nasreen
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C19 - Other
C35 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions
L21 - Business Objectives of the Firm
L29 - Other
L86 - Information and Internet Services ; Computer Software
M12 - Personnel Management ; Executives; Executive Compensation
M15 - IT Management
M19 - Other
M53 - Training
This research paper investigates the impact of T&D program on the level of employees' organizational commitment and overall performances in the Banking sector of KPK by considering Bank of Khyber as a case study. Study aims to critically examine all three attributes of organizational commitment (affective, normative, and continuance commitment respectively) and its impact on the job satisfaction in banking sector of KPK, Pakistan.
The notions of Guest et.al, (2003) and Wall & Wood (2005) are taken as a foundation to explore the linkage between organisational commitment and T&D program, however both these studies had not investigated all three attributes in equal manner. The focus of these previous studies were more on affective and continuance commitment and did not investigate the causes and consequences that make these attributes to create an impact on the overall performances. Thus this study is significant because it attempts to explain in exploratory manner the reasons behind impact created by training.
Inductive approach in a cross-sectional design following interpretive research philosophy research is carried out. The bank of Khyber, KPK is case study selected with 15 regional and branch managers as participants for interviews and 277 employees participated in the survey questionnaire, selected through stratified, convenience, and random sampling technique.
Results of present study indicates that to retain skilled workforce, organization has to work on their continuance commitment by offering them promotion and salary increment because these are two factors that enable firms to retain skilled workers. Training increases employees' affective and normative commitment more in general as compare to continuance commitment.
This paper contributes to the field of management and administrative sciences by investigating the relationship between T&D program and employees' performance and organisational commitment by exploring workforce and management's perspective through financial institution. It adds to the managerial literature related to T&D in relation with organisational commitment and overall performance in developing country's context.
2016-04-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73881/1/MPRA_paper_73881.pdf
Zehra, Nasreen (2016): Training & Development Barometer for Effective Transformation of Organizational Commitment and Overall Performance in Banking Sectors of KPK, Pakistan: Qualitative study of Workforce of Bank of Khyber. Published in: International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Science (IJ-ARBSS) , Vol. 6, No. 6 (20 June 2016): pp. 246-267.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:74618
2019-09-26T09:04:23Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433138
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D43:4334
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74618/
Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model
Sinha, Pankaj
Srinivas, Sandeep
Paul, Anik
Chaudhari, Gunjan
C13 - Estimation: General
C18 - Methodological Issues: General
C19 - Other
C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C40 - General
The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election 2016 using factor analysis, which groups the various economic and non-economic parameters based on the correlation among them. The major economic factor significant in 2016 US presidential election is the growth of the economy, and the ‘anti-incumbency factor that signifies how long the incumbent party has been controlling the White House is found to be an important non-economic factor likely to play a dominant role in the election.
The dependent variables considered are the vote shares of the nominees of the incumbent and the non-incumbent majority party candidates. The forecast is calculated by running a regression of the significant factors, obtained through factor analysis technique, on the incumbent party vote share as well as on the non-incumbent party vote share.
The proposed models forecast the vote share of Democrat candidate Mrs. Hillary Clinton to be 45.59% with a standard error of ±2.32% and that of Republican candidate Mr. Donald Trump to be 39.51% with a standard error of ±3.87%. Hence, the models built in the paper signal a comfortable margin of victory for the Presidential nominee of the incumbent party, Hillary Clinton.
The study re-establishes the notion that the non-economic factors have a greater influence on the outcomes of election as compared to the economic factors, as some of the important economic factors such as inflation and unemployment rate failed to establish their significance.
2016-07-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74618/1/MPRA_paper_74618.pdf
Sinha, Pankaj and Srinivas, Sandeep and Paul, Anik and Chaudhari, Gunjan (2016): Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:75170
2019-10-09T12:07:09Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4335
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433839
7375626A656374733D43:4339:433930
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75170/
Some new indicators and procedure to get additional information from the Business Tendency Surveys
Fusari, Angelo
Pellissier, Murray
C10 - General
C19 - Other
C5 - Econometric Modeling
C89 - Other
C90 - General
This paper sets out some procedure allowing to deriving new information from the Business
Tendency Surveys. Precisely, the volatility of respondents’ opinions will be computed that can be
interpreted as a measure of radical (or true) uncertainty. This measure is strongly recommended by
the present economic crisis originated by financial markets that the dominating idea of the
impossibility of measuring and hence monitoring radical uncertainty has contributed to consign to
an unconstrained and destabilizing speculation. Moreover, some indicators of the persistence of
each modality of answer are proposed, as well as a correction of the usual percent of the modalities
of survey answers that attributes a higher weight to the answers that do not change in successive
survey periods. This correction is mainly suggested by the fact that the degree of persistence of
respondents’ opinions is an important sign of entrepreneurs and firms’ behaviour and decisionmaking.
