2024-03-29T01:58:27Z
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/cgi/oai2
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:756
2019-09-28T17:41:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D43:4331
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/756/
Existence of bifurcation in macroeconomic dynamics: Grandmont was right
He, Yijun
Barnett, William A.
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
E10 - General
E60 - General
Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic general-equilibrium macroeconomic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with all forms of multiperiodic dynamics between.
But Grandmont provided his result with a model in which all policies are Ricardian equivalent, no frictions exist, employment is always full, competition is perfect, and all solutions are Pareto optimal. Hence he was not able to reach conclusions about the policy relevance of his dramatic discovery. As a result, Barnett and He (1999, 2001, 2002) investigated a Keynesian structural model, and found results supporting Grandmont’s conclusions within the parameter space of the Bergstrom-Wymer continuous-time dynamic macroeconometric model of the UK economy. That prototypical Keynesian model was produced from a system of second order differential equations. The model contains frictions through adjustment lags, displays reasonable dynamics fitting the UK economy’s data, and is clearly policy relevant. In addition, initial results by Barnett and Duzhak (2006) indicate the possible existence of Hopf bifurcation within the parameter space of recent New Keynesian models.
Lucas-critique criticism of Keynesian structural models has motivated development of Euler equations models having policy-invariant deep parameters, which are invariant to policy rule changes. Hence, we continue the investigation of policy-relevant bifurcation by searching the parameter space of the best known of the Euler equations general-equilibrium macroeconometric models: the Leeper and Sims (1994) model. We find the existence of singularity bifurcation boundaries within the parameter space. Although never before found in an economic model, our explanation of the relevant theory reveals that singularity bifurcation may be a common property of Euler equations models. These results further confirm Grandmont’s views.
Beginning with Grandmont’s findings with a classical model, we continue to follow the path from the Bergstrom-Wymer policy-relevant Keynesian model, to New Keynesian models, and now to Euler equations macroeconomic models having deep parameters.
Grandmont was right.
2006-11-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/756/1/MPRA_paper_756.pdf
He, Yijun and Barnett, William A. (2006): Existence of bifurcation in macroeconomic dynamics: Grandmont was right.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1334
2019-09-26T19:21:10Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D48:4831:483131
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1334/
To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003
Jonung, Lars
H11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
F15 - Economic Integration
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
E60 - General
The Swedish referendum in September 2003 on adopting the euro or keeping the domestic currency, the krona, represents a unique event to examine the public’s perceptions of the benefits and costs of monetary unification. The voters chose between the two polar cases of exchange rate regimes: either a freely floating exchange rate or membership in a monetary union. Three major conclusions emerge from the analysis of the exit poll surveys gathered on the day of the referendum. First, the optimum currency area theory proves to be a constructive framework to predict voting behaviour across socio-economic groups and regions in Sweden, assuming voters behave in their self-interest. Second, the distribution of the expected benefits and costs across groups was a major determinant of their voting behavior. As predicted by theory, the Yes-vote was strongest among voters employed in the tradable sector, in high growth regions as well as among high-income earners and well educated. The No-vote was strongest among voters employed in the non-tradable sector, in particular in the public sector, and among low-income earners, the unemployed and the less educated – in short, among groups dependent on public-sector transfers to maintain their living standards in the event of adverse economic shocks. Third, political attitudes towards the European integration process heavily influenced the views of the voters towards the euro.
2004-06-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1334/1/MPRA_paper_1334.pdf
Jonung, Lars (2004): To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003. Published in: The Cato Journal , Vol. 24, No. numbers 1-2 (2004): pp. 123-149.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2082
2019-09-29T12:10:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D48:4834:483430
7375626A656374733D44:4439:443932
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3137
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2082/
Corrupt Bureaucracy and Growth
Djumashev, Ratbek
H40 - General
D92 - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors ; Shadow Economy ; Institutional Arrangements
E60 - General
In this paper, we analyze implications of corruption on growth. We extend existing growth models by incorporating ubiquitous corruption as a by-product of the public sector. Corruption affects both taxation and public good provision, and therefore causes income redistribution and inefficiencies in the public sector. These effects of corruption lead to lower growth through distortions of investment incentives and resources allocation.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2082/1/MPRA_paper_2082.pdf
Djumashev, Ratbek (2006): Corrupt Bureaucracy and Growth.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2280
2019-10-01T18:18:34Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473030
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2280/
Stabilność gospodarcza Rosji w najbliższej przyszłości
Augustynowicz, Paweł
E60 - General
G00 - General
Russian economy was often under the influence of crises. The last one in 1998 has not been time-consuming, and after the phase of stagnation Russia is taking benefits of stabile growth till now. However, the sources of this growth are off the country and the prices of Russian export goods could change at any moment. Russia is not prepared for this changes. Moreover, the most fragile part of Russian economy – the banking system – has some problems with stability. If Russian officials do not change their policy, it is possible that in 2006-2008 this country will face another systemic crisis.
2005
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2280/1/MPRA_paper_2280.pdf
Augustynowicz, Paweł (2005): Stabilność gospodarcza Rosji w najbliższej przyszłości. Published in: Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Sklodowska , Vol. XL, No. Sectio H Oeconomia (2006): pp. 219-232.
pl
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3716
2019-09-28T10:26:18Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3136
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3431
7375626A656374733D44:4439:443932
7375626A656374733D44:4437:443732
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D48:4832:483236
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473131
7375626A656374733D48:4834:483431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3716/
Corruption, uncertainty and growth
Djumashev, R
E20 - General
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
D92 - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E60 - General
H26 - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions
H41 - Public Goods
Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effects of this uncertainty, a stochastic dynamic growth model with the public sector is examined. It is shown that deterministic excessive red tape and corruption deteriorate the growth potential through income redistribution and public sector inefficiencies. Most importantly, it is demonstrated that the increase in corruption via higher uncertainty exerts adverse effects on capital accumulation, thus leading to lower growth rates.
2007-06-26
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3716/1/MPRA_paper_3716.pdf
Djumashev, R (2007): Corruption, uncertainty and growth.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3736
2019-10-02T16:43:49Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3736/
Compiling the national accounts demystified
Bos, Frits
E60 - General
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
This paper unveils the mystery of national accounts statistics. National accounts statistics are not facts. They are estimates of a universal accounting model (SNA93) for describing, analyzing and managing national economies. The operational versions of the universal model decide what is actually estimated. They are estimated by expanding and transforming the available data with accounting identities, tested and untested assumptions and previous estimates. The estimates reflect skills, resources and compilation policy. The resulting differences in the reliability of the national accounts statistics are to a great extent the price to be paid for a miracle come true: all over the world, very incomplete, imperfect, heterogeneous and partly outdated data are to be transformed into complete, consistent, internationally standardized and up-to-date overviews of the national economies and their major components. Nevertheless, compiling the national accounts can be improved in various ways, but this requires an international long-term strategy.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3736/1/MPRA_paper_3736.pdf
Bos, Frits (2007): Compiling the national accounts demystified. Published in: Statistics Netherlands, National accounts occasional paper nr. NA-095 (2007)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4164
2019-09-26T13:27:19Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D42:4234
7375626A656374733D41:4132:413230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4164/
Abrégé de comptabilité nationale
Buda, Rodolphe
E60 - General
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
B4 - Economic Methodology
A20 - General
This "summary" of national accounting is intended to be used as support to complete the course of national accounting during exercises (*). This "summary" does't replace the main course of national accounting, but we hope the students will find a quick presentation of macroeconomic tools, their uses, their stakes, and their links with the other fields of economics. We tried to help the readers understanding the link between national and private accounting too. This "summary" is dedicated to the students at university, but to the student at high schools, which study Economics, Management and Law. Finally, we tried to link the techniques to the main theories of the Macroeconomics.
(*) This paper completed during exercices the main course of national accounting of Mr S. Zeghni (University of Marne-la-Vallée) during the period 1995-1996.
1995
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4164/1/MPRA_paper_4164.pdf
Buda, Rodolphe (1995): Abrégé de comptabilité nationale.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5482
2019-09-26T23:27:35Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5482/
Uncertainty, Economic Reforms and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa
Aysan, Ahmet Faruk
Pang, Gaobo
Véganzonès -Varoudakis, Marie-Ange
F40 - General
E00 - General
E60 - General
During the 1980s and the 1990s, private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has on average shown a decreasing or stagnant trend. This contrasts with the situation of the Asian economies, where private investment has always been more dynamic. In this paper, it is empirically shown for a panel of 39 developing economies--among which four MENA countries-- that in addition to the traditional determinants of investment--such as the growth anticipations and the real interest rate--government policies explain MENA’s low investment rate. Insufficient structural reforms--which have most of the time led to poor financial development and deficient trade openness¬¬--have been a crucial factor for the deficit in private capital formation. The economic uncertainties of the region have represented another factor of the firm’s decisions not to invest. These uncertainties have consisted of the external debt burden and various measures of volatility.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5482/1/MPRA_paper_5482.pdf
Aysan, Ahmet Faruk and Pang, Gaobo and Véganzonès -Varoudakis, Marie-Ange (2006): Uncertainty, Economic Reforms and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6156
2019-10-11T16:33:21Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453433
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473234
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453437
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453431
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6156/
STRUKTURELLE VERÄNDERUNGEN IN DER WIRTSCHAFT DER REPUBLIKEN KRAOATIEN UND BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND
Novak, Branko
Matić, Branko
E62 - Fiscal Policy
E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E0 - General
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
A10 - General
G24 - Investment Banking ; Venture Capital ; Brokerage ; Ratings and Ratings Agencies
E60 - General
E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
E41 - Demand for Money
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
The paper discusses the structural changes taking place in the financial system of the Republic of Croatia after the country became independent. Particular attention is given to the banking system, bankruptcies and rehabilitation of banks. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the development of insurance companies, investment funds and pension funds as important components of the financial system. The state and development of money and capital markets is analyzed as well. The legislation covering the major financial institutions is reviewed and compared with the legislation in highly developed market economies.
2002
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6156/1/MPRA_paper_6156.pdf
Novak, Branko and Matić, Branko (2002): STRUKTURELLE VERÄNDERUNGEN IN DER WIRTSCHAFT DER REPUBLIKEN KRAOATIEN UND BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND. Published in: XXIII. Wissenschaftliches Symposium, Strukturelle Veränderungen in der Wirtschaft der Republiken Kroatien und Bundesrepublik Deutschland (10 October 2002): pp. 31-51.
de
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8468
2019-09-29T22:00:01Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493330
7375626A656374733D51:5130:513030
7375626A656374733D41:4132:413230
7375626A656374733D44:4433:443330
7375626A656374733D48:4830:483030
7375626A656374733D4E:4E35:4E3536
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D48:4837:483730
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443133
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443630
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413134
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8468/
Desarrollo Territorial Rural en America Latina: Discurso y Realidades
Mora-Alfaro, Jorge
I30 - General
Q00 - General
A20 - General
D30 - General
H00 - General
N56 - Latin America ; Caribbean
E60 - General
H70 - General
F00 - General
F15 - Economic Integration
D13 - Household Production and Intrahousehold Allocation
D60 - General
A14 - Sociology of Economics
The reorientation occurred in the socioeconomic, politic and institutional development of the Latin American and Caribbean countries, since 80's decade, provoke significant transformations in the regional rural spaces. The socioeconomic bipolarization is one of the most remarkable phenomena in the new conditions of the rural areas: by one side, was conformed a dynamic sector of companies, familiar's producers and external investors, dedicated to goods exportation or a different non agriculture rural activities (NARA). On the other side, numerous rural families, without the resources and the capabilities to compete with the imported goods, were gradually excluded. The NARA and the familiar pluriactivity are two ways used by the rural families to incomes generations in this new context. But the persistent poverty shows that many of them couldn't obtain the resources needed for their wealth. The Territorial Rural Development Strategies (TRDS) are one of the proposals to impulse the productive, social and institutional development in the rural areas. But these strategies confront serious obstacles to concrete their objectives and to promote the population participation and the rural wealth. In this paper were analyzed the main obstacles to encourage the TRDS in the region.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8468/1/MPRA_paper_8468.pdf
Mora-Alfaro, Jorge (2006): Desarrollo Territorial Rural en America Latina: Discurso y Realidades.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8677
2019-09-28T21:07:44Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4433:443331
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433230
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D4A:4A32:4A3230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8677/
The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries
Kitov, Ivan
Kitov, Oleg
D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
C20 - General
E60 - General
J20 - General
The evolution of labor force participation rate is modeled using a lagged linear function of real economic growth, as expressed by GDP per capita. For the U.S., our model predicts at a two-year horizon with RMSFE of 0.28% for the period between 1965 and 2007. Larger part of the deviation between predicted and measured LFP is explained by artificial dislocations in measured time series induced by major revisions to the CPS methodology in 1979 and 1989. Similar models have been developed for Japan, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, and Sweden.
2008-05-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8677/1/MPRA_paper_8677.pdf
Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2008): The driving force of labor force participation in developed countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9088
2019-09-26T15:50:35Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D44:4437
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9088/
Türk Ekonomisinde Modernleşme Krizleri: Menderes Dönemi ve Planlı Dönem Ekonomik Krizleri
toprak, metin
D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
E00 - General
E60 - General
The Menderes era can be seen the first birth for the modern Turkey. The reason is that all political and economic policies implemented in this period were completely adverse of the previous era (the Inonu era). Nevertheless, structural economic insufficiencies also brought the end of this period. Turkey started to experience a long wasteful expenditure period with the planned era after 1963. This intended wasteful expenditure period lasted until 1977. The second critical time period for modern Turkey started with 1980. January 24 Decisions has changed deeply the development strategy carried out until that day. This second strategy almost reached its limits in 1988. With economic crises in 1994 and 2000, Turkey has seen two big traumas. To cope with economic fluctuations, Turkey has strengthened its long term EU membership policy and IMF-supported economic policy.
