2024-03-29T15:59:43Z
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/cgi/oai2
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:152
2019-10-02T16:47:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/152/
Reflections of the New Economy on the monetary policy and central banking
Akyazi, Haydar
Artan, Seyfettin
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
Developments in the information and communication technologies have been causing
significant changes on the working mechanisms of the economy both at the national and
international areas. Some of the developments can be indicated as follows: the dramatic
increasing of capital movements amongst nations; the speeding of global economic integration;the effects of world’s financial markets; the creation of new payment mechanisms; the decreasing of transaction and knowledge costs; getting the information in a permanent and fast way; the fluctuations in financial markets; increasing potential growth and productivity rates. It is possible to summarize the mentioned developments with the concept of “new economy”. In this paper, the reflections of new economy on monetary policies and central banking are examined.
According to the results of this study, the views about monetary policies and central banks will no longer exist in the future is not realistic. As far as we are concerned, central banks will continue to guarantee the stability of financial system all over the world as was the case in the past.
2006-05-24
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/152/1/MPRA_paper_152.pdf
Akyazi, Haydar and Artan, Seyfettin (2006): Reflections of the New Economy on the monetary policy and central banking.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:396
2019-10-02T15:11:08Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/396/
Romania: From the quantitative monetary aggregates to inflation targeting
Voicu, Ionut Cristian
Constantin, Floricel
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
For Romania, the shift from monetary targeting toward inflation targeting was done under the influences of following events:
- The existing pressure coming from refinancing the public debt and from the necessity to remain in certain boundary with the budgetary deficit.
- NBR assigned monetary control and liquidity management functions on the mechanism of minimum required reserves.
- Romanian strategy was deeply hurt by the low development of its financial markets, and the low level of monetization.
- A precondition of potential success in the case of inflation targeting was fulfilled - the improvement of taxes collection and the reduction of money laundry.
- The important amounts of quantitative increases in Foreign Direct Investment (yearly Euro 4 billion), and also in the rest of M2’s components, forced the necessity of a new strategy based mainly on non-monetary aggregates
2006-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/396/1/MPRA_paper_396.pdf
Voicu, Ionut Cristian and Constantin, Floricel (2006): Romania: From the quantitative monetary aggregates to inflation targeting.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:603
2019-09-28T16:29:34Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3333
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/603/
The reflections of new economy on monetary policy and central banking
Haydar, Akyazi
Seyfettin, Artan
O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Developments in the information and communication technologies have been causing significant changes on the working mechanisms of the economy both at the national and international areas. Some of the developments can be indicated as follows: the dramatic increasing of capital movements amongst nations; the speeding of global economic integration; the effects of world’s financial markets; the creation of new payment mechanisms; the decreasing of transaction and knowledge costs; getting the information in a permanent and fast way; the fluctuations in financial markets; increasing potential growth and productivity rates. It is possible to summarize the mentioned developments with the concept of “new economy”. In this paper, the reflections of new economy on monetary policy and central banking are examined. According to the results of this study, the views about monetary policy and central banks will no longer exist in the future is not realistic. As far as we are concerned, central banks will continue to guarantee the stability of financial system all over the world as was the case in the past.
2006-05-24
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/603/1/MPRA_paper_603.pdf
Haydar, Akyazi and Seyfettin, Artan (2006): The reflections of new economy on monetary policy and central banking.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:692
2019-09-28T22:38:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
7375626A656374733D47:4730
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/692/
The Distribution and Dispersion of Debt Burden Ratios Among Households in Poland and its Implications for Financial Stability
Dawid, Żochowski
Sławomir, Zajączkowski
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
G0 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Debt burden ratio as measured on the aggregate level does not give an adequate assessment of the ability of the household sector to repay its debt. The low level of financial deepening in Poland is primarily reflected in a low percentage of households that have been granted a loan. Therefore, the average debt burden for households, which have any debt outstandings could be much higher than the one measured on the aggregate level. If the debt is concentrated among groups of households with lower incomes, it can threat the financial stability in case of FX or interest rate shocks. Using the data from Polish Households Budget Survey we first define three different measures of debt burden and calculate its dispersion in time and distribution among income groups. We find that (1) the total debt service burden and loan service burden ratios are on lower levels than in other European countries and recently have not risen substantially, (2) the mortgage debt service burden ratio has been rapidly increasing in the last four years especially in lower income groups of households reaching in 2004 the 3/4 of the level noted in EU-15. In comparison with EU it seems that the level of indebtedness of house- holds in Poland is on a secure level. However, we notice that the secure level of debt burden ratio is on a lower level in emerging market countries than in wealthier countries because of the higher share of basic living costs in total consumption expenditure. Therefore, the increasing levels of mortgage debt service ratios in lower-income groups could pose a potential threat to the financial stability in case of FX or interest rate shock.
2006-07-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/692/1/MPRA_paper_692.pdf
Dawid, Żochowski and Sławomir, Zajączkowski (2006): The Distribution and Dispersion of Debt Burden Ratios Among Households in Poland and its Implications for Financial Stability.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:845
2019-09-27T00:48:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453433
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/845/
Real-Time Time-Varying Equilibrium Interest Rates: Evidence on the Czech Republic
Horvath, Roman
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 - Monetary Policy
This paper examines (real-time) equilibrium interest rates in the Czech Republic in 2001:1-2005:12 estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. First, we estimate it using GMM. Second, we apply structural time-varying coefficient model with endogenous regressors to evaluate fluctuations of equilibrium interest rate over time. The results suggest that there is substantial interest rate smoothing and central bank primarily responds to inflation (forecast) developments. The estimated parameters seem to sustain the equilibrium determinacy. We find that the equilibrium interest rates gradually decreased over sample period to the levels comparable to those of in the euro area reflecting capital accumulation, smaller risk premium and successful disinflation in the Czech economy.
2006-10-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/845/1/MPRA_paper_845.pdf
Horvath, Roman (2006): Real-Time Time-Varying Equilibrium Interest Rates: Evidence on the Czech Republic.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:879
2019-10-02T09:55:02Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/879/
Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members
Filacek, Jan
Horvath, Roman
Skorepa, Michal
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
E52 - Monetary Policy
This article analyzes the main issues for monetary policy in new EU member states before their euro adoption. These are typically rooted in the challenge of fulfilling concurrently of the Maastricht inflation and exchange rate criterion, as these countries are experiencing equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation. In this article we first distinguish between the wording, written interpretation and “revealed” interpretation of the inflation and exchange rate criteria. Then we discuss the options for monetary policy in the period of fulfilment of these criteria in terms of its transparency, its continuity with the previous monetary policy regime, the choice of central parity for the ERM II, the setting of the fluctuation bandwidth, the probability of fulfilment of both criteria and the impact on economic stability.
2006-09-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/879/1/MPRA_paper_879.pdf
Filacek, Jan and Horvath, Roman and Skorepa, Michal (2006): Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:914
2019-09-30T01:54:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/914/
Modelling Central Bank Intervention Activity under Inflation Targeting
Horvath, Roman
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
Using daily data from the Czech Republic in 1/1/1998-31/12/2002, we find that foreign exchange intervention activity is determined by the degree of exchange rate misalignment and lagged intervention. Additionally, inflation targeting regime is a binding constraint of intervention activity.
2006-05-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/914/1/MPRA_paper_914.pdf
Horvath, Roman (2006): Modelling Central Bank Intervention Activity under Inflation Targeting.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:942
2019-09-29T11:59:22Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473131
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/942/
El efecto de las intervenciones cambiarias: la experiencia colombiana 2004-2006
Hernández Monsalve, Mauricio Alberto
Mesa Callejas, Ramón Javier
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - Foreign Exchange
E52 - Monetary Policy
G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions
El objetivo de este artículo es medir el tamaño relativo de las intervenciones cambiarias realizadas en el periodo de la revaluación del peso, entre 2004 y 2006, y calcular la efectividad de éstas en cuanto a sus efectos sobre la media y la varianza del tipo de cambio nominal. La propuesta de un modelo de determinación del tipo de cambio, que parte del modelo de balance de portafolio, y el uso de un índice de intervención construido para el caso colombiano, permiten concluir que las intervenciones del Banco de la República, con miras a defender el régimen de flotación controlada, han tenido efectos pequeños y transitorios en el nivel y la varianza del tipo de cambio, presentando rezagos de varios días y siendo descontadas rápidamente por el mercado
2006-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/942/1/MPRA_paper_942.pdf
Hernández Monsalve, Mauricio Alberto and Mesa Callejas, Ramón Javier (2006): El efecto de las intervenciones cambiarias: la experiencia colombiana 2004-2006. Published in: Borradores del CIE No. 24 (October 2006): pp. 1-29.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1004
2019-09-26T17:48:11Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1004/
An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art
Ielpo, Florian
Guégan, Dominique
E52 - Monetary Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
The classical Taylor rules usually do not yield the same estimation error when working in a monthly or a quarterly framework. This brings us to the conclusion that there must be something that monthly Taylor rules can capture and that the quarterly one cannot: we postulate that it simply boils down to the fact that the target rate's changes are irregularly spaced in time. So as to tackle this issue, we propose to split the target rate chronicle between changes in the target and the associated durations, that is the time spending between two changes in the target rate. In this framework, we propose to consider that changes in rate can be regarded as a real monetary policy decision, whereas the duration period between two changes can be related to a "wait and see" position or some fine tuning problematic. To show that both these features of monetary policy do not react to the same fundamentals, we propose an econometric understanding of the Fed's reaction function using a new model derived from financial econometrics that has been proposed by Engle and Russell (2005). We propose to model the changes in target rates with a classical ordered probit and the durations with an autoregressive conditional duration model. We extracted the Fed anticipations regarding inflation and activity using some factor based method, and used these factors as explanatory variables for the changes in rates and the related durations. We show that the target rate level, the scale of the change in target rate and the associated duration do not necessarily react to the same factors and if they do, the impact can be different. This empirical result supports the idea that durations and scale of the change in target rate deserve equal attention when modeling a Central Bank reaction function.
2006-03-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1004/1/MPRA_paper_1004.pdf
Ielpo, Florian and Guégan, Dominique (2006): An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1039
2019-10-02T15:10:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1039/
An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art
Ielpo, Florian
Guégan, Dominique
E52 - Monetary Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
The classical Taylor rules usually do not yield the same estimation error when
working in a monthly or a quarterly framework. This brings us to the conclusion
that there must be something that monthly Taylor rules can capture and that the
quarterly one cannot: we postulate that it simply boils down to the fact that the
target rate’s changes are irregularly spaced in time. So as to tackle this issue, we
propose to split the target rate chronicle between changes in the target and the
associated durations, that is the time spending between two changes in the target
rate. In this framework, we propose to consider that changes in rate can be regarded
as a real monetary policy decision, whereas the duration period between two changes
can be related to a ”wait and see” position or some fine tuning problematic. To show
that both these features of monetary policy do not react to the same fundamentals,
we propose an econometric understanding of the Fed’s reaction function using a new
model derived from financial econometrics that has been proposed by Engle and
Russell (2005). We propose to model the changes in target rates with a classical
ordered probit and the durations with an autoregressive conditional duration model.
We extracted the Fed anticipations regarding inflation and activity using some factor
based method, and used these factors as explanatory variables for the changes in
rates and the related durations. We show that the target rate level, the scale of
the change in target rate and the associated duration do not necessarily react to
the same factors and if they do, the impact can be different. This empirical result
supports the idea that durations and scale of the change in target rate deserve equal
attention when modeling a Central Bank reaction function.
2006-03-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1039/1/MPRA_paper_1039.pdf
Ielpo, Florian and Guégan, Dominique (2006): An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1094
2019-09-26T19:45:44Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1094/
Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison
Dibartolomeo, Giovanni
Rossi, Lorenza
Tancioni, Massimiliano
E50 - General
E52 - Monetary Policy
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper develops a simple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with rule-of-thumb consumers and external habits. Our theoretical model has a closed-form solution which allows the analytical derivation of its dynamical and stability properties. These properties are analyzed and discussed in the light of their implications for the efficacy and the calibration of the conduct of the monetary policy. The model is then evaluated empirically, employing numerical simulations based on Monte Carlo Bayesian estimates of the structural parameters and impulse response analyses based on weakly identified SVECMs. The estimates are repeated for each of the G7 national economies. Providing single country estimates and simulations, we derive some indications on the relative efficacy of monetary policy and of its potential asymmetric effects resulting from the heterogeneity of the estimated models.