The modified percents of the modalities of answers are confronted to the usual ones, and
some econometric estimations are provided. The applications use data of the Italian and South
African business tendency surveys on a number of variables. The resulting information and
elaborations seem to suggest some critical consideration on the content of the harmonized EU
surveys, mainly with reference to the reliability of the confidence indicators and the disregard of the
volatility of answers with its attitude to provide a meaningful indicator of radical uncertainty
2008-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75170/1/MPRA_paper_75170.pdf
Fusari, Angelo and Pellissier, Murray (2008): Some new indicators and procedure to get additional information from the Business Tendency Surveys.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:77278
2019-09-28T10:54:18Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4335
7375626A656374733D46:4631
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463133
7375626A656374733D46:4636
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77278/
The key factors of export intensity in Tunisia: A Logistic regression with random effect model
Kahia, Montassar
C01 - Econometrics
C13 - Estimation: General
C19 - Other
C5 - Econometric Modeling
F1 - Trade
F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations
F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization
O1 - Economic Development
Given the growing international competition and globalization being characterized by the massive reduction of institutional barriers, opening new markets for consumer goods, the birth of many trade agreements and the establishment of the World Trade Organization, it is imperative for companies wishing to grow, the possibility to internationalize. Consequently, one of the first modes of internationalization of a firm is export. Indeed, the success of export can be measured by various factors that depend on company's goal against the use of export strategy. Such factors are grouped into two categories namely: external and internal factors to the company. This paper will focus on exploring and analyzing the key factors that affect the export intensity of Tunisian companies. Thus, our study was conducted at the micro-economic level. Indeed, as the available data, we will try to find out the factors of export activity for a sample of Tunisian companies and this through a Logit model with random effects applied to panel data from 1997 to 2003. Indeed, the main factors that positively affect the probability of exporting in Tunisia are: Capital intensity; the company age and size. Furthermore, among the main factors that negatively affect the probability of exporting, we state labor cost.
2017
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77278/2/MPRA_paper_77278.pdf
Kahia, Montassar (2017): The key factors of export intensity in Tunisia: A Logistic regression with random effect model.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:77844
2019-09-27T12:42:17Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77844/
Loss Functions for Detecting Outliers in Panel Data: An Introduction
Charles, Coleman
C19 - Other
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Loss functions are introduced for detecting outliers in panel data. The loss functions for nonnegative data take into account both the size of the base and the relative change. When the data generation processes take a particular form, an exact parametrization is available. The loss functions are extended to variables whose outlier criteria depend on another variable and to data of mixed sign. In the latter case, the geometry dictates one parametrization.
2003
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77844/1/MPRA_paper_77844.pdf
Charles, Coleman (2003): Loss Functions for Detecting Outliers in Panel Data: An Introduction. Published in: The 13th Federal Forecasters Conference - 2003: Papers and Proceedings No. 2003 (2003): pp. 265-273.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:78120
2019-10-01T08:29:13Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78120/
Bifurcation theory of a square lattice economy: Racetrack economy analogy in an economic geography model
Ikeda, Kiyohrio
Onda, Mikihisa
Takayama, Yuki
C19 - Other
Bifurcation theory for an economic agglomeration in a square lattice economy is presented in comparison with that in a racetrack economy. The existence of a series of equilibria with characteristic agglomeration patterns is elucidated. A spatial period doubling bifurcation cascade between these equilibria is advanced as a common mechanism to engender fewer and larger agglomerations in both economies. Analytical formulas for a break point, at which the uniformity is broken under reduced transport costs, are proposed for an economic geography model by synthetically encompassing both economies.
