2024-03-29T14:36:08Z
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/cgi/oai2
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:383
2019-09-28T15:04:17Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/383/
Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
Sula, Ozan
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
A characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.
2006-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/383/1/MPRA_paper_383.pdf
Sula, Ozan (2006): Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:384
2019-09-26T23:53:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/384/
Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
Sula, Ozan
Willett, Thomas D.
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Most of the emerging market currency crises are accompanied by sharp reversals or “sudden stops” of capital inflows. We investigated whether some types of capital flows are more likely to reverse than others during these crises. Foreign direct investment is usually considered stable while portfolio investment is frequently depicted as the least reliable type of flow. Recent statistical testing has yielded conflicting results on this issue. We argue that a major problem with recent studies is that the degree of variability of capital flows during normal or inflow periods may give little clue to their behavior during crises and it is the latter that is most important for policy. Using data for 35 emerging economies for 1990 through 2003, we confirm that direct investment is the most stable category, but find that private loans on average are as reversible as portfolio flows.
2006-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/384/1/MPRA_paper_384.pdf
Sula, Ozan and Willett, Thomas D. (2006): Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:429
2019-09-28T20:41:58Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D51:5134:513433
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/429/
International recycling of petrodollars
Ruiz, Juan
Vilarrubia, Josep
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
The continued rise in oil prices since 2002 has resulted in a significant increase in export revenue for oil exporting countries. This increase in the price of oil and other commodities means that OPEC countries and Russia have received, between 2003 and 2006, a windfall of 1.3 trillion dollars with respect to their export level in 2002. This paper analyzes, using the limited data available, the recycling of these resources back to the world economy through the trade channel, via higher imports, or the financial channel, via an increase in the net external asset position of these countries. Our results show that around 50% of the windfall revenue has been used to increase imports, while the rest has been directed towards international reserve accumulation and other improvements in the net asset position of these countries. Comparing the current oil price increase with previous ones, such as those resulting from the tightening of oil supply in the 70’s, we find that the trade channel has been more important in the current episode than in previous ones. This can be attributed to (i) the perception of a more permanent increase in the price of oil in the context of rising demand, and (ii) the gradualism of the current oil price increase, which has allowed a stronger response from imports.
2006-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/429/1/MPRA_paper_429.pdf
Ruiz, Juan and Vilarrubia, Josep (2006): International recycling of petrodollars. Published in: Banco de España, Documento Ocasional (Bank of Spain, Occasional Papers) No. 0605 (April 2006)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:433
2019-09-26T22:37:18Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D51:5134:513433
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/433/
Canales de reciclaje internacional de los petrodólares
Ruiz, Juan
Vilarrubia, Josep
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
The continued rise in oil prices since 2002 has resulted in a significant increase in export revenue for oil exporting countries. This increase in the price of oil and other commodities means that OPEC countries and Russia have received, between 2003 and 2006, a windfall of 1.3 trillion dollars with respect to their export level in 2002. This paper analyzes, using the limited data available, the recycling of these resources back to the world economy through the trade channel, via higher imports, or the financial channel, via an increase in the net external asset position of these countries. Our results show that around 50% of the windfall revenue has been used to increase imports, while the rest has been directed towards international reserve accumulation and other improvements in the net asset position of these countries. Comparing the current oil price increase with previous ones, such as those resulting from the tightening of oil supply in the 70’s, we find that the trade channel has been more important in the current episode than in previous ones. This can be attributed to (i) the perception of a more permanent increase in the price of oil in the context of rising demand, and (ii) the gradualism of the current oil price increase, which has allowed a stronger response from imports.
2006-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/433/1/MPRA_paper_433.pdf
Ruiz, Juan and Vilarrubia, Josep (2006): Canales de reciclaje internacional de los petrodólares. Published in: Banco de España, Documento Ocasional (Bank of Spain, Occasional Papers) No. 0605 (April 2006)
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:483
2019-09-28T21:31:04Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/483/
The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union
Aristovnik, Aleksander
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
The article investigates the main factors of current account deficits in order to assess the potential excessiveness
of current account deficits in selected countries of Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union. According to the
simulated benchmark calculated on the basis of selected determinants (in period 1992-2003), the results confirm
that the actual current account balances are generally close to their estimated levels in the 2000-2003 period in
the transition region. This notion is in line with the intertemporal approach to the current account balance,
suggesting that higher external deficits are a natural outcome when permanent domestic output exceeds the
current one and when current investments and government consumption exceed their permanent levels. Hence,
the results suggest that most countries in Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union are justified in running
relatively high current account deficits.
2006-06-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/483/1/MPRA_paper_483.pdf
Aristovnik, Aleksander (2006): The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union. Published in: Transformations in Business & Economics , Vol. 6, No. 11 (2007): pp. 32-52.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:485
2019-10-06T07:34:23Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/485/
How sustainable are current account deficits in selected transition economies?
Aristovnik, Aleksander
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
The article examines the issue of ‘current account sustainability’ in seventeen transition economies. For this purpose, two accounting frameworks (Milesi-Ferreti and Razin, 1996; Reisen, 1998) based on certain strict assumptions are employed. The results show that if the observed level of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is kept in the medium run almost all countries could optimally have a higher level of external deficit, with the exception of countries such as Baltic States, Hungary, Macedonia, Moldova and Romania. Accordingly, the maintenance of relatively large FDI inflows (especially greenfield investments) to national economies is a key priority in securing future external sustainability. In the end, the results indicate that current account deficits of transition economies that exceed 5 percent of GDP generally involve problems of their external sustainability.
2006-03-26
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/485/1/MPRA_paper_485.pdf
Aristovnik, Aleksander (2006): How sustainable are current account deficits in selected transition economies? Published in: Journal of Economics , Vol. 55, No. 1 (2007): pp. 19-39.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:562
2019-09-28T04:21:27Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473131
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/562/
International Equity Flows and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns
Hartmann, Daniel
Pierdzioch, Christian
G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
We examined the link between international equity flows and U.S. stock returns. Based on the results of tests of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of stock returns, we found evidence of a strong positive (negative) link between international equity flows and contemporaneous (one-month-ahead) stock returns. Our results also indicate that an investor, in real time, could have used information on the link between international equity flows and one-month-ahead stock returns to improve the performance of simple trading rules.
2006-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/562/1/MPRA_paper_562.pdf
Hartmann, Daniel and Pierdzioch, Christian (2006): International Equity Flows and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:855
2019-09-26T13:38:16Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/855/
International Intertemporal Solvency in OECD Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root
Kalyoncu, Huseyin
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
The purpose of this study is to investigate the sustainability of current account of 22 OECD countries by employing Liu and Tanner (1996) testing procedure. The procedure used here is to examine stationarity of current account. Using ADF unit root test on single time series, it is found that current account of most OECD countries have unit root. This outcome, however, might be due to the generally low power of this test. The aim of this paper is to reconsider this issue by exploiting the extra information provided by the combination of the time-series and cross-sectional data and the subsequent power advantages of panel data unit root tests. We apply the test advocated by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997). According to estimation results current account deficits in OECD countries are sustainable.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/855/1/MPRA_paper_855.pdf
Kalyoncu, Huseyin (2006): International Intertemporal Solvency in OECD Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root. Published in: Praque Economic Papers , Vol. 1, No. 15 (2006): pp. 44-49.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1322
2019-09-30T15:02:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3533
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453232
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1322/
Accounting for the Current Account Behavior in ASEAN-5
Lau, Evan
Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
Habibullah, Muzafar Shah
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
O53 - Asia including Middle East
E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity
Current account are an endogenous variable that contain information about the behavior of the economics agents and is important for economic policymaking as it gives a broad reflection of the stance of macroeconomics policies. The imbalances in current account are a reflection of the forward-looking, dynamic saving and investment decisions in the intertemporal approach to current account modeling. This study empirically analyzed the anatomy of the dynamic current account behavior for the ASEAN-5 countries using present value model. Despite the simplicity, the statistical computations suggest that the agents behave as the forward-looking rational agents in the face of the shocks in the three out of five economies. This implies that the current account acts as a buffer to smooth the consumption in the presence of shock and optimally smoothing its consumption path for these countries.
2007-01-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1322/1/MPRA_paper_1322.pdf
Lau, Evan and Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi and Habibullah, Muzafar Shah (2007): Accounting for the Current Account Behavior in ASEAN-5.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1802
2019-09-26T15:55:12Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1802/
Revisiting the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: An Institutional Sector View
Bebczuk, Ricardo
Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Working on a unbalanced sample of OECD countries spanning the period 1970-2003, this paper contributes to the empirical literature on the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle by making three main innovations: First, it goes beyond the traditional national-level investment-saving equations to estimate, for the first time, regressions at the institutional sector level (households, corporations, and government). Second, it explores the implications of giving separate consideration to current account deficits and surpluses. Lastly, it uses advanced panel data techniques to deal with endogeneity and to distinguish long- and short-run effects. After discarding the influence of common factors, the conclusions are that: (i) The national Feldstein-Horioka coefficient is in the vicinity of 0.5, but sectoral coefficients are much lower and even insignificantly different from zero; (ii) Such positive and significant national coefficient would not reflect frictions in international credit markets but just a fiscal current account targeting policy; (iii) Nevertheless, when the sample is split into deficit and surplus years, a higher and significant correlation emerges for the former at the national, household, and corporate level, implying that credit imperfections still play a role for the private but not for the public sector. Equally noteworthy, household correlation is still positive and significant, yet lower, for surplus years; and (iv) Against the background of a unitary long-run coefficient to satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint, the long-run relationship is 0.75 for national data, 0.6 for the corporate sector, and marginally or non-significant at the household and government level.
2006-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1802/1/MPRA_paper_1802.pdf
Bebczuk, Ricardo and Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus (2006): Revisiting the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: An Institutional Sector View.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1943
2019-09-27T19:43:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3537
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1943/
Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey
Demir, Firat
O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
The paper analyzes the relationship between financial liberalization and socio-political risk by identifying the inter-dependent nature of socio-political and economic fault lines in three developing countries. Unlike the previous research, the current article suggests that domestic socio-political factors cannot be isolated from the fluctuations taking place in the economic arena. In particular, we examine the effects of short-term capital inflows on the recipient countries by exploring the dynamic relationship between the volatility of such flows and socio-political instability. Accordingly, we endogenize the volatility of short term capital inflows with political risk variables where increasing volatility by disrupting market activities and private investment increases socio-political risk, which further feeds into the volatility of such flows. In the empirical analysis using both the Granger causality tests and a simultaneous-equation approach we uncover a contemporaneous relationship between the volatility of short-term capital inflows and socio-political instability. The results also challenge the previous research regarding their use of political variables as purely exogenous from economic variables. Likewise, the legitimacy of the arguments explaining investor cautiousness vis-à-vis political developments in the developing countries with purely domestic factors also becomes questionable.