2004-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1094/1/MPRA_paper_1094.pdf
Dibartolomeo, Giovanni and Rossi, Lorenza and Tancioni, Massimiliano (2004): Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1123
2019-09-29T22:34:04Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1123/
The effectiveness of official intervention in foreign exchange market in Malawi
Simwaka, Kisu
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
The Malawi Kwacha was floated in February 1994. Since then, the Reserve Bank of Malawi has periodically intervened in the foreign exchange market. This paper analyses the effectiveness of foreign exchange market interventions carried out by the Reserve Bank of Malawi. We use a GARCH (1, 1) model to simultaneously estimate the effect of intervention on the mean and volatility of the Malawi kwacha.
Using monthly exchange rates and official intervention data from January 2002 to February 2006, the empirical results suggest that intervention activities of the Reserve Bank of Malawi affect the kwacha. In line with similar findings elsewhere in the literature, the paper finds that net sales of dollars by the Reserve Bank of Malawi depreciate, rather than appreciate, the kwacha. This effect is very small, however. Moreover, the paper also finds that the Reserve Bank of Malawi intervention reduces the volatility of the kwacha. This shows that the Reserve Bank actually achieves its objective of smoothing out fluctuations of the kwacha. This can be evidenced by the stability of the kwacha during a greater part of 2004. Thus intervention is, to some extent, used as an effective tool for moderating fluctuations of the kwacha. However, its effectiveness is constrained by the amounts of foreign exchange reserves, which are usually low.
2006-11-20
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1123/1/MPRA_paper_1123.pdf
Simwaka, Kisu (2006): The effectiveness of official intervention in foreign exchange market in Malawi. Forthcoming in:
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1180
2019-09-26T10:14:33Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1180/
Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?
Horvath, Roman
Komarek, Lubos
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
F31 - Foreign Exchange
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
In this paper we discuss the estimation and methodology of the real equilibrium exchange rate partial equilibrium models and analyze to what extent the resulting estimates are applicable for setting the central parity prior to ERM II entry in the new EU member states. Given the uncertainty surrounding the estimates, we argue that they are informative in the sign rather than the size of the misalignment of the exchange rate, but may still serve as useful consistency checks for the decision on the setting of the central parity. We argue that policy makers should consider the estimates in their decision-making only if the real exchange rate is substantially misaligned.
2006-10-20
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1180/1/MPRA_paper_1180.pdf
Horvath, Roman and Komarek, Lubos (2006): Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1196
2019-10-24T17:12:58Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1240
2019-09-26T11:59:38Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1240/
The Eventual Failure and Price Indeterminacy of Inflation Targeting
Eagle, David
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E52 - Monetary Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
In stark contrast to the previous literature, we find that IT leads to price indeterminacy even when the central bank uses a Taylor-like feedback rule to peg the nominal interest rate. We also find that there is no mechanism with IT to determine the current inflation rate or price level. We conclude that the previous literature has either committed mathematical errors involving infinity or misused the non-explosive criterion for ruling out speculative bubbles. To avoid making errors involving infinity, we analyze inflation targeting (IT) in a typical rational-expectations, pure-exchange, general-equilibrium model where the time horizon is arbitrarily large, but finite.
2006-11-22
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1240/1/MPRA_paper_1240.pdf
Eagle, David (2006): The Eventual Failure and Price Indeterminacy of Inflation Targeting.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1470
2019-09-26T09:23:29Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1470/
A Simple Model Of Currency Crises And Budget Deficits: The Case Of Turkey
Ongan, Tevfik Hakan
Karabulut, Gökhan
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E52 - Monetary Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
The aim of this paper is to explore the determinants of currency crises and to illustrate the dynamic behaviour of the fundamental macroeconomic variables in a small open economy under a peg regime. The mainstream models in currency crises literature are not sufficiently available to explain the recent Turkish currency crisis observed in 2000. Turkey was successful to fix domestic credit at the same time with a crawling peg regime in order to achieve price stability. Furthermore, the political preferences were also in favour of continuing the program. Though these facts, the peg collapsed by a speculative attack. Depending on these issues, in our model, which uses a Keynesian framework augmented with a speculative foreign exchange market, it has been focused on the fundamental macroeconomic relationship between budget and trade deficits. Our theoretical model and the simulation results indicate that whether the deficit is financed by monetisation or domestic borrowing, persisting budget deficits cause the peg system to collapse. Overborrowing problems and deterioating balance sheets also play an important role on the unsustainability of the peg regime.
2004
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1470/1/MPRA_paper_1470.pdf
Ongan, Tevfik Hakan and Karabulut, Gökhan (2004): A Simple Model Of Currency Crises And Budget Deficits: The Case Of Turkey. Published in: Maliye Araştırma Konferansları , Vol. 46, (2004): pp. 206-225.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1538
2019-10-06T02:12:56Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1538/
Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting
Eagle, David
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E52 - Monetary Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
The economic profession should demand that that price-determinacy literature adhere to normal academic standards and burdens of proof. By presenting two examples where the non-exploding criterion fails miserably, we demonstrate that that criterion does not universally apply. Therefore, the previous price-determinacy literature has the burden to prove that the non-explosive criterion does apply, but has not met and probably cannot meet that burden. This paper looks at an economy with an arbitrarily large, but finite horizon and concludes that inflation targeting leads to price indeterminacy even with a Taylor-like feedback rule for setting the nominal interest rate.
2007-01-18
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1538/1/MPRA_paper_1538.pdf
Eagle, David (2007): Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1650
2019-10-02T04:44:03Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1650/
The Taylor rule: can it be supported by the data?
Leon, Costas
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
The Taylor equation is a simple monetary policy rule that determines the Central Bank’s policy rate as a function of inflation and output. A significant body of literature verifies the consistency of the Taylor rule with the data. However, recently there has been a growing literature regarding the validity of the estimated parameters due to the non-stationarity of the interest rate. In this paper I test the consistency of the Taylor rule with the Greek data for the period 1996-2004. It appears that the data do not support the Taylor rule in the sense that they do not form a cointegration set of variables. Therefore, the estimated parameters should be considered fragile and the forecasting for the interest rate as a function of inflation and output should not be expected to be adequately consistent with the actual data.
2006-08-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1650/1/MPRA_paper_1650.pdf
Leon, Costas (2006): The Taylor rule: can it be supported by the data?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1838
2019-09-26T09:13:18Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1838/
Why should central banks be independent?
Harashima, Taiji
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
Most explanations for the necessity of an independent central bank rely on the time-inconsistency model and therefore assume that governments are weak, foolish, or untruthful and tend to cheat people. The model in this paper indicates, however, that an independent central bank is not necessary because governments are weak or foolish. Central banks must be independent because governments are economic Leviathans. Only by severing the link between the political will of a Leviathan government and economic activities is inflation perfectly guaranteed not to accelerate. A truly independent central bank is necessary because it severs this link.
2007-01-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1838/1/MPRA_paper_1838.pdf
Harashima, Taiji (2007): Why should central banks be independent?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1876
2019-09-29T04:44:12Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433135
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1876/
Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison
Dibartolomeo, Giovanni
Rossi, Lorenza
Tancioni, Massimiliano
E50 - General
E52 - Monetary Policy
C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper develops a simple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with rule-of-thumb consumers and external habits. Our theoretical model has a closed-form solution which allows the analytical derivation of its dynamical and stability properties. These properties are analyzed and discussed in the light of their implications for the efficacy and the calibration of the conduct of the monetary policy. The model is then evaluated empirically, employing numerical simulations based on Monte Carlo Bayesian estimates of the structural parameters and impulse response analyses based on weakly identified SVECMs. The estimates are repeated for each of the G7 national economies. Providing single country estimates and simulations, we derive some indications on the relative efficacy of monetary policy and of its potential asymmetric effects resulting from the heterogeneity of the estimated models.
2004-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1876/1/MPRA_paper_1876.pdf
Dibartolomeo, Giovanni and Rossi, Lorenza and Tancioni, Massimiliano (2004): Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1883
2019-10-08T04:42:12Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1883/
The eventual failure and price indeterminacy of inflation targeting
Eagle, David
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
In stark contrast to the previous literature, we find that IT leads to price indeterminacy even when the central bank uses a Taylor-like feedback rule to peg the nominal interest rate. We also find that there is no mechanism with IT to determine the current inflation rate or price level. We conclude that the previous literature has either committed mathematical errors involving infinity or misused the non-explosive criterion for ruling out speculative bubbles. To avoid making errors involving infinity, we analyze inflation targeting (IT) in a typical rational-expectations, pure-exchange, general-equilibrium model where the time horizon is arbitrarily large, but finite.
2006-11-22
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1883/1/MPRA_paper_1883.pdf
Eagle, David (2006): The eventual failure and price indeterminacy of inflation targeting.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1885
2019-09-28T12:46:50Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1885/
Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting
Eagle, David
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
By presenting two examples where the non-exploding criterion fails miserably, we demonstrate that that criterion does not universally apply. Therefore, by normal academic standards and burdens of proof, the previous price-determinacy literature has the burden to prove that the non-explosive criterion does apply to their models. However, that literature has not met and probably cannot meet that burden. Instead of using the non-explosive criterion, this paper looks at an economy with an arbitrarily large, but finite horizon and concludes that inflation targeting leads to price indeterminacy even with a Taylor-like feedback rule for setting the nominal interest rate.
2007-01-18
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1885/1/MPRA_paper_1885.pdf
Eagle, David (2007): Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2011
2019-09-27T00:00:30Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2011/
Banking Sector Integration and Competition in CEMAC
Saab, Samer
Vacher, Jerome
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper considers the extent of retail banking integration in the Communauté Economique et Monétaire d'Afrique Centrale (CEMAC) and the level of bank competition at the regional level. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative indicators, the paper finds some evidence of price convergence in average interest rate spreads. However, this observed fact is not supported by an increase in cross-border flows in retail loans and deposits, and price convergence may merely reflect excess liquidity in the region. Other data also indicate that bank competition within the CEMAC as a region is limited, complementing the findings on integration. Addressing shortfalls in legal and regulatory frameworks, infrastructure, and markets would facilitate integration.
2007-01-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2011/1/MPRA_paper_2011.pdf
Saab, Samer and Vacher, Jerome (2007): Banking Sector Integration and Competition in CEMAC.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2150
2019-09-27T16:47:51Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2150/
Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilisation in Pakistan
Qayyum, Abdul
Khan, Arshad
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
In this study an attempt has been made to develop and estimate the domestic credit policy reaction function to analyse the monetary implications of interventions and sterilisation policy in Pakistan using quarterly data ranging from 1982 Q3 through 2001 Q2. By employing Johansen multivariate cointegration technique, this paper has considered the degree of sterilisation that the Pakistan has used in controlling capital flows.
The evidence suggests that Pakistan sterilises around 72 percent of international reserve inflows in the long-run while 88 percent in the short-run during the period of study.
2003
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2150/1/MPRA_paper_2150.pdf
Qayyum, Abdul and Khan, Arshad (2003): Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilisation in Pakistan. Published in: The Pakistan Development Review , Vol. 42, No. 4 (2003): pp. 975-985.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2153
2019-10-01T19:29:03Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2153/
Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan
Qayyum, Abdul
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper estimated Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) of inflation variable for Pakistan by using monthly data from June 1990 to June 2001. Before calculating MCI we have estimated weights of interest rate and exchange rate to be used in the construction of MCI. For this purpose we used unit root analysis and Johenson (1988) maximum likelihood method base on vector autoregressive technology. The estimated monetary conditions ratio for Pakistan is around 2.79:1. Finally we have constructed the MCI by utilising the estimated weights of rate of interest and exchange rate. The analysis indicate overall tight monetary policy during the decade. However there is some easing spell during 1997 to 1999. This shows the determinedness of monetary authorities with objective of keeping inflation low. Low inflation at the end of the decade indicates the success of monetary authorities in the conduct of monetary policy in achieving the target of low inflation.