2017-02-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78120/1/MPRA_paper_78120.pdf
Ikeda, Kiyohrio and Onda, Mikihisa and Takayama, Yuki (2017): Bifurcation theory of a square lattice economy: Racetrack economy analogy in an economic geography model.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:79650
2019-10-01T18:48:03Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433632
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79650/
On periodic ergodicity of a general periodic mixed Poisson autoregression
Aknouche, Abdelhakim
Bentarzi, Wissam
Demouche, Nacer
C10 - General
C19 - Other
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
We propose a general class of non-linear mixed Poisson autoregressions whose form and parameters are periodic over time. Under a periodic contraction condition on the forms of the conditional mean, we show the existence of a unique nonanticipative solution to the model, which is strictly periodically stationary, periodically ergodic and periodically weakly dependent having in the pure Poisson case finite higher-order moments. Applications to some well-known integer-valued time series models are considered.
2017-02-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79650/2/MPRA_paper_79650.pdf
Aknouche, Abdelhakim and Bentarzi, Wissam and Demouche, Nacer (2017): On periodic ergodicity of a general periodic mixed Poisson autoregression.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:84474
2019-10-01T15:59:47Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433433
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433535
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/84474/
The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Search Engine Data
Tierney, Heather L.R.
Kim, Jiyoon (June)
Nazarov, Zafar
C19 - Other
C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
C55 - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
Using structured machine learning, this paper examines the effect that temporal aggregation has on big data from Google Analytics and Google Trends. Specifically, daily and weekly data from the Charleston Area Convention and Visitors Bureau (CACVB) website from January 2008 to March 2009 via Google Analytics and weekly, monthly, and quarterly data from Google Trends for seven economic variables from 2004 to 2011 are examined. Taking into account the different levels of aggregation, the CDFs and the estimated regression results are examined. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test rejects the null of equivalent data distributions in the vast majority of cases for the CACVB data, but this is not the case for the economic variable. Through data mining, this paper also finds that aggregation has the potential of affecting the level of integration and the regression results for both the CACVB data and the seven economic variables.
2018-01-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/84474/1/MPRA_paper_84474.pdf
Tierney, Heather L.R. and Kim, Jiyoon (June) and Nazarov, Zafar (2018): The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Search Engine Data.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:85085
2019-09-26T09:28:39Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443230
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443233
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443239
7375626A656374733D4D:4D30:4D3030
7375626A656374733D4D:4D35:4D3531
7375626A656374733D4D:4D35:4D3539
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/85085/
Managing Strategic Change and ERP Implementation under Distinctive Learning Styles: Quantitative case of Burberry PLC
Sah, Sanjay Kumar
Dadwal, Sumesh Singh
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C19 - Other
D20 - General
D23 - Organizational Behavior ; Transaction Costs ; Property Rights
D29 - Other
M00 - General
M51 - Firm Employment Decisions ; Promotions
M59 - Other
This paper examines the effective strategic change management and Enterprise Resource Planning implementation under distinctive learning styles namely; diverging, converging, assembling, and accommodating learning styles through case of Burberry brand at Bicester Village, Cheshire Oaks, and Chatham Place. Additionally, paper investigates the strategic changes and organizational factors in relation with the ability to adopt change and successful ERP implementation. Total 87 respondents were approached through snowball, purposive, and convenience sampling. Findings revealed that accommodating learning style is the most influential learning style that significant positively affects the ERP implementation process. Interestingly, all learning styles (diverging, converging, assimilating, and accommodating) have statistically significant correlation with organizational change process. Additionally, complexity is the most critical organizational component affecting employees' ability to accept changes.
2018-01-20
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/85085/1/MPRA_paper_85085.pdf
Sah, Sanjay Kumar and Dadwal, Sumesh Singh (2018): Managing Strategic Change and ERP Implementation under Distinctive Learning Styles: Quantitative case of Burberry PLC. Published in: International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences , Vol. 8, No. 2 (27 February 2018): pp. 188-2014.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:88818
2019-09-26T23:29:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D46:4633
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88818/
Macroeconomic variables and current account balance in Namibia
Eita, Joel Hinaunye
Manuel, Victoria
Naimhwaka, Erwin
C19 - Other
F3 - International Finance
F30 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
This paper investigates macroeconomic determinants of the current account balance in Namibia. The results show that there is evidence of twin deficit hypothesis in Namibia. Evidence of twin deficit hypothesis suggest that it is important for Namibia to have fiscal discipline in order to improve its current account. Increase in capital flows, real GDP or per capita, results in a deterioration of the current account. Increase in interest rate, commodity prices and population cause the current account balance to improve. This suggest that contractionary monetary policy contributed to reduction of unproductive imports and improved the current account balance.