2006-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1943/1/MPRA_paper_1943.pdf
Demir, Firat (2006): Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:1974
2019-09-28T14:29:21Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3533
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1974/
Short- and medium-term determinants of current account balances in Middle East and North Africa countries
Aristovnik, Aleksander
O53 - Asia including Middle East
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
The main aim of the paper is to examine the short- and medium-term empirical link between current account balances and a broad set of (economic) variables proposed by theoretical and empirical literature. The paper focuses on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), an economically diverse region, which has so far mainly been neglected in such empirical analyzes. For this purpose, a (dynamic) panel-regression technique is used to characterize the properties of current account variations across selected MENA economies in the 1971-2005 period. The results, which are generally consistent with theoretical and previous empirical analyses, indicate that higher (domestic and foreign) investment, government expenditure and foreign interest rates have a negative effect on the current account balance. On the other hand, a more open economy, higher oil prices and domestic economic growth generate an improvement in the external balance, whereas the latter implies that the domestic growth rate is associated with a larger increase in domestic savings than investment. Finally, the results show a relatively high persistency of current accounts and reject the validity of the stages of development hypothesis as poorer countries in the region reveal a higher current account surplus (or lower deficit).
2007-02-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1974/1/MPRA_paper_1974.pdf
Aristovnik, Aleksander (2007): Short- and medium-term determinants of current account balances in Middle East and North Africa countries. Published in: The Business Review , Vol. 7, No. 2 (2007): pp. 251-264.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2073
2019-09-28T03:52:00Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433732
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2073/
Is It Time to Get Radical? A Game Theoritic analysis of Asian Crisis and Capital Control
Martawardaya, Berly
Salotti, Simone
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
C72 - Noncooperative Games
Policymakers in modern and open economies face a macroeconomic trilemma (Obstfeld, Shambaugh, and Taylor 2005). There are three main sought-after objectives:
1. to stabilize the exchange rate;
2. to enjoy free international capital mobility
3. to engage in a monetary policy oriented toward domestic goals.
Three main questions that we try to answer are : How the crisis exacerbated by international investor racing to pull out their capital from affected coutnries? Can capital control reduce it? Can capital control reduce contagion effect and regional financial instability?
Using game theoritical framework and insight from behavioral economics, we analyzed herd behaviour of international investors in the time of financial crisis. Under free international capital mobility, uncertainty and lack of coordination among investors with short-horizon, we found prisoner dilemma type of arrangement that exacerbated financial crisis.
Applying the anylisis to multi-stage game with government, we found that a credible threat of capital control could reduce herd behaviour and escape the worst of financial crisis. Therefore, fredom to employ capital control is a policy tool that enable escape from the trilemma and pursue all three goals at the same time.
We modify the framework to include multiple countries under financial crisis and fear of contagion. We found the ability to impose capital control, under certain conditions, will isolate the crisis and reduce contagion effect. We also explore the critical value when capital control should be enacted with regard to domestic economic condition, on which government political mandate base upon, and differences of reactions in relation to political regime.
We conclude by citing incidences of insistance toward comitment against capital control by IMF in loans approcal and US in free trade agreement as misdirected, unncessesary and even harmful in some cases.
2006-11-24
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2073/1/MPRA_paper_2073.pdf
Martawardaya, Berly and Salotti, Simone (2006): Is It Time to Get Radical? A Game Theoritic analysis of Asian Crisis and Capital Control.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2283
2019-09-28T03:26:06Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2283/
Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan
Siddiqui, Rizwana
Kemal, A R
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Foreign capital inflows (FKI) help an economy by financing the imbalance between income and expenditure. However, their impact on poverty in the recipient economy is a controversial issue. In this study, we examine the impact on poverty in two different scenarios: (1) labour is homogeneous; (2) labour is heterogeneous. The Computable General Equilibrium model for Pakistan is used to conduct simulations in order to assess the impact of an increase in foreign capital on poverty both in the presence and in the absence of trade liberalisation. Several interesting results emerge from the study. First, FKI tends to reduce poverty in the presence as well as in the absence of trade liberalisation when labour is homogeneous. However, poverty reduction appears to be larger in the presence of trade liberalisation. Second, when labour is differentiated according to qualification and is assumed to be sector-specific, in the absence of trade liberalisation a higher proportion of benefits of FKI accrue to skilled labour and poverty increases by all measures for both urban and rural households. In the presence of trade liberalisation, FKI benefits unskilled labour more, and poverty is decreased irrespective of the choice of poverty indicators.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2283/1/MPRA_paper_2283.pdf
Siddiqui, Rizwana and Kemal, A R (2006): Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan. Published in:
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3080
2019-09-28T23:33:17Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3537
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3136
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3080/
Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets
Demir, Firat
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Using micro-level panel data, the paper analyses the impacts of short-term capital flow volatility on new fixed investment spending of publicly traded real sector firms in three major emerging markets that are Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. The empirical results including comprehensive sensitivity tests suggest that increasing volatility of capital inflows has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on new investment spending of private firms. Accordingly, a 10 per cent increase in capital flow volatility reduces fixed investment spending in the range of 1-1.7, 2.3-15.1, and 1 per cent in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey respectively.
2006-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3080/1/MPRA_paper_3080.pdf
Demir, Firat (2006): Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3407
2019-09-26T23:53:23Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3407/
Financial Integration of East Asian Economies: Evidence from Real Interest Parity
Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
Chan, Tze-Haw
Masih, A. Mansur A.
Lau, Evan
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
In this paper, we investigate the financial linkages between the East Asian economies with Japan and the US using the real interest rate parity (RIP) condition. We test for long-run RIP using an array of panel unit root tests, including a recent technique developed by Breuer et al. (2002). This study offers two important results: first, we found strong (robust) evidence that the parity condition holds in all the Asian countries, except for China. For China, there is no evidence of RIP when Japan is used as based country. Real interest differential between China and the US exhibits a tendency towards stationary equilibrium over the period 1987-2006. Second, the analysis drawn on half-life suggests that the US-Asian link has been getting stronger than the Japan-Asian one in the post-liberalization era.
2007-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3407/1/MPRA_paper_3407.pdf
Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi and Chan, Tze-Haw and Masih, A. Mansur A. and Lau, Evan (2007): Financial Integration of East Asian Economies: Evidence from Real Interest Parity.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3908
2019-09-30T23:27:51Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3908/
US Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rate Tax
De Lima, Gabrielle
Moura, Guilherme
Meurer, Roberto
Da Silva, Sergio
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
We examine the relationship between the US current account deficit, the international value of the dollar, and the dollar reserves of foreign central banks. We find that the international value of the dollar impacts the US current account and also that dollar depreciations are accompanied by reductions in the inflow of foreign reserves. The inflow reductions are indicative that the US levies an exchange rate tax on foreigners because the foreign stock of reserves loses value.
2007-07-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3908/1/MPRA_paper_3908.pdf
De Lima, Gabrielle and Moura, Guilherme and Meurer, Roberto and Da Silva, Sergio (2007): US Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rate Tax.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4925
2019-09-27T16:32:35Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4925/
The Anatomy of Large Valuation Episodes
Bénétrix, Agustín S.
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
We examine episodes in which there is a large shift in a country’s net foreign
asset position due to the re-valuation of its foreign assets and/or liabilities. We
highlight the differences in large valuation episodes between countries characterized
by large gross stocks of foreign assets and liabilities and countries exhibiting large
net positions. Finally, we analyze macroeconomic dynamics in the neighborhood of
large valuation episodes.
2007-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4925/1/MPRA_paper_4925.pdf
Bénétrix, Agustín S. (2007): The Anatomy of Large Valuation Episodes.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5879
2019-09-26T12:32:46Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4630
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4635
7375626A656374733D46:4632
7375626A656374733D46:4633
7375626A656374733D45:4535
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463533
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5879/
The Single Global Currency - Common Cents for the World (2007 Edition)
Bonpasse, Morrison
F0 - General
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business
F3 - International Finance
E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This is the 2007 Edition of the only book in print in the world about the Single Global Currency, and is the only book in the world priced in 143 currencies (down from 147 in the 2006 edition.).This number is significant, as it's the number of currencies required among the 192 U.N. members to conduct local business, including the payment of taxes.
The book describes the origins of the current worldwide foreign exchange system, and tells how to change it; and save the world - trillions.
The multicurrency foreign exchange trading system was developed about 2,500 years ago to enable people of different currency areas to trade. That system has become far more sophisticated in the meantime and handles $3.2 trillion per day; but it is very expensive and risky. It is now time to replace that system with a single global currency.
In a 3-G world with a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union:
- Annual transaction costs of $400 billion will be eliminated.
- Worldwide asset values will increase by about $36 trillion.
- Worldwide GDP will increase by about $9 trillion.
- Global currency imbalances will be eliminated.
- All Balance of Payments problems will be eliminated.
- Currency crises will be prevented.
- Currency speculation will be eliminated.
- The need for foreign exchange reserves, with a current annual opportunity cost of
approximately $470 billion, will be eliminated.
- Worldwide interest rates will be lower than the current average due to the elimination of
currency risk.
Such gains are realistic and attainable if the world decides to pursue them. The monetary unions of Europe, the Caribbean, Africa and Brunei/Singapore have shown the way.
What the people of the world want is sound, stable money and the end to the obsolete multicurrency foreign exchange system. A Single Global Currency is no longer a utopian dream, but a realistic projection of what has been learned from current monetary unions, especially the euro.
Each successive annual edition of this book will be priced in the remaining number of currencies until we reach, in the words of Nobel Prize winner, Robert Mundell, that odd number, preferably less than three: one
The world needs to set the goal of a Single Global Currency, to be managed by a Global Central Bank, within a Global Monetary Union, and begin planning - now.
2007-01-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5879/1/MPRA_paper_5879.pdf
Bonpasse, Morrison (2007): The Single Global Currency - Common Cents for the World (2007 Edition). Published in:
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6099
2019-09-28T16:47:16Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6099/
Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey
Ardic, Oya Pinar
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Since the 1980s, most emerging economies have experienced economic crises associated with large, prolonged current account deficits and real exchange rate misalignment. Eventually these governments ended up devaluing national currencies. Empirical evidence from developing countries suggests that devaluation, in most cases, have been contractionary due to demand-side and supply-side effects. This paper studies the Turkish experience since the 1980s, and based on the results of a VAR analysis, finds that devauations were indeed contractionary.