2002
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2153/1/MPRA_paper_2153.pdf
Qayyum, Abdul (2002): Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan. Published in: The Pakistan Development Review , Vol. 41, No. 4 (2002): pp. 551-566.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2328
2019-09-30T12:54:21Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2328/
Central bank intervention, sterilization and monetary independence: the case of Pakistan
Waheed, Muhammad
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
This paper analyzes the response of the State bank of Pakistan—the central bank, to foreign exchange inflows for the period of 2001:1 to 2006:8. In this context, we estimated sterilization and offset coefficients using vector autoregression (VAR) model to account for the issue of endogeneity of domestic credit with the foreign exchange interventions. In addition, the paper also analyzes the role of foreign and domestic interest rate differentials in pulling in or pushing out of these foreign exchange flows. We found that the offset coefficient is very small and insignificant (0.16) implying that changes in credit resulted in very minimal offsetting reserve flows. The study found out that for the sample period, SBP only partially sterilized the inflows with magnitude of coefficient at (0.50) confirming the stylized facts. Results also indicate that inflows were neither pulled into the country due to high domestic interest rates due to some domestic policy nor they are pushed into Pakistan owing to low interest rates abroad.
2007-03-16
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2328/1/MPRA_paper_2328.pdf
Waheed, Muhammad (2007): Central bank intervention, sterilization and monetary independence: the case of Pakistan.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2486
2019-09-26T18:59:12Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2486/
Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the New Economy: Evidence from Turkey (1997-2006)
Cifter, Atilla
Ozun, Alper
E4 - Money and Interest Rates
E52 - Monetary Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
This study aims to test the money base, money supply, credit capacity, industrial production index, interest rates, inflation and real exchange rate data of Turkey during the years 1997 – 2006 through the monetary transmission mechanism and passive money hypothesis using the vector error correction model based causality test. Empirical findings show that the passive money supply hypothesis of the new Keynesian economy is supported in part by accommodationalist views and they do not confirm to the view points of structuralist and liquidity preference theorist. However, according to the monetary transmission mechanism it has been established that long-term money supply only affects general price levels and production is influenced by interest rates in the new economy period for Turkish economy. Empirical findings show that in the new economy period interest transmission mechanism are brought to the fore.
2007-01-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2486/1/MPRA_paper_2486.pdf
Cifter, Atilla and Ozun, Alper (2007): Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the New Economy: Evidence from Turkey (1997-2006).
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2762
2019-09-27T14:55:06Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D4D:4D33:4D3330
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443231
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443430
7375626A656374733D4D:4D32:4D3230
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D4C:4C31:4C3131
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453132
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D4C:4C31:4C3136
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2762/
Price Rigidity and Flexibility: New Empirical Evidence
Levy, Daniel
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E50 - General
M30 - General
D21 - Firm Behavior: Theory
D40 - General
M20 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure ; Size Distribution of Firms
E12 - Keynes ; Keynesian ; Post-Keynesian
E52 - Monetary Policy
L16 - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change ; Industrial Price Indices
The marketplace, along with its price system, is the single most important institution in a western-style free enterprise economy. The ability of prices to adjust to changes in supply and demand conditions enables the market to function efficiently and lies behind the magical invisible hand mechanism. To the behaviour of prices and in particular to the ability of prices to adjust to changes in market conditions, therefore, have fundamental implications for many key issues in many areas of both microeconomics as well as macroeconomics. It is, therefore, critical to study and understand whether there are barriers to price adjustments, what are the nature of these barriers, how the barriers lead to price rigidity, what are possible implications of these rigidities, etc. This introductory essay briefly summarizes the fourteen empirical studies of price rigidity that are included in this special issue.
2007-04-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2762/1/MPRA_paper_2762.pdf
Levy, Daniel (2007): Price Rigidity and Flexibility: New Empirical Evidence.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2771
2019-09-27T05:25:54Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453431
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453132
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2771/
Liquidity preference as rational behaviour under uncertainty
Mierzejewski, Fernando
E40 - General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E41 - Demand for Money
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E0 - General
E52 - Monetary Policy
E12 - Keynes ; Keynesian ; Post-Keynesian
An important concern of macroeconomic analysis is how interest rates affect the
cash balance demanded at a certain level of nominal income. In fact, the interest-rate-
elasticity of the liquidity demand determines the effectiveness of monetary policy,
which is useless under absolute liquidity preference, i.e. when the money demand is
perfectly elastic. An actuarial approach is developed in this paper for dealing with
random income. Assuming investors face liquidity constraints, a level of surplus exists
which maximises expected value. Moreover, the optimal liquidity demand is expressed
as a Value at Risk and the comonotonic dependence structure determines the amount
of money demanded by the economy. As a consequence, the interest-rate-elasticity
depends on the kind of risks and expectations. The more unstable the economy, the
greater the interest-rate-elasticity of the money demand. Moreover, part of the adjustment
to reestablish the short-run monetary equilibrium may be performed through
volatility shocks.
2006-11-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2771/1/MPRA_paper_2771.pdf
Mierzejewski, Fernando (2006): Liquidity preference as rational behaviour under uncertainty.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3201
2019-09-30T19:52:06Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3201/
Modèle multi pays dans les pays de la zone franc
Dramani, Latif
E50 - General
E52 - Monetary Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
La disponibilité d’un modèle de simulation est d’un grand secours pour le décideur public car un tel outil remplit des fonctions aussi importantes que celles de support à la définition des programmes économiques et financiers, d’instrument de dialogue avec les partenaires au développement, de monitoring des politiques économiques et sociales. Dans cette étude, l’accent est mis sur la mise en place d’un modèle multi pays, qui prend en compte les spécificités de l’Etat, et celles de la banque centrale. Le but principal étant de mettre en évidence les interactions entre les politiques budgétaires et monétaires.
2007-05-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3201/1/MPRA_paper_3201.pdf
Dramani, Latif (2007): Modèle multi pays dans les pays de la zone franc.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3221
2019-10-04T16:50:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4D:4D33:4D3331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3221/
Coordonatele auditului in marketingul financiar-bancar - situatia din Romania
Dura, Codruta
Driga, Imola
M31 - Marketing
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
A10 - General
The general term of internal audit was established in relation to the financial accounting activity; this notion was gradually replaced by a new approach which expands the sphere of the audit so that the preoccupation for the future is very important for any audit activity. If forming and consolidating a favorable image of the bank among service consumers represents a marketing problem, then solving it requires numerous instruments from the marketing policies; the most important role is attributed to the audit. The final goal of the marketing audit is drawing up a table regarding the performances and the efficiency of the bank, in relation to the risks involved by financial institutions and its operations. In this respect, specialists in banking management have come up with different models of calculations and rating systems in their trials to obtain the most accurate scan of the “state of health” of the banks, and moreover in their trials to identify the institutions which face financial and operational difficulties leading to bankruptcy.
The uniform bank rating system is a specific instrument for the supervising activity and has its origins in the USA ; it has later been borrowed by German, Italian, Great Britain authorities, which use influential components in their banking system; later on, their system was adopted by most central banks within the European Union. In Romania, the uniform bank rating system has been implemented by N.B.R. (the National Bank of Romania) since 2000; the specific components that were analyzed are: the capital adequacy (C), the quality of assets (A), the management (M), profitability (P), liquidities (L) and sensitivity (S) starting from the year 2005. For short, this system is called CAMPL. The evaluation of these specific elements represents an important criterion for establishing a compound rating, which means assigning scores to each bank. The compound rating for the banking system is established based on economic – financial indicators and prudence indicators.
2007-04-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3221/1/MPRA_paper_3221.pdf
Dura, Codruta and Driga, Imola (2007): Coordonatele auditului in marketingul financiar-bancar - situatia din Romania.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3355
2019-10-29T05:37:09Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3361
2019-09-27T00:48:24Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3361/
Japanese quantitative easing: The effects and constraints of anti-deflationary monetary expansions
Zammit, Robert
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
An undergraduate dissertation in Monetary Economics. The aim of this dissertation is to empirically analyse the effects of the Bank of Japan’s anti-deflationary Quantitative Easing Policy carried out between March 2001 and April 2006. In doing so, this study also reviews the zero bound to interest rates, defined as the primary constraint to the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy at the interest rate floor. The results of the economic models contained in this study confirm the economic significance of a sustained increase in liquidity in fostering a return to inflationary pressures. Moreover, the findings of the study confirm that effective anti-deflationary policies may not necessarily entail extreme measures on the part of a central bank; on the other hand, credibility coupled with a resolved commitment may very well be enough to provide for positive macroeconomic repercussions.
2006-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3361/1/MPRA_paper_3361.pdf
Zammit, Robert (2006): Japanese quantitative easing: The effects and constraints of anti-deflationary monetary expansions.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3419
2019-09-28T23:03:07Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433631
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3419/
The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001.
Travaglini, Guido
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
This paper combines two major strands of literature: structural breaks and Taylor rules. At first, I propose a nonstandard t-test statistic for detecting multiple level and trend breaks of I(0) series by supplying theoretical and limit-distribution critical values obtained from Montecarlo experimentation. Thereafter, I introduce a forward-looking Taylor rule expressed as a dynamic model which allows for multiple breaks and reaction-function coefficients of the leads of inflation, of the output gap and of an equity market index. Sequential GMM estimation of the model, applied to the Effective Federal Funds Rate for the period 1984:01-2001:06, produces three main interesting results: the existence of significant structural breaks, the substantial role played by inflation in the FOMC decisions and a marked equity targeting policy approach. Such results reveal departures from rationality, determined by structured and unstructured uncertainty, which the Fed systematically attempts at reducing by administering inflation scares and misinformation about the actual Phillips curve, in order to keep the output and equity markets under control.
2007-06-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3419/1/MPRA_paper_3419.pdf
Travaglini, Guido (2007): The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3584
2019-10-04T11:50:25Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D4A:4A35:4A3531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3584/
Is there any scope for corporatism in stabilization policies?
Acocella, Nicola
Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni
Pauwels, Wilfried
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
J51 - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
This paper studies corporatism as the outcome of bargaining between the government and a representative labor union. We show that if negotiations between these two parties only relate to macroeconomic stabilization, corporatism can never be beneficial to both parties. As corporatist policies are nevertheless commonly observed in this context, we discuss possible explanations that reconcile the theory with actual observations. The policy implications of these explanations are also discussed.
2007-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3584/1/MPRA_paper_3584.pdf
Acocella, Nicola and Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni and Pauwels, Wilfried (2007): Is there any scope for corporatism in stabilization policies?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3585
2019-09-29T10:16:00Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D4A:4A35:4A3531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3585/
The Cost of Social Pacts
Acocella, Nicola
Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
J51 - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
Social pacts, while improving macroeconomic performance, usually impose costs on unions. To facilitate the formation of such pacts, various substitutes can operate, such as the payment of transfers or, to some extent, the conservativeness of the government, union’s inflation aversion or political partisanship.
2007-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3585/1/MPRA_paper_3585.pdf
Acocella, Nicola and Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni (2007): The Cost of Social Pacts.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3596
2019-09-27T20:15:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3596/
Optimal exchange rate policy in a low interest rate environment
Pavasuthipaisit, Robert
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper examines optimal exchange policy when nominal interest rates are unusually low, as experienced by several Asian economies and Japan since July 2006. The paper finds that in such environments, it is optimal to create a nominal depreciation to offset contractionary disturbances. However, the limited scope of monetary policy easing may compromise the ability of the central bank to create a nominal depreciation especially if the central bank makes decisions on monetary policy making on a discretionary basis. In order to successfully create a nominal depreciation, the central bank needs to rely on the expectations channel, by making a credible promise to keep its currency weak going forward. Finally, trade liberalization, by enhancing the role of the exchange rate channel on the transmission mechanism, may allow the central bank to achieve lower average inflation.