2018-03-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88818/1/MPRA_paper_88818.pdf
Eita, Joel Hinaunye and Manuel, Victoria and Naimhwaka, Erwin (2018): Macroeconomic variables and current account balance in Namibia.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:90065
2019-09-27T00:00:16Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4332
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3431
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3437
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3535
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3537
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90065/
Endogenous constraints, coefficients of economic distance, and economic performance of African countries – An exploratory essay
Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich
C19 - Other
C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables
O1 - Economic Development
O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O55 - Africa
O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
Existing literature has overstressed the importance of exogenous constraints in the economic performance of African countries at the expense of endogenous constraints, although the latter are longer-lasting and more self-propagating than the former. In this exploratory essay I put endogenous factors upfront, and introduce and define the concept of economic distance. I argue that the coefficient of economic distance is a better measure of what is going on than things like the Africa dummy, for example. The evidence I consider suggests that policy and future research will benefit from focused studies of endogenous constraints on economic performance. The essay is incomplete without its empirical complement, but it succeeds in holding up a mirror in front of these countries. The implication is that continued emphasis on exogenous constraints is a misallocation of scarce policy and research resources.
2018-11-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90065/1/MPRA_paper_90065.pdf
Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich (2018): Endogenous constraints, coefficients of economic distance, and economic performance of African countries – An exploratory essay.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:90452
2019-09-27T21:12:51Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D41:4132:413232
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D49:4932:493233
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90452/
Statistical Literacy and Attitudes Towards Statistics of Romanian Undergraduate Students
Cimpoeru, Smaranda
Roman, Monica
A22 - Undergraduate
C19 - Other
I23 - Higher Education ; Research Institutions
Statistical literacy is the capacity to challenge statistics encountered in everyday life (Gal, 2002) and has become a key competence for the entire work-force in today’s data-driven society. However, teaching statistics to non-economists has some particularities determined by their anxiety towards the subject. In order to have a better approach in teaching Statistics to this type of audience, the paper provides an analysis regarding students’ initial level of statistical literacy, the attitudes and beliefs towards Statistics, in the case of undergraduate students of the “Applied Modern Language” program under Bucharest University of Economic Studies. Using the models developed by Gal (2002) and Watson (2003), the results prove that basic statistical literacy skills like graph analysis or table reading are sound, while mathematical level is well below average, correlated with a high anxiety regrading mathematics and preconceptions about complexity of statistics.
2018-03-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90452/1/MPRA_paper_90452.pdf
Cimpoeru, Smaranda and Roman, Monica (2018): Statistical Literacy and Attitudes Towards Statistics of Romanian Undergraduate Students. Published in: Journal of Social and Economic Statistics , Vol. 7, No. 1 (31 August 2018): pp. 1-18.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:90517
2019-09-26T16:52:55Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3137
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90517/
Can Western African countries catch up with Nigeria? Evidence from Smooth Nonlinearity method in Fractional Unit root framework
Yaya, OlaOluwa S
Ling, Pui Kiew
Furuoka, Fumitaka
Ezeoke, Chinyere Mary Rose
Jacob, Ray Ikechukwu
C19 - Other
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
N17 - Africa ; Oceania
West African countries have long advocated efforts to promote economic integration and income convergence. In recent trends, Nigeria records the highest GDP in nominal value, yet its neighbouring countries are yet to catch up in terms of both GDP growth rate and GDP per capita growth rate. The general objective of this paper is to examine the convergence of Western African countries to catch up with Nigeria in terms of real per capita income. For the estimation, the paper employs fractional unit root approach to model simultaneously smooth breaks by means of flexible Fourier function in time. The approach adopted is novel, where it is still lacking in the application of economic convergence across countries. The findings show that, while some West African countries do converge among themselves, only Ghana is likely to catch up with Nigeria. As a policy implication, the West-African countries would increase further education level and technology transfers to promote income convergence at different stages of economic development.