2002
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9088/1/MPRA_paper_9088.pdf
toprak, metin (2002): Türk Ekonomisinde Modernleşme Krizleri: Menderes Dönemi ve Planlı Dönem Ekonomik Krizleri. Published in: Türkoloji ve Türk Tarihi Araştırmaları III , Vol. 45, No. 2002/45 (2002): pp. 557-576.
tr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10390
2019-10-01T19:30:00Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443633
7375626A656374733D44:4433:443331
7375626A656374733D48:4832:483234
7375626A656374733D48:4833:483330
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10390/
Use of simulation models for the tax reform in Slovenia
Cok, Mitja
Majcen, Boris
Verbic, Miroslav
Kosak, Marko
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
D31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
H24 - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
H30 - General
E60 - General
In 2007 Slovenia launched a comprehensive reform of its tax system. To estimate the different proposals (including a flat-tax proposal) and their overall effect on individual taxpayers and government budget a static micro-simulation model was constructed and combined with a computable general equilibrium model. It uses a large, comprehensive database (6% of the population) provided by relevant ministries and government agencies and proved to be a reliable tool during implementation of the reform. In the paper, the main characteristics of both models are presented along with the results of different reform scenarios, including those which finally passed the parliament and now form part of the Slovenian tax system.
2008-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10390/1/MPRA_paper_10390.pdf
Cok, Mitja and Majcen, Boris and Verbic, Miroslav and Kosak, Marko (2008): Use of simulation models for the tax reform in Slovenia.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10676
2019-09-28T16:43:14Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10676/
Empirical Testing of the Lucas Critique for the U.S. Economy, 1986 – 2005
Dahiya, Dhruv
E00 - General
E60 - General
Lucas critique suggests parameter instability in usual policy multiplier based models, where the multipliers are estimated by running a regression of output on the relevant/hypothesized policy variables. I aim to test this implication for the U.S. economy using a simple aggregate demand and supply model, with rational expectations as the mechanism of expectation formation, given a money supply specification. The relevant data set (for inferential purposes) is quarterly, 1986:1 – 2005:4, with the exact model specification chosen from Heijdra and Ploeg.
2008-01-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10676/1/MPRA_paper_10676.pdf
Dahiya, Dhruv (2008): Empirical Testing of the Lucas Critique for the U.S. Economy, 1986 – 2005.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10677
2019-10-01T04:54:47Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10677/
Empirical Testing of the Lucas Critique for the U.S. Economy, 1986 – 2005
Dahiya, Dhruv
E00 - General
E60 - General
Lucas critique suggests parameter instability in usual policy multiplier based models, where the multipliers are estimated by running a regression of output on the relevant/hypothesized policy variables. I aim to test this implication for the U.S. economy using a simple aggregate demand and supply model, with rational expectations as the mechanism of expectation formation, given a money supply specification. The relevant data set (for inferential purposes) is quarterly, 1986:1 – 2005:4, with the exact model specification chosen from Heijdra and Ploeg.
2008-01-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10677/1/MPRA_paper_10677.pdf
Dahiya, Dhruv (2008): Empirical Testing of the Lucas Critique for the U.S. Economy, 1986 – 2005.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10706
2019-10-30T19:18:30Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11249
2019-09-26T08:41:14Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433130
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433330
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11249/
Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models
Barnett, William A.
Duzhak, Evgeniya A.
C10 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C30 - General
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E60 - General
As is well known in systems theory, the parameter space of most dynamic models is stratified into subsets, each of which supports a different kind of dynamic solution. Since we do not know the parameters with certainty, knowledge of the location of the bifurcation boundaries is of fundamental importance. Without knowledge of the location of such boundaries, there is no way to know whether the confidence region about the parameters’ point estimates might be crossed by one or more such boundaries. If there are intersections between bifurcation boundaries and a confidence region, the resulting stratification of the confidence region damages inference robustness about dynamics, when such dynamical inferences are produced by the usual simulations at the point estimates only.
Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New Keynesian models, which have become common in monetary policy formulations. As a result, we explore bifurcations within the class of New Keynesian models. We study different specifications of monetary policy rules within the New Keynesian functional structure. In initial research in this area, Barnett and Duzhak (2008) found a New Keynesian Hopf bifurcation boundary, with the setting of the policy parameters influencing the existence and location of the bifurcation boundary. Hopf bifurcation is the most commonly encountered type of bifurcation boundary found among economic models, since the existence of a Hopf bifurcation boundary is accompanied by regular oscillations within a neighborhood of the bifurcation boundary. Now, following a more extensive and systematic search of the parameter space, we also find the existence of Period Doubling (flip) bifurcation boundaries in the class of models.
Central results in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the considered cases. We also solve numerically for the location and properties of the Period Doubling bifurcation boundaries and their dependence upon policy-rule parameter settings.
2008-10-23
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11249/1/MPRA_paper_11249.pdf
Barnett, William A. and Duzhak, Evgeniya A. (2008): Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:12675
2019-10-05T08:15:28Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12675/
Measures of compliance with sustainable development objectives adopted by Romania in the pre-and post-accession
Duduiala-Popescu, Lorena
F00 - General
F15 - Economic Integration
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
E60 - General
Developing the National Strategy for Sustainable Development (SNDD) is the result of the obligation assumed by Romania, as a member of the European Union, in accordance with the objectives agreed at EU and methodological prescriptions of the European Commission. Defining element of this policy is fully connecting Romania to a new philosophy of development, the European Union and its own widely shared around the world - that of sustainable development.
2008-11-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12675/1/MPRA_paper_12675.pdf
Duduiala-Popescu, Lorena (2008): Measures of compliance with sustainable development objectives adopted by Romania in the pre-and post-accession.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:12880
2019-10-16T04:27:34Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D48:4831:483131
7375626A656374733D47:4733:473338
7375626A656374733D48:4837:483736
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12880/
The prospects for Romania and state of the conduct ISPA Program
Duduiala-Popescu, Lorena
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
E60 - General
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F15 - Economic Integration
H11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
G38 - Government Policy and Regulation
H76 - State and Local Government: Other Expenditure Categories
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
European Union countries recorded growth rates differ. Therefore, the European policy of regional development aimed at ensuring heterogeneously and achieve the objective of convergence at European level must take into account the steps taken by each country, especially in if new countries joined.
The paper presents the implementation in 2000-2006 ISPA program and also conducted an analysis of how to attract European funds and how meeting the targets envisaged in the Accession Partnership between the European Union and Romania to meet national modernization of transport infrastructure and environment.
Analysis shows serious dysfunction in ISPA funds absorption compared with funds allocated although, in terms of allocation of funds by the European Commission, Romania is in second place after Poland.
2009-01-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12880/1/MPRA_paper_12880.pdf
Duduiala-Popescu, Lorena (2009): The prospects for Romania and state of the conduct ISPA Program.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13366
2019-09-29T13:29:19Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13366/
An overview of the new architecture for the international monetary system
Popa, Catalin C.
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
E60 - General
The new architecture of the international monetary-financial system is determined by the evolution of the economics, socials, culture and contemporary policies. The reorganization of the monetary-financial system’s institutional and functional formulas is not possible against trimming the intervention according to all the attempts regarding defining the new equation of the global equilibrium. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank represent only a parcel of the institutional system with universal vocation. Its role is to watch over the monetary-financial dimension and it has direct responsibilities regarding formulating certain policies and coherent strategies meant to assure the general monetary and the global financial equilibrium.
2007-03-18
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13366/1/MPRA_paper_13366.pdf
Popa, Catalin C. (2007): An overview of the new architecture for the international monetary system. Published in: Scientific Bulletin of Naval Academy 'Mircea cel Batran' , Vol. 1, No. ISSN 1454 - 864X (12 December 2007): pp. 403-409.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13367
2019-10-19T16:47:19Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453636
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463533
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13367/
The tendencies in defining an optimum globalization model
Popa, Catalin C.
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations
E60 - General
Over viewing the most recently evolutions throughout global economy, we can easily conceive that the collateral effects of economical globalization and market integration, represents the main issues debated in specialized professional or political circles. The unanimous impression underlines the fact that integration in contemporary global market development exceeded too much and to profound the conceptual frame formulated as work hypothesis for the beginning of ’80’s the realities evolving radically uncontrolled. In this case, the free capital global running is no longer a factor for market equilibrium as “market fundamentalists” predicted, financial integration as global process creating and forcing gradually the market bubbles in lack of an efficient frame of global supervision. In this context, the international effort should be oriented toward remodeling the fundamental global structures implicated in globalization process.
2008-11-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13367/1/MPRA_paper_13367.pdf
Popa, Catalin C. (2008): The tendencies in defining an optimum globalization model. Published in: Knowledge Based Organization 2008 International Conference, November 2008, Sibiu, Romania , Vol. 3, No. ISSN 1843-6722 (15 November 2008): pp. 271-277.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13711
2019-09-28T13:35:45Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13711/
Microfinance Institutions in Nigeria
Mejeha, Remy O.
Nwachukwu, Ifeanyi N.
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
E60 - General
The advocation of micro – financing was triggered by the poor performance of the conventional finance sector. The essence was to reach the overwhelming population of the poor to assist in the drive to alleviate poverty. Barely a million had been provided with some credit in Nigeria while a yawning 40 million poor people are yet to be attended to. In terms of supply, commercial and development finance institutions are in the fore front of the outfits that provide credits to the microfinance institutions. Despite their efforts, rates of interest, inequitable distribution of wealth and income and outreaching the poor constitute challenges to the operations. The establishment of microfinance institutions in Nigeria was based on weak institutional capacity, weak capital base, existence of a huge unserved market, utilization of SMEEIS fund among other things
2008-08-14
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13711/1/MPRA_paper_13711.pdf
Mejeha, Remy O. and Nwachukwu, Ifeanyi N. (2008): Microfinance Institutions in Nigeria.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13883
2019-10-02T09:57:47Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13883/
When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies
Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela
Vegh, Carlos
F30 - General
E30 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E60 - General
Based on a sample of 104 countries, we document four key stylized facts regarding the interaction between capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. First, net capital inflows are procyclical (i.e., external borrowing increases in good times and falls in bad times) in most OECD and developing countries. Second, fiscal policy is procyclical (i.e., government spending increases in good times and falls in bad times) for the majority of developing countries. Third, for emerging markets, monetary policy appears to be procyclical (i.e., policy rates are lowered in good times and raised in bad times). Fourth, in developing countries – and particularly for emerging markets – periods of capital inflows are associated with expansionary macroeconomic policies and periods of capital outflows with contractionary macroeconomic policies. In such countries, therefore, when it rains, it does indeed pour.
2004-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13883/1/MPRA_paper_13883.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela and Vegh, Carlos (2004): When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. Published in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 (2005): pp. 11-53.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16033
2019-10-04T14:28:55Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16033/
Making The Stability Pact More Flexible: Can It Lead to Procyclical Fiscal Policies?
Mackiewicz, Michał
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
E60 - General
One of the often discussed negative aspects of the Stability and Growth Pact is the rigidity of its deficit rule. Several reform proposals aim currently at alleviating the rule in order to allow the automatic stabilizers to operate freely. However, such a reform is likely to cause even further deterioration of fiscal balances in the member countries. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that, in the past, increasing the structural deficit had a strong negative impact on a degree of anti-cyclical fiscal stabilization. This suggests that the reform of the Pact, through higher structural deficits, can decrease rather then increase the scope of anti-cyclical fiscal actions in the EMU member countries.
2005-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16033/1/MPRA_paper_16033.pdf
Mackiewicz, Michał (2005): Making The Stability Pact More Flexible: Can It Lead to Procyclical Fiscal Policies? Published in: Fiscal Studies , Vol. 28, No. 2 (2007): pp. 251-268.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16034
2019-09-27T15:54:20Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16034/
Determinants of Cyclicality of Fiscal Surpluses in The OECD Countries
Mackiewicz, Michał
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
E60 - General
In this paper we examine factors that make some governments revert to procyclical fiscal policies despite the standard normative prescription being to conduct fiscal policy countercyclically. In order to avoid the pitfalls of the two-step methods previous studies have typically used we used a one-step method with interaction variables. We found robust statistical evidence that procyclical fiscal policies are typically run by countries with weak institutions. There was also some empirical support for a hypothesis that countries that have accumulated a high debt-to-GDP ratio tend to run procyclical fiscal policies, possibly as a result of the financial constraints. We found no evidence that any other variable among the ones suggested in the literature explains the way in which governments react to the business cycle.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16034/1/MPRA_paper_16034.pdf
Mackiewicz, Michał (2008): Determinants of Cyclicality of Fiscal Surpluses in The OECD Countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16035
2019-09-28T07:07:54Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16035/
On The Mechanisms of Achieving Fiscal (Un)Sustainability – The Case of Poland
Mackiewicz, Michał
Krajewski, Piotr
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
E60 - General
Aim of this paper is to assess empirically the sustainability of budgetary policy in Poland in Years 1992-2005. Our results show that structural surplus did not respond in a way that would stabilize the level of public debt, thus not fulfilling the condition of sustainability. It also showed asymmetric behaviour of revenues and expenditures: while the former tended to adjust to the level of debt in a stabilizing manner, the latter moved independently from debt, while also in a non-stationary way, which made fiscal policy unsustainable in the long run. Fiscal institutions were unable to respond in a debt- stabilizing manner to two large negative budgetary shocks: structural reforms of the public sector, and joining the EU. This makes them unlikely to respond to the future fiscal shocks, and suggests that fiscal institutions in Poland lack the ability to run sustainable fiscal policy.
2007-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16035/1/MPRA_paper_16035.pdf
Mackiewicz, Michał and Krajewski, Piotr (2007): On The Mechanisms of Achieving Fiscal (Un)Sustainability – The Case of Poland. Forthcoming in: Empirica (1 April 2009)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16240
2019-09-29T00:11:01Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423534
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16240/
Employer of Last Resort Policy and Feminist Economics: Social Provisioning and Socialization of Investment
Zdravka, Todorova
B50 - General
B54 - Feminist Economics
E60 - General
The paper discusses the Employment of Last Resort (ELR) policy proposal that has emerged from Post Keynesian theory as an embodiment of what Keynes called “socialization of investment,” as well as an avenue for a social provisioning approach towards socialization of unpaid care labor. Intersections between Post Keynesian and feminist economics are delineated. The paper proposes avenues for input from feminist economics into formulation of an ELR policy, and raises questions about transformation of gender relations.