2007-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3596/1/MPRA_paper_3596.pdf
Pavasuthipaisit, Robert (2007): Optimal exchange rate policy in a low interest rate environment.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3742
2019-09-27T13:16:38Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3742/
On Keynesian effects of (apparent) non-Keynesian fiscal policies
Canale, Rosaria Rita
Foresti, Pasquale
Marani, Ugo
Napolitano, Oreste
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E62 - Fiscal Policy
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the theory that claims restrictive effects of expansionary fiscal policy. It shows that such so-called “non-Keynesian effects” may arise from synchronous and opposite monetary policy interventions. The paper demonstrates this conclusion through a stylized model – supported by an empirical investigation on ECB and FED reaction functions – in which Central Banks consider deficit spending as an element that generates inflation expectations. Econometric analysis also shows that the ECB reacts asymmetrically to deficit spending variations while the FED has a linear reaction to this indicator.
2007-06-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3742/1/MPRA_paper_3742.pdf
Canale, Rosaria Rita and Foresti, Pasquale and Marani, Ugo and Napolitano, Oreste (2007): On Keynesian effects of (apparent) non-Keynesian fiscal policies.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3803
2019-09-27T14:03:38Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3803/
A review of Soludo's perspective of banking sector reforms in Nigeria
Balogun, Emmanuel Dele
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
This paper focuses specifically on the recent Soludo’s banking sector reforms. The study noted that the Soludo’s reforms focused on strengthening the financial systems through banking sector consolidation, foreign exchange market stabilization, interest rates restructuring and the pursuit of stabilization as against structural adjustment policies for monetary and inflationary controls. A review of theoretical qualifications to the Soludo’s reform show that in thoughts, it is rooted in the Classical traditions of Say’s Law, acts monetarist, but expects a Keynesian outcome that money can stimulate expansion in aggregate domestic output. In concluding, the study noted the need to adopt an interest rate operating procedures for monetary policy in addition to moving the economy consciously towards the ‘law of one market and one price’ for the domestic and foreign money markets.
2007-07-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3803/1/MPRA_paper_3803.pdf
Balogun, Emmanuel Dele (2007): A review of Soludo's perspective of banking sector reforms in Nigeria.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3804
2019-09-27T09:25:43Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3804/
Banking sector reforms and the Nigerian economy: performance, pitfalls and future policy options
Balogun, Emmanuel Dele
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
This paper reviews the perspective of banking sector reforms since 1970 to date. It notes four eras of banking sector reforms in Nigeria, viz.: Pre-SAP (1970-85), the Post-SAP (1986-93), the Reforms Lethargy (1993-1998), Pre-Soludo (1999-2004) and Post-Soludo (2005-2006). Using both descriptive statistics and econometric methods, three sets of hypothesis were tested: firstly that each phase of reforms culminated in improved incentives; secondly that policy reforms which results in increased capitalization, exchange rate devaluation; interest rate restructuring and abolition of credit rationing may have had positive effects on real sector credit and thirdly that implicit incentives which accompany the reforms had salutary macroeconomic effects. The empirical results confirm that eras of pursuits of market reforms were characterized by improved incentives. However, these did not translate to increased credit purvey to the real sector. Also while growth was stifled in eras of control, the reforms era was associated with rise in inflationary pressures. Among the pitfalls of reforms identified by the study are faulty premise and wrong sequencing of reforms and a host of conflicts emanating from adopted theoretical models for reforms and above all, frequent reversals and/or non-sustainability of reforms. In concluding, the study notes the need to bolster reforms through the deliberate adoption of policies that would ensure convergence of domestic and international rates of return on financial markets investments.
2007-07-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3804/1/MPRA_paper_3804.pdf
Balogun, Emmanuel Dele (2007): Banking sector reforms and the Nigerian economy: performance, pitfalls and future policy options.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3836
2019-09-30T21:36:11Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3836/
Hyperinflation, disinflation, deflation, etc.: A unified and micro-founded explanation for inflation
Harashima, Taiji
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
In this paper, I present a unified and micro-founded explanation for various types of inflation without assuming ad hoc frictions or irrationality. The explanation is similar to the conventional inflation theory in the sense that an independent central bank can control inflation and also similar to the fiscal theory of the price level in the sense that a source of inflation lies in the behavior of government. Inflation accelerates or decelerates through the simultaneous optimization of a government and the representative household if their time preference rates are heterogeneous. This inflation acceleration mechanism will be prevented from working if a central bank is truly independent.
2007-07-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3836/1/MPRA_paper_3836.pdf
Harashima, Taiji (2007): Hyperinflation, disinflation, deflation, etc.: A unified and micro-founded explanation for inflation.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4085
2019-09-27T16:33:30Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D46:4633
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4085/
Régimes de change: Le chemin vers la flexibilité
Sfia, Mohamed Daly
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F3 - International Finance
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Nous cherchons dans le sillage de travaux tels que Agénor (2004) ou Duttagupta et al (2004) à identifier les principales conditions que doit remplir au préalable une économie avant l’adoption d’un régime de flottement pur du taux de change. Ces dernières englobent le développement du marché des changes, la mise en place d’une nouvelle stratégie de politique monétaire et d’une ancre nominale crédible et le développement du système financier.
2007-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4085/1/MPRA_paper_4085.pdf
Sfia, Mohamed Daly (2007): Régimes de change: Le chemin vers la flexibilité.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4158
2019-10-02T01:56:12Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4158/
Política Monetária e Relação entre PIB Real e Mercado de Ações na Economia Brasileira
Nunes, Mauricio
Da Silva, Sergio
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper presents favorable piece of evidence of the relationship between the
Brazilian real output and its stockmarket. Neglecting this fact may jeopardize
current price stability and economic growth.
2005
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4158/1/MPRA_paper_4158.pdf
Nunes, Mauricio and Da Silva, Sergio (2005): Política Monetária e Relação entre PIB Real e Mercado de Ações na Economia Brasileira. Published in: Indicadores Economicos FEE , Vol. 33, No. 1 (June 2005): pp. 215-230.
pt
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4491
2019-09-26T23:32:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4491/
Monetary policy responses amid credit and asset booms and busts
Pavasuthipaisit, Robert
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E50 - General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper examines the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of credit and asset booms and busts. Conventional wisdom is for the central bank to respond to asset prices and other financial indicators insofar as these factors affect the forecasts of inflation. This paper finds that such strategy is far from being optimal. This paper derives optimal policy under commitment in a standard financial accelerator model and finds that in the optimal equilibrium, the central bank responds to a rise in productivity growth by making a credible commitment to keep the rate of return on capital below the trend. This causes net worth to be countercyclical, which is the key mechanism that allows the central bank to successfully stabilize the economy. The countercyclicality of net worth is consistent with what can be found in the data on the periods following the Volcker chairmanship of the FOMC.
2007-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4491/1/MPRA_paper_4491.pdf
Pavasuthipaisit, Robert (2007): Monetary policy responses amid credit and asset booms and busts.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4892
2019-10-02T02:19:36Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4892/
Money, Income and Prices in Pakistan: A Bi-variat and Tri-varate Causility
Abbas, Kalbe
Fazal, Husain
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
This paper re-examines the causal relationship between money and income and between money and prices in Pakistan. Using an annual data set for Fiscal Years 1959/60 to 2003/04 and employing Co-integration and Error Correction Models as well as the standard Granger Causality analysis we investigate the Bi-variate and Tri-variate causal relationships. The Co-integration analysis indicates, in general, the long run relationship among money, income, and prices. The Error Correction and Granger Causality framework suggest a one way causation from income to money in the long run implying that probably real factors rather than money supply has played a major role in increasing Pakistan’s national income. Regarding the causal relationship between money and prices, the causality framework provides the evidence of bi-variate causality indicating that monetary expansion increases, and is also increased by inflation in Pakistan. However, Money supply seems to be the leader in this case.
2006-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4892/1/MPRA_paper_4892.pdf
Abbas, Kalbe and Fazal, Husain (2006): Money, Income and Prices in Pakistan: A Bi-variat and Tri-varate Causility. Published in: South Asia Economic Journal , Vol. 7, No. 1 (March 2006): pp. 55-65.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4966
2019-09-28T19:18:00Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D50:5032:503234
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453635
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453539
7375626A656374733D4F:4F32:4F3233
7375626A656374733D50:5035:503532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4966/
I currency board come strumento di stabilizzazione economica: come funzionano e dove sono adottati
Cappiello, Antonio
P24 - National Income, Product, and Expenditure ; Money ; Inflation
E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E50 - General
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
E59 - Other
O23 - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
P52 - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
This paper describes the functioning of a currency board within the socio-economic context in which it operates. Special focus is given to the macroeconomic implications of a currency board system compared to a central bank system. In particular the author describes the principles regulating a currency board system (par.3), analyses the most relevant experiences on the adoption of a currency board (par. 5) and its advantages and problems.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4966/1/MPRA_paper_4966.pdf
Cappiello, Antonio (2006): I currency board come strumento di stabilizzazione economica: come funzionano e dove sono adottati. Published in: Quaderni di Studi Europei (2006): pp. 41-63.
it
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5201
2019-09-26T16:58:50Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423533
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5201/
Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets - An Overinvestment View
Schnabl, Gunther
Hoffmann, Andreas
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
B53 - Austrian
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Credit booms have globally fuelled hikes in stock, raw material and real estate markets which have culminated in the recent US subprime market crisis. We explain the global asset market booms since the mid 1980s based on the overinvestment theories of Hayek, Wicksell and Schumpeter. We argue that ample liquidity supply originating in the large industrialized countries has contributed to overinvestment cycles in Japan, East Asia, new markets in the industrial countries and many emerging market economies. Expansionary monetary policies in response to the burst of bubbles are argued to have contributed to vagabonding bubbles around the globe.
2007-09-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5201/1/MPRA_paper_5201.pdf
Schnabl, Gunther and Hoffmann, Andreas (2007): Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets - An Overinvestment View. Published in: CESifo Working Paper , Vol. 2100, (September 2007)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5217
2019-09-29T23:42:23Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5217/
Central Bank transparency and the U.S. interest rates level and volatility response to U.S. news
TUYSUZ, Sukriye
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper investigates the impact of U.S. macroeconomic and monetary news on market interest rate level and volatility. These news relate to Federal Reserve System (FED) target variables and unexpected policy rate changes. It examines whether the fact that FED announces its policy rate decisions immediately after each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting alters the market rate response. These meetings occur regularly at scheduled time since February 1994. It also checks if this transparency measure (i.e. announcing the policy rate immediately after the meetings and regularly at scheduled time) has increased the predictability of FED's rates by the market. The results reveal that after 1994, financial markets can better foresee monetary policy decisions compared to the period when the policy rate was announced with a delay of 45 days after the meetings. Moreover, U.S. interest rate volatility is less affected by the announcements on FED target variables after 1994. In the same way, unexpected monetary policy decisions influence less interest rate level. These results suggest that, in accordance with theory, a greater transparency improves market participants' understanding of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy reaction function. Interestingly, the date on which FED announces the policy rate decision has a greater impact on U.S. interest rate volatility after 1994. This observation suggests that the FED's credibility might have decreased after 1994. However, it is not related to the immediate diffusion of policy rate decisions.
2007-09-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5217/1/MPRA_paper_5217.pdf
TUYSUZ, Sukriye (2007): Central Bank transparency and the U.S. interest rates level and volatility response to U.S. news.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5366
2019-09-26T22:25:35Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5366/
China currency dispute: is a rise in the yuan inevitable, necessary or desirable?
Tatom, John
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
China-bashing has become a popular media and political sport. This is largely due to the U.S. trade imbalance and the belief, by some, that China is responsible for it because it manipulates its currency to hold down the dollar prices of its goods, unfairly creating a trade advantage that has contributed to the loss of U.S. businesses and jobs. This paper reviews the problem of the large trade imbalance that the United States has with China and its relationship to Chinese exchange rate policy. It examines the link between a Chinese renminbi appreciation and the trade balance and also whether a generalized dollar decline could solve the global or Chinese U.S. trade imbalance. The consensus view explained here is that a renminbi appreciation is not likely to fix either the trade imbalance with China or overall. Though these perceived benefits of a managed float are small or non-existent, perhaps they should be pursued anyway because of small costs or even benefits for China. Section IV looks at the costs of a managed float in terms of the benefits of the earlier peg. Opponents of a fixed dollar/yuan exchange rate ignore the costs of a managed float for China, especially with limits on currency convertibility. These costs are outlined here in order to provide an economic basis for the earlier fixed rate and China’s reluctance to appreciate. Finally it is suggested that the necessary convertibility on capital account, toward which China is moving, could easily result in yuan depreciation under a floating rate regime. This is hardly the end that China critics have in mind and it is not one that would improve U.S. or other trade imbalances with China.