2018-12-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90517/1/MPRA_paper_90517.pdf
Yaya, OlaOluwa S and Ling, Pui Kiew and Furuoka, Fumitaka and Ezeoke, Chinyere Mary Rose and Jacob, Ray Ikechukwu (2018): Can Western African countries catch up with Nigeria? Evidence from Smooth Nonlinearity method in Fractional Unit root framework.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:97017
2019-11-23T00:33:49Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433633
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97017/
Low sample size and regression: A Monte Carlo approach
Riveros Gavilanes, John Michael
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C19 - Other
C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling
This article performs simulations with different small samples considering the regression techniques of OLS, Jackknife, Bootstrap, Lasso and Robust Regression in order to stablish the best approach in terms of lower bias and statistical significance with a pre-specified data generating process -DGP-. The methodology consists of a DGP with 5 variables and 1 constant parameter which was regressed among the simulations with a set of random normally distributed variables considering samples sizes of 6, 10, 20 and 500. Using the expected values discriminated by each sample size, the accuracy of the estimators was calculated in terms of the relative bias for each technique. The results indicate that Jackknife approach is more suitable for lower sample sizes as it was stated by Speed (1994), Bootstrap approach reported to be sensitive to a lower sample size indicating that it might not be suitable for stablish significant relationships in the regressions. The Monte Carlo simulations also reflected that when a significant relationship is found in small samples, this relationship will also tend to remain significant when the sample size is increased.
2019-11-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97017/7/MPRA_paper_97017.pdf
Riveros Gavilanes, John Michael (2019): Low sample size and regression: A Monte Carlo approach.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:98672
2020-02-17T05:05:06Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3137
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98672/
Growth Slowdowns and Middle-Income Trap: Evidence from New Unit Root Framework
Furuoka, Fumitaka
Pui, Kiew Ling
Ezeoke, Chinyere Mary Rose
Jacob, Ray Ikechukwu
Yaya, OlaOluwa S
C19 - Other
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
N17 - Africa ; Oceania
This paper suggests a new testing procedure to systematically examine the middle-income trap (MIT). To empirically demonstrate this procedure, one high income and 14 middle-income countries are examined using newly developed unit root tests - Fourier ADF with structural break (FADF-SB) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Fourier ADF (SUR-FADF). The FADF-SB test incorporates unknown nonlinearity and smooth break in the time-series, while the SUR-FADF test accounts for cross-sectional dependency. The empirical findings produced mixed results: 10 countries have a relatively high possibility of facing the MIT problem, while only one country has a relatively low possibility of facing the problem. For the remaining three countries, it is uncertain whether they will face the problem of MIT. These empirical findings have significant policy implications.
2019-12-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98672/1/MPRA_paper_98672.pdf
Furuoka, Fumitaka and Pui, Kiew Ling and Ezeoke, Chinyere Mary Rose and Jacob, Ray Ikechukwu and Yaya, OlaOluwa S (2019): Growth Slowdowns and Middle-Income Trap: Evidence from New Unit Root Framework. Published in: The Singapore Economic Review No. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590820500083
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:99465
2020-04-08T11:28:39Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433633
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99465/
Low sample size and regression: A Monte Carlo approach
Riveros Gavilanes, John Michael
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C19 - Other
C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling
This article performs simulations with different small samples considering the regression techniques of OLS, Jackknife, Bootstrap, Lasso and Robust Regression in order to stablish the best approach in terms of lower bias and statistical significance with a pre-specified data generating process -DGP-. The methodology consists of a DGP with 5 variables and 1 constant parameter which was regressed among the simulations with a set of random normally distributed variables considering samples sizes of 6, 10, 20 and 500. Using the expected values discriminated by each sample size, the accuracy of the estimators was calculated in terms of the relative bias for each technique. The results indicate that Jackknife approach is more suitable for lower sample sizes as it was stated by Speed (1994), Bootstrap approach reported to be sensitive to a lower sample size indicating that it might not be suitable for stablish significant relationships in the regressions. The Monte Carlo simulations also reflected that when a significant relationship is found in small samples, this relationship will also tend to remain significant when the sample size is increased.