2006-01-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6099/1/MPRA_paper_6099.pdf
Ardic, Oya Pinar (2006): Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey. Published in: Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, MEEA Online Journal , Vol. 8, (2006)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6835
2019-09-29T07:08:01Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3537
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6835/
Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in developing countries: A review
Demir, Firat
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
The paper reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence on the relationship between financial liberalization and socio-political risk by identifying the inter-dependent nature of socio-political and economic fault lines. In particular, the research examines the dynamic relationship between the volatility of short-term capital flows and socio-political instability. Accordingly, the socio-political risk is argued to be endogenously determined with the volatility of short term capital inflows such that increasing volatility by disrupting market activities, domestic investment and growth increases socio-political risk, which further feeds into the volatility of such flows. Using evidence from three major developing countries that are Argentina, Mexico and Turkey and applying Granger causality tests and Impulse Response Functions, the paper finds support for the presence of an endogenous relationship between the volatility of short-term capital inflows and socio-political instability. The results challenge the previous research regarding the use of political risk as a purely exogenous variable.
2007-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6835/1/MPRA_paper_6835.pdf
Demir, Firat (2007): Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in developing countries: A review.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6974
2019-09-27T17:08:19Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4631
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6974/
Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries
Reinhart, Carmen
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F1 - Trade
Devaluation is an integral part of adjustment in many developing countries, particularly relied upon by countries facing large external imbalances. A devaluation can only reduce trade imbalances if it translates to a real devaluation and if trade flows respond to relative prices in a sig nificant and predictable manner. However, a recent strand in the empirical trade literature has questioned the existence of a stable relationship between trade flows and its traditional determinants. This paper re-examines the relationship between relative prices and imports and exports in a sample of 12 developing countries.
1995-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6974/1/MPRA_paper_6974.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen (1995): Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries. Published in: IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 42, No. 2 (June 1995): pp. 290-312.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7300
2019-09-27T08:40:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7300/
The real interest rate differential: international evidence based on nonlinear unit root tests
Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
Chan, Tze-Haw
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This paper aims at testing international parity conditions by using nonlinear unit root tests advocated by Kapetanios et al. (2003, KSS). Results from the KSS tests based on 17 countries (G7 and 10 Asian countries) overwhelmingly show that the adjustment of real interest rates towards the RIP follows a nonlinear process except for the Malaysian relationships with both the US and Japan. Overall, the empirical results are in favor of RIP using the US and Japan as the center countries but only if nonlinearities are accounted for in the data generating process. Our findings confirm that interest rate differentials, like the real exchange rates reported in recent literature, display a nonlinear mean reversion process.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7300/1/MPRA_paper_7300.pdf
Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi and Liew, Venus Khim-Sen and Chan, Tze-Haw (2007): The real interest rate differential: international evidence based on nonlinear unit root tests.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7577
2019-09-26T11:49:46Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7577/
The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s
Reinhart, Carmen
Montiel, Peter
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
I certify that I have the right to deposit the contribution with MPRA
2001
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7577/1/MPRA_paper_7577.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Montiel, Peter (2001): The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s. Published in: n Stephany Griffith-Jones, Manuel Montes, and Anwar Nasution eds. Short-term Capital Flows and Economic Crises, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001) (2001): pp. 3-28.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7843
2019-09-28T19:18:09Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7843/
Hard peg and monetary unions.Main lessons from the Argentine experience
Carrera, Jorge Eduardo
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Currency board (CB) was a corner solution for Argentine hyperinflation, however its balance is
controversial. How does a CB work as a long run regime? After evaluating the result of ten years CB
regime, we obtain important lessons for a monetary union and for dollarization proposals. We discuss:
1) the capacity of such a regime to deal with real and nominal volatility, 2) fiscal problems and debt
dynamics, 3) financial problems under currency substitution, 4) CB regime compared with dollarization
and 5) the feasibility of a single–peg CB in a flexible exchange rate world.
2004
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7843/1/MPRA_paper_7843.pdf
Carrera, Jorge Eduardo (2004): Hard peg and monetary unions.Main lessons from the Argentine experience.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7844
2019-09-28T07:14:06Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433731
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433730
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7844/
Efectos precio y comercio en un area monetaria asimetrica
Carrera, Jorge Eduardo
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
C71 - Cooperative Games
C70 - General
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
Using a three countries model with flexible exchange rates, this study tries to analyze the situation in an asymmetric monetary area around a big country. The model consider a stochastic framework where the monetary policy is used to stabilize the inflation and the current account. The monetary policy works through the exchange rate and the interdependence is a consequence of the exchange rates spillovers (trade and prices effects). The Nash equilibrium was obtained and based on this result it is showed under wich circumstances cooperation could improve the policymakers situation. The relation
between spillovers specifyes the optimal monetary policy choice between coordination or Nash (to fix the exchange rates or not) and the viability of the coordination rule.
1995
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7844/1/MPRA_paper_7844.pdf
Carrera, Jorge Eduardo (1995): Efectos precio y comercio en un area monetaria asimetrica. Published in: Económica , Vol. 42, No. 2 : pp. 89-124.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7867
2019-09-26T09:53:52Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7867/
Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies
Arellano, Cristina
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are
higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina
such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7867/1/MPRA_paper_7867.pdf
Arellano, Cristina (2008): Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies. Published in: American Economic Review No. forthcoming (2008)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8148
2019-09-28T10:47:36Z
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7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8148/
Macroeconomic Management in APEC Economies: The Response to Capital Inflows
Reinhart, Carmen
Khan, Mohsin
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E50 - General
In recent years, there has been a surge of international
capital flows to many Asian countries. During
1990-93, developing economies in Asia received a net
capital inflow of $151 billion, more than double the
amount recorded for the previous four years. For certain
Asian countries, such as Malaysia and Thailand,
these inflows have amounted to as much as 15 percent
of GDP. These developments represent a
major turning point from the previous decade, when,
because of the debt crisis, little capital flowed to most
developing countries. This change is not limited to
only a few countries. The number of economies in Asia
experiencing a surge in capital inflows has recently
expanded; among the more recent recipients of capital
inflows are India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Other regions,
in particular, Latin America and the Middle East, have
also been attracting large amounts of foreign capital.
While issues pertaining to the management of international
debt dominated the policy discussions of the
1980s, the design of effective economic policies for
dealing with these capital inflows, and for ensuring
their durability, has become a key economic policy
issue in recent years.
1995
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8148/1/MPRA_paper_8148.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Khan, Mohsin (1995): Macroeconomic Management in APEC Economies: The Response to Capital Inflows. Published in: Capital Flows in the APEC Region, (Mohsin S. Khan and Carmen M. Reinhart, eds.), IMF Occasional Paper 122, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, April 1995). (1995): pp. 1-17.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8196
2019-10-04T06:24:19Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8196/
Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Leiderman, Leonardo
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
For the first time since the onset of the debt crisis in the slimmer or 1982, capital began to return to Latin America during 1990 and 1991.In general, Latin America's re-entry into the international capital markets was perceived as a positive development. However, policy-makers in the region have also voiced concern about the less favourable side-effects of these capital inflows. First, it was feared that the real exchange rate appreciation that of tell
accompanies these inflows would adversely affect the international competitiveness of the export sector. Second, there was concern thatthe inflows could be reversed abruptly, possibly doing considerable damage to the domestic financial system in the process. The fear (If
reversal was based on the experience of the debt crisis, which followed on the heels of the 'capital bonanza' of 1978-81. This chapter compares the recent capital inflows experience with that of the late 1970s. The analysis examines the differences and similarities between the two episodes over three broad areas:1. Domestic macroeconomic conditions in the recipient countries at the outset of both episodes. 2. The behaviour of the external factors that influence the international allocation of capital.3. The response of key macroeconomic variables, such as the real exchange rate, reserves, and stock prices to the inflow of capital.
1994
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8196/1/MPRA_paper_8196.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Leiderman, Leonardo (1994): Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s. Published in: in Edmar Bacha, ed. Economics in a Changing World, Vol. 4 Development, Trade and the Environment, (London: Macmillan Press, 1994). (1994): pp. 123-148.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8200
2019-09-28T00:27:13Z
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7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8200/
Capital Flows in the APEC Region
Reinhart, Carmen
Khan, Mohsin
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper describes the current episode of capital
inflows to several Asian economies, summarizing the
principal facts, the impact of the inflows, and policy
options.25 The discussion also covers, when relevant,
the similar experiences of Latin American countries,
with an emphasis on the policy priorities that could
ensure the persistence and sustainability of these flows,
as far as possible. The analysis draws heavily on previous
work by Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart (1993,
1994, and forthcoming, 1995), who used data for ten
Latin American countries and eight Asian countries, as
well as other recent studies undertaken in the IMF. The first part of this section describes the
main characteristics and macroeconomic consequences
of capital inflows to the Asian region. The second part
discusses the role of external factors in the present
inflows episode, as well as the likely factors that will
determine the sustainability of these capital inflows.
Finally, the relative merits of various policy responses
to the surge in capital inflows are discussed.
1995-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8200/1/MPRA_paper_8200.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Khan, Mohsin (1995): Capital Flows in the APEC Region. Published in: IMF Occasional Paper 122, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, April 1995). (March 1995): pp. 1-17.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8951
2019-10-01T10:33:20Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8951/
Capital Flow Reversals,the Exchange Rate Debate,and Dollarization
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
More frequent and increasingly severe crises are encouraging emerging market economies to seek means to make themselves less vulnerable to sudden stops in capital flows. Capital controls have been widely discussed, but dollarization may offer a longer-term and more market-friendly solution.
1999-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8951/1/MPRA_paper_8951.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo (1999): Capital Flow Reversals,the Exchange Rate Debate,and Dollarization. Published in: Finance and Development , Vol. 36, No. 3 (September 1999): pp. 13-15.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8952
2019-09-26T17:03:25Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8952/
Do Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations Carry the Seeds of Their Own Destruction?
Reinhart, Carmen
Vegh, Carlos
F30 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Most of the major exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERRS) in chronic inflation countries in the last 30 years have ended in spectacular financial and balance of payments crises. Moreover, there is a stunning resemblance in the dynamics of the main macroeconomic variables in all these programs. In the first stages, inflation falls, the economy expands, and consumer spending (particularly of durable goods) explodes. In light of this, the figure of the Finance Minister takes God¬like proportions. Shortly thereafter, however, the “dark side” of ERRS emerges. The slow convergence of inflation fuels a large real exchange rate appreciation which, together with the fall in private saving, lead to large current account imbalances and overborrowing. At this stage, the Finance Minister faces an unenviable dilemma: deflation or devaluation. Often forced by a run on the currency, he or she is eventually left with no choice but to devalue and then, having broken the no-devaluation pledge, is forced out of office, vilified, and blamed for most of the economic ills of the country.