2007-07-18
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5366/1/MPRA_paper_5366.pdf
Tatom, John (2007): China currency dispute: is a rise in the yuan inevitable, necessary or desirable?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5581
2019-10-05T00:08:07Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5581/
A Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Kenya
Nandwa, Boaz
Mohan, Ramesh
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
F31 - Foreign Exchange
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
The flexible price monetary model assumes that both the purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) hold continuously. In addition, the model posits that money market equilibrium exists, which helps to determine the exchange rate. This paper explores exchange rate determination in low-income economies by applying a monetary model to Kenya to examine the exchange rate dynamics in a post-float exchange rate regime. We apply a multivariate cointegration and error correction model (ECM) to investigate whether the long-run exchange rate equilibrium and the rate of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium hold, respectively. Finally, we evaluate the relative performance of ECM versus a random walk framework in the out-of-sample forecasting. We find that the random walk performs better than the restricted model.
2007-11-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5581/1/MPRA_paper_5581.pdf
Nandwa, Boaz and Mohan, Ramesh (2007): A Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Kenya.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5608
2020-01-26T15:43:40Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5898
2019-09-29T04:37:50Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5898/
Political Monetary Cycles and a New de facto Ranking of Central Bank Independence
Alpanda, Sami
Honig, Adam
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
This paper examines the extent to which monetary policy is manipulated for political purposes by testing for the presence of political monetary cycles between 1972 and 2001. This is the first study of its kind to include not only advanced countries but also a large sample of developing nations where these cycles are more likely to exist. We estimate panel regressions of a monetary policy indicator on an election dummy and control variables. We do not find evidence of political monetary cycles in advanced countries but find strong evidence in developing nations. Based on our results, we construct a new de facto ranking of central bank independence derived from the extent to which monetary policy varies with the election cycle. Our ranking of CBI is therefore based on the behavior of central banks during election cycles when their independence is likely to be challenged or their lack of independence is likely to be revealed. The ranking also avoids well-known problems with existing measures of central bank independence.
2007-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5898/1/MPRA_paper_5898.pdf
Alpanda, Sami and Honig, Adam (2007): Political Monetary Cycles and a New de facto Ranking of Central Bank Independence.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5927
2019-09-29T02:13:43Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4435:443533
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473138
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5927/
WHY BUBBLE-BURSTING IS UNPREDICTABLE: WELFARE EFFECTS OF ANTI-BUBBLE POLICY WHEN CENTRAL BANKS MAKE MISTAKES
Kai, Guo
Conlon, John R.
D53 - Financial Markets
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper examines the effect of bubble-bursting policy in the case where the central bank sometimes tries to deflate an asset which is not, in fact, overpriced. We consider the case of a “semi-bubble,” where some traders know that an asset is overpriced, but others do not. Unlike most previous papers on bubble policy, our framework assumes rational traders. We also assume a finite time horizon, to rule out infinite horizon type bubbles. The market’s “fulfilled expectations” equilibria are derived, and standard tools of welfare economics are applied to evaluate the effect of anti-bubble policy.
Under the assumption that the announcements of the financial authority can help less informed traders to learn more about a risky asset, market equilibria are presented and compared. We show that, if sellers care relatively more about the states where the central bank makes a negative bubble-bursting announcement, an announcement policy interferes with the asset’s ability to share risks. Conversely, if sellers care relatively less about the announcement states, an announcement policy improves risk sharing.
“Information leakage” plays an important role in our analysis. Because of this leakage, central bank announcements can initiate further information revelation between traders. That is, the leakage effect can reveal information that the central bank, itself, does not have. However, this information leakage may not be welfare improving. Also, this leakage effect makes it difficult to predict the effects of bubble-bursting policy. This may complicate both private investment strategies and public policy analysis.
2007-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5927/1/MPRA_paper_5927.pdf
Kai, Guo and Conlon, John R. (2007): WHY BUBBLE-BURSTING IS UNPREDICTABLE: WELFARE EFFECTS OF ANTI-BUBBLE POLICY WHEN CENTRAL BANKS MAKE MISTAKES.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6156
2019-10-11T16:33:21Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453433
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473234
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453437
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453431
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6156/
STRUKTURELLE VERÄNDERUNGEN IN DER WIRTSCHAFT DER REPUBLIKEN KRAOATIEN UND BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND
Novak, Branko
Matić, Branko
E62 - Fiscal Policy
E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E0 - General
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
A10 - General
G24 - Investment Banking ; Venture Capital ; Brokerage ; Ratings and Ratings Agencies
E60 - General
E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
E41 - Demand for Money
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
The paper discusses the structural changes taking place in the financial system of the Republic of Croatia after the country became independent. Particular attention is given to the banking system, bankruptcies and rehabilitation of banks. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the development of insurance companies, investment funds and pension funds as important components of the financial system. The state and development of money and capital markets is analyzed as well. The legislation covering the major financial institutions is reviewed and compared with the legislation in highly developed market economies.
2002
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6156/1/MPRA_paper_6156.pdf
Novak, Branko and Matić, Branko (2002): STRUKTURELLE VERÄNDERUNGEN IN DER WIRTSCHAFT DER REPUBLIKEN KRAOATIEN UND BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND. Published in: XXIII. Wissenschaftliches Symposium, Strukturelle Veränderungen in der Wirtschaft der Republiken Kroatien und Bundesrepublik Deutschland (10 October 2002): pp. 31-51.
de
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6173
2019-10-23T17:16:44Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6543
2019-09-30T14:34:04Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6543/
"The monetary policy of the European Central Bank is too conservative.” Discussion.
Mico, Apostolov
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
1999 - European Central Bank (ECB) started enforcing the single monetary policy for the
euro area. The Treaty of Maastricht constituted the European Union and monetary system
of the European Union - Eurosystem with:
“The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The
ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”
2005-10-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6543/1/MPRA_paper_6543.pdf
Mico, Apostolov (2005): "The monetary policy of the European Central Bank is too conservative.” Discussion. Published in:
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6579
2019-10-03T08:14:12Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6579/
Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model
Luís, Pacheco
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
The nature of the relationship between asset price movements and monetary policy is a currently hotly debated topic in macroeconomics. This paper examines empirically if monetary policy in the euro-area, since 1987, has been influenced by high valuations of the equity and housing markets. A first aim of the paper is to assess the performance of Taylor-type rules and to evaluate whether alternative specifications, including asset prices, can better track the interest rate setting in the euro area. The general finding is that a Taylor-like rule, with an interest rate smoothing term but without including asset prices, seems to be helpful in describing monetary policy in the euro-area in the last fifteen years. Next, in the context of a simple macro model, extended with asset prices, we derive the optimal reaction function for the monetary authorities. Through a simple calibration of that model, we find that asset prices inclusion in the monetary authority’s reaction function implies a larger volatility for the interest rate and destabilizes the economy. That is, apart from demand shocks, the rule incorporating asset prices implies more volatility than a simple rule. The effect of the disturbances dies out after some periods, but the observed volatility in the variables is greater in the extended model.
2004
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6579/1/MPRA_paper_6579.pdf
Luís, Pacheco (2004): Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model. Published in: Current Issues in European Integration (2004)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6759
2019-10-02T00:07:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6759/
Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał
Chmielewski, Tomasz
Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
In this paper we ask a question about the impact of monetary policy on total bank lending in the presence of a developed market for foreign currency denominated loans and potential substitutability between domestic and foreign currency loans. Our results, based on a panel of three biggest Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) confirm the existence of the substitution effect between these loans. Restrictive monetary policy leads to a decrease in domestic currency lending but simultaneously accelerates foreign currency denominated loans. This makes the central bank's job harder with respect to providing both, monetary and financial stability.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6759/1/MPRA_paper_6759.pdf
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał and Chmielewski, Tomasz and Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna (2007): Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6879
2019-09-28T04:55:14Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6879/
Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal
Chmielewski, Tomasz
Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
In this paper we ask a question about the impact of monetary policy on total bank lending in the presence of a developed market for foreign currency denominated loans and potential substitutability between domestic and foreign currency loans. Our results, based on a panel of three biggest Central European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) confirm the existence of the substitution effect between these loans. Restrictive monetary policy leads to a decrease in domestic currency lending but simultaneously accelerates foreign currency denominated loans. This makes the central bank's job harder with respect to providing both, monetary and financial stability.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6879/2/MPRA_paper_6879.pdf
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal and Chmielewski, Tomasz and Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna (2007): Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7294
2013-02-11T14:27:45Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7362
2017-12-22T04:05:15Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7369
2020-08-10T14:01:11Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7411
2019-10-25T06:11:39Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7424
2019-09-27T16:50:59Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453431
7375626A656374733D4E:4E34
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7424/
Commemorative Metal Money and Monetary Economy
Matić, Branko
E0 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E41 - Demand for Money
N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
The subject of study of monetary economy is money, its forms and functions and its
economic and reproductive role. Since modern money is a very heterogeneous category, an
adequate money issue policy makes it possible with particular forms of money to achieve some
additional effects. This primarily refers to commemorative coins, the issue of which may bring
significant economic effects based on numismatic designs. In this way, this kind of money may
get another role in monetary economy. Such approach does not lessen the basic functions of
commemorative money, such as the function of preserving value, the function of a means of
transaction, the function of a means of payment or its commercial function. Planned activities
in relation to the introduction of cash money, including commemorative coinage, iil most
European Union countries in the year 2002, among other things, will also have important
influence on Croatian money issue policy regarding commemorative coinage. The reasons for
this are the development of money issue activities in the sphere of coinage, especially in the
segment of commemorative coins in the European Union countries, and the readiness of
Croatia to participate in that association. It will therefore be necessary to harmonize Croatian
money issue policy in the sphere of commemorative coinage with the unified policy of these
countries that is now being profiled.
2001
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7424/1/MPRA_paper_7424.pdf
Matić, Branko (2001): Commemorative Metal Money and Monetary Economy. Published in: Proceedings of the 3rd International Numismatic Congress in Croatia (2002): pp. 179-187.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7439
2019-10-01T08:25:05Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7439/
Numismatic and Monetary Aspects of Introducing the Uniform European Union Currency
Matić, Branko
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E50 - General
The paper "Numismatic Aspects of Introducing the Uniform European Union Currency" deals with a subject causing a series of reactions for several years already not only in the European Union countries but also in those non-member ones. The planed intro¬duction of uniform currency, due to its complexity, reflections on everyday life of every individual, psychological barriers, habits, tradition, the features of current emission poli¬cies of the member states, technological reasons etc. results in such widespread public reac¬tions. In spite of that the reflection of these changes on the numismatic activity has been the least discussed issue. mth regard to the importance of recent numismatic activity the numis¬matic aspects of these changes were particularly emphasised in this paper. Indeed, only a very small number of numismatic elements have been worked out so far, i.e., fragmentary elaboration can be found in some Union states. On common level some currency proposals, being partly nltlllismatic, were elaborated to a smaller extent. In the event that the idea of introducting the uniform European Union monetary unit comes into existence, all the coun¬tries planning to be members of the Union will have to make, by all means, certain prepara¬tions and, along with this, undertake the necessary changes.
2000
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7439/1/MPRA_paper_7439.pdf
Matić, Branko (2000): Numismatic and Monetary Aspects of Introducing the Uniform European Union Currency. Published in: Proceedings of the 2nd International Numismatic Congress in Croatia (2000): pp. 227-233.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7463
2019-09-27T16:45:57Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443231
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443431
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443430
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433235
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443439
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7463/
Operationalizing and Measuring Competition: Determinants of Competition in Private Banking Industry in India
Kv, Bhanu Murthy
Deb, Ashis Taru
D21 - Firm Behavior: Theory
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
D41 - Perfect Competition
D40 - General
C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions ; Probabilities
D49 - Other
Using an appropriate theoretical framework and econometric methodology, the study has sought to measure and model competition in private banking industry in India in an attempt to analyse the process of market dynamics in the industry. The changing scenario of private banking consequent to deregulation provided the motivation behind the study. It used the concept of competition proposed by Stigler (1961) and measured it by Bodenhorn’s (1990) measure of mobility. The study provides a critique of the mechanism of inducing competition, which is implicit in the Narasimham Committee (1991). It then provides the theoretical background of an alternative mechanism based on Structure-Conduct-Performance paradigm, which incorporates basic conditions and strategic groups, apart from including entry, economies of scale, product differentiation and price cost margin, One basic contention of the study is that competition goes beyond “conduct” and encompasses all the four components of S-C-P paradigm: basic conditions, structure, conduct and performance.