2009-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16240/1/MPRA_paper_16240.pdf
Zdravka, Todorova (2009): Employer of Last Resort Policy and Feminist Economics: Social Provisioning and Socialization of Investment.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16501
2019-09-26T21:46:50Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D4A:4A30:4A3031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16501/
The fading 1990s in Japan: Driving forces behind the unemployment upsurge
Agnese, Pablo
Sala, Hector
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
J01 - Labor Economics: General
E60 - General
This paper sheds new light on the causes of the unemployment upsurge in Japan during the “fading 1990s”, an unprecedented period of structural crisis. We estimate a labor market model and identify the main macroeconomic determinants of labor demand and labor supply decisions in last decades. We then conduct dynamic simulations and assess the relative contribution of these determinants to the evolution of unemployment from 1990 to 2002. Beyond the leading role exerted by the decline in productivity growth, we find the active and expansionary measures undertaken by the government had an overall negative effect on the labor market.
2008-03-19
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16501/1/MPRA_paper_16501.pdf
Agnese, Pablo and Sala, Hector (2008): The fading 1990s in Japan: Driving forces behind the unemployment upsurge. Published in: International Review of Economics and Finance , Vol. 18, No. 3 (June 2009): pp. 428-439.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16726
2019-09-28T06:33:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D42:4232:423232
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16726/
What lessons from the 1930s?
Alcidi, Cinzia
Gros, Daniel
B22 - Macroeconomics
E60 - General
This paper explores three areas in which the experience of the Great Depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy and the systemic stability of the banking system.
We confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation must be avoided.
With regard to fiscal policy, the picture is less clear. We cannot confirm a widespread opinion according to which fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. We find that fiscal policy went to limit of what was possible under the conditions as they existed then.
Our investigation of the US banking system shows a surprising resilience of the sector: commercial banking operations (deposit taking and lending) remained profitable even during the worst years. This suggests one policy conclusion: At present the authorities, in both the US and Europe, have little choice but to make up for the losses on ‘legacy’ assets and wait for banks to earn back their capital. But to prevent future crisis of this type one should make sure that losses from the investment banking arms cannot impair commercial banking operations. At least a partial separation of commercial and investment banking seems thus justified by the greater stability of commercial banking operations.
2009-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16726/1/MPRA_paper_16726.pdf
Alcidi, Cinzia and Gros, Daniel (2009): What lessons from the 1930s?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16799
2019-09-28T07:22:47Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D42:4232:423232
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16799/
Un Marco de Consistencia Macroeconómica para la Economía Ecuatoriana: Un Regreso a los Fundamentos
Gachet, Ivan
Girjalva, Diego
Rivadeneira, Ana
Uribe, Carlos
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
B22 - Macroeconomics
E60 - General
This document presents a Macroeconomic Consistency Model for a dollarized economy such as Ecuador. Based on a simply accounting framework that combined the social accounting matrix with the flow of funds, we integrate the different sectors of the economics through a matrix of income, expenditure, saving, and asset and liability accumulation. This is done by using Easterly's (1989) Consistency Accounting Matrix which specifies the linkages between sources and uses of funds as well as between institutional sector accounts. This approach ensures the numerical consistency of data drawn from different sources in such a way that, both, the sectoral budget constraints as well as the overall economy-wide budget constraints are simultaneously satisfied. From this model we were able to estimate the liquidity of the economy, the actual amount of government subsidies, and the gaps in the Ecuadorian economy.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16799/3/MPRA_paper_16799.pdf
Gachet, Ivan and Girjalva, Diego and Rivadeneira, Ana and Uribe, Carlos (2007): Un Marco de Consistencia Macroeconómica para la Economía Ecuatoriana: Un Regreso a los Fundamentos. Published in: Cuestiones Económicas , Vol. 23, No. 3 (2007): pp. 5-65.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16937
2019-09-28T00:30:50Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16937/
Fiscal stimulus for debt intolerant countries?
Reinhart, Carmen
Reinhart, Vincent
F00 - General
E50 - General
E60 - General
Fashions are hard to resist, and it is now fashionable in much of the North to rely on a fiscal engine of growth. As for emerging markets, however, boosting spending at a time in which revenues are contracting or, in many cases, collapsing for an uncertain period of time is an more complicated matter. Policymakers would do well to keep four risks in mind. Fiscal multipliers: North and South; Emerging markets and global crowding out; Domestic debt is no panacea; and Above all--remember debt intolerance!
2009-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16937/1/MPRA_paper_16937.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (2009): Fiscal stimulus for debt intolerant countries?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:17008
2019-09-29T21:17:10Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17008/
Does Volatility in Government Borrowing Leads to Higher Inflation? Evidence from Pakistan
Haider, Adnan
Khan, Safdar Ullah
E62 - Fiscal Policy
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E60 - General
This study analyzes the impact of volatility in government borrowing from central bank (GBCB) on domestic inflation in Pakistan. This paper utilizes Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Hetroskedasticity (GARCH) model to estimate volatility in GBCB using monthly data from July 1992 to June 2007. The empirical results, based on auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) with bound testing technique suggest that domestic inflation in Pakistan is related with volatility in government borrowing from central bank in the long run. Furthermore, error correction model (ECM) estimates show that in the short run, inflation is also affected by volatility in GBCB.
2007-12-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17008/1/MPRA_paper_17008.pdf
Haider, Adnan and Khan, Safdar Ullah (2007): Does Volatility in Government Borrowing Leads to Higher Inflation? Evidence from Pakistan. Published in: Journal of Applied Economic Sciences , Vol. 2008, No. 5 (4 July 2008): pp. 187-202.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18208
2019-09-28T16:29:10Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453636
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18208/
UN’ANALISI DEI FLUSSI FINANZIARI DELLA REGIONE SICILIA
Greco, Maria Giuseppina
Torrisi, Gianpiero
E62 - Fiscal Policy
E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
E60 - General
The paper presents an analysis of (Italian region) Sicilia’s financial flows using data
from Regional Public Accounts. The paper is divided into two main parts. The first part of the work
considers financial flows as a whole. The second part considers more in detail expenditure and
revenue both in current and in capital account. The analysis shows that Sicilian regional data are
characterised by similarities as well as peculiar aspects with respect both to national aggregate
and the Southern one.
2009
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18208/1/MPRA_paper_18208.pdf
Greco, Maria Giuseppina and Torrisi, Gianpiero (2009): UN’ANALISI DEI FLUSSI FINANZIARI DELLA REGIONE SICILIA.
it
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:19657
2019-10-02T04:31:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19657/
In the Midst of Global Financial Slowdown: the Indonesian Experience
Siregar, Reza
Wiranto, Willeam
F01 - Global Outlook
E60 - General
The objective of our study is to review and debate selected factors frequently underlined as the foundations to the strength and the resilient of economic growth in Indonesia in recent years. We first examine closely the compositions of the country’s exports to particularly highlight the role of primary commodities and diverse export destinations in cushioning the country’s balance of payment position. Next, our study assesses the country’s management of macroeconomic policies, especially the monetary and fiscal policies, and debates the overall effectiveness and limitations of these policy measures. Lastly, this paper explores the repentant stage of the country’s infrastructure, arguably a vital factor for the country’s ability to attract the much-needed domestic and foreign direct investment.
2009-12-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19657/1/MPRA_paper_19657.pdf
Siregar, Reza and Wiranto, Willeam (2009): In the Midst of Global Financial Slowdown: the Indonesian Experience.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:19757
2019-09-27T19:15:08Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473030
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19757/
Financial Stability and Public Policy: An Overview
Ghosh, Saibal
G00 - General
G01 - Financial Crises
E60 - General
The paper reviews the sources of market failure in financial institutions and markets and what can be done to alleviate them. It examines game-theoretic explanations for financial instability, in particular the role of asymmetric information in generating destabilizing behavior. In the area of remedies, the paper analyses the potential contribution of official safety nets and what can be done to minimize the associated moral hazard. It discusses the role of public policy in this context.
2001-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19757/1/MPRA_paper_19757.pdf
Ghosh, Saibal (2001): Financial Stability and Public Policy: An Overview. Published in: Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers No. 1 (January 2001): pp. 109-131.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:20029
2019-09-28T16:25:00Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20029/
Monetary Policy & Monetary Regime in an Interest Free Economy: An Alternate Approach In Monetary Economics amidst Great Recession
Shaikh, Salman
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E52 - Monetary Policy
E60 - General
This paper reviews limited, but precious academic literature on central banking and monetary management in Islamic finance. It discusses the building blocks of an Islamic monetary system. It discusses how savings would feature despite discontinuation of interest, how inflation will be checked with central banks not having at its disposal conventional OMO, how liquidity will be managed in banking sector when central bank wants to inject liquidity or mop up funds. How and to what extent the institution of Zakat would enable the government to meet its fiscal targets and does not crowd out private sector. How balance of payments and exchange rate stability can be managed in an interest free economy. If in the short term, the government or central bank needs alternative source of revenue other than Zakat, they can issue GDP linked bonds. This could replace T-bill and provide a base instrument for OMO and liquidity management in the banking and financial sector.
2010-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20029/2/MPRA_paper_20029.pdf
Shaikh, Salman (2010): Monetary Policy & Monetary Regime in an Interest Free Economy: An Alternate Approach In Monetary Economics amidst Great Recession.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:20094
2019-09-29T08:26:13Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453634
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453635
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20094/
Política tributaria y economía fiscal La posición Hayek (1959, 1979) con comentarios de Brenann/Buchanan (1980).
Estrada, Fernando
E62 - Fiscal Policy
E64 - Incomes Policy ; Price Policy
E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
E60 - General
This article describes the argumentative structure of Hayek on the relationship between tax policy and redistribution. It is observed throughout its work giving special attention to two of his works: The Constitution of Liberty (1959) and Law, Legislation and Liberty, Vol. 3, The Political Order of Free People af University of Chicago Press, Chicago, (1979) Hayek describes one of the most complete allegations on the SFP progressive tax system (progressive tax). According to the author the history of the tax system works against such a tax model. The author displays a variety of arguments on the ground preferred by his critics of liberal democracy
2010-01-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20094/1/MPRA_paper_20094.pdf
Estrada, Fernando (2010): Política tributaria y economía fiscal La posición Hayek (1959, 1979) con comentarios de Brenann/Buchanan (1980).
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:20489
2019-09-28T12:08:47Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D5A:5A31:5A3132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20489/
Sukukization: Islamic Economic Risk Factors in Shari’ah View
Alsayyed, Nidal
Z12 - Religion
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
A10 - General
E60 - General
Despite the Economic closeness of overall concept, Sukukization (Islamic Securitization) is not equal to “Securitization” as it is known in its conventional sense. Securitization, generally relates to the converting of loans of various sorts into marketable securities by packaging the loans into pools and then selling shares of ownership in the pool itself. Sukukization, on the hand; refers to, Islamic Sukuk Investment (as defined by AAOIFI) are certificates of equal value representing undivided shares in ownership of tangible assets, usufruct and services.
The development of innovative Economic financial solutions in the Muslim world has been dormant for centuries. It is only recently, since the early 1970s that significant work that has been done in the field of Islamic Capital Market. In order to take benefit from Western financial structures, care must be taken to make sure that the concepts are acceptable by Shari’ah. The West has had significant success in linking the End-Investor (Excess Capital) with the most optimal user of this Excess Capital; be it the Stock Market, Debt Market or the Securitization structures, they all serve the purpose of linking Capital with its most optimal (on a risk-adjusted basis) user. It must be kept in mind, that even though the West has had more success than the Muslim world in implementation of a financial system, it has been plagued with constant cycles of boom and bust. The most recent financial markets crisis has again opened the discussion for the need of structural changes to the current financial models/instruments in place. Most commentators have stressed for the need of more regulation whereas the stress should be on making changes to the structural features of the financial instruments. An in-depth discussion of the financial system is beyond the scope of this article and for now the focus will only be on the Islamic Securitization structures (Sukukization) for the housing capital market and the relevant Economic factors.
2010-01-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20489/1/MPRA_paper_20489.pdf
Alsayyed, Nidal (2010): Sukukization: Islamic Economic Risk Factors in Shari’ah View.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:20533
2019-09-27T04:37:03Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3130
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463534
7375626A656374733D50:5031:503136
7375626A656374733D4A:4A36:4A3632
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D4E:4E33:4E3330
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463031
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D44:4435:443530
7375626A656374733D4F:4F32:4F3234
7375626A656374733D4A:4A30:4A3031
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
7375626A656374733D50:5035:503530
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463131
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D49:4932:493238
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20533/
International economic theory and politics: world structure before, during and after the early 21st Century Crisis
Naqvi, Nadeem
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
N10 - General, International, or Comparative
F54 - Colonialism ; Imperialism ; Postcolonialism
P16 - Political Economy
J62 - Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
E30 - General
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
N30 - General, International, or Comparative
F01 - Global Outlook
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
D50 - General
O24 - Trade Policy ; Factor Movement Policy ; Foreign Exchange Policy
J01 - Labor Economics: General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E10 - General
E60 - General
G01 - Financial Crises
P50 - General
F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
I28 - Government Policy
In his Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations Adam Smith (1776) considered the phenomenon of division of labor so enormously significant for the creation of a nation’s wealth that he devoted the first three chapters of his book to an investigation of this process. This is an ongoing process of greater and greater specialization, and there have been episodes of faster pace, and some slower pace, but the process has never stopped so far in human history. However, this process, carried far enough, can eventually results in episodes, sometimes painfully prolonged, in which there emerges a divergence between the distribution of quantities supplied of horizontally-differentiated distinct types of human capital embodied in different persons and distribution of quantities demanded of persons with distinct skills by employers, private or public, or otherwise. This sustained divergence of supply and demand distributions of distinct skill categories may be called Embodied Human Capital Unemployment. This is a phenomenon not seen before in social history, simply because specialization of persons in very narrowly partitioned skill types that are, effectively, non-transferable across different persons, had never occurred before in our history. That is why it is a new phenomenon, and it is time we understood what it is. Moreover, it has an abiding character, a stationary state nature, and (1) thus should emerge as an equilibrium phenomenon in a fully specified general equilibrium model of a market economy, and (2) should be of concern to us, since it is going to be around for a while as we all live our lives.