1999
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8952/1/MPRA_paper_8952.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Vegh, Carlos (1999): Do Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations Carry the Seeds of Their Own Destruction?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9029
2019-10-06T02:34:04Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473135
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9029/
The transmission of foreign financial crises to South Africa: a firm-level study
Boshoff, Willem H.
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
G15 - International Financial Markets
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
The process of financial integration has increased the exposure of South African financial markets to foreign financial crises. This paper contributes to the understanding of crisis transmission by evaluating several hypotheses that claim to explain how financial crises are transmitted to South African financial markets. The study
proceeds from a firm-level perspective, which it argues overcomes the potential loss of information when using aggregate economic data. Consequently, the different transmission hypotheses are evaluated for the East Asian, Russian and Argentinean crises using firm-level daily stock return data from the JSE Securities Exchange. A multivariate regression model, supplemented by sensitivity tests, forms the core of the empirical methodology.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9029/1/MPRA_paper_9029.pdf
Boshoff, Willem H. (2006): The transmission of foreign financial crises to South Africa: a firm-level study. Published in: Studies in Economics and Econometrics , Vol. 30, No. 2 (2006): pp. 61-85.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9074
2019-10-05T03:41:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9074/
Growth and External Financing in Latin America
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Fernandez Arias, Eduardo
Talvi, Ernesto
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This paper discusses the economic performance of Latin America in the last decade, paying
special attention to growth and the financial sector. In particular, it shows that external factors,
such as like U.S. interest rates and the business cycle, play a key role in capital inflows,
investment, and growth.2 As a result, economic growth in the region tends to be fragile and
exhibits a high degree of co-movement, i.e., high cross-country output correlation. This last
feature exacerbates fragility, because there is little room for mutual insurance within Latin
America in case a country suffers a bad shock, and finance during downturns has to come
primarily from outside the region. The “Lost Decade” of the 1980s and the recovery of the early 1990s are clear illustrations
of these tendencies. During the 1980s the slow resolution of the debt crisis kept Latin American countries outside the international private capital market. In contrast, the 1990s brought a dramatic increase in capital inflows that exceeded expectations. In addition, whenever crises
struck, their negative effect on growth was dramatic. This paper will provide some clues regarding the big swings in capital inflows. It will
argue that although these swings are oftentimes triggered by external factors, domestic financial
vulnerabilities could seriously contribute to magnifying them. Thus, crisis depth is positively
correlated with phenomena like a weak banking sector and large debt amortizations. However, it
will also be argued that the central capital market has represented an additional source of
disturbance for all Emerging Market Economies (EMs) and not just Latin America.
2001-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9074/1/MPRA_paper_9074.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Fernandez Arias, Eduardo and Talvi, Ernesto (2001): Growth and External Financing in Latin America.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:9075
2019-09-26T20:29:54Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9075/
The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Fernandez Arias, Eduardo
Talvi, Ernesto
F30 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E00 - General
At the time of writing there were widespread concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.
There is conclusive evidence that the pace of growth has slowed, which has prompted the
Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on two occasions (a total of 100 basis points thus far). As
usual, when faced with this kind of turning point, analysts and policy makers alike wonder
whether the United States will achieve a “soft landing” or whether the downturn is more serious
and protracted—in the worst scenario, the new weakness could signal the end of the new
economy. Furthermore, recent inflation surprises have not been encouraging, as higher-thanexpected
inflation numbers may curtail the Federal Reserve’s desire and ability to act
countercyclically. In this paper, we do not attempt to provide any insights into what lies ahead for the U.S.
economy. Our focus is on gaining a better understanding of how the U.S. business cycle, its
associated monetary policy cycle, and their interaction affect developing countries. The question
of North-South linkages is hardly a new one; the role of trade and primary commodity markets in
linking developed and developing countries has a long history (see, for instance, Prebisch, 1950
and Singer, 1950). The links between debtor and creditor nations are also not new (see Diaz-
Alejandro, 1984, Dornbusch, 1985, and Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart, 1993). Indeed, what is
“new” is that some links that had been thought to be extinct have revived in recent years while
some “old” links have weakened. As Bordo and Eichengreen (1998) observe, the decade of the
1990s shares some of the features of an earlier age of globalization and high capital mobility
prior to World War I; namely, portfolio capital flows to emerging markets have re-emerged as an
important link between northern lenders and southern borrowers. This revival is particularly
pronounced in the larger Latin American countries. Some of the traditional links, however, may
have weakened, as many countries in Asia and Latin America have successfully diversified their
exports away from primary commodities. Hence, terms-of-trade shocks may (in some cases)
play a smaller role today than in the past. Both of these observations would suggest that, in
general, trade/commodity price links may have weakened while financial links may have become
stronger. However, one must be cautious in interpretation owing to the large variation across
countries in the degree of trade and capital market integration. While the share of primarycommodities in Mexico’s exports has declined dramatically in the past 30 years, the importance
of U.S. markets, owing to NAFTA, has soared, which suggests that the trade channel is
quantitatively important in the Mexican case.2 These are the questions we analyze. Our focus is
on how developments in the United States affect capital flows and growth in emerging market
countries across various regions and country groups.
2001-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9075/1/MPRA_paper_9075.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Fernandez Arias, Eduardo and Talvi, Ernesto (2001): The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10012
2019-09-30T16:45:20Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D50:5033:503330
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3532
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433637
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10012/
Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition
Avanesyan, Vahram
Freinkman, Lev
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
P30 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
O52 - Europe
C67 - Input-Output Models
This paper explores factors of economic decline in the small republican economies of the former USSR. It develops quantitative estimates of the costs of major transitional shocks for Armenia during the early transition, including the direct impact of terms of trade shock (price shock), direct impact of external demand shock (market loss), direct impact of fiscal shock (loss of transfers), as well as secondary effects of all the above shocks, defined as a further decline in macroeconomic aggregates due to a weakening of the overall domestic demand. These estimates
are obtained within a single framework, built on a detailed input-output model for Armenia, and using the actual 1987 data. Our estimates suggest that the cumulative impact of the external shocks of the early 90-s amounted to the equivalent of 85 percent of the pre-transition GDP, and both price and demand shocks were highly significant. At the same time, the fiscal shock was much less important in
Armenia due to its lower dependence on transfers from the union budget. The actual economic decline in Armenia in the first part of the 90-s was less severe than the model’s projections. We attribute this difference to a positive impact of market reforms on economic incentives.
2002-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10012/1/MPRA_paper_10012.pdf
Avanesyan, Vahram and Freinkman, Lev (2002): Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition. Published in: Armenian Journal of Public Policy , Vol. 1, No. 1 (September 2003): pp. 1-34.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11231
2019-09-30T10:03:52Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D4C:4C33:4C3332
7375626A656374733D4D:4D34:4D3431
7375626A656374733D50:5034:503433
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D48:4838:483837
7375626A656374733D48:4838:483833
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11231/
Comparative Survey on the Records of Fixed Assets of Companies and Public Institutions
Ecobici, Nicolae
L32 - Public Enterprises ; Public-Private Enterprises
M41 - Accounting
P43 - Public Economics ; Financial Economics
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
H87 - International Fiscal Issues ; International Public Goods
H83 - Public Administration ; Public Sector Accounting and Audits
This paper deals by way of comparison with the theoretical and practical methods to record the output and input of tangible fixed assets (non-current assets) in and from the patrimony of companies, on the one side and of public institutions, on the other side, intending to point out the differences and similarities, in compliance with the national norms and international standards of accounting (IAS and IPSAS, as the case may be).
2008-05-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11231/1/MPRA_paper_11231.pdf
Ecobici, Nicolae (2008): Comparative Survey on the Records of Fixed Assets of Companies and Public Institutions. Forthcoming in: Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldis Arad
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11962
2019-09-29T04:56:59Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11962/
Rethinking balance-of-payments constraints in a globalized world
Dabrowski, Marek
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
This paper confronts the traditional balance-of-payments (BoP) analytical framework (with its dominant focus on the size of a given country’s current account imbalance and its external liabilities) with the contemporary realities of highly integrated international capital markets and cross-country capital mobility. Some key implicit assumptions of the traditional framework like those of a fixed residence of capital owners and home country bias are challenged and an alternative set of assumptions is offered. These reflect the unrestricted character of private capital flows (with no “home country bias” and fixed domicile) determined mostly by the expected rate of return. As a result, the importance of BoP constraints (in their “orthodox” interpretation) diminishes and they disappear completely with respect to individual member states within a highly integrated monetary union. This does not mean, however, immunization from other kinds of macroeconomic risks.
2006-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11962/1/MPRA_paper_11962.pdf
Dabrowski, Marek (2006): Rethinking balance-of-payments constraints in a globalized world. Published in: CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 330 (August 2006)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:12125
2019-10-16T06:39:25Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D44:4434:443433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12125/
Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets and Capital Controls: A Model and a Test.
Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
D43 - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
This paper explores the implications of financial repression, specifically, imperfect competition in the financial sector and capital controls for equilibrium interest rates and current account imbalances; and the implications of liberalization. I find that (1) interest differentials between home and foreign markets exist and are higher the fewer the number of domestic financial institutions (2) liberalization of the domestic financial
sector - i.e. increasing the number of players - exacerbates current account imbalances in growing economies and reduces revenues from repression (3) revenues from financial repression decline when capital controls become porous (which may be a consequnce of trade liberalization), making liberalization of domestic financial sector more palatable to the domestic governments. An empirical exercise validates several predictions of the model.
2008-12-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12125/1/MPRA_paper_12125.pdf
Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur (2008): Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets and Capital Controls: A Model and a Test.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:12470
2019-09-26T12:21:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473135
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12470/
Hot money and economic performance: An empirical analysis
Duasa, Jarita
Kassim, Salina
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
G15 - International Financial Markets
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
The present study empirically examines the importance of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) or hot money from certain investor(s) or country(s) on Malaysian economic performance. In methodology, the study uses vector error correction (VECM) model of FPI inflows from major investors such as the United States, United Kingdom, Singapore and Hong Kong and Malaysian real GDP using quarterly data covering the period of Q1:1991 to Q3:2007. For further inferences, the study adopts an innovation accounting by simulating variance decompositions (VDC) and impulse response functions (IRF). It is found that the country’s GDP is highly attributable to UK FPI inflow especially in the long run.