Accordingly, a three equation simultaneous equation model is used to ultimately estimate the equation of competition through Tobit technique. The result demonstrates that variables related to basic conditions, structure, and conduct and performance influence competition. The study has found evidence against the simplistic relationship between concentration and competition, which remained implicit in the literature. The study also developed a methodology to arrive at market form from an analysis of three aspects of a market and concludes that private banking industry in India is characterized by monopolistic competition.
2008-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7463/1/MPRA_paper_7463.pdf
Kv, Bhanu Murthy and Deb, Ashis Taru (2008): Operationalizing and Measuring Competition: Determinants of Competition in Private Banking Industry in India.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7465
2019-09-27T06:56:17Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443231
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423139
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443431
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443430
7375626A656374733D42:4232:423239
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443439
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7465/
Theoretical Framework Of Competition As Applied To Banking Industry
Kv, Bhanu Murthy
Deb, Ashis Taru
D21 - Firm Behavior: Theory
B19 - Other
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
D41 - Perfect Competition
D40 - General
B29 - Other
D49 - Other
Concepts evolve through time and over time they assume different meanings. The concept of competition is no exception. This paper discusses the evolution of the concept of competition in general with a view to derive a theoretical framework for analyzing competition in banking industry. Starting from the classical notions of competition it proceeds to some of the latest approaches (Northcott (2004), Neuberger (1998), Toolsema (2003), Bolt and Tieman (2001)). The ordinary Structure-Conduct-Performance approach does not involve any analysis of market dynamics. Our approach introduces various aspects of industry dynamics and growth. It provides a methodology to arrive at the market form in banking industry through an analysis of all the aspects of basic conditions, structure, conduct and performance.
It is argued that sustained growth and dynamics of the industry is not price led. Growth arises out of changing basic conditions and dynamics arises out of sharing the new market created by basic conditions. Hence the prime mover of competition is rivalry among firms to control market share and to internalize externalities rather than adjustments brought about by the price mechanism.
2008-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7465/1/MPRA_paper_7465.pdf
Kv, Bhanu Murthy and Deb, Ashis Taru (2008): Theoretical Framework Of Competition As Applied To Banking Industry.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8183
2019-09-26T15:11:04Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4435:443533
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413132
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D42:4230:423030
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413134
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8183/
WORLD WAR III A TECHNO ECONOMIC INTROSPECTION
Lahiri, Soumitra
D53 - Financial Markets
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
B00 - General
A14 - Sociology of Economics
Starting from February 2007 world market is facing what we call enantiodromia. The indices are correcting. It is not known whether this is the final correction but there is no doubt that the bubble has burst and air out of it is gushing out slowly (fast on an extended time frame). The biggest question faced by the world now is whether the bursting of the bubble will bring in a deflationary environment as seeds of deflation are seen already germinating very much within the core of rampant inflation envisaged everywhere.
‘Ke sera sera’ whatever will be, will be, but is it not important to investigate as to how this economic menace could happen unnoticed by all? Was there any game plan conceived by a few nations to make best use of the last bit of the Grand Supercycle that began around 1789? Is it not important to rescan flaws remaining within the very system of capital flow/accumulation and control?
The science of war, too, has undergone a sea of change. It is no more a concept of battle of arms restricted to a specific war field. With the advent of globalization the boundaries between countries have diluted. The new warfare recognizes no geographical boundaries. It is clash of finance versus finance with ultimate objective remaining the same: worldwide destruction and impoverishment of the rest of the world. Terrorist activities too come within the ambit of this new framework of warfare that is nothing but deployment of combinations. This is return of World War again. Whether we accept or not, truth remains, World War III is going on, possibly since the year 1982.
Having notices the cancer growing underneath the beautiful skin of economic boom one and a half year back, we walked up to several publishers and a renowned university in India to help us send across the message to the millions across the world. Context of the book trashing the economic situation then, made all skeptical to go ahead and publish the same. This prompted me to put this book up in the air as an e-book in an effort to bring this into the eye of the millions that surf the net everyday. Which too did not fair well, and before I could do anything to bring this subject to the eyes of the common man, the debacle occurred. Had it been published at the right time, thousands, if not millions that lost heavily in the economic crash, may have had a way to save something in the landslide.
However, as the book sites, there is a lot remaining to happen. Furthermore, the same can be used to avoid similar instances in future.
2007-04-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8183/1/MPRA_paper_8183.pdf
Lahiri, Soumitra (2007): WORLD WAR III A TECHNO ECONOMIC INTROSPECTION.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8251
2019-09-27T05:52:10Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8251/
Professor Becker on Free Banking: A Comment
van den Hauwe, Ludwig
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Professor Becker´s 1956 paper about free banking was originally intended as a reaction to the 100-percent reserve proposals that were then popular at the University of Chicago. Today the original paper clearly illustrates how considerably our views and theories about free banking have evolved in the past 50 years. This development is to a considerable extent the result of the work and the writings of economists of the Austrian School. Pascal Salin is one of the most prominent members of the Austrian free banking school. In a new introduction to the 1956 paper written especially for the Festschrift in honor of Pascal Salin, Professor Gary Becker partially repudiates and mitigates some of his previous conclusions. This event offers a fitting opportunity to review some developments in the theory of free banking and related issues and to add a few clarifications concerning the present “state of the art” as regards an acceptable and adequate notion of free banking.
2007-10-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8251/1/MPRA_paper_8251.pdf
van den Hauwe, Ludwig (2007): Professor Becker on Free Banking: A Comment.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8389
2019-09-30T09:44:53Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8389/
Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices
Gaiotti, Eugenio
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
It has been recently argued that the flattening of the Phillips curve, observed in the main industrial countries over the last two decades, is due to globalisation, which exposes domestic firms to fiercer international competition and severs the link between domestic demand and pricing. A more traditional explanation, with very different policy implications, centres on an increase in the credibility of the monetary regime. Substantial identification problems plague the empirical literature on this issue. We take advantage of a unique dataset including firm-level information on the pricing, capacity utilisation, export orientation, foreign competition, import penetration and delocalisation activity of about 2,000 Italian firms in the period 1988-2005; we test whether the finding of a weaker link between capacity utilisation and prices is confirmed at company level, whether it is robust to controlling for inflation expectations and whether it is concentrated among those firms that are more exposed to globalisation. According to the evidence presented, this is not the case. The conclusion is that the observed flattening of the Phillips curve is not due to globalisation.
2008-04-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8389/1/MPRA_paper_8389.pdf
Gaiotti, Eugenio (2008): Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8539
2019-10-26T17:20:27Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8628
2019-10-03T12:12:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453636
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473138
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443031
7375626A656374733D4B:4B33:4B3339
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8628/
Credit Expansion, the Prisoner´s Dilemma, and Free Banking as Mechanism Design
van den Hauwe, Ludwig
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
E52 - Monetary Policy
D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
K39 - Other
Despite the distinctive character of the Austrian approach to “microfoundations for macroeconomics”, the literature on free banking contains a number of arguments which make use of game-theoretic concepts and models such as the well-known Prisoner´s Dilemma model. While there can be no general a priori presumption against the possible usefulness of game-theoretic concepts for Austrian theorizing, in the context of the debate on free banking such concepts and models have been used with varying degrees of perspicacity. One example which is elaborated in the paper is concerned with the interaction configuration between independent banks in a fractional-reserve free banking system, which has sometimes been modeled as a One-Shot Prisoner´s Dilemma. This conceptualization does not provide a sufficient argument for the in-concert overexpansion thesis, nor for the thesis that fractional-reserve free banking will tend to lead to the establishment of a central bank. The author drops the implicit assumption that there exists a one-to-one correspondence between the outcome matrix and the utility matrix. When it is acknowledged that banks in a fractional-reserve free banking system need not necessarily adopt a “myopic”, self-regarding perspective but may recognize the long-run harmony of interests between the banking sector and society at large, a different conceptualization and a different matrix representation emerge.
2008-02-21
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8628/1/MPRA_paper_8628.pdf
van den Hauwe, Ludwig (2008): Credit Expansion, the Prisoner´s Dilemma, and Free Banking as Mechanism Design.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8694
2019-09-26T20:29:48Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8694/
Political constraints on monetary policy during the Great Inflation
Weise, Charles L
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E50 - General
The U.S. Great Inflation of the 1970s was characterized by repeated, failed attempts at disinflation by the Federal Reserve as well as periods of inaction despite rising inflation. Previous research has attributed these failures to policymakers’ “misperceptions” about monetary policy and the macroeconomy. This paper argues instead that the Fed’s behavior during this period can be explained as a response to political constraints. Members of the Fed understood that a serious attempt to tackle inflation would be unpopular with the public and would generate opposition from Congress and the Executive branch. The result was a commitment to the policy of gradualism, under which the Fed would attempt to reduce inflation with mild policies that would not trigger an outright recession, and premature abandonment of anti-inflation policies at the first sign of recession. The Fed managed to disinflate successfully under Chairman Volcker only when the political constraints on Fed policy were lifted after 1979, allowing the Fed to abandon the policy of gradualism and knowingly take actions that risked recession. Evidence for this explanation of Fed behavior is found in Minutes and Transcripts of FOMC meetings and speeches of Fed chairmen.
2008-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8694/1/MPRA_paper_8694.pdf
Weise, Charles L (2008): Political constraints on monetary policy during the Great Inflation.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8734
2019-10-28T19:11:11Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8766
2019-10-03T08:08:53Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453636
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473138
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443031
7375626A656374733D4B:4B33:4B3339
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8766/
Credit Expansion, the Prisoner´s Dilemma, and Free Banking as Mechanism Design
van den Hauwe, Ludwig
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
E52 - Monetary Policy
D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
K39 - Other
Despite the distinctive character of the Austrian approach to “microfoundations for macroeconomics”, the literature on free banking contains a number of arguments which make use of game-theoretic concepts and models such as the well-known Prisoner´s Dilemma model. While there can be no general a priori presumption against the possible usefulness of game-theoretic concepts for Austrian theorizing, in the context of the debate on free banking such concepts and models have been used with varying degrees of perspicacity. One example which is elaborated in the paper is concerned with the interaction configuration between independent banks in a fractional-reserve free banking system, which has sometimes been modeled as a One-Shot Prisoner´s Dilemma. This conceptualization does not provide a sufficient argument for the in-concert overexpansion thesis, nor for the thesis that fractional-reserve free banking will tend to lead to the establishment of a central bank. The author drops the implicit assumption that there exists a one-to-one correspondence between the outcome matrix and the utility matrix. When it is acknowledged that banks in a fractional-reserve free banking system need not necessarily adopt a “myopic”, self-regarding perspective but may recognize the long-run harmony of interests between the banking sector and society at large, a different conceptualization and a different matrix representation emerge.
2008-02-21
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8766/1/MPRA_paper_8766.pdf
van den Hauwe, Ludwig (2008): Credit Expansion, the Prisoner´s Dilemma, and Free Banking as Mechanism Design.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8789
2019-09-27T09:05:02Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8789/
Central bank reaction to public deficit and sound public finance: the case of the European Monetary Union
Canale, Rosaria Rita
E62 - Fiscal Policy
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
The paper aims to shed light on the relation between monetary and fiscal policy in EMU, focusing on the interest rates and deficit dynamics. We present a theoretical model in which monetary and fiscal policy independently interact in a closed economic system through their own instrument, namely, the rate of interest for the central bank and deficit spending for governments. We demonstrate that the possibility of the two policy authorities producing not conflicting results depends on the idea each has of the workings of the economic system and on the influence each variable has on inflation and equilibrium income. Furthermore the inflationary opinion of the ECB about deficit spending leads to the result that public finance becomes surely unsound, unless governments stop using expansionary instruments. We provocatively conclude that the limits set by the Maastricht Treaty are a necessary solution to avoid unsound public finance.