I illustrate the relevance of this new concept of unemployment to the U.S economy in the first decade of the 21st Century. This helps achieve a deeper understanding of the current global economic crisis, and inter alia to identification of potentially effective, and potentially ineffective, public policies. Additional implications are (b) the emergence of a new social formation that may be called World Market Capitalism, which has a vastly different economic foundation of relations of production and income distribution compared to the pre-21st Century economic system that then existed in the world, and (c) the transition from a uni-polar world, with the U.S.A. as the single center of power, after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, to a multi-polar world order at the end of the first decade of the 21st Century, with implications for strategic interaction and coalition formation. (403 words)
2010-02-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20533/1/MPRA_paper_20533.pdf
Naqvi, Nadeem (2010): International economic theory and politics: world structure before, during and after the early 21st Century Crisis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:20662
2019-10-05T05:07:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D5A:5A31:5A3132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20662/
Sukukization: Islamic Economic Risk Factors in Shari’ah View
Alsayyed, Nidal
Z12 - Religion
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
A10 - General
E60 - General
Despite the Economic closeness of overall concept, Sukukization (Islamic Securitization) is not equal to “Securitization” as it is known in its conventional sense. Securitization, generally relates to the converting of loans of various sorts into marketable securities by packaging the loans into pools and then selling shares of ownership in the pool itself. Sukukization, on the hand; refers to, Islamic Sukuk Investment (as defined by AAOIFI) are certificates of equal value representing undivided shares in ownership of tangible assets, usufruct and services.
The development of innovative Economic financial solutions in the Muslim world has been dormant for centuries. It is only recently, since the early 1970s that significant work that has been done in the field of Islamic Capital Market. In order to take benefit from Western financial structures, care must be taken to make sure that the concepts are acceptable by Shari’ah. The West has had significant success in linking the End-Investor (Excess Capital) with the most optimal user of this Excess Capital; be it the Stock Market, Debt Market or the Securitization structures, they all serve the purpose of linking Capital with its most optimal (on a risk-adjusted basis) user. It must be kept in mind, that even though the West has had more success than the Muslim world in implementation of a financial system, it has been plagued with constant cycles of boom and bust. The most recent financial markets crisis has again opened the discussion for the need of structural changes to the current financial models/instruments in place. Most commentators have stressed for the need of more regulation whereas the stress should be on making changes to the structural features of the financial instruments. An in-depth discussion of the financial system is beyond the scope of this article and for now the focus will only be on the Islamic Securitization structures (Sukukization) for the housing capital market and the relevant Economic factors.
2010-01-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20662/1/MPRA_paper_20662.pdf
Alsayyed, Nidal (2010): Sukukization: Islamic Economic Risk Factors in Shari’ah View.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:20675
2019-09-29T06:59:38Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D5A:5A31:5A3132
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20675/
Sukukization: Islamic Economic Risk Factors in Shari’ah View
Alsayyed, Nidal
Farhan, Malik
Z12 - Religion
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
A10 - General
E60 - General
Despite the Economic closeness of overall concept, Sukukization (Islamic Securitization) is not equal to “Securitization” as it is known in its conventional sense. Securitization, generally relates to the converting of loans of various sorts into marketable securities by packaging the loans into pools and then selling shares of ownership in the pool itself. Sukukization, on the hand; refers to, Islamic Sukuk Investment (as defined by AAOIFI) are certificates of equal value representing undivided shares in ownership of tangible assets, usufruct and services.
The development of innovative Economic financial solutions in the Muslim world has been dormant for centuries. It is only recently, since the early 1970s that significant work that has been done in the field of Islamic Capital Market. In order to take benefit from Western financial structures, care must be taken to make sure that the concepts are acceptable by Shari’ah. The West has had significant success in linking the End-Investor (Excess Capital) with the most optimal user of this Excess Capital; be it the Stock Market, Debt Market or the Securitization structures, they all serve the purpose of linking Capital with its most optimal (on a risk-adjusted basis) user. It must be kept in mind, that even though the West has had more success than the Muslim world in implementation of a financial system, it has been plagued with constant cycles of boom and bust. The most recent financial markets crisis has again opened the discussion for the need of structural changes to the current financial models/instruments in place. Most commentators have stressed for the need of more regulation whereas the stress should be on making changes to the structural features of the financial instruments. An in-depth discussion of the financial system is beyond the scope of this article and for now the focus will only be on the Islamic Securitization structures (Sukukization) for the housing capital market and the relevant Economic factors.
2010-01-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20675/1/MPRA_paper_20675.pdf
Alsayyed, Nidal and Farhan, Malik (2010): Sukukization: Islamic Economic Risk Factors in Shari’ah View.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21562
2019-09-27T07:35:10Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21562/
The size of the underground economy in Japan
Kanao, Koji
Hamori, Shigeyuki
O10 - General
E60 - General
This paper empirically analyzes the size of the underground economy in Japan. The results show that (i) the size of the underground GDP peaked in the early 1990s but has been declining since; (ii) the underground economy reached its peak in around 1992, approximating 25% of nominal GDP; and (iii) two laws (the Act for the Prevention of Wrongful Acts by Members of Organized Crime Groups and the Act Regulating the Adult Entertainment Business, etc.) successfully worked to reduce the size of the underground economy.
2010-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21562/1/MPRA_paper_21562.pdf
Kanao, Koji and Hamori, Shigeyuki (2010): The size of the underground economy in Japan.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21754
2019-09-26T11:26:44Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D49:4931:493132
7375626A656374733D49:4932:493238
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D51:5135:513538
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21754/
How policy can influence human capital accumulation and environment quality.
Basseti, Thomas
Benos, Nikos
Karagiannis, Stelios
I12 - Health Behavior
I28 - Government Policy
E60 - General
Q58 - Government Policy
This paper considers the implications of education and environment policy for growth in a model where the interactions between health, education, and the environment are taken into account. With respect to previous works, in which one of these three dimensions is omitted, we consider their combined effects, arriving to novel results in the literature. According to our model, higher taxes and environment spending share in total public spending do not affect welfare significantly, but they have an important positive impact on human capital and environment quality. Here, a positive relationship between public education spending and environment quality emerges as well as between environment maintenance expenditure and human capital. At the same time, countries with a high environmental quality should spend less on environment maintenance compared to heavily polluted countries. Finally, for countries with advanced abatement technologies, the relationship between human capital and environment is positive, which is compatible with the environmental Kuznets curve.
2010-03-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21754/1/MPRA_paper_21754.pdf
Basseti, Thomas and Benos, Nikos and Karagiannis, Stelios (2010): How policy can influence human capital accumulation and environment quality.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21981
2019-09-27T06:10:21Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D41:4131
7375626A656374733D48:4835
7375626A656374733D42:4232:423232
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D48:4832
7375626A656374733D48:4837:483731
7375626A656374733D48:4832:483233
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D48:4837:483730
7375626A656374733D48:4837
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453635
7375626A656374733D4E:4E34:4E3436
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21981/
Devouring the Leviathan: fiscal policy and public expenditure in Colombia
Estrada, Fernando
E62 - Fiscal Policy
A1 - General Economics
H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
B22 - Macroeconomics
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H71 - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H23 - Externalities ; Redistributive Effects ; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
A10 - General
E60 - General
H70 - General
H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations
E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
N46 - Latin America ; Caribbean
Overall, this paper presents a white swan that seems to confirm the hypothesis of Alesina / Tabellini / Campante (2008). Fiscal policy in many developing countries is procyclical. Specifically, the former may explain monetary policy failures associated with problems of political agency. And in this case, the trend of the cycles is caused by voters who seek to devour the Leviathan by reducing their incomes. In these cases, voters observe the conditions of the economy, but not willing to cover the costs of corrupt governments. When they observe a boom, voters optimally demand more public goods or lower taxes, and this induces a procyclical bias in fiscal policy. The empirical evidence is consistent with this explanation: Procyclicality of fiscal policy is more pronounced in more corrupt democracies.
2010-04-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21981/1/MPRA_paper_21981.pdf
Estrada, Fernando (2010): Devouring the Leviathan: fiscal policy and public expenditure in Colombia.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22078
2019-09-27T17:28:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22078/
Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables
Davide, Furceri
Aleksandra, Zdzienicka
E60 - General
G01 - Financial Crises
The aim of this work is to assess the short and medium term impact of banking crises on developing economies.
Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce
significant output losses, both in the short and in the medium term. The effect depends on structural and policy
variables. Output losses are larger for relatively more wealthy economies, characterized by a higher level of
financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy have
been found to be efficient tools to attenuate the effect of the crises. Among banking intervention policies, liquidity
support resulted to be the one associated with lower output losses.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22078/2/MPRA_paper_22078.pdf
Davide, Furceri and Aleksandra, Zdzienicka (2010): Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23358
2019-09-29T04:38:02Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D48:4832:483230
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23358/
Tax Design in the OECD: A test of the Hines-Summers Hypothesis
Furceri, Davide
Karras, Georgios
H20 - General
E60 - General
This paper investigates the effects of economic size and trade openness on tax design in the OECD. Using data for thirty OECD countries over the 1965-2007 period, we test the recently proposed Hines-Summers [2009] Hypothesis, according to which the smaller the size and the greater the openness of the economy, the more it will rely on expenditure taxes and the less on income taxes. Our findings show that the Hines-Summers Hypothesis can claim broad, statistically significant, and robust empirical support in the OECD data sets we examined.
2010-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23358/1/MPRA_paper_23358.pdf
Furceri, Davide and Karras, Georgios (2010): Tax Design in the OECD: A test of the Hines-Summers Hypothesis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23522
2019-09-30T06:13:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23522/
La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo
Calabria, Alejandro A.
F40 - General
E60 - General
The prices of most commodities have been rising steadily for more than four years. This phenomenon, which has been taking place for a longer period than usual, has been favourable to several countries and economic sectors. Many economies based on the primary sector have been suddenly benefited and have increased their incomes considerably due to the export of these products. In case this international
context which highly favours these countries started to reverse, the situation for them would be more difficult. The allocation and utilizations of these “extraordinary” incomes which result from the price of the basic products being extremely above its historical average are of vital importance to the evolution of the economy of each country. If said incomes were used orderly, anticipating that the international context can vary unexpectedly, the economic changes that the country will suffer when the situation
reversed would be moderate. On the contrary, if these incomes were not used sensibly or bearing in mind that they will not last forever, when the situation reversed the
consequences in the economy would be, at least, very complicated. Analyzing the fiscal accounts and the relationship between Argentina and the external sector -trading,credit, investment- it can be clearly seen that Argentina is following the last option. Public expenditure has evolved practically keeping pace with the price of commodities. The fact that both surpluses -commercial and fiscal- are highly dependent on the international price of the raw materials is alarming. Argentina’s increasing isolation from the international credit channels complicates this situation even more. The aim of this
paper is to find the possibilities and threats that are faced by Argentina’s economy and point out some policies that should be implemented in the short run so that when the
favourable international context reversed the consequences would not be so harmful.
2008-11-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23522/1/MPRA_paper_23522.pdf
Calabria, Alejandro A. (2008): La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23565
2019-10-11T06:31:58Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23565/
La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo
Calabria, Alejandro A.
F40 - General
E60 - General
The prices of most commodities have been rising steadily for more than four years. This phenomenon, which has been taking place for a longer period than usual, has been favourable to several countries and economic sectors. Many economies based on the primary sector have been suddenly benefited and have increased their incomes considerably due to the export of these products. In case this international
context which highly favours these countries started to reverse, the situation for them would be more difficult. The allocation and utilizations of these “extraordinary” incomes which result from the price of the basic products being extremely above its historical average are of vital importance to the evolution of the economy of each country. If said incomes were used orderly, anticipating that the international context can vary unexpectedly, the economic changes that the country will suffer when the situation
reversed would be moderate. On the contrary, if these incomes were not used sensibly or bearing in mind that they will not last forever, when the situation reversed the
consequences in the economy would be, at least, very complicated. Analyzing the fiscal accounts and the relationship between Argentina and the external sector -trading,credit, investment- it can be clearly seen that Argentina is following the last option. Public expenditure has evolved practically keeping pace with the price of commodities. The fact that both surpluses -commercial and fiscal- are highly dependent on the international price of the raw materials is alarming. Argentina’s increasing isolation from the international credit channels complicates this situation even more. The aim of this
paper is to find the possibilities and threats that are faced by Argentina’s economy and point out some policies that should be implemented in the short run so that when the
favourable international context reversed the consequences would not be so harmful.
2008-11-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23565/1/MPRA_paper_23565.pdf
Calabria, Alejandro A. (2008): La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23738
2019-09-27T23:11:56Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3437
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3533
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23738/
Productivity and Convergence in India: State Level Analysis
Kumar, Surender
Managi, Shunsuke
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O53 - Asia including Middle East
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
E60 - General
Total factor productivity plays an important role in the growth of the economy. Using recently available state level data over 1993 and 2005, we find widespread regional variation in productivity changes. In the beginning of the liberalization era, improvement in technical efficiency contributes to the growth of the productivity. In the later periods, however, the productivity growth is governed by the growth in technical progress. We also study about convergence in state level and find a tendency of convergence in productivity growth though only states that are efficient remain on the production frontier.