2008-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12470/1/MPRA_paper_12470.pdf
Duasa, Jarita and Kassim, Salina (2008): Hot money and economic performance: An empirical analysis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13194
2019-09-30T20:52:53Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13194/
A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Parallel Markets and Dual and Multiple Exchange Rates
Reinhart, Carmen
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
There are cases where the parallel (or secondary) exchange rate applies only to a few limited transactions. An example is the “switch pound” in the United Kingdom during September 1950 through April 1967. However, it is not unusual for dual or parallel markets (legal or otherwise) to account for the lion’s share of transactions with the official rate being little more than symbolic. The official rate typically diminishes in importance when the gap between the official and market-determined rate widens.
To provide a sense of the comparative relevance of the dual or parallel market we proceed along two complimentary dimensions. First, we include a qualitative description in the country-specific chronologies of what transactions take place in the official market versus the secondary market. Second, we develop a quantitative measure of the potential size of the leakages into dual or parallel exchange markets. We classify episodes where there are dual/parallel markets into three tiers according to the level (in percent) of the parallel market premium: low (below 10 percent), moderate (10 percent or above but below 50), and high (50 percent and above). For the episodes of dual/parallel markets, we provide information about which category each episode falls in (by calculating the average premium for the duration of the episode). This is background material for "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation"
2002-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13194/1/MPRA_paper_13194.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen (2002): A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Parallel Markets and Dual and Multiple Exchange Rates.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13202
2019-09-26T15:14:03Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13202/
Political contagion in currency crises: A comment
Reinhart, Carmen
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Comments on: Alan Drazen, whose paper represents a first effort to formalize the role of political considerations in the process of how currency crises are transmitted across
international borders. The theoretical literature on “contagion” is scarce, and the empirical literature equally so. Yet the EMS currency crises of 1992-93, the aftermath of the Mexican peso crisis of late 1994, and the meltdown of several Asian currencies in 1997 all have a flavor of “contagious currency crises.” Thus gaining a better understanding of the channels for contagion is a fruitful and timely line of inquiry.
2000
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13202/2/MPRA_paper_13202.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen (2000): Political contagion in currency crises: A comment. Published in: in Paul Krugman, ed., Currency Crises (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER) (2000): pp. 67-70.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13229
2019-09-27T09:48:28Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D4E:4E32:4E3230
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13229/
Two Hundred Years of Contagion
Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela
Vegh, Carlos
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
N20 - General, International, or Comparative
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Over the past two hundred years -- some would argue even longer -- financial events, such as the devaluation of a currency or an announcement of default, have been capable of triggering an immediate adverse chain reaction among countries within a region and in some cases across regions. The impact of these shocks on the countries unfortunate enough to be affected usually included sharp declines in equity prices, a spike in the cost of borrowing in international capital markets, and a significant drop in the availability of capital. In more extreme cases, countries have lost access to cross-border capital flows. Significant declines in output have been the norm in these episodes. Yet, it is remarkable that on other occasions similar events have failed to trigger any international reaction, at least on impact. In some instances, financial markets appear to be quite willing to shrug off an event that will obviously have strong trade and real sector repercussions on the crisis country’s neighbors. We explore what leads some crises to be contagious and others not
2002
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13229/1/MPRA_paper_13229.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela and Vegh, Carlos (2002): Two Hundred Years of Contagion. Published in: Journal of Economic Perspectives , Vol. 17, No. 4 (2003)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13356
2019-09-28T19:15:33Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13356/
Formulating a policy response: Reply to Snowden
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Leiderman, Leonardo
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
In this short note we further discuss the role of macroeconomic policies to deal with surges in capital inflows. Primarily policies aimed at avoiding financial crises or an overvaluation of the real exchange rate.
1993
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13356/2/MPRA_paper_13356.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Leiderman, Leonardo (1993): Formulating a policy response: Reply to Snowden. Published in: IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 40, No. 4 (December 1993): pp. 865-868.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13357
2019-10-03T17:44:28Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13357/
Real interest rate differentials and the real exchange rate: Evidence from four African countries
Reinhart, Carmen
Asea, Patrick
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
During the early 1990s much has been written about the return of foreign private capital
to many of the larger Asian and Latin American countries. However, until 1992 there was little
evidence that countries in sub-Saharan Africa were participating in this phenomenon. In this
paper we use variance decompositions and impulse responses from vector autoregressions to
shed light on the possible causes and consequences of capital inflows to four countries: Ghana,
Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. We use trend-cycle decompositions to provide evidence linking
the appreciation of the real exchange rate to periods of heavy capital inflows. We show that
domestic real interest rates have played an important role in explaining the recent behavior of the
real exchange rate. In particular, we trace the rise in domestic nominal and real interest rates to
policies designed to liberalize the domestic financial sector and attempts to curb the monetary
expansion associated with the capital inflows through sterilized intervention.
1995
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13357/1/MPRA_paper_13357.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Asea, Patrick (1995): Real interest rate differentials and the real exchange rate: Evidence from four African countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13400
2019-09-26T16:49:32Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13400/
What is next for financial globalization: Some perspective gained from the experience of capital flows to emerging market economies
Reinhart, Carmen
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
From Hume’s discussion of the specie-flow mechanism under the gold standard to the Keynes-Ohlin debate on the transfer problem associated with German reparations after the First World War, understanding the flow of capital across national borders has been central to international economics. My work on the topic has focused mainly on the flow of funds between rich and poor countries.
2006-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13400/1/MPRA_paper_13400.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen (2006): What is next for financial globalization: Some perspective gained from the experience of capital flows to emerging market economies.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13406
2019-09-27T16:51:45Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13406/
Capital inflows to Latin America
Reinhart, Carmen
Leiderman, Leonardo
F20 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Capital inflows are not an unmitigated blessing for the receiving region or country; in fact, they may pose serious dilemmas for economic policy. Large capital inflows are often associated with money and credit expansion, inflationary pressures, a real exchange rate appreciation, and a deterioration in the current account of the
balance of payments. In addition, the history of Latin America provides ample evidence that massive capital inflows may also have strong impacts on the stock market, the real estate market, and the money market-impacts which may well threaten tbe stability of these markets and of the financial system as a whole.
1994
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13406/1/MPRA_paper_13406.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Leiderman, Leonardo (1994): Capital inflows to Latin America. Published in: A Study Group Report—Latin America Capital Flows: Living with Volatility, (Washington DC: Group of Thirty) (1994)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13427
2019-09-29T16:22:51Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13427/
Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation
Reinhart, Carmen
Vegh, Carlos
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
Exchange rate based inflation stabilization programs in developing countries often lead to an initial consumption boom followed by an eventual recession. To explain such phenomenon, theoretical models have focused on the role of intertemporal consumption substitution in response to temporary reductions in nominal interest rates. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of such mechanism for six high-inflation developing countries that have gone through repeated stabilization attempts. A simple monetary model is used to obtain estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, and dynamics simulations are carried out to test the predictive power of the model. The analysis concludes that, in several cases, temporary shocks appeared to have played a key role in generating a consumption boom.
1994
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13427/1/MPRA_paper_13427.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Vegh, Carlos (1994): Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13468
2019-09-27T04:46:15Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13468/
La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Vegh, Carlos
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
Este trabajo presenta un análisis teórico y empirico de las politicas dirigidas a alcanzar un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real. Un modelo de optimización
intertemporal sugiere que, en ausencia de cambios en la politica fiscal, un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real só1o puede mantenerse de manera temporal. Esto
puede lograrse a través de un mayor nivel de la inflación y/o tasa real de interks, dependiendo del grado de movilidad del capital. La evidencia de Brasil, Chile y
Colombia sustenta la predicción del modelo según la cual tasas de cambio subvaluadas estan asociadas con una mayor inflación.
1994
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13468/1/MPRA_paper_13468.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Vegh, Carlos (1994): La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia. Published in: Enayos Sobre Politica Economica , Vol. 25, (June 1994): pp. 7-50.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13553
2019-09-26T13:45:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13553/
Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates
Annicchiarico, Barbara
Piergallini, Alessandro
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E52 - Monetary Policy
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The adoption of a Taylor-type monetary policy rule and an inflation target for emerging market economies that choose a flexible exchange rate regime is often advocated. This paper investigates the issue of exchange rate determination when interest-rate feedback rules are implemented in a continuous-time optimizing model of a small open economy facing an imperfect global capital market. It is demonstrated that when a risk premium on external debt affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Taylor principle is not a necessary condition for determinacy of equilibrium. On the other hand, it is shown that exchange rate dynamics critically depends on whether monetary policy is active or passive.
2009
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13553/1/MPRA_paper_13553.pdf
Annicchiarico, Barbara and Piergallini, Alessandro (2009): Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13556
2019-10-02T16:44:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13556/
Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates
Annicchiarico, Barbara
Piergallini, Alessandro
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E52 - Monetary Policy
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The adoption of a Taylor-type monetary policy rule and an inflation target for emerging market economies that choose a flexible exchange rate regime is often advocated. This paper investigates the issue of exchange rate determination when interest-rate feedback rules are implemented in a continuous-time optimizing model of a small open economy facing an imperfect global capital market. It is demonstrated that when a risk premium on external debt affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Taylor principle is not a necessary condition for determinacy of equilibrium. On the other hand, it is shown that exchange rate dynamics critically depends on whether monetary policy is active or passive.
2009
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13556/2/MPRA_paper_13556.pdf
Annicchiarico, Barbara and Piergallini, Alessandro (2009): Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13557
2019-10-06T01:41:19Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13557/
Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates
Annicchiarico, Barbara
Piergallini, Alessandro
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E52 - Monetary Policy
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The adoption of a Taylor-type monetary policy rule and an inflation target for emerging market economies that choose a flexible exchange rate regime is often advocated. This paper investigates the issue of exchange rate determination when interest-rate feedback rules are implemented in a continuous-time optimizing model of a small open economy facing an imperfect global capital market. It is demonstrated that when a risk premium on external debt affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Taylor principle is not a necessary condition for determinacy of equilibrium. On the other hand, it is shown that exchange rate dynamics critically depends on whether monetary policy is active or passive.
2009
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13557/1/MPRA_paper_13557.pdf
Annicchiarico, Barbara and Piergallini, Alessandro (2009): Country-Specific Risk Premium, Taylor Rules, and Exchange Rates.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13681
2019-09-26T11:53:01Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13681/
Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Leiderman, Leonardo
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The characteristics of recent capital inflows to Latin America are discussed. It is argued that these inflows are partially explained by economic conditions outside the region, like the recession in the United States and lower international interest rates. The importance of external factors suggests that a reversal in those conditons may lead to a future capital outflow, increasing the macroeconomic vulnerability on Latin American economies. Policy options, it is argued, are limited.