2008-05-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8789/2/MPRA_paper_8789.pdf
Canale, Rosaria Rita (2008): Central bank reaction to public deficit and sound public finance: the case of the European Monetary Union.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8832
2019-09-28T08:07:00Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453636
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473138
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443031
7375626A656374733D4B:4B33:4B3339
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8832/
Credit Expansion, the Prisoner´s Dilemma, and Free Banking as Mechanism Design
van den Hauwe, Ludwig
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
E52 - Monetary Policy
D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
K39 - Other
Despite the distinctive character of the Austrian approach to “microfoundations for macroeconomics”, the literature on free banking contains a number of arguments which make use of game-theoretic concepts and models such as the well-known Prisoner´s Dilemma model. While there can be no general a priori presumption against the possible usefulness of game-theoretic concepts for Austrian theorizing, in the context of the debate on free banking such concepts and models have been used with varying degrees of perspicacity. One example which is elaborated in the paper is concerned with the interaction configuration between independent banks in a fractional-reserve free banking system, which has sometimes been modeled as a One-Shot Prisoner´s Dilemma. This conceptualization does not provide a sufficient argument for the in-concert overexpansion thesis, nor for the thesis that fractional-reserve free banking will tend to lead to the establishment of a central bank. The author drops the implicit assumption that there exists a one-to-one correspondence between the outcome matrix and the utility matrix. When it is acknowledged that banks in a fractional-reserve free banking system need not necessarily adopt a “myopic”, self-regarding perspective but may recognize the long-run harmony of interests between the banking sector and society at large, a different conceptualization and a different matrix representation emerge.
2008-02-21
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8832/1/MPRA_paper_8832.pdf
van den Hauwe, Ludwig (2008): Credit Expansion, the Prisoner´s Dilemma, and Free Banking as Mechanism Design.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9227
2018-01-06T04:52:35Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9242
2019-09-27T10:31:02Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473135
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9242/
Efectos de la Globalizacion sobre la Inflacion y la politica Monetaria Domestica
Adamcik, Santiago
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
G15 - International Financial Markets
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper discusses that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important element in the reduction of the inflation in the recent years do not come true.
The globalization has, however, the potential to contribute to the stabilization of economies and this has been crucial element in promoting the growth of economies.
The paper, therefore, analyzes four issues on the impact of the globalization upon the mechanisms of monetary transmission and arrives at the following findings. ( 1 ) Globalization did not reduce the sensibility of inflation to the domestic production gaps and in consequence to the effectiveness of the monetary policy,. ( 2 ) Gaps in the product of external economies do not play a more important role than in other times,.( 3 ) Domestic monetary policy maintains still the control on the domestic interest rates and that way pursuing the stabilization of inflation and the product,.( 4 ) Globalization affects, by means of different forms, the mechanisms of monetary transmission
2008-02-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9242/1/MPRA_paper_9242.pdf
Adamcik, Santiago (2008): Efectos de la Globalizacion sobre la Inflacion y la politica Monetaria Domestica.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9440
2019-09-27T18:29:46Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9440/
RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR LINKED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM
Genberg, Hans
He, Dong
Leung, Frank
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper reviews the performance of the Hong Kong dollar Linked Exchange Rate system since the introduction of the three refinements to it in May 2005. It presents an analytical framework which argues that, in a fully credible exchange rate target zone regime, the spot exchange rate normally stays inside the band but does not have a natural tendency to converge towards the centre of the zone. While a certain level of interest rate differential between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar may persist, it should not grow significantly larger than what is implied by the width of the Convertibility Zone. Judged against this framework, the developments since May 2005 point to increased
credibility of the refined Linked Exchange Rate system.
2007-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9440/1/MPRA_paper_9440.pdf
Genberg, Hans and He, Dong and Leung, Frank (2007): RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR LINKED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9599
2019-09-26T17:18:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9599/
Excès de liquidité systémique et effectivité de la politique monétaire : cas des pays de la CEMAC
KAMGNA, Severin Yves
Ndambendia, Houdou
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E50 - General
The excess of banks liquidity in the CEMAC zone, following the banking restructuring, brought the monetary authorities to undertake a certain number of reforms. The object of this article is, besides the determination of the explanatory factors of the excess of banks liquidity, to appreciate the efficiency of the transmission mechanisms of the monetary policy. It is evident from results of the evaluation that this phenomenon depends strongly on the economic and financial structures of every CEMAC’s country. To the level of the zone, only the credit to the private sector could reduce the liquidity in excess. In the same way, this situation reduces the efficiency of the monetary channel. This inefficiency of the monetary channel explains itself by the weak adjustment of the rate of the inter-bank market following an expansive monetary policy. These results confirms the necessity for the monetary authorities to implement actions aiming to increase the offer of credit to the private sector.
2008-06-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9599/1/MPRA_paper_9599.pdf
KAMGNA, Severin Yves and Ndambendia, Houdou (2008): Excès de liquidité systémique et effectivité de la politique monétaire : cas des pays de la CEMAC.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9786
2019-09-26T12:49:53Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9786/
Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives
Melecky, Martin
Najdov, Evgenij
E30 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper re-emphasizes the link from structural policies to enhanced macroeconomic stabilization using a small structural model estimated on quarterly data for Macedonia and Slovakia over 1995-2007. The success of macroeconomic stabilization, typically in hands of monetary policy, is not only determined by a suitable choice of the nominal anchor, which shapes the reaction function of monetary policy, but also the constraints within which the monetary policy strives to achieve its objectives. The key attributes of the constraints to macroeconomic stabilization are economic rigidities and structural shocks. By benchmarking the estimated economic rigidities and structural shocks faced by Macedonia to those faced by Slovakia, we find that Macedonia has relatively weaker transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, higher output rigidity, a lower exchange rate pass-through, and faces larger external shocks. For Macedonia, these relatively higher constraints on monetary policy together with the chosen exchange rate anchor result in higher output and inflation volatility relative to Slovakia. Hence, it appears that small open economies with stronger economic rigidities should apply monetary policy regimes that allow for more flexible adjustments in external relative prices to enhance their macroeconomic stability.
2008-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9786/1/MPRA_paper_9786.pdf
Melecky, Martin and Najdov, Evgenij (2008): Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9953
2019-10-01T19:27:29Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9953/
The Future of the Renminbi and Its Impact on the Hong Kong Dollar
Yue, Eddie
He, Dong
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This article outlines our thoughts on the following three issues. First, will the renminbi become an international currency in the foreseeable future? Second, what does the international use of the renminbi mean for Hong Kong? Third, should the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate be repegged to the renminbi? We argue that the renminbi is likely to become a major international currency in the future, but the process will most likely be a gradual one, reflecting the particular approach that the authorities in the Mainland have taken to capital account liberalization. We also argue that Hong Kong is well positioned
to benefit from the process of the renminbi becoming an international currency. At the same time, we continue to believe in the appropriateness of the link of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to the U.S. dollar.
2008-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9953/1/MPRA_paper_9953.pdf
Yue, Eddie and He, Dong (2008): The Future of the Renminbi and Its Impact on the Hong Kong Dollar. Published in: Cato Journal , Vol. 28, No. 2 (Spring/Summer 2008) (August 2008): pp. 197-203.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10150
2019-09-27T16:41:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10150/
Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach
Barnett, William A.
Chauvet, Marcelle
Tierney, Heather L. R.
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E40 - General
This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain periods, such as around turning points. These differences cannot be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each individual series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors reveal where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginnings and ends of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases. We note the policy relevance of the inferences. Indeed, as Belongia (1996) has observed in this regard, "measurement matters."
2007-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10150/1/MPRA_paper_10150.pdf
Barnett, William A. and Chauvet, Marcelle and Tierney, Heather L. R. (2007): Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10197
2019-09-27T02:47:52Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3136
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10197/
Restructuring of Financial Sector in Pakistan
Hanif, Muhammad N.
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
The process of financial sector restructuring started in Pakistan during early 1990s. For this purpose, international financial institutions, like World Bank and ADB, provided technical and financial resources. The objective of this exercise was to let financial system play its role in economic growth and development of the country in an efficient and competitive way. A lot of policy decisions have been made and implemented during the last decade to reduce distortions and to develop competitive price mechanism in the financial markets.
The process of restructuring is still going on and it is a bit earlier to say some final words about its success, however, we are able to say, on the basis of the trend the financial and other indicators are following, that we have been partially successful in achieving the set objectives. The competition among financial institutions has been intensified during the restructuring period. Some positive developments have also been witnessed on the front of money and foreign exchange markets. Though there are some improvements, yet there is a lot to do for strengthening of insurance sector, capital market and bond market. The whole exercise remained less effective in increasing financial deepening, and in reducing intermediation cost (i.e., interest rate spread). Until end of 1990s, policy of privatization of NCBs and drive for recovery of NPLs could not be pursued vigorously and NPLs continued to grow. During the last three years some considerable efforts have been made for privatization of NCBs. Only recently, the size of the NPLs has started to stabilize due to some intensified recovery efforts and better quality of new loans. The size of the NPLs is primarily responsible for the deteriorated health of financial institutions. The overall macroeconomic outcome is also against the expectations.
Macroeconomic stability as well as proper sequencing of restructuring measures are necessary preconditions to the success of the whole exercise. In Pakistan, the financial restructuring process was introduced in an environment of large budget deficit and high and variable inflation i.e., in an atmosphere of macro-economic instability. Frequent changes in political set up of the country during 1990s also adversely affected this process. However, in the present milieu of political and economic management, it is expected that financial sector will be able to play its due role in economic growth and efficiency as the governance structure is improving, consistency in economic policies is being ensured, and political stability is envisaged.
2002-05-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10197/1/MPRA_paper_10197.pdf
Hanif, Muhammad N. (2002): Restructuring of Financial Sector in Pakistan. Published in: The Journal of the Institute of Bankers in Pakistan (January 2003): pp. 43-74.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10206
2018-01-06T08:53:35Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10242
2019-09-27T20:15:42Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433433
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10242/
International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview
Barnett, William A.
Chauvet, Marcelle
C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E40 - General
E41 - Demand for Money
This paper comprises a survey of a half century of research on international monetary aggregate data. We argue that since monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and have sequentially produced one source of misunderstanding after another. The bad data produced by simple sum aggregation have contaminated research in monetary economics, have resulted in needless “paradoxes,” and have produced decades of misunderstandings in international monetary economics research and policy. While better data, based correctly on index number theory and aggregation theory, now exist, the official central bank data most commonly used have not improved in most parts of the world. While aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates exist for internal use at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and many other central banks throughout the world, the only central banks that currently make aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates available to the public are the Bank of England and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. No other area of economics has been so seriously damaged by data unrelated to valid index number and aggregation theory. In this paper we chronologically review the past research in this area and connect the data errors with the resulting policy and inference errors. Future research on monetary aggregation and policy can most advantageously focus on extensions to exchange rate risk and its implications for multilateral aggregation over monetary asset portfolios containing assets denominated in more than one currency. The relevant theory for multilateral aggregation with exchange rate risk has been derived by Barnett (2007) and Barnett and Wu (2005).
2008-08-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10242/1/MPRA_paper_10242.pdf
Barnett, William A. and Chauvet, Marcelle (2008): International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10278
2019-09-27T08:58:09Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10278/
Optimality criteria of hybrid inflation-price level targeting
Bokor, László
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E50 - General
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the relative performance of inflation targeting, price level targeting, and hybrid targeting of them in a simple three-period steady state to steady state economy facing transmission lag, and derives optimal policies implementing commitment solution under all set of hybrid expectations, social preference, and cost-push shock persistence. The main intention of the examination is to reveal the nature of the interrelations between economic and policy parameters.
2007-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10278/1/MPRA_paper_10278.pdf
Bokor, László (2007): Optimality criteria of hybrid inflation-price level targeting.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10289
2019-09-27T05:24:07Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433433
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10289/
International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview
Barnett, William A.