2019-11-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99465/1/MPRA_paper_99465.pdf
Riveros Gavilanes, John Michael (2019): Low sample size and regression: A Monte Carlo approach. Published in: Journal of Applied Economic Sciences , Vol. XV, No. 1(67) (30 March 2020): pp. 22-44.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:109372
2021-08-26T08:29:48Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3137
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109372/
Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach
Yaya, OlaOluwa S
Vo, Xuan Vinh
Adekoya, Oluwasegun B.
C19 - Other
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
N17 - Africa ; Oceania
This paper investigates the possibility of middle-income convergence among seven members of Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), with Malaysia being in upper-middle-income rank and other six countries in lower-middle-income rank. We apply unit root testing framework that allows for smooth nonlinearity, abrupt break, and cross-dependence in the income differences. Results show that these lower-middle-income countries are likely to converge among themselves, and also converge to the income level of Malaysia in the long run. Economic policies capable of stimulating long-run economic growth of these lower-middle-income countries is therefore recommended, and the countries should be ready to take up the challenge of upper-income country, like Malaysia.
2021
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109372/1/MPRA_paper_109372.pdf
Yaya, OlaOluwa S and Vo, Xuan Vinh and Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. (2021): Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:110858
2021-11-29T09:51:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433338
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433435
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433630
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433830
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433837
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433838
7375626A656374733D49:4931:493139
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3534
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110858/
(SARS-CoV-2) COVID 19: Vigilancia genómica y evaluación del impacto en la población hablante de lengua indígena en México
Medel-Ramírez, Carlos
Medel-López, Hilario
Lara-Mérida, Jennifer
C02 - Mathematical Methods
C19 - Other
C38 - Classification Methods ; Cluster Analysis ; Principal Components ; Factor Models
C45 - Neural Networks and Related Topics
C60 - General
C80 - General
C87 - Econometric Software
C88 - Other Computer Software
I19 - Other
O54 - Latin America ; Caribbean
The importance of the working document is that it allows the analysis of information and cases associated with (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19, based on the daily information generated by the Government of Mexico through the Secretariat of Health, responsible for the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases (SVEERV). The information in the SVEERV is disseminated as open data, and the level of information is displayed at the municipal, state and national levels. On the other hand, the monitoring of the genomic surveillance of (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19, through the identification of variants and mutations, is registered in the database of the Information System of the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) based in Germany. These two sources of information SVEERV and GISAID provide the information for the analysis of the impact of (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19 on the population in Mexico. The first data source identifies information, at the national level, on patients according to age, sex, comorbidities and COVID-19 presence (SARS-CoV-2), among other characteristics. The data analysis is carried out by means of the design of an algorithm applying data mining techniques and methodology, to estimate the case fatality rate, positivity index and identify a typology according to the severity of the infection identified in patients who present a positive result. for (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19. From the second data source, information is obtained worldwide on the new variants and mutations of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), providing valuable information for timely genomic surveillance. This study analyzes the impact of (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19 on the indigenous language-speaking population, it allows us to provide information, quickly and in a timely manner, to support the design of public policy on health.
2021-11-28
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110858/1/MPRA_paper_110858.pdf
Medel-Ramírez, Carlos and Medel-López, Hilario and Lara-Mérida, Jennifer (2021): (SARS-CoV-2) COVID 19: Vigilancia genómica y evaluación del impacto en la población hablante de lengua indígena en México.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:111735
2022-02-04T00:24:14Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433635
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473131
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111735/
Cryptocurrencies, Diversification and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Allen, David
C19 - Other
C65 - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
G01 - Financial Crises
G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions
The paper features an analysis of cryptocurrencies and the impact of the COVID-
19 pandemic on their effectiveness as a portfolio diversification tool. It does so
by exploring the correlations between the continuously compounded returns
on Bitcoin, Ethereum and the S&P500 Index, using a variety of parametric
and non-parametric techniques. These methods include linear standard metrics
such as the application of ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and the
Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall's tau measures of association. In addition, nonlinear, non-parametric measures such as the Generalised Measure of Correlation
(GMC), and non-parametric copula estimates are applied. The results across
this range of measures are consistent. The metrics suggest that whilst the shock
of the COVID-18 pandemic does not appear to have increased the correlations
between the crypto currency series, it does appear to have increased the correlations
between the returns on crypto currencies and those on the S&P500 Index.