1993
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13681/1/MPRA_paper_13681.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Leiderman, Leonardo (1993): Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos. Published in: Macroeconomia de los Flujos de Capital en Colombia y América Latina (1993): pp. 15-84.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13763
2019-09-30T16:49:47Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D45:4534
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13763/
Twin fallacies about exchange rate policy: A note
Reinhart, Carmen
Reinhart, Vincent
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
E4 - Money and Interest Rates
Two assertions about exchange rate regimes circulate with some frequency in policy circles. The first, which could be called the hypothesis of the excluded middle, holds that authorities must either choose perfectly floating exchange rates or a hard peg. The second, seemingly unrelated, notion attempts to explain why policy makers in some countries have little credibility. That mistrust, exemplified by the inability of emerging market economies to borrow at long maturities in their own currencies (original sin), transcends current fundamentals and traces back to the failure of prior policy makers. We argue that the theories of the excluded middle and original sin are twin and related fallacies that are contrary to theory and evidence. The sense that credibility problems stem from a simple and irrational source–failures of prior generations of policy makers–lends credence to alternative regimes that seem to allow the easy purchase of investor confidence–an exchange rate regime at one of the corners. Two decades of theory and empirical evidence cumulate to argue that this is too simple an answer. As to the theory, the literature on time inconsistency has amply demonstrated that the inability to precommit future policy decisions gives reason to doubt that the current regime will be maintained. That doubt stems, not from the record of prior failures, but from the inconsistency of incentives in the future.
2003-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13763/1/MPRA_paper_13763.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (2003): Twin fallacies about exchange rate policy: A note. Published in: Economika , Vol. 15, No. 3 : pp. 12-24.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13765
2019-09-28T14:49:19Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13765/
Targeting the real exchange rate
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Vegh, Carlos
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be
attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model's prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.
1994-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13765/1/MPRA_paper_13765.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Vegh, Carlos (1994): Targeting the real exchange rate. Published in: Journal of Development Econommics , Vol. 47, (June 1995): pp. 97-133.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13843
2019-09-30T16:50:56Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13843/
Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America
Reinhart, Carmen
Calvo, Guillermo
Leiderman, Leonardo
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The characteristfcs of recent capital inflows into Latin America are discussed. It is argued that these inflows are partly explained by conditions outside the region, like recession in the United States and lower international interest rates. This suggests the possibility that a reversal of those conditions may lead to a future capital outflow,
fncreasing the macroeconomic vulnerability of Latin American economies. Policy options are argued to be lfmited.
1992
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13843/2/MPRA_paper_13843.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Leiderman, Leonardo (1992): Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America. Published in: IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 40, No. 1 (March 1993): pp. 108-151.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13858
2019-10-02T05:35:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13858/
Inflation Targeting, Capital Mobility and Macroeconomic Stability
Dai, Meixing
Sidiropoulos, Moïse
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
In this paper we examine the macroeconomic stability in a simple dynamic open
economy model, in which monetary authorities adopt an flexible inflation-targeting regime in an
environment with a liberalised capital account and flexible exchange rates. In this respect,
inflation targeting is an essential part of a three-part policy (or trinity) that also includes
flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. We show that a low degree of inflation targeting
flexibility (i.e., central bank�s response is aggressive toward inflation) with a high degree of
capital mobility implies a dynamically unstable solution in this simple rational expectations model. In contrast, when central bank adopts a high degree of inflation-targeting flexibility (accommodative central bank), stability can be ensured under any degree of capital mobility. Finally, under low degree of inflation targeting flexibility, it seems necessary to limit the degree of capital mobility in order to maintain stability in countries opening their economies to international capital flows, mainly in emerging market and transition economies.
2003-07
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13858/1/MPRA_paper_13858.pdf
Dai, Meixing and Sidiropoulos, Moïse (2003): Inflation Targeting, Capital Mobility and Macroeconomic Stability.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13862
2019-09-26T15:14:03Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463336
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13862/
Stopping hot money
Reinhart, Carmen
Edison, Hali
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
While high interest rates and foreign exchange sales are the most common way of dealing with a speculative attack in the foreign exchange market, several countries resorted to
capital controls during recent periods of currency market turbulence. The purpose of this study is to use daily financial data to examine four of these capital controls episodes--Brazil, 1999, Malaysia 1998, Spain 1992, and Thailand 1997. We aim to assess the extent to which the capital controls were effective in delivering the outcomes that motivated their inception in the first place. We conclude that in two of the three cases (Brazil and
Thailand), the controls did not deliver much of what was intended--although, one does not observe the counterfactual. By contrast, in the case of Malaysia the controls did align closely with the priors of what controls are intended to achieve: greater interest rate and
exchange rate stability and more policy autonomy.
2001-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13862/1/MPRA_paper_13862.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Edison, Hali (2001): Stopping hot money. Published in: Journal of Development Econommics , Vol. 22, No. 2 (December 2001): pp. 533-553.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13863
2019-09-28T21:46:05Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13863/
Temporary controls on capital inflows
Reinhart, Carmen
Smith, R Todd
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
During the past decade a number of countries imposed capital controls that had two distinguishing features: they were asymmetric, in that they were designed principally to
discourage capital inflows, and they were temporary. This paper studies formally the consequences of these policies, calibrates their potential effectiveness, and assesses their
welfare implications in an environment in which the level of capital inflows can be suboptimal. In addition, motivated by the fact that these types of controls have often been left in place after the dissipation of the shock that lead to the controls being implemented, the paper evaluates the welfare cost of procrastination in removing these types of controls.
2002-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13863/1/MPRA_paper_13863.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Smith, R Todd (2002): Temporary controls on capital inflows. Published in: Journal of International Economics , Vol. 57, No. 2 (2002): pp. 327-351.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13872
2019-09-29T09:44:07Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13872/
FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability
Reinhart, Carmen
Rogoff, Kenneth
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a high incidence of war. In this paper, we examine the role that monetary and exchange rate policy may have played in explaining this outcome. Specifically, we document the incidence of inflationary episodes and currency crashes in order to compare countries within the region as well as to make comparisons with other regions. Furthermore, since monetary policy can range from very transparent to very opaque, we assess Africa’s track record with dual and parallel markets. We use the parallel market premia as an indicator of the degree of distortions and extent of transparency. Our findings, suggest that this is a promising line of inquiry because Africa does stand apart from other regions in this measure of transparency. We also discuss some of the fiscal underpinnings of Africa’s bouts with high inflation.
2002-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13872/1/MPRA_paper_13872.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth (2002): FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability. Published in: B. Plesovic and N. Stern, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda. Washington DC: The World Bank/Oxford University Press, (2002): pp. 247-282.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13898
2019-09-27T16:27:26Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13898/
Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination
Reinhart, Carmen
Vegh, Carlos
F30 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
Exchange rate-based stabilization programs in chronic-inflation countries have often
been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction. This consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility, in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary. This paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the 'temporariness' hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs. The paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the 'temporariness' hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms.
1995-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13898/2/MPRA_paper_13898.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Vegh, Carlos (1995): Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination. Published in: Journal of Development Econommics , Vol. 46, No. 2 (April 1995): pp. 357-378.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13931
2019-10-02T10:04:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13931/
The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China’s Exports Behavior
Rahman, Mizanur
F15 - Economic Integration
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
Vertical fragmentation of product value chain across borders is the driving force of growing economic interdependency in East Asia. A common currency, not flexible exchange rates between national currencies, would reduce flexibility in relative prices within East Asia. Its impact would be far greater for exports that have stronger production network linkage. In order to test the hypothesis, the paper estimates the effect of a common currency on China’s processing and ordinary exports separately. The distinction is necessary because the processing exports, unlike the ordinary exports, are produced along the regional production networks, with final stages of assembly and exporting being increasingly concentrated in China. The short-run dynamics indicate that the effect on China’s processing exports is more than double the corresponding effect on China’s ordinary exports. The long-run effect on the processing exports of intra-regional RER flexibility, which is otherwise the lack of a regional currency, is almost nine times as large as the long-run effect of a unilateral RMB appreciation. By contrast, the corresponding long-run effect is statistically insignificant for the case of ordinary exports that are produced primarily by using local inputs. The long-run coefficient of this intra-regional RER flexibility implies that the actual volume of processing exports is 20 percent below the potential. The magnitudes of these effects are consistent with the hypothesis that a common currency would further integrate East Asian production networks and promote regional economic integration.
2008-03-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13931/1/MPRA_paper_13931.pdf
Rahman, Mizanur (2008): The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China’s Exports Behavior.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13932
2019-09-26T09:12:15Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D4E:4E32:4E3230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13932/
Debt intolerance
Reinhart, Carmen
Rogoff, Kenneth
Savastano, Miguel
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
N20 - General, International, or Comparative
This paper introduces the concept of “debt intolerance,” which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country standards. We argue that “safe” external debt-to-GNP thresholds for debt intolerant countries are low, perhaps as low as 15 percent in some cases. These thresholds depend on a country’s default and inflation history. Debt intolerance is linked to the phenomenon of serial default that has plagued many countries over the past two centuries. Understanding and measuring debt intolerance is fundamental to assess the problems of debt sustainability, debt restructuring, capital market integration, and the scope for international lending to ameliorate crises. Our goal is to make a first pass at quantifying debt intolerance, including delineating debtors’ clubs and regions of vulnerability, on the basis on a history of credit events going back to the 1820s for over 100 countries.
2003-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13932/1/MPRA_paper_13932.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth and Savastano, Miguel (2003): Debt intolerance. Published in: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Vol. 1, (March 2003): pp. 1-74.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13934
2019-09-27T22:56:47Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463132
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13934/
The effect of a collective exchange rate adjustment on East Asian exports
Rahman, Mizanur
Kalirajan, Kaliappa
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies ; Fragmentation
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
This paper estimates long-run effects of a collective exchange rate adjustment on multilateral exports from China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The findings show that a 1 percent generalized appreciation of all East Asian exchange rates would reduce East Asian exports by about 3 percent.
2008-03-27
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13934/1/MPRA_paper_13934.pdf
Rahman, Mizanur and Kalirajan, Kaliappa (2008): The effect of a collective exchange rate adjustment on East Asian exports.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:14331
2019-10-02T05:16:08Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14331/
Assess The Long Run Effects Of Monetary Policy On Bank lending,Foreign Asset and Liability In MENA Countries
Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E52 - Monetary Policy
In this empirical study, we perform cointegrated relation to analyze the effects of monetary policy on bank credit to private sector, foreign assets and foreign debts in ten MENA countries include: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Tunis and Turkey. There are two co-integration techniques, the Johanson co-integration and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) are used to examine long run relationship between the variables. The empirical evidences with aggregate data of ten MENA countries show that bank credit to private sector and foreign asset increasing with a monetary expansion. However, the positions of banks’ foreign debts aren’t similar for different countries. Hence, the aggregate data show that bank lending channel is likely to be an effective monetary transmission mechanism in MENA countries.