Chauvet, Marcelle
C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E40 - General
E41 - Demand for Money
This paper comprises a survey of a half century of research on international monetary aggregate data. We argue that since monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and have sequentially produced one source of misunderstanding after another. The bad data produced by simple sum aggregation have contaminated research in monetary economics, have resulted in needless “paradoxes,” and have produced decades of misunderstandings in international monetary economics research and policy. While better data, based correctly on index number theory and aggregation theory, now exist, the official central bank data most commonly used have not improved in most parts of the world. While aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates exist for internal use at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and many other central banks throughout the world, the only central banks that currently make aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates available to the public are the Bank of England and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. No other area of economics has been so seriously damaged by data unrelated to valid index number and aggregation theory. In this paper we chronologically review the past research in this area and connect the data errors with the resulting policy and inference errors. Future research on monetary aggregation and policy can most advantageously focus on extensions to exchange rate risk and its implications for multilateral aggregation over monetary asset portfolios containing assets denominated in more than one currency. The relevant theory for multilateral aggregation with exchange rate risk has been derived by Barnett (2007) and Barnett and Wu (2005).
2008-08-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10289/2/MPRA_paper_10289.pdf
Barnett, William A. and Chauvet, Marcelle (2008): International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10296
2019-09-29T05:21:24Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453433
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10296/
The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal
Kot, Adam
E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
In a New Keynesian model with asymmetric information we show that publication of macroeconomic projections and of the future interest rate path by the central bank can improve macroeconomic outcomes. However, the gains from publishing interest rate paths are small relative to those from publishing macroeconomic projections. Given that most inflation targeting central banks are already publishing macroeconomic projections this means that most gains
from increasing transparency in this area may already have been reaped. This, together with the potential costs, may explain the relative reluctance of central banks to publish interest rate paths.
2008-07-20
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10296/1/MPRA_paper_10296.pdf
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal and Kot, Adam (2008): The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10545
2019-09-27T16:50:42Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10545/
Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy
Melecky, Martin
Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego
Soderstrom, Ulf
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
We quantify the effects of monetary policy transparency and credibility on macroeconomic volatility in an estimated model of the euro area economy. In our model, private agents are unable to distinguish between temporary shocks to the central bank’s monetary policy rule and persistent shifts in the inflation target, and therefore use optimal filtering techniques to construct estimates of the future monetary policy stance. We find that the macroeconomic benefits of credibly announcing the current level of the time-varying inflation target are reasonably small as long as private agents correctly understand the stochastic processes governing the inflation target and the temporary policy shock. If, on the other hand, private agents overestimate the volatility of the inflation target, the overall gains of announcing the target can be substantial. We also show that the central bank to some extent can help private agents in their learning process by responding more aggressively to deviations of inflation from the target.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10545/1/MPRA_paper_10545.pdf
Melecky, Martin and Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego and Soderstrom, Ulf (2008): Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10668
2019-10-01T23:12:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10668/
A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence
Harashima, Taiji
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
Recently, it has been argued that trend inflation may be the solution to the puzzle of inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). However, incorporating trend inflation into the NKPC raises another serious problem—it lacks a microfoundation. The paper presents a microfoundation for trend inflation, which indicates that trend inflation is a natural consequence of simultaneous optimization by the government and households. A purely forward-looking model is constructed based on the microfoundation presented. The model enables a unified explanation for various types of inflation. It also indicates that, if inflation is assumed to follow an autoregressive process without considering trend inflation, many measures of inflation persistence will spuriously indicate that inflation is intrinsically substantially persistent and has a backward-looking property.
2008-09-21
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10668/1/MPRA_paper_10668.pdf
Harashima, Taiji (2008): A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10759
2019-09-26T17:06:46Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10759/
European Central Bank and Federal Reserve USA: monetary policy effects on the returns volatility of the Italian Stock Market Index Mibtel
Francesco, Guidi
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
G10 - General
What is the effect of either European Central Bank and Federal Reserve monetary policies on the Italian Index Mibtel? This paper aims to evaluate the impact of monetary policy announcements of the most important Central Banks on the volatility of returns which have been considered at both sectorial and sub-sectorial levels during the period 1999-2008. Using EGARCH models, this work shows that expansive monetary policies may influence stock market indexes much more than restrictive monetary policies. The difference among the two central bank monetary policies is that the ECB influences indexes much more than Fed monetary policy.
2008-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10759/1/MPRA_paper_10759.pdf
Francesco, Guidi (2008): European Central Bank and Federal Reserve USA: monetary policy effects on the returns volatility of the Italian Stock Market Index Mibtel.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10844
2019-10-18T04:43:13Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10844/
From Inflation to Exchange Rate Targeting: Estimating the Stabilization Effects
Melecky, Ales
Melecky, Martin
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
This paper attempts to estimate possible losses in macroeconomic stabilization due to a move from
inflation to exchange rate targeting on an example of the Czech Republic. The authors use an
estimated New Keynesian policy model, general inflation and exchange rate targeting rules, and
representative central bank loss functions to carry out such estimations. The authors find that for
the Czech Republic moving from the historically applied inflation targeting to optimized exchange
rate targeting should not involve any significant losses in macroeconomic stabilization. However, the
Czech National Bank could improve its stabilization outcomes while remaining an inflation targeter.
This requires the Czech National Bank to respond stronger to increasing expected future inflation
and be less concerned about an opening output gap when adjusting its policy rate. Moving then
from such optimized inflation targeting to optimized exchange rate targeting can result in significant
losses in economic stabilization in the magnitude of 0.4 to 2 percentage points of GDP growth.
2008-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10844/1/MPRA_paper_10844.pdf
Melecky, Ales and Melecky, Martin (2008): From Inflation to Exchange Rate Targeting: Estimating the Stabilization Effects.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11101
2019-10-30T05:56:21Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11348
2019-09-27T11:56:11Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463337
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11348/
Taylor Rules and the Euro.
Tanya, Molodtsova
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex
Papell, David
F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper uses real-time data to analyze whether the variables that normally enter central banks’ interest-rate-setting rules, which we call Taylor rule fundamentals, can provide evidence of out-of-sample predictability for the United States Dollar/Euro exchange rate from the inception of the Euro in 1999 to the end of 2007. The major result of the paper is that the null hypothesis of no predictability can be rejected against an alternative hypothesis of predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals for a wide variety of specifications that include inflation and a measure of real economic activity in the forecasting regression. We also present less formal evidence that, with real-time data, the Taylor rule provides a better description of ECB than of Fed policy during this period. While the evidence of predictability is only found for specifications that do not include the real exchange rate in the forecasting regression, the results are robust to whether or not the coefficients on inflation and the real economic activity measure are constrained to be the same for the U.S. and the Euro Area and to whether or not there is interest rate smoothing. The evidence of predictability is stronger for real-time than for revised data, about the same with inflation forecasts as with inflation rates, and weakens if output gap growth is included in the forecasting regression. Bad news about inflation and good news about real economic activity both lead to out-of-sample predictability through forecasted exchange rate appreciation.
2008-09-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11348/1/MPRA_paper_11348.pdf
Tanya, Molodtsova and Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex and Papell, David (2008): Taylor Rules and the Euro.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11352
2019-10-09T16:47:02Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11352/
Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
There is widespread agreement that monetary policy should be evaluated by using forward-looking Taylor rules estimated with real-time data. For the case of the U.S., this analysis can be performed using Greenbook data, but only through 2002. In countries outside the U.S., central banks do not regularly release their forecasts to the public. I propose a methodology for conducting monetary policy evaluation in real-time when forward-looking real-time data is unavailable. I then implement this methodology and estimate the resultant Taylor rules for the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and Germany. The methodology consists of calibrating models to closely replicate Greenbook forecasts, and then applying them to international real-time datasets. The results show that the U.S. output gap series is well described by quadratic detrending, while Greenbook inflation forecasts can be closely replicated using Bayesian model averaging over Autoregressive Distributed Lag models in inflation and the GDP growth rate. German and U.S. Taylor rules are characterized by inflation coefficients increasing with the forecast horizon and a positive output gap response. The U.K. and Canada interest rate reaction functions achieve maximum inflation response at middle-term horizons of about 1/2 year and the output gap coefficient enters the reaction functions insignificantly. Estimating the U.K. and Canadian Taylor rules as forward-looking is crucial, as backward-looking specifications produce nonsensical estimates. This is not the case for the U.S. and Germany.
2008-10-19
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11352/1/MPRA_paper_11352.pdf
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex (2008): Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11353
2019-09-26T08:09:02Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11353/
Inflation Persistence and the Taylor Principle
Murray, Christian
Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex
Papell, David
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Although the persistence of inflation is a central concern of macroeconomics, there is no consensus regarding whether or not inflation is stationary or has a unit root. We show that, in the context of a “textbook” macroeconomic model, inflation is stationary if and only if the Taylor rule obeys the Taylor principle, so that the real interest rate is increased when inflation rises above the target inflation rate. We estimate Markov switching models for both inflation and real-time forward looking Taylor rules. Inflation appears to have a unit root for most of the 1967 – 1981 period, and is stationary before 1967 and after 1981. We find that the Fed’s response to inflation is also regime dependent, with both the pre and post-Volcker samples containing monetary regimes where the Fed both did and did not follow the Taylor principle. This contrasts to recent research that suggests the Fed’s response to inflation has been time invariant, and that changes in monetary policy only occurred with respect to the output gap.
2008-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11353/1/MPRA_paper_11353.pdf
Murray, Christian and Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex and Papell, David (2008): Inflation Persistence and the Taylor Principle.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11555
2019-09-29T06:13:47Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11555/
Delegation and Loose Commitment
Nunes, Ricardo
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
This paper analyzes and compares the performance of different delegation schemes when the central bank has imperfect commitment. A continuum of loose commitment possibilities is considered ranging from full commitment to full discretion. The results show that the performance of inflation targeting improves substantially with higher commitment levels. On the other hand, the performance of
other targeting regimes does not necessarily improve with the commitment level of the central bank. While it was previously thought that inflation targeting is inferior to other targeting regimes, the results show that it can be the best performing regime as long as the commitment level is not too low. These results may provide a theoretical explanation for the high popularity of inflation targeting among central banks.
2008-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11555/1/MPRA_paper_11555.pdf
Nunes, Ricardo (2008): Delegation and Loose Commitment.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11642
2019-09-27T21:31:31Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433433
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11642/
The End of the Great Moderation: “We told you so.”
Barnett, William A.
Chauvet, Marcelle
C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E40 - General
The current financial crisis followed the “great moderation,” according to which the world’s central banks had gotten so good at countercyclical policy that the business cycle no longer existed. As more and more economists and media people
became convinced that the risk of recessions had moderated or ended, lenders and investors became willing to increase their leverage and risk-taking activities. Mortgage lenders, insurance companies, investment banking firms, and home buyers increasingly engaged in activities that would have been considered unreasonably risky, prior to the great moderation that was viewed as having lowered systemic risk. It is the position of this paper that the great moderation did not reflect improved monetary policy, and the perceptions that systemic risk had decreased and that the business cycle had ended were false. Contributing to those misperception was low quality data provided by central banks.
Since monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and have sequentially produced one source of misunderstanding after another. The bad data produced by simple sum aggregation have contaminated research in monetary economics, have resulted in needless “paradoxes,” have produced decades of misunderstandings in economic research and policy, and contributed to the widely held views about decreased systemic risk. While better data, based correctly on index number theory and aggregation theory, now exist, the usual official central bank data are not based on that better approach. While aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregates exist for internal use at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and many other central banks throughout the world, the only central banks that currently make aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregates available to the public are the Bank of England and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Dual to the aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregates are the aggregation-theoretic user cost and interest rate aggregates, which similarly are not in official use by central banks. No other area of economics has been so seriously damaged by data unrelated to valid index-number and aggregation theory.
Many commentators have been quick to blame insolvent financial firms for their “greed” and their presumed self-destructive, reckless risk taking. Perhaps some of those commentators should look more carefully at their own role in propagating the misperceptions of the great moderation that induced those firms to be willing to take such risks.
2008-11-14
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11642/1/MPRA_paper_11642.pdf
Barnett, William A. and Chauvet, Marcelle (2008): The End of the Great Moderation: “We told you so.”.
en
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