2009-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23738/1/MPRA_paper_23738.pdf
Kumar, Surender and Managi, Shunsuke (2009): Productivity and Convergence in India: State Level Analysis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24247
2019-09-27T01:31:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D51:5131:513134
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24247/
Evaluation of The Necessary of Agriculture Public Expenditure for Poverty Reduction and Food Security in Benin
Labintan, Adeniyi Constant
Q14 - Agricultural Finance
E60 - General
Benin is predominantly an agricultural country which accounted for 39% of GDP with 70% economically active population in the agricultural sector, that year. Small, independent farmers produce 90% of agricultural output, but only about 17% of the total area is cultivated, much of it in the form of collective farms since 1975. Benin with subtropical climate have enough water resources and land facilities to growth and be one power agriculture country but the sector is plagued may many problem such as lack of infrastructure, poor utilization of rural credit, and inefficient and insufficient use of fertilizer, insecticides, and seeds. Those problems have a big effect on agriculture income and rural household income and the high poverty rate.This is contract between resources potentiality and poor living condition. However the manly source of those problems maybe the lack on public expenditure in this sector.
The purpose of this research is to evaluate how the low public expenditure has impact on the agriculture growth and poverty rate.
To evaluate that, we first made a theory approach of the impact of agriculture growth and poverty reduction by presentation the model of model elaborate by KAWALI and son in 2006 to evaluate the contribution of public expenditure to achieve MDG b agriculture grows. The application of this model on Benin agriculture show Benin need the annual Agriculture expenditure required for 2004-2015 is 356 Million USD( 8,1% agriculture growth per year) with the conservative scenario beside 301 Million USD (7,1% agriculture growth per year) with optimistic scenario.
However the analysis of agriculture public expenditure in Benin is very low( lower than 10% of the GDP) and the public expenditure general is lower than 25% of GDP (lower than 25% that is recommend by best practice) and the high rate is in military not in growthing sector. This lack of sufficient public agriculture expenditure is felt at upriver and backing of the agriculture sector. This is justifying by the agriculture production surplus management problem in this year. This is du to inability of crops stocking, crops conservation system lack and crops distribution system lack due to (infrastructure lack) and insufficient investment lack. The importance of public expenditure is become more and more a crucial problem and news policies should be elaborated and focus in major parties of public expenditure in economic growth sector that is agriculture in Benin because with climate change negative effect the situation will be more degradation and rural poor population will be increase faster.
2010-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24247/1/MPRA_paper_24247.pdf
Labintan, Adeniyi Constant (2010): Evaluation of The Necessary of Agriculture Public Expenditure for Poverty Reduction and Food Security in Benin.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:25935
2019-09-27T08:08:17Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D48:4832:483231
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433730
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443630
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25935/
On the Case for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution
Marina, Azzimonti
Marco, Battaglini
Stephen, Coate
H21 - Efficiency ; Optimal Taxation
C70 - General
D60 - General
E60 - General
This paper uses the political economy model of Battaglini and Coate (2008) to analyze the impact of a
balanced budget rule that requires that legislators do not run deficits. It considers both a strict rule which
cannot be circumvented and a rule that can be overridden by a super-majority of legislators. A strict rule
leads to a gradual but substantial reduction in the level of public debt. In the short run, citizens will be
worse off as public spending is reduced and taxes are raised to bring down debt. In the long run, the
benefits of a lower debt burden must be weighed against the costs of greater volatility in taxes and less
responsive public good provision. To quantify these effects, the model is calibrated to the U.S. economy
using data from 1940-2005. While the long run net benefits are positive, they are outweighed by the short
run costs of debt reduction. A rule with a super-majority override has no effect on citizen welfare or fiscal
policy.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25935/1/MPRA_paper_25935.pdf
Marina, Azzimonti and Marco, Battaglini and Stephen, Coate (2010): On the Case for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26473
2019-10-03T09:51:12Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D48:4836:483630
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26473/
Empirical Investigation of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the UK
Kamal, Mona
E62 - Fiscal Policy
H60 - General
E60 - General
This article examines fiscal policy shocks in the UK through using a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model which applies Mountford and Uhlig (2009) type sign-restriction. It investigates the impact of three fiscal policy experiments on macroeconomic variable. Specifically, the Deficit-Financed Spending Increase (DFSI), the Deficit-Financed Tax Cut (DFTC), and the Balanced-Budget Spending Increase (BBSI). The results show that, the policy conclusion differs according to the period under investigation.
2010-04-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26473/1/MPRA_paper_26473.pdf
Kamal, Mona (2010): Empirical Investigation of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the UK. Published in: The Empirical Economics Letters , Vol. Volume, No. Number 4
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26668
2019-09-29T22:05:48Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D48:4835:483530
7375626A656374733D48:4836:483630
7375626A656374733D4E:4E34:4E3434
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26668/
Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality
Magazzino, Cosimo
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
H50 - General
H60 - General
N44 - Europe: 1913-
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
E60 - General
The relationship between public expenditure and aggregate income has long been debated in economic literature. According to Wagner, expenditure is an endogenous factor or an outcome. On the other hand, Keynes considered public expenditure as an exogenous factor to be used as a policy instrument to in-fluence growth. “Augmented” version of Wagner’s Law, where public deficit appears as further explanatory variable, is also investigated. The aim of this paper is to assess empirical evidence of these hypotheses in EU-27, for the period 1970-2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is offered, before evaluating some specifications of “Wagner’s Law” due to several researchers. Few notes on the empirical evidence’ comparisons conclude the paper.
2010-10-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26668/1/MPRA_paper_26668.pdf
Magazzino, Cosimo (2010): Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality. Published in: C.R.E.I. Working Papers No. 05 (October 2010)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26670
2019-09-26T13:18:47Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F32:4F3231
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26670/
التحقق من أثر التنسيق بين السياستين المالية والنقدية على الأهداف الاقتصادية باستخدام نموذج قياسي
Kamal, Mona
O21 - Planning Models ; Planning Policy
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
E60 - General
The objective of this study is to estimate an empirical model using pooled data for five industrialized countries to assess the impact of the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies on macroeconomic targets. Those countries are characterized with the existence of the institutional coordinating arrangements required for the success of the coordination between the two policies and the long history of implementing the stabilization policies.
2010-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26670/1/MPRA_paper_26670.pdf
Kamal, Mona (2010): التحقق من أثر التنسيق بين السياستين المالية والنقدية على الأهداف الاقتصادية باستخدام نموذج قياسي.
ar
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26702
2019-09-26T16:52:40Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26702/
Role of Central Bank in Islamic Finance
Shaikh, Salman
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E60 - General
The rapid growth in Islamic finance industry urges us to not only look for alternatives in the Islamic commercial banking, but also focus on the regulator and its role and functions to enable it to work in conformity with Islamic principles. This study reviews limited, but precious academic literature on central banking and monetary management in an environment where Islamic finance is in vogue. Refinance ratio and Qard-e-Hasan ratio and Mudarabah between central bank and Islamic commercial banks are in line with Islamic principles and helps meet liquidity requirements in the banking sector. Mudarabah can be done with profit sharing ratio benchmarked on economy’s nominal income growth. We have presented the evidence on statistical equivalence of nominal Interest rates (being used in conventional banking) and Nominal GDP growth rate (we are recommending to use). The nominal GDP growth linked rate of remuneration can be used to benchmark for external loan arrangements including those from IMF, WB and IDA etc. We suggest central banks particularly in Muslim countries to use nominal income targeting as a rule for the conduct of monetary policy.
2009-11-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26702/1/MPRA_paper_26702.pdf
Shaikh, Salman (2009): Role of Central Bank in Islamic Finance. Published in: Journal of Independent Studies & Research , Vol. 1, No. 2 (1 June 2010)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26832
2019-10-01T05:26:56Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3437
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433131
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26832/
The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach
Spiliopoulos, Leonidas
F00 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence
C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General
E60 - General
Bayesian model averaging is applied to robustly ascertain the determinants of various output volatility measures, including the downside semideviation of growth rates. Financial sophis- tication variables are found to have qualitatively different effects on volatility. The ratio of govern- ment expenditure to GDP exhibited a significant positive relationship with volatility and the trade share of GDP was positively related for a balanced dataset of developed and developing countries between 1960-89, and negatively related for developing countries between 1974-89. Other significant determinants were the black market premium, civil liberties, political rights, rule of law, and ratios of short-term debt and taxation to GDP.
2010-11-18
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26832/1/MPRA_paper_26832.pdf
Spiliopoulos, Leonidas (2010): The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:27040
2019-10-14T16:21:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3130
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443032
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443630
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27040/
The market for development
Plammoottil, George
Saraogi, Ravi
O10 - General
D02 - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
A10 - General
D60 - General
E60 - General
Markets need some very strong prerequisites to function well and be a self regulating system. Creating markets, where the most basic institutional factors necessary for the functioning of a market is nonexistent, is futile. In other words, talking about private sector development where markets do not even exist is meaningless. Our proposal is based on the idea that we first need to create a platform which can act like a spring board for private sector development. Such a platform is provided by the creation of a Market for Development (MFD). The MFD takes a ramshackle economy by its collar and purges it of all its rigidities, thus providing the scaffolding on the strength of which an all pervasive process of private sector development can take place. The creation of a MFD is thus an integral step for private sector development through which we hope to infuse the process of transforming lives. The process of private sector development can be broken down into two stages, the ‘formative stage’ and the ‘self perpetuating’ stage. Nearly all research into private sector development concentrates on the second stage in which the preconditions for the proper functioning of a market are already assumed to have taken place and research tells us what innovations are necessary for the successful functioning of those markets. However, a valid point can be raised here. Are the preconditions that are required for a market to function so easy to come by? We do not think so. The difficult part in the process of sustainable development is setting up the preconditions for proper functioning of a market. This is more fundamental than the second stage and our idea particularly addresses this issue.
2007-09-28
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27040/1/MPRA_paper_27040.pdf
Plammoottil, George and Saraogi, Ravi (2007): The market for development.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:27764
2019-09-27T10:59:42Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27764/
تجربة الاتحاد النقدي الأوروبي في مجال التنسيق بين السياستين المالية والنقدية
Kamal, Mona
E0 - General
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
E60 - General
This study presents the experience of the European Monetary Union (EMU) countries as an example for external coordination of fiscal and monetary policies under a fixed exchange rate regime. The Euro area is considered as a unique example since the coordination of the policies is achieved through an independent European Central Bank and the fiscal authorities of the member countries. This study reviews the coordinating arrangements and the mechanism required for the effectiveness of policy coordination.
2010-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27764/1/MPRA_paper_27764.pdf
Kamal, Mona (2010): تجربة الاتحاد النقدي الأوروبي في مجال التنسيق بين السياستين المالية والنقدية.
ar
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:27873
2019-10-01T16:58:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D50:5031:503136
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413131
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27873/
The crisis and the raison d’être and prospect for the UK office for budget responsibility versus an economic supreme Court
Colignatus, Thomas
P16 - Political Economy
A11 - Role of Economics ; Role of Economists ; Market for Economists
E60 - General
Each democratic nation with the Montesquieu Trias Politica separation of powers of the Executive, Legislative and Judiciary branches of government is advised to create an Economic Supreme Court as a fourth branch. The new UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) falls short of that and will fail in scientific advice just like the US Council of Economic Advisors, the German Sachverständigenrat, the French Commissariat Général du Plan and the Dutch Centraal Planbureau. The OBR’s setup is likely to put the UK on a path of self-fulfilling forecasts of lower sustainable growth and higher unemployment than necessary. This paper is a small update of my 2005 book “Definition & Reality in the General Theory of Political Economy” (DRGTPE) with respect to the economic crisis since 2007. This paper also discusses aspects of the continued stagflation, the euro, investments and the environment.
2011-01-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27873/1/MPRA_paper_27873.pdf
Colignatus, Thomas (2011): The crisis and the raison d’être and prospect for the UK office for budget responsibility versus an economic supreme Court.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:28254
2019-09-27T15:19:30Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4C:4C39:4C3936
7375626A656374733D4C:4C39:4C3937
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28254/
TIC et croissance économique
Recuero Virto, Laura
Bacache, Maya
L96 - Telecommunications
L97 - Utilities: General
E60 - General
La contribution des technologies d'information et de communication à la croissance fait l'objet de nombreux commentaires établis à partir d'analyses dont les difficultés méthodologiques doivent être relevées. Ainsi, sont mis en exergue le retard de tel ou tel pays dans l'adoption de ces technologies qui freinerait la croissance et l'inadaptation des politiques publiques pour en soutenir la diffusion. S'il est avéré que les technologies d'information et de communication participent activement à la croissance des économies développées, les mécanismes de cette contribution restent encore obscurs, en dehors de l'effet direct qu'assure la très forte productivité du secteur productif des technologies d'information et de communication lui-même sur le reste de l'économie, tant par l'amélioration de la performance des produits que par la baisse continue de leurs prix.
2009
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28254/1/MPRA_paper_28254.pdf
Recuero Virto, Laura and Bacache, Maya (2009): TIC et croissance économique. Published in: Les Dilemmes de l'Economie Numérique, FYP Editions (2009)
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:28371
2019-09-26T16:36:20Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28371/
تحليل التغييرات : في توجهات السياسات الاقتصادية في العراق
Alrubaie, falah.K.Ali
E60 - General
Economic policy, especially fiscal policy are Gaining exceptional importance, in the Iraqi economy in the current circumstances , where are the Revenues of oil center of gravity in the movements of each of the budget, internal and external, and leave it from the shocks of external display negative or positive. After that increased government intervention in economic activity, and increased monetary effects of fiscal policy, which is reflected in particular on the general level of prices and money supply and credit volume and interest rates.