2009-03-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14331/1/MPRA_paper_14331.pdf
Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi (2009): Assess The Long Run Effects Of Monetary Policy On Bank lending,Foreign Asset and Liability In MENA Countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:14460
2019-10-08T15:19:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4532
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14460/
Une explication des motivations rationnelles de la Chine au surendettement de l'économie américaine.
Jambu, Marc-Antoine
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
The current financial and economic crisis is not du to the Dollar paradox. That's why the growing "Global Imbalances" remains an interesting issue. By mixing theories from the litterature of Foreign Direct Investment in China and the Collateral theory developped in [Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, Garber, (2004)], webuild a model which give an explanation of the American Tresory Bonds reserve held by the Chinese Central Bank. We show that the Chinese governement doesn't really need to worry about the solvability of the American economy. Moreover Chinese governement has rational intensives for american overindebtness. The main limit of this strategy consist in less human capital accumulation expectations from the FDI positive externalities. Besides we show how inflation pressures, du to incomplete sterilisation of the chinese monetary policy, can be moderate by positive productivity and quality shocks. To finish we conclude that Chinese governement has no insentive to protect intellectual property rights, whereas WTO commitments have to be assumed.
2009-04-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14460/1/MPRA_paper_14460.pdf
Jambu, Marc-Antoine (2009): Une explication des motivations rationnelles de la Chine au surendettement de l'économie américaine.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:14980
2019-09-28T19:29:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453633
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14980/
إجراءات السياسات الاقتصادية لبرامج التعديل الهيكلي.
Benzarour, Choukri
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy
Abstract: This paper aims to explore the macroeconomic policies of IMF and World Bank structural adjustment programs. This paper also provides at first a simple analysis of the main reasons of LDC economic disequilibrium. Then it reviews the main components of the structural adjustment program which include several macroeconomic policies promoted to market-oriented reform in policies and institutions, with the goals of restoring a sustainable balance of payments, reducing
Inflation, restore the viability of the current account and the budget and stimulate growth.
2001
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14980/1/MPRA_paper_14980.pdf
Benzarour, Choukri (2001): إجراءات السياسات الاقتصادية لبرامج التعديل الهيكلي.
ar
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:15114
2019-09-28T17:08:56Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443632
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15114/
Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Javier
D62 - Externalities
F20 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Credit constraints that link a private agent's debt to market-determined prices embody a systemic credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and (constrained) socially optimal equilibria, which induces private agents to ``overborrow". We quantify the effects of this externality in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy calibrated to emerging markets. Debt is denominated in units of tradable goods, and is constrained not to exceed a fraction of income, including nontradables income valued at the relative price of nontradables. The externality arises because agents fail to internalize the price effects of their individual borrowing, and hence the adverse debt-deflation amplification effects of negative income shocks that trigger a binding credit constraint.
Quantitatively, the credit externality causes a modest increase in average debt, of about 2 percentage points of GDP, but it triples the probability of financial crises and doubles the average current account and consumption reversals caused by these crises.
2009-04-28
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15114/1/MPRA_paper_15114.pdf
Bianchi, Javier (2009): Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:15298
2019-10-24T17:07:57Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:15358
2019-09-27T04:34:48Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433638
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D4C:4C39:4C3937
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15358/
Choosing the extent of private participation in public services: A computable general equilibrium perspective
Chisari, Omar O.
Lambardi, Germán D.
Romero, Carlos A.
C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
L97 - Utilities: General
What determines the propensity to reduce or widen the extent of public ownership? Why has there been a tendency to privatise and concede public utilities during the nineties? The answers to these questions depend both on macroeconomic and microeconomic considerations. And correct answers could also help to avoid or prevent inefficient reversals and frustrations that jeopardize reform processes. An alternative perspective, that combines micro and macro arguments, is given by general equilibrium models. The objective of this paper is to explore the rationality of the decision of choosing the implicit “technologies” of private and public operators of utilities in an economy that has fiscal budget and trade balance in equilibrium. The simulations confirm that the choice of the technology to be used for servicing infrastructure depends on deep parameters of efficiency and costs. The model shows that there are plausible scenarios where the selection is not unique.
2007-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15358/1/MPRA_paper_15358.pdf
Chisari, Omar O. and Lambardi, Germán D. and Romero, Carlos A. (2007): Choosing the extent of private participation in public services: A computable general equilibrium perspective.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16270
2019-09-27T16:27:52Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443632
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16270/
Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Javier
D62 - Externalities
F20 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Credit constraints that link a private agent's debt to market-determined prices embody a systemic credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and (constrained) socially optimal equilibria, which induces private agents to ``overborrow". We quantify the effects of this externality in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy calibrated to emerging markets. Debt is denominated in units of tradable goods, and is constrained not to exceed a fraction of income, including nontradables income valued at the relative price of nontradables. The externality arises because agents fail to internalize the price effects of their individual borrowing, and hence the adverse debt-deflation amplification effects of negative income shocks that trigger a binding credit constraint.
Quantitatively, the credit externality causes a modest increase in average debt, of about 2 percentage points of GDP, but it triples the probability of financial crises and doubles the average current account and consumption reversals caused by these crises.
2009-04-28
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16270/1/MPRA_paper_16270.pdf
Bianchi, Javier (2009): Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16271
2019-09-26T13:08:50Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443632
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16271/
Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Javier
D62 - Externalities
F20 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Credit constraints that link a private agent's debt to market-determined prices embody a systemic credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and (constrained) socially optimal equilibria, which induces private agents to ``overborrow". We quantify the effects of this externality in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy calibrated to emerging markets. Debt is denominated in units of tradable goods, and is constrained not to exceed a fraction of income, including nontradables income valued at the relative price of nontradables. The externality arises because agents fail to internalize the price effects of their individual borrowing, and hence the adverse debt-deflation amplification effects of negative income shocks that trigger a binding credit constraint.
Quantitatively, the credit externality causes a modest increase in average debt, of about 2 percentage points of GDP, but it triples the probability of financial crises and doubles the average current account and consumption reversals caused by these crises.
2009-04-28
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16271/1/MPRA_paper_16271.pdf
Bianchi, Javier (2009): Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16356
2019-10-26T05:18:37Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16738
2019-10-02T23:30:18Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D51:5134:513433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16738/
Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account
Schubert, Stefan Franz
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy
Our objective is to study the dynamic effects of an oil price shock on economic key
variables and on the current account of a small open economy. To do this, we introduce time
non-separable preferences in a standard model of a small open economy, where labor supply
is endogenous and imported oil is used both as an intermediate input in production and as a
consumption good. Using a plausible calibration of the model, we show that the changes in
output and employment are quite small, and that the current account exhibits the J-curve
property, both being in line with recent empirical evidence. After an oil price increase, the
current account first deteriorates, and after some time it turns into surplus. We explain this
non-monotonic behavior with agents' reluctance to change their consumption expenditures,
resulting in an initial trade balance deficit which causes the current account to deteriorate.
Over time, with gradually falling expenditures, the trade balance improves sufficiently to
turn the current account into surplus. The model thus provides a plausible explanation of
recent empirical findings.
2009-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16738/1/MPRA_paper_16738.pdf
Schubert, Stefan Franz (2009): Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16748
2019-09-27T16:23:14Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473134
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453433
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3533
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D47:4733:473333
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3136
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453635
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16748/
Multiple Reserve Requirements, Exchange Rates, Sudden Stops and Equilibrium Dynamics in a Small Open Economy
Hernandez-Verme, Paula
Wang, Wen-Yao
G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading
E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
O53 - Asia including Middle East
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G33 - Bankruptcy ; Liquidation
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
E52 - Monetary Policy
E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - Foreign Exchange
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
We model a typical Asian-crisis-economy using dynamic general equilibrium tech-niques. Exchange rates obtain from nontrivial fiat-currencies demands. Sudden stops/bank-panics are possible, and key for evaluating the merits of alternative ex-change rate regimes. Strategic complementarities contribute to the severe indetermi-nacy of the continuum of equilibria. The scope for existence and indeterminacy of equilibria and dynamic properties are associated with the underlying policy regime. Binding multiple reserve requirements promote stability under floating but increase the scope for panic equilibria under both regimes. Backing the money supply acts as a stabilizer only in fixed regimes, but reduces financial fragility under both regimes.
2009-03-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16748/1/MPRA_paper_16748.pdf
Hernandez-Verme, Paula and Wang, Wen-Yao (2009): Multiple Reserve Requirements, Exchange Rates, Sudden Stops and Equilibrium Dynamics in a Small Open Economy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:17775
2019-10-05T03:46:03Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17775/
Is The U.S. Dollar Set to Plummet in Value?
Tatom, John
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Many analysts believe that the U.S. dollar is set to fall sharply because of the large U.S. current account deficit. The international transactions of a nation involve many currencies and countries, and the value of a currency is determined by all of these. The large U.S. current account deficit with the rest of the world is, according to some analysts, a risk to the overall value of the dollar. In their view, the dollar is at risk of a major decline. For many observers, it is the current account itself that is the cause of concern. The implications for the currency are important because some suspect that a currency overvaluation is the source of the problem and that the remedy will be a painful fall in the value of the dollar. Whether and how the currency will change depends on investment incentives here and abroad and on economic policy changes that will affect those incentives and not so much on the size of the current account balance.
2007-04-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17775/1/MPRA_paper_17775.pdf
Tatom, John (2007): Is The U.S. Dollar Set to Plummet in Value? Published in: Research Buzz , Vol. 3, No. 4 (30 April 2007): pp. 1-3.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:17776
2019-10-01T18:06:44Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17776/
Is the Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?
Tatom, John
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The Chinese government has come under increasing criticism from both the U.S. government and some critics in U.S. industry for manipulating its currency. This article offers some insight on whether the yuan is correctly valued. Evidence suggests that, regardless of whether a fixed exchange rate or a market-driven exchange rate is used, the yuan is close to a correct value, and efforts to force more appreciation could be deflationary for China.