This suggests that investment in cryptocurrencies is not likely to offer key
diversification strategies in times of crisis, on the basis of evidence provided
by this crisis
2021-12-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111735/1/MPRA_paper_111735.pdf
Allen, David (2021): Cryptocurrencies, Diversification and the COVID-19 Pandemic.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:112897
2022-05-02T10:17:49Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D51:5134:513432
7375626A656374733D51:5134:513437
7375626A656374733D51:5135
7375626A656374733D51:5135:513534
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112897/
Il consumo di energia da fonti rinnovabili in Europa dal 2004 al 2019: uno studio basato sulla cluster analysis
Bedetti, Alessandro
C19 - Other
Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources
Q47 - Energy Forecasting
Q5 - Environmental Economics
Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming
This article aims to apply the statistical technique of hierarchical cluster analysis on a dataset in historical time series on the gross final consumption of energy from renewable sources in Europe from 2004 to 2019. The application of this method was very important for the creation of homogeneous groups with internal cohesion and external validity and to identify the different speeds with which EU countries have implemented their race towards the quotas established by Directive 2009/28 / EC of consumption of energy from renewable sources to be achieved in 2020.
2022-04-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112897/1/MPRA_paper_112897.pdf
Bedetti, Alessandro (2022): Il consumo di energia da fonti rinnovabili in Europa dal 2004 al 2019: uno studio basato sulla cluster analysis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:117435
2023-05-30T13:48:07Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/117435/
Estimation and Inference of Linear Trend Slope Ratios with an Application to Global Temperature Data
Vogelsang, Timothy
Nawaz, Nasreen
C13 - Estimation: General
C19 - Other
We focus on estimation and inference of the ratio of trend slopes between two time series where the trending behavior of each series can be well approximated by a simple linear time trend. Our methodological results are motivated by a recent empirical climate literature that seeks to estimate and test hypotheses about the relative rate of warming in the lower-troposphere relative to surface warming - the so-called amplification ratio. We analyze the statistical properties of several estimators and test statistics that are configured to allow serial correlation in the data. The relative merits of the estimators and test statistics depend on the magnitude of the trend slopes relative to the noise in the data. Based on asymptotic theory and finite sample evidence, we make specific and concrete recommendations for practitioners. We apply the recommended estimator and confidence intervals to temperature data from the 1979-2014 period. We find that amplification ratios typically associated with climate models are rejected by the observed temperature data confirming and extending the empirical findings of Klotzbach et al (2009, 2010). Allowing for a structural change at the end of 1998 to account for the so-called "hiatus" in warming gives results similar to Klotzbach et al (2009, 2010).
2015-01-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/117435/1/Trend-slopes-ratio-june-2016.pdf
Vogelsang, Timothy and Nawaz, Nasreen (2015): Estimation and Inference of Linear Trend Slope Ratios with an Application to Global Temperature Data. Published in: Journal of Time Series Analysis , Vol. 5, No. 38 (2017): pp. 640-667.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:119069
2023-11-07T08:42:20Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433139
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D51:5135:513534
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119069/
Impactos climáticos y económicos de El Niño Oscilación del Sur: Evidencia en PIB agrícola de Bolivia
Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan
Pareja Marín, Caroline Andrea
C19 - Other
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming
La investigación analiza los efectos de los fenómenos climáticos extremos registrados en El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) en la producción agrícola y el PIB agrícola de Bolivia. Los resultados muestran que condiciones atmosféricas adversas tienen un efecto negativo en el desempeño del PIB Agrícola, una pérdida de 1,2pp y 0,39pp, en la tasa de crecimiento del PIB de Productos Agrícolas No Industriales e Industriales, respectivamente. El escenario contra-factual estimado muestra que en ausencia de eventos climáticos, el PIB Agrícola de Bolivia perdió Bs66.301 millones entre 1991 y 2022
2023-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119069/1/MPRA_paper_119069.pdf
Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan and Pareja Marín, Caroline Andrea (2023): Impactos climáticos y económicos de El Niño Oscilación del Sur: Evidencia en PIB agrícola de Bolivia.
es