Reveal Reviewed scrutinizing economic policy in Iraq for the critical role of fiscal policies as a result of the misuse of oil revenues, and the consequent prevalence of the manifestations of backwardness, declining standards of production and productivity in various economic activities, and the accompanying dominance of the oil sector on the major contributors to the GDP, and falling the role of the commodity sectors, particularly the industrial sector, agriculture and the growing sectors, parasitic, and deepen the manifestations of the imbalances and distortions in the economic structure as well as distortions in the exchange rate of the dinar, and distortions in the tax system, distortion in prices, and distortions in the distribution of income and wealth that resulted from poor coordination between monetary policies and Finance
2010-03-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28371/1/MPRA_paper_28371.pdf
Alrubaie, falah.K.Ali (2010): تحليل التغييرات : في توجهات السياسات الاقتصادية في العراق.
ar
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:28988
2019-10-09T12:23:17Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433833
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28988/
Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Using UK Data
Kamal, Mona
C83 - Survey Methods ; Sampling Methods
C01 - Econometrics
E60 - General
This paper applies the Bayesian method to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model using quarterly data for the UK over the period from 1971:Q1 through 2009:Q2. The contribution of the paper is two-fold. First, we estimate a model characterised by nominal and real
frictions. This estimation allows us to recover the structural parameters of the economy and study the
transmission mechanism of a government spending shock. Second, we investigate how the inclusion of fiscal policy rules affect the propagation of shocks and the ability of the model to fit the data. We establish that this inclusion enable the model to fit the data more closely. In addition, it has an impact on the qualitative responses of macroeconomic variables to the government spending shock.
2011-02-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28988/1/MPRA_paper_28988.pdf
Kamal, Mona (2011): Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Using UK Data.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29239
2019-09-27T00:57:00Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433833
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29239/
Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Using UK Data
Kamal, Mona
C83 - Survey Methods ; Sampling Methods
C01 - Econometrics
E60 - General
This paper applies the Bayesian method to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model using quarterly data for the UK over the period from 1971:Q1 through 2009:Q2. The contribution of the paper is two-fold. First, we estimate a model characterised by nominal and real
frictions. This estimation allows us to recover the structural parameters of the economy and study the
transmission mechanism of a government spending shock. Second, we investigate how the inclusion of fiscal policy rules affect the propagation of shocks and the ability of the model to fit the data. We establish that this inclusion enable the model to fit the data more closely. In addition, it has an impact on the qualitative responses of macroeconomic variables to the government spending shock.
2011-02-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29239/2/MPRA_paper_29239.pdf
Kamal, Mona (2011): Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Using UK Data.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29286
2019-10-02T22:53:44Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29286/
Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth under External Predation
Liu, Tao-Xiong
Hu, An-Gang
Zhou, Bi-Hua
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
E60 - General
This paper develops a growth model of a country under a Hobbesian environment with international conflicts where national defense is the only way to prevent external predation. The long run growth path is determined by the equilibrium of a dynamic game with three players, the external predator, the government and the family. The equilibrium growth path has three phases, submissive equilibrium, tolerant equilibrium and full-protected equilibrium. Different defense strategies result in different growth prospects and sustainable growth will endogenously induce adjustment of defense strategies.
2011-01-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29286/1/MPRA_paper_29286.pdf
Liu, Tao-Xiong and Hu, An-Gang and Zhou, Bi-Hua (2011): Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth under External Predation.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29470
2019-09-27T00:59:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463031
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29470/
Küresel Finans Krizinin Türkiye'ye Etkileri
Kibritçioğlu, Aykut
E62 - Fiscal Policy
F30 - General
F01 - Global Outlook
E50 - General
E60 - General
Following the US financial crisis of 2006-2007, the global economy suffered from negative spillover effects of it since fall 2008. In this study, the effects of global financial crsis on Turkish economy (2008-2010) and the macroeconomic performance of the Turkish government (before and) during the crisis (2005-2010) are briefly discussed.
2010-09-24
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29470/1/MPRA_paper_29470.pdf
Kibritçioğlu, Aykut (2010): Küresel Finans Krizinin Türkiye'ye Etkileri.
tr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29648
2019-09-26T08:35:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433230
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453233
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433330
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29648/
Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries
Lyócsa, Štefan
Výrost, Tomáš
Baumöhl, Eduard
C20 - General
E23 - Production
C30 - General
E60 - General
The purpose of this paper is to explain both the need and the procedures of unit-root testing to a wider audience. The topic of stationarity testing in general and unit root testing in particular is one that covers a vast amount of research. We have been discussing the problem in four different settings. First we investigate the nature of the problem that motivated the study of unit-root processes. Second we present a short list of several traditional as well as more recent univariate and panel data tests. Third we give a brief overview of the economic theories, in which the testing of the underlying research hypothesis can be expressed in a form of a unit-root / stationary test like the issues of purchasing power parity, economic bubbles, industry dynamic, economic convergence and unemployment hysteresis can be formulated in a form equivalent to the testing of a unit root within a particular series. The last, fourth aspect is dedicated to an empirical application of testing for the non-stationarity in industrial production of CEE-4 countries using a simulation based unit-root testing methodology.
2011-03-16
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29648/1/MPRA_paper_29648.pdf
Lyócsa, Štefan and Výrost, Tomáš and Baumöhl, Eduard (2011): Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29671
2019-09-30T23:36:57Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D41:4132:413230
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453031
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433637
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3430
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29671/
National accounts: barometer, telescope and compass for the national economy
Bos, Frits
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
A20 - General
E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts
C67 - Input-Output Models
O40 - General
E60 - General
This note briefly describes the merits and limitations of the national accounts, e.g. GDP per capita is a simple measure of material welfare, but not a comprehensive measure of welfare.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29671/1/MPRA_paper_29671.pdf
Bos, Frits (2011): National accounts: barometer, telescope and compass for the national economy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29769
2019-10-02T04:45:54Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423534
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29769/
Employer of Last Resort Policy and Feminist Economics: Social Provisioning and Socialization of Investment
Zdravka, Todorova
B50 - General
B54 - Feminist Economics
E60 - General
The paper discusses the Employment of Last Resort (ELR) policy proposal that has emerged from Post Keynesian theory as an embodiment of what Keynes called “socialization of investment,” as well as an avenue for a social provisioning approach towards socialization of unpaid care labor. Intersections between Post Keynesian and feminist economics are delineated. The paper proposes avenues for input from feminist economics into formulation of an ELR policy, and raises questions about transformation of gender relations.
2009-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29769/1/MPRA_paper_29769.pdf
Zdravka, Todorova (2009): Employer of Last Resort Policy and Feminist Economics: Social Provisioning and Socialization of Investment.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29880
2019-09-28T23:27:00Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D50:5032:503230
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453236
7375626A656374733D50:5033:503331
7375626A656374733D4C:4C36:4C3630
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D4C:4C31:4C3136
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29880/
Problems in the structure of Romania’s economy
Albu, Lucian-Liviu
Georgescu, George
P20 - General
E26 - Informal Economy ; Underground Economy
P31 - Socialist Enterprises and Their Transitions
L60 - General
E60 - General
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
L16 - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change ; Industrial Price Indices
E20 - General
The study focused on the early stage of Romania’s transition to the market economy during 1990-1992, based on statistical data available at that time. Because of the inherited structural distortions, the persistence of strong forces of inertia and the incoherence of economic and monetary policies, the transition to the market economy has been delayed in the early 1990’. In the absence of an adequate outline for de-monopolization and privatization of the economy, the liberalization of prices did not lead to an efficient resources allocation; on the contrary, the structural imbalances between demand and supply have deepened. The fall in industrial output and its poor competitiveness, due to the dominant position of this sector, has pushed the whole economy into a severe recession. A more rigorous management of the reform program, based on realistic assessments of opportunities and resources, with the help of more investments, including by the increase in foreign investments, should foster structural adjustments towards improving industrial performances and implicitly smoothing the way to the market economy.
1994-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29880/1/MPRA_paper_29880.pdf
Albu, Lucian-Liviu and Georgescu, George (1994): Problems in the structure of Romania’s economy. Published in: (1995): pp. 285-336.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:30356
2019-09-26T13:04:35Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D48:4833:483330
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30356/
The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries
Davide, Furceri
Aleksandra, Zdzienicka
H30 - General
E60 - General
The aim of this paper is to assess the short term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1% of social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage point, which, given the share of social spending to GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to the one of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending in Health and Unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30356/1/MPRA_paper_30356.pdf
Davide, Furceri and Aleksandra, Zdzienicka (2011): The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:30953
2019-09-27T16:43:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30953/
How costly are debt crises?
Furceri, Davide
Zdzienicka, Aleksandra
G10 - General
E60 - General
The aim of this paper is to assess the short and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after 8 years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30953/1/MPRA_paper_30953.pdf
Furceri, Davide and Zdzienicka, Aleksandra (2011): How costly are debt crises?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:31223
2019-09-28T16:48:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D48:4836:483630
7375626A656374733D42:4232:423232
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31223/
Conduite et efficacité de la politique économique : les leçons de la crise
Landais, Bernard
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
H60 - General
B22 - Macroeconomics
E52 - Monetary Policy
E60 - General
This paper intend to keep some lessons from the recent crisis for the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. We develop six propositions about these policies : The monetary policy may be wrongly orientated before a crisis ; The non-orthodox monetary actions are effective but dangerous; The Central Bank must adopt an enlarged framework for her strategy ; Fiscal Policy has not been completely rehabilited by crisis events and its efficiency is dubious ; In Euro Zone, monetary policy has been a problem that fiscal policies are not able to solve ; In Euro Zone, public debts are a big problem that monetary molicy can solve.
2011-06-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31223/1/MPRA_paper_31223.pdf
Landais, Bernard (2011): Conduite et efficacité de la politique économique : les leçons de la crise.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:31276
2019-09-27T16:32:58Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D48:4831:483130
7375626A656374733D48:4837:483730
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31276/
Le scelte tributarie del federalismo fiscale. Implicazioni per le Regioni del Mezzogiorno
Pica, Federico
Villani, Salvatore
H10 - General
H70 - General
E60 - General
The term “federalism” does not have a clear meaning: it must be specifically defined in the context in which it will be applied it. Regarding the Italian case, this definition can be found in the Fiscal Federalism Delegation Act (FFDA), Law of 5th May 2009, No. 42 (FFDA), which specifies the rules contained in Article 119 of the Italian Constitution, Paragraphs 1-5. The rules in question are to be implemented through an extensive series of decrees. The main objective which is indicated and that, therefore, should be pursued, is stated in Para. 1 of Art. 119: it is necessary to ensure “local governments’ financial autonomy of revenues and expenditures”. To achieve this autonomy in practice and apply it to all Sub-Central Governments (SCGs), the financial system which will be implemented should ensure the availability of a resources level likely to “fully finance the public functions” attributed to these institutions (Art. 2, Para. 2, Let. e) of the FFDA). Furthermore, it is also necessary that the system applies “an appropriate degree of fiscal flexibility” to ensure that all institutions, including those in the lowest fiscal capacity, have a sufficient budget autonomy. In this paper, we want to demonstrate how a system based on additional taxes to personal income tax (that is called IRPEF in Italy), as it is foreseen by these decrees, and which is not corrected by monetary compensations for the fiscal effort, violates the fiscal flexibility principle, and also jeopardizes the financial sustainability of the reform, thereby increasing the gaps between the different macro-areas and the overall deterioration of macroeconomic management capacity.
2010-10-16
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31276/1/MPRA_paper_31276.pdf
Pica, Federico and Villani, Salvatore (2010): Le scelte tributarie del federalismo fiscale. Implicazioni per le Regioni del Mezzogiorno. Published in: Rivista economica del Mezzogiorno , Vol. Anno X, No. 4 (December 2010): pp. 839-861.
it
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:31384
2019-09-27T12:54:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D42:4231
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423135
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453634
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423133
7375626A656374733D42:4232
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31384/
The power to tax: a lecture of Hayek
Estrada, Fernando
E62 - Fiscal Policy
B1 - History of Economic Thought through 1925
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
E60 - General
B15 - Historical ; Institutional ; Evolutionary
E64 - Incomes Policy ; Price Policy
B13 - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Stockholm School)
B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925
This article describes the argumentative structure of Hayek on the relationship between power to tax and redistribution. It is observed throughout its work giving special attention to two works: The Constitution of Liberty (1959) and Law, Legislation and Liberty, vol3; The Political Order of Free People, 1979) Hayek describes one of the arguments most complete information bout SFP progressive tax systems (progressive tax). According to the author the history of the tax progressive system, works against such a tax model and deploys a variety of arguments in his favorite spot by critics: liberal democracy.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31384/1/MPRA_paper_31384.pdf
Estrada, Fernando (2010): The power to tax: a lecture of Hayek.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:31562
2019-09-26T11:44:58Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D52:5232:523230
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31562/
Comparing two financial crises: the case of Hong Kong real estate markets
LEUNG, K. Y. Charles
TANG, C. H. Edward
E50 - General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
R20 - General
G01 - Financial Crises
E60 - General
Hong Kong is no stranger to bubbles or crisis. During the Asian Financial Crisis(AFC), the Hong Kong housing price index drops more than 50% in less than a year. The same market then experiences the Internet Bubble, the SARS attack, and recently the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper attempts to provide some “stylized facts” of the real estate markets and the macroeconomy, and follow the event-study methodology to examine whether the markets behave differently in the AFC and GFC, and discuss the possible linkage to the change in government policies (“learning effect”) and the flow of Chinese consumers and investors to Hong Kong (“China factor”).
2011-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31562/1/MPRA_paper_31562.pdf
LEUNG, K. Y. Charles and TANG, C. H. Edward (2011): Comparing two financial crises: the case of Hong Kong real estate markets.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32235
2019-10-01T07:11:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453631
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32235/
A new governance for the EMU and the economic policy framework
Schilirò, Daniele
F15 - Economic Integration
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
O52 - Europe
E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination
E60 - General
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
The severe crisis that affected the European Monetary
Union has emphasized the prevailing interests of national
governments and a lack of political leadership of the European institution , while the governance of the euro area has been incapable of an effective crisis management.
The present work argues that the decisions taken in March
2011 by the European Council, named the ‘Pact for the Euro’,
to design a new governance of the EMU, can be considered a
fairly significant step for the European institutions in terms of credibility and legitimacy. This contribution, evaluating the economic policy framework set by the Pact for the Euro, underlines the need for appropriate institutions and a stronger attitude to cooperate among the Member States. It also stresses the need for transparency and a non ambiguous solution of the debt crisis. The major message of this work is that Economic and Monetary Union must equip itself with appropriate policy tools to manage and resolve the crisis, creating the condition to improve the competitiveness of the peripheral countries of the
euro area and fostering growth. But, at the same time, Member States of the euro area and European institutions must demonstrate greater accountability and political coherence.
2011-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32235/1/MPRA_paper_32235.pdf
Schilirò, Daniele (2011): A new governance for the EMU and the economic policy framework.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32348
2019-09-26T23:35:28Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32348/
Beginning, crises, and end of the money economy
Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E40 - General
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
E10 - General
E60 - General
A crisis is but a crisis when the long run outlook is definitively positive.
Then a lower turning point must exist. This implicates a vision or, in the
ideal case, a formalized theory of the money economy’s possible end states.
This theory has to provide an endogenous explanation of end states and
crises. The equilibrium approach excludes endogenous causes in principle.
Thus disturbances can only be explained by exogenous random shocks. The
structural axiomatic approach, that is applied in the following, consistently
defines the potential systemic crisis point and the conditions of an economic
happy end.
2011-05-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32348/1/MPRA_paper_32348.pdf
Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont (2011): Beginning, crises, and end of the money economy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32480
2019-09-26T18:17:28Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453032
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32480/
Institutions, macroeconomic policy and foreign direct investment: South Asian countries case
Azam, Muhammad
Khan, Hashim
Hunjra, Ahmed Imran
Ahmad, H. Mushtaq
Chani, Muhammad Irfan
E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E60 - General
Recent economic literature suggests that institutional quality factors exerted positive effect on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The main focus of this study is to examine the role of institutional factors and macro economic policy factors on FDI inflows in a panel data of seven South Asian countries over the period of 12 years since 1996-2007. This study implies that a good institutional quality plays a key role in attractiveness of FDI inflows. A poor macroeconomic policy situation produces negative impact on FDI. Good Institutional quality and macroeconomic policy generate negative in a combined form on FDI. This study further implies that poor economic policy deteriorates institutional quality and creates negative effect on FDI inflows. Incredibility in trade liberalization policy may be a part of poor macro economic policy.
2011-01-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32480/1/MPRA_paper_32480.pdf
Azam, Muhammad and Khan, Hashim and Hunjra, Ahmed Imran and Ahmad, H. Mushtaq and Chani, Muhammad Irfan (2011): Institutions, macroeconomic policy and foreign direct investment: South Asian countries case.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32503
2019-09-26T10:23:46Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4A:4A36:4A3634
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32503/
Efficiency in a search and matching model with right-to-manage bargaining
Sunakawa, Takeki
J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
E60 - General
In a search and matching model with right-to-manage bargaining, matched workers and firms bargain over wages, given labor demand schedule of firms for hours worked per worker. Wages and hours worked per worker are determined as if they are determined in a competitive labor market with a distortion to wage markups. A positive inefficiency gap in the labor market diminishes workers' effective bargaining power relative to firms, because firms can adjust labor input and wage schedule via intensive margin. The Hosios condition does not necessarily hold even when workers' actual bargaining power is equal to unemployment elasticity of matches.
2011-07-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32503/1/MPRA_paper_32503.pdf
Sunakawa, Takeki (2011): Efficiency in a search and matching model with right-to-manage bargaining.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32674
2019-09-27T12:14:24Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D48:4836:483630
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D48:4836
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32674/
The great austerity war: what caused the deficit crisis and who should pay to fix it?
Crotty, James
E62 - Fiscal Policy
H60 - General
E60 - General
H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
Rapidly rising deficits at both the federal and state and local government levels, along with long-term financing problems in the Social Security and Medicare programs, have triggered a one-sided austerity-focused class war in the US. Similar class conflicts have broken out around the globe. A coalition of the richest and most economically powerful segments of society and conservative politicians who represent their interests has demanded that deficits be eliminated by public-sector austerity - severe cuts at all levels of government in spending that either supports the poor and the middle class or funds crucial public investment. These demands constitute a deliberate attempt to destroy the New Deal project, begun in the 1930s, whose goal was to subject capitalism to democratic control. The right-wing coalition seeks to replace that project with a modernized version of the 'free-market' capitalism of the 1920s. In this paper I argue that our deficit crisis is the result of a shift from the New-Deal-based economic model of the early post-war period to today's neoliberal, free-market model, a shift initiated under Ronald Reagan and continued under the presidents who succeeded him. The new model has generated slow growth, rising inequality and rising deficits. Rising deficits in turn created demands for austerity. After tracing the long-term evolution of our current deficit crisis, I show that this crisis can be resolved by raising taxes on upper-income households and large corporations, cutting war spending, and adopting a Canadian or European style health care system. There is no need to accept austerity. Calls for austerity should be seen as what they are - an attack by the rich and powerful against the basic interests of the American people.
2011-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32674/1/MPRA_paper_32674.pdf
Crotty, James (2011): The great austerity war: what caused the deficit crisis and who should pay to fix it?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:33203
2019-09-28T04:30:50Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D4F:4F32:4F3233
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453634
7375626A656374733D42:4231
7375626A656374733D45:4532
7375626A656374733D42:4232
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33203/
The power to tax
Estrada, Fernando
E62 - Fiscal Policy
O23 - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
E64 - Incomes Policy ; Price Policy
B1 - History of Economic Thought through 1925
E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
E60 - General
This article describes the argumentative structure of Hayek on the relationship between power to tax and redistribution. It is observed throughout its work giving special attention to two works: The Constitution of Liberty (1959) and Law, Legislation and Liberty, vol3; The Political
Order of Free People, 1979) Hayek describes one of the arguments most complete information bout SFP progressive tax systems (progressive tax). According to the author the history of the tax progressive system, works against such a tax model and deploys a variety of arguments in his favorite spot by critics: liberal democracy.
2011-09-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33203/1/MPRA_paper_33203.pdf
Estrada, Fernando (2011): The power to tax. Published in: Journal Economic Research Guardian , Vol. I, No. 1 (6 September 2011): pp. 1-14.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:33360
2019-09-28T21:39:43Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33360/
Beginning, crises, and end of the money economy
Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E40 - General
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
E10 - General
E60 - General
A crisis is but a crisis when the long run outlook is definitively positive. Then a lower turning point must exist. This implicates a vision or, in the ideal case, a formalized theory of the money economy’s possible end states. This theory has to provide an endogenous explanation of end states and crises. The equilibrium approach excludes endogenous causes in principle.
Thus disturbances can only be explained by exogenous random shocks. The structural axiomatic approach, that is applied in the following, consistently defines the potential systemic crisis point and the conditions of an economic
happy end.
2011-05-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33360/1/MPRA_paper_33360.pdf
Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont (2011): Beginning, crises, and end of the money economy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:33361
2019-09-27T05:41:27Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33361/
Beginning, crises, and end of the money economy
Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E40 - General
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
E10 - General
E60 - General
A crisis is but a crisis when the long run outlook is definitively positive. Then a lower turning point must exist. This implicates a vision or, in the ideal case, a formalized theory of the money economy’s possible end states. This theory has to provide an endogenous explanation of end states and crises. The equilibrium approach excludes endogenous causes in principle.
Thus disturbances can only be explained by exogenous random shocks. The structural axiomatic approach, that is applied in the following, consistently defines the potential systemic crisis point and the conditions of an economic
happy end.
2011-05-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33361/1/MPRA_paper_33361.pdf
Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont (2011): Beginning, crises, and end of the money economy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:33528
2019-09-27T19:32:26Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D48:4836:483633
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33528/
Avro Bölgesi Ülkelerindeki Güncel Borç Krizi
Kibritçioğlu, Aykut
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt
E60 - General
The sovereign debt crisis that deepened within the last three years in particular Eurozone countries makes up one of the major components of the current global economic crisis (2006-2011) which were briefly described in Kibritçioğlu (2011). In this follow-up study, the historical and political origins of the debt crisis in EU countries, such as Ireland, Greece and Portugal, are analyzed with particular reference to the academic discussions during the final forming process of the European Monetary Union and the introduction of the euro as a single currency in the late 1990s. Finally, the study also focuses on EU's (possible/remaining) policy options to solve the ongoing debt crisis.
2011-08-16
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33528/1/MPRA_paper_33528.pdf
Kibritçioğlu, Aykut (2011): Avro Bölgesi Ülkelerindeki Güncel Borç Krizi. Published in: İktisat ve Toplum Dergisi No. 10 (25 August 2011): pp. 30-41.
tr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34203
2019-09-26T20:31:12Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D48:4833:483330
7375626A656374733D49:4930:493030
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34203/
Social security and the rise in health spending: a macroeconomic analysis
Zhao, Kai
H30 - General
I00 - General
E20 - General
E60 - General
In this paper, I develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with endogenous health and endogenous longevity and use it to study the impact of Social Security on aggregate health
spending. I find that Social Security increases the aggregate health spending of the economy via two channels. First, Social Security transfers resources from the young with low marginal propensity to spend on health care to the elderly (age 65+) with high marginal propensity to spend on health care. Second, Social Security raises people's expected future utility and thus increases the marginal benefit from investing in health to live longer. In the calibrated version of the model, I show that the positive impact of Social Security on aggregate health spending
is quantitatively important. The expansion of US Social Security since 1950 can account for approximately 43% of the dramatic rise in US health spending as a share of GDP over the same period (i.e. from 4% of GDP in 1950 to 13% of GDP in 2000). I also find that this positive impact of Social Security has two interesting policy implications. First, the negative effect of Social Security on capital accumulation in this model is significantly smaller than what previous studies have found, because Social Security induces extra years of life via health spending and
thus encourages private savings for retirement. Second, Social Security has a significant spill-over effect on public health insurance programs (e.g. Medicare). As Social Security increases health spending and longevity, it also increases the insurance payments from these programs,
thus raising their financial burden.
2011-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34203/1/MPRA_paper_34203.pdf
Zhao, Kai (2011): Social security and the rise in health spending: a macroeconomic analysis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34507
2019-09-26T13:52:18Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D52:5232:523233
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34507/
Medición y características del mercado laboral del Municipio de Rionegro, Antioquia
Mesa Callejas, Ramon Javier
Lopez Gonzalez, Mauricio
Gonzalez Henao, Jenifer
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
E60 - General
R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics
The paper presents an approach to labor market structure in the municipality of Rionegro, Antioquia from the construction of indicators. The analysis was conducted from the supply side, taking information from the municipality's population that was part or not in the labor force and accounts for the measurement of variables such as unemployment, the overall rate of participation, the employment rate, the underemployment rate, among others.
The knowledge and use of this information is translated into multiple benefits for local government and the community at large, including the accuracy of policies to provide better working conditions for the municipality and the criteria to better focus and efficiency of municipal spending.
The book is divided into three chapters: the first. briefly discusses the major national labor market indicators, between 2001 and 2008. In the second section shows the results of research conducted for the municipality of Rionegro, Antioquia, detailing the methodology, the general characteristics of the population, and profiles of the employed and unemployed. Finally, draws some labor market characteristics muncipio, starting with their living conditions, according to the state of informal employment and ending with the phenomenon of migration
2009-11-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34507/1/MPRA_paper_34507.pdf
Mesa Callejas, Ramon Javier and Lopez Gonzalez, Mauricio and Gonzalez Henao, Jenifer (2009): Medición y características del mercado laboral del Municipio de Rionegro, Antioquia. Published in: (1 November 2009): pp. 1-136.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34821
2019-09-26T11:39:09Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D50:5035:503531
7375626A656374733D50:5031:503136
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34821/
Political dispensation and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria (1970-2009)
SAIBU, Olufemi Muibi
FAKANBI, KEHINDE Ernest
AGBOOLA, Olawode Wasiu
P51 - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems
P16 - Political Economy
E60 - General
This study examines the extent to which Nigeria has benefited from its democratic experience since independence. Using simple descriptive statistics and data series from 1970 to 2009, the study showed that the trend in macroeconomic performance has not significantly improved. Indeed, the period of democratic regimes seemed more volatile than the other period of non-democratic regimes. The policy inferences from this analysis are that there is more to socioeconomic development than the form of government. Unless those development-enhancing factors are addressed, democracy may not lead to improved socioeconomic development in Nigeria.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34821/1/MPRA_paper_34821.pdf
SAIBU, Olufemi Muibi and FAKANBI, KEHINDE Ernest and AGBOOLA, Olawode Wasiu (2011): Political dispensation and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria (1970-2009).
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34842
2019-09-30T17:17:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453032
7375626A656374733D42:4230:423030
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423430
7375626A656374733D48:4834:483430
7375626A656374733D50:5034:503431
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433134
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433830
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423431
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34842/
Supramacroeconomics: the newest management technology
Kozhurin, Fedir
E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
B00 - General
A10 - General
E60 - General
C13 - Estimation: General
B40 - General
H40 - General
P41 - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C02 - Mathematical Methods
C80 - General
B41 - Economic Methodology
C01 - Econometrics
A new management technology, based on modern developments in macroeconomics, was offered. It is aimed at the highest issues of state and society governing as well as finding methods of their solving.
The grounding of necessity of separate supramacroeconomical level of management establishment was made; the methods and tools on its realization were developed. Examples of their implementation in Ukraine are still being interpreted.
2011-11-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34842/1/MPRA_paper_34842.pdf
Kozhurin, Fedir (2011): Supramacroeconomics: the newest management technology.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34971
2019-10-01T08:01:52Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D4F:4F32:4F3233
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453634
7375626A656374733D42:4233
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423133
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D42:4232
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34971/
The progressive tax
Estrada, Fernando
E62 - Fiscal Policy
O23 - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
E64 - Incomes Policy ; Price Policy
B3 - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
B13 - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Stockholm School)
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925
E60 - General
This article describes the argumentative structure of Hayek on the relationship between power to tax and the progressive tax. It is observed throughout its work giving special attention to two works: The Constitution of Liberty (1959) and Law, Legislation and Liberty, vol3; The Political Order of Free People, 1979) Hayek describes one of the arguments most complete information bout SFP progressive tax systems (progressive tax). According to the author the history of the tax progressive system, works against such a tax model and deploys a variety of arguments in his favorite spot by critics: liberal democracy.
2010-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34971/1/MPRA_paper_34971.pdf
Estrada, Fernando (2010): The progressive tax.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:35290
2019-09-26T23:44:31Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35290/
Mezzogiorno e Italia. Produttività, accumulazione e divario territoriale.
Travaglini, Giuseppe
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
E00 - General
E60 - General
In this paper we shed lights on the economic growth of Mezzogiorno of Italy during the last twenty years. The empirical analyses refer to various aspects of the Mezzogiorno economy: income per capita, labor productivity, public and private accumulation and competitiveness. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a key to explain the actual weackness of Mezzogiorno. More precisely, we argue that the effectiveness of regional policies has been affected by national legal rules that have had different effects across regions. In addition, the effectiveness of regional policies has been diminished by attributing importance to regional governments as control centres of public intervention.
2010-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35290/1/MPRA_paper_35290.pdf
Travaglini, Giuseppe (2010): Mezzogiorno e Italia. Produttività, accumulazione e divario territoriale. Published in: Mezzogiorno una questione nazionale, a cura di G. Altieri e E. Galossi, ed. Ediesse, Roma (April 2010): pp. 39-96.
it
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:35391
2019-09-26T22:50:09Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3437
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D42:4231
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D4F:4F32:4F3230
7375626A656374733D42:4232
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35391/
Three centuries of macro-economic statistics
Bos, Frits
O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
B1 - History of Economic Thought through 1925
E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts
E60 - General
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O20 - General
B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925
B41 - Economic Methodology
This paper describes the history of the national accounts starting from the incidental estimates by Petty, King and Davenant in the seventeenth century. The period 1930-1950 was a revolution in terms of the roles and uses of the national accounts, e.g. the discovery of input-output analysis, purchasing power parities and macro-econometric modelling and the Keynesian revolution in economic thinking. Most of these new uses also reinforced each other. These uses were also closely linked to the economic circumstances: the economic crisis of the thirties, the Second World War and the need for recovery afterwards stimulated an active role of the government. In 1947, for the first time a report on national accounting concepts was published by the UN. Some years later, the first official guidelines were published. Since then, national accounting theory and practice have increasingly been dominated by these guidelines. The period since the Second World War can thus best be labelled as 'the era of the international guidelines'. Many innovations in national accounting have been made since the Second World War. After gaining wider acceptance and maturity, a great deal of them has been included in the guidelines and some others have not. Since the Second World War, the national accounts statistics published by countries all over the world have changed drastically in scope, concepts, frequency and detail. These developments in national accounts practice do not have a straightforward relationship to the international guidelines. Due to the European Unification, the supply of national accounts in Europe has been improved dramatically.
2011-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35391/1/MPRA_paper_35391.pdf
Bos, Frits (2011): Three centuries of macro-economic statistics.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36512
2019-10-25T06:12:49Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36653
2019-10-01T16:08:22Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473030
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453437
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453636
7375626A656374733D44:4438:443834
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453137
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3430
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
7375626A656374733D44:4430:443033
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D44:4438:443833
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433831
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
7375626A656374733D59:5934:593430
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453031
7375626A656374733D44:4435:443533
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473134
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433433
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433633
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473132
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D44:4431:443132
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36653/
Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C.
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
G00 - General
E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E66 - General Outlook and Conditions
D84 - Expectations ; Speculations
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O40 - General
G01 - Financial Crises
D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
C13 - Estimation: General
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief ; Unawareness
C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data ; Data Access
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C01 - Econometrics
Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified)
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts
D53 - Financial Markets
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C02 - Mathematical Methods
G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading
C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling
E60 - General
G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
G10 - General
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16 sentiment surveys of distinct respondent universes and employ the technique of principal components analysis to extract the common signals from the surveys. I show that the ability of different population groups to anticipate correctly economic growth and excess stock returns is not identical, implying that not all sentiment is the same, although there exist some common components. I demonstrate that sentiment surveys have significant predictive power for both GDP growth and excess stock returns, and that the results are robust to the inclusion of information pertaining to the macroeconomic environment and momentum. Furthermore, the findings reject the conventional wisdom that the effect of sentiment is apparent exclusively in small-capitalization stocks.
2008-10-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36653/1/MPRA_paper_36653.pdf
Guzman, Giselle C. (2008): Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns. Published in: The Making of National Economic Forecasts No. Edward Elgar Publishing LTD (2009): pp. 319-351.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37658
2019-09-26T11:56:16Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D59:5934:593430
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3533
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37658/
Macroeconomic instability in Afghanistan: causes and solutions
Joya, Omar
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified)
O53 - Asia including Middle East
E60 - General
This dissertation contributes to an increasing literature on macroeconomic instability in developing countries. It makes a critical review of the literature and classifies the sources of instability under exogenous and endogenous factors. It then argues that the impact of exogenous shocks is determined by the structural characteristics of the economy which act as a risk-management mechanism. The paper also explains that macroeconomic instability is both a cause and a reflection of underdevelopment. Whilst macroeconomic instability constraints the long-term growth and thus development, it is also the result of the co-existence of various ‘underdeveloped structures’ in the economy. The paper also presents a case study on Afghanistan. Through a diagnostic approach, it identifies the sources of instability in the country and proposes a series of policies and reforms in order to overcome macroeconomic instability in Afghanistan.
2011-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37658/1/MPRA_paper_37658.pdf
Joya, Omar (2011): Macroeconomic instability in Afghanistan: causes and solutions.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37771
2019-09-27T15:43:06Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3130
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3430
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413130
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423135
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433032
7375626A656374733D5A:5A30
7375626A656374733D42:4231:423136
7375626A656374733D4B:4B31:4B3139
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423539
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37771/
On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave
Albers, Scott
Albers, Andrew L.
N10 - General, International, or Comparative
O40 - General
A10 - General
E60 - General
B15 - Historical ; Institutional ; Evolutionary
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C02 - Mathematical Methods
Z0 - General
B16 - Quantitative and Mathematical
K19 - Other
B59 - Other
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
B41 - Economic Methodology
In Part One of this paper we use the harmonic analogy of a musical octave to analyze mathematic ratios of U.S. real GNP. These ratios are generated by bringing together figures for U.S. real GNP over intervals of time – “spreads of years” – as numerator and denominator in a single fraction.
Using a range of 7-year to 18-year “spreads,” we find that this approach provides strong evidence that American economic history is composed of four 14-year quarter-cycles within a 56 year circuit in the real GNP of the United States, 1869-2007. These periods correlate closely with analysis by Nickolai Kondratiev and provide a framework for predicting an annual steady state rate of growth for the United States falling between 3.4969% and 3.4995% per year.
In Part Two of this paper we provide three postscripts including:
(1) correlations / speculations on the political and social consequences of this model,
(2) simplification / expansion of the geometries implied and
(3) analysis / prediction based upon this approach,
as concluded by a brief afterword.
These post-script refinements narrow the steady state rate of growth predicted to between 3.4969% and 3.4973% per year correlating closely with the 3.4971% rate for annualized quarterly data calculated for Okun’s Law, 1947-2007. The size and interconnectedness of world economies, and the virtually exact correlations provided herein, suggest that the dates predicted for future crises will see changes which are unexpectedly global, dramatic and fierce.
2012-03-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37771/1/MPRA_paper_37771.pdf
Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. (2012): On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38100
2019-09-27T14:09:21Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433531
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3533
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433838
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453031
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D4C:4C39:4C3932
7375626A656374733D59:5931:593130
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463031
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433837
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
7375626A656374733D4E:4E37:4E3735
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433133
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463137
7375626A656374733D4C:4C39:4C3931
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D4D:4D32:4D3231
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433031
7375626A656374733D4C:4C37:4C3730
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38100/
The impact of the global economic crisis on non-oil operations of ports in Iran
Ahmadzadeh Mashinchi, Sina
C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
O53 - Asia including Middle East
C88 - Other Computer Software
E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
L92 - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
Y10 - Data: Tables and Charts
F01 - Global Outlook
C87 - Econometric Software
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
N75 - Asia including Middle East
G01 - Financial Crises
E60 - General
C13 - Estimation: General
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
L91 - Transportation: General
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
M21 - Business Economics
C01 - Econometrics
L70 - General
It is generally accepted that the recent economic crisis of 2007-2010 has caused widespread economic recession in different countries. Since the ports and coastal regions are of great importance to economic infrastructure, this study examined the possible impact resulting from such a global economic crisis on the ports in Iran. First, the annual number of berthing vessels of gross tonnage over a thousand tons as well as loading and unloading of non-oil cargoes and containers were extracted from statistical reports of Ports and Maritime Organization. Then an attempt was made to predict the amount of expected non-oil operation by the advanced quantitative statistical methods in Iran's ports. According to the results obtained from comparing predicted and actual statistics, these ports have been affected by the current economic crisis, but after one-year delay.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38100/1/MPRA_paper_38100.pdf
Ahmadzadeh Mashinchi, Sina (2010): The impact of the global economic crisis on non-oil operations of ports in Iran. Published in: Middle East Journal of Scientific Research (ISI Indexed) , Vol. 9, No. 5 (15 November 2011): pp. 596-601.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38206
2019-09-29T03:23:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38206/
Financial crisis - US versus Asian. Factors and policy response F
Gulam Hassan, Mohamed Aslam
B50 - General
E60 - General
G01 - Financial Crises
The financial crisis which erupted in the United States of America in 2007 drove the real economic sector into a crisis that has diminshed the world’s economic growth thereafter. There is no single theory that can explain what has happened in the US. Eventhough there were a few financial crises models, however all the models are “meaningless”. Traditional macroeconomic policies were used to restore the distress economy but the policies seemed to be ineffective. In this regards, heterodox economic perspectives may provide some answers in dealing with such economic crisis that have been experienced by the US. The financial crisis experienced in Asia in 1997-98 could provide some ideas for economic crisis solutions. The aim of this paper is (a) to discuss the financial crisis in the US and East Asia 1997/1998, and (b) to look at unorthodox economic policies that could possibly be considered in dealing with the financial crisis.
2012-01-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38206/1/MPRA_paper_38206.pdf
Gulam Hassan, Mohamed Aslam (2012): Financial crisis - US versus Asian. Factors and policy response F.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38482
2019-09-26T21:52:54Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433530
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38482/
Macroeconomic fluctuations,regime switching(structural breaks) and impulse responses:Nigerian evidence
Nwaobi, Godwin
F40 - General
C50 - General
E30 - General
E60 - General
E20 - General
While the global economic recovery continues, it remains uneven and subject to downside risks. Yet,to the extent that these linger, they could undermine growth further and foster larger macroeconomic imbalances.In fact,one unwanted characteristics that most Sub-saharan African economies share, is the prevalence and magnitude of output collapses. Unfortunately, research into output collapses remains largely unexplored and much of the focus of growth studies has been on cross-country analysis, ignoring the volatility of growth patherns. This paper therefore intends to show that the hypothesis of a common stochastic productivity trend have a set of econometric implications that allow us to test for its presence,measure its importance and extract estimates of its realized value. Distinctively, we propose to contribute to the current modelling literature by accomodating regime switching and structural break dynamics in a unified framework so as to provide a fuller understanding of the factors underlying the bulk of economic fluctuations in Nigeria.
2011-12-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38482/1/MPRA_paper_38482.pdf
Nwaobi, Godwin (2011): Macroeconomic fluctuations,regime switching(structural breaks) and impulse responses:Nigerian evidence.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38670
2019-10-05T16:43:01Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4334:433434
7375626A656374733D4A:4A30:4A3031
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3430
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38670/
A new unit labour cost changes decomposition Four pillars of cost competitiveness recovery
Peroni, Chiara
DiMaria, Charles Henri
C44 - Operations Research ; Statistical Decision Theory
J01 - Labor Economics: General
O40 - General
E60 - General
This article presents a new decomposition of unit labour costs into compensation per worker and labour productivity, which, in turn, is decomposed into efficiency gains, technical progress and capital deepening. Data for Western European countries and the US show that the evolution of labour productivity components counteracts the deterioration in countries' cost competitiveness caused by increases in nominal wages. The policy implication is that efforts aimed at reducing nominal labour costs should be accompanied by policies fostering capital deepening. Further improvements in countries' cost competitiveness can be achieved by enhancing efficiency gains and technical progress, which has been mostly negative during the period under study.
2012-04-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38670/1/MPRA_paper_38670.pdf
Peroni, Chiara and DiMaria, Charles Henri (2012): A new unit labour cost changes decomposition Four pillars of cost competitiveness recovery.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38747
2019-09-28T16:42:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3331
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38747/
The impact of financial sector on innovation activity: theoretical background and new evidence from russian banking sector
Veysov, Alexander
Stolbov, Mikhail
O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
E60 - General
This paper is to summarize the literature on finance-innovation link and produce evidence that
the development of banking sector in Russia is to foster innovation process. Financeinnovation
link is a new and scarcely covered issue. Nevertheless it is conventional wisdom
that stock market institutions are preferable for financing innovation. But researchers claim
that in the developing countries banking institution together with thorough government policy
can foster innovations. Also they claim that stock market institutions are more suitable for
financing breakthrough innovations, while banks are more suitable for incremental
innovations. The main contribution of this paper is that is was empirically shown using panel
data models that banks can facilitate innovation in Russia.
2011-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38747/1/MPRA_paper_38747.pdf
Veysov, Alexander and Stolbov, Mikhail (2011): The impact of financial sector on innovation activity: theoretical background and new evidence from russian banking sector.
en
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