2007-03-31
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17776/1/MPRA_paper_17776.pdf
Tatom, John (2007): Is the Chinese Renminbi Undervalued? Published in: Research Buzz , Vol. 3, No. 3 (31 March 2007): pp. 1-3.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18613
2019-09-27T12:55:52Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18613/
An assessment of the current account sustainability in Romania
Dumitru, Ionut
F15 - Economic Integration
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper assesses the sustainability of the CA deficits in the New Member States (NMS) of
European Union by estimating its structural component based on fundamentals. Using a large sample
of panel data, we estimated long term relationships for the CA deficit and its fundamentals using two
methods from the literature. The main conclusion of the paper is that in some countries there is an
excessive CA deficit which should be adjusted. In the case of Romania, the results are showing that
the structural CA could be between 6.3% and 10.9% of GDP, depending on the model used and the
econometric procedure. Another important result of the paper is that the main drivers of the CA
deficits in NMS are the economic convergence factors.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18613/1/MPRA_paper_18613.pdf
Dumitru, Ionut (2008): An assessment of the current account sustainability in Romania.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18614
2019-09-27T16:50:25Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18614/
O evaluare a sustenabilitatii deficitului de cont curent in Romania
Dumitru, Ionut
F15 - Economic Integration
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
This paper assesses the sustainability of the CA deficits in the New Member States (NMS) of European Union by estimating its structural component based on fundamentals. Using a large sample of panel data, we estimated long term relationships for the CA deficit and its fundamentals using two methods from the literature. The main conclusion of the paper is that in some countries there is an excessive CA deficit which should be adjusted. In the case of Romania, the results are showing that the structural CA could be between 6.3% and 10.9% of GDP, depending on the model used and the econometric procedure. Another important result of the paper is that the main drivers of the CA deficits in NMS are the economic convergence factors.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18614/1/MPRA_paper_18614.pdf
Dumitru, Ionut (2008): O evaluare a sustenabilitatii deficitului de cont curent in Romania.
ro
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18619
2019-09-30T02:48:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18619/
世界経済危機とグローバル・マネーの変動 ―国際経済秩序へのインプリケーションー
Shirai, Sayuri
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
Prior to the occurrence of the global financial crisis, the world had faced the “global imbalance.” This refers to the growing US current account deficit and, in parallel, the growing current account surpluses in China, other Asian countries, and resource-rich nations. This status of imbalance has been often called as the "Bretton Woods II system," as it shares the features similar to those of the Bretton Woods system prevailed from the 1945 to 1971. The Bretton Woods II system has been regarded sustainable for a time being as long as China and other Asian countries continue to pursue export-oriented growth strategies and actively intervene in the foreign exchange market aimed at stabilizing their currencies mainly against the US dollar. Nonetheless, the system entailed “instability” arising from the possibility of the system falling into the “hard-landing” scenario (triggered by the sudden withdrawal of foreign capital from the US markets, which leads to sharp dollar depreciation, decline in US stock prices, and cut in US long-term bond prices). The current global financial crisis differs from the hard-landing scenario, since it has not accompanied the “triple” declines. Nonetheless, the current crisis has resulted in re-balancing the global imbalance or a cut in US current account deficit.
This paper examines the features related to the re-balancing of the global imbalance, and analyzes whether the structural features of the Brettton Woods II system as well as instability remain. The paper stresses that the imbalance between the United States and China has been strengthened further after the crisis, as evidenced from that fact that the share of China in US current account deficit has risen from about 30% in the pre-crisis period to over 70% currently. Structural features characterizing the Bretton Woods II system, as well as instability, have also been enhanced since the crisis. The paper also examines the possibility of the euro and SDR to replace the US dollar and concludes that the immediate substitution may not be possible in the near future. It also discusses the implications with respect to the framework for achieving strong, sustainable, balanced economic growth agreed in G20 financial summit in September 2009.
2009-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18619/1/MPRA_paper_18619.pdf
Shirai, Sayuri (2009): 世界経済危機とグローバル・マネーの変動 ―国際経済秩序へのインプリケーションー.
ja
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:19151
2019-09-27T03:22:32Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19151/
External rebalancing is not just an exporters' story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro
Ruscher, Eric
Wolff, Guntram B.
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Global and European trade balances have seen strong divergences combined with strong movements in the exchange rate. Trade balances and real effective exchange rates are related. Using different measures of the real effective exchange rate, we show that this long-run link hinges on the relative price of non-tradable to tradable goods and services in relation to their trading partners. An improvement in the trade balance is associated with a fall in the relative price of non-tradable goods and services. The elimination of nominal exchange rates with the euro does not change these relationships. Government consumption increases the relative price of nontradable goods. The results highlight the importance of internal price adjustments for external balances, a point frequently overlooked in policy debates.
2009-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19151/1/MPRA_paper_19151.pdf
Ruscher, Eric and Wolff, Guntram B. (2009): External rebalancing is not just an exporters' story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:19158
2019-09-30T16:41:13Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19158/
Infrastructures et flux de capitaux privés vers les pays en développement
Kinda, Tidiane
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper shows the relevance of physical infrastructure and financial development for developing countries attractiveness to private capital (Foreign Direct Investments -FDI- and portfolio investments). Contrary to other studies, this analysis is based on “push-pull factors” and the “Lucas paradox” theoretical approaches, and takes into account the relationship between components of capital flows. The analysis also highlights the importance of non-linearity effects when assessing the role of infrastructure for capital inflows and the specificity of Sub-Saharan African countries compared to other developing countries.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19158/4/MPRA_paper_19158.pdf
Kinda, Tidiane (2008): Infrastructures et flux de capitaux privés vers les pays en développement. Published in: Revue Economique , Vol. 59, No. 3 (2008): pp. 537-549.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:19159
2019-09-28T14:10:47Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19159/
Les déterminants des flux de capitaux privés dans l’UMOA: Une approche empirique sur données de panel
Kinda, Tidiane
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This article uses the push-pull factors approach to analyze the determinants of private capital flows (foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, and debt) in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) over the period 1970-2003. The results show that (i) infrastructure, trade openness, and political instability are the main determinants of foreign direct investments; (ii) economic growth, trade openness, and infrastructure significantly explain portfolio investments; and (iii) inflation, infrastructure, and public consumption determine debt flows. Robustness checks show that these results do not depend on particular countries in the sample.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19159/1/MPRA_paper_19159.pdf
Kinda, Tidiane (2008): Les déterminants des flux de capitaux privés dans l’UMOA: Une approche empirique sur données de panel. Published in: Revue de la Stabilité Financière dans l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine , Vol. 2, No. June (June 2008): pp. 41-68.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:19163
2019-09-27T11:48:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19163/
Increasing private capital flows to developing countries: The role of physical and financial infrastructure
Kinda, Tidiane
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Combining the classical “push-pull factors” and the “Lucas paradox” theoretical approaches, and taking into account the relationship between components of capital flows -through Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) estimations-, this paper shows that physical infrastructure and financial development positively affect Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and portfolio investment in developing countries. The analysis highlights the importance of non-linearity effects when assessing the role of financial development for portfolio investment inflows. Lax monetary policy and excessive credit provision could weaken the financial system and significantly reduce portfolio investment flows. The results also show that for Sub-Saharan African countries, better physical infrastructure tends to attract more FDI.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19163/1/MPRA_paper_19163.pdf
Kinda, Tidiane (2007): Increasing private capital flows to developing countries: The role of physical and financial infrastructure.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:19504
2019-09-30T13:26:12Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473131
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19504/
Exogenous characteristics of short-term capital flows: can they be under control? evidence from Turkey
Levent, Korap
Özgür, Aslan
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
In our paper, we give an essay trying to explore whether short-term capital flows can affect and/or be affected by some main domestic macroeconomic indicators called ‘pull’ factors such as real effective exchange rate, trade balance, real income growth process, domestic inflation and real interest structure for the case of Turkish economy. Our estimation results employing some contemporaneous estimation techniques of unrestricted dynamic vector autoregression (VAR) models reveal that short-term capital flows have in fact an important role on the ‘pull’ factors in the sense that inflows appreciate the real effective exchange rate and in turn deteriorate the trade balance, encourage the real income growth, and decrease the real interest rates. But we could not find any significant effects of the ‘pull’ factors on the capital flows.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19504/1/MPRA_paper_19504.pdf
Levent, Korap and Özgür, Aslan (2007): Exogenous characteristics of short-term capital flows: can they be under control? evidence from Turkey. Published in: İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi , Vol. 2007, No. 1 (2007): pp. 1-16.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:20020
2019-10-01T04:47:20Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20020/
Testing international parity hypothesis in a multivariate identified co-integrating system: the Turkish evidence
Levent, Korap
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
In this paper, a multivariate co-integrating model is constructed upon the Turkish economy to examine the validity of the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest parity theories simultaneously. Estimation results obtained from the identified co-integrating vectors support a priori modelling expectations and yield evidence to the existence of both parities when integrated within each other. However, no evidence is obtained in favor of the two international exchange rate determination parity hypotheses when formulated in isolation. A policy inference derived from the paper can be summarized such that, since the market mechanisms seem to closely affect the long-run course of the nominal exchange rate, exchange rate based stabilization programs should be appreciated by economic agents in a cautious way.
2008
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20020/1/MPRA_paper_20020.pdf
Levent, Korap (2008): Testing international parity hypothesis in a multivariate identified co-integrating system: the Turkish evidence. Published in: İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksek Okulu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi , Vol. 2008, No. 1 (2008): pp. 129-137.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21605
2019-10-15T08:20:31Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21605/
From dollar peg to basket peg:the experience of Kuwait in view of the GCC monetary unification
Marzovilla, Olga
Mele, Marco
F15 - Economic Integration
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F31 - Foreign Exchange
In May 2007, Kuwait unilaterally abandoned the dollar peg, adopted in 2003 as a first step towards the monetary integration of GCC countries, to return to the previous basket peg system. The decision was motivated by the need to limit the inflationary pressures resulting from prolonged depreciation of the dollar against major currencies. Given the importance the anti-inflationary objective had in this choice, the work focuses on the peculiarities of Kuwait’s economy, justifying and reviewing the price dynamics in the light of re-pegging to the basket, in the belief that its composition has been affected by inflationary trends. To this end, an econometric model "Auto-Regressive Moving Average" is proposed to define the weights of currencies in the basket and the estimate shows that Euro’s has increased during the period, consistent with the goals against inflation. This is a particularly important to the future of the planned monetary union of the GCC countries, given the renewed commitment of Kuwait to be part of it, despite the existence of different exchange rate systems in force in other countries.
2010-03-18
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21605/1/MPRA_paper_21605.pdf
Marzovilla, Olga and Mele, Marco (2010): From dollar peg to basket peg:the experience of Kuwait in view of the GCC monetary unification.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21625
2019-10-04T06:43:14Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21625/
External constraint and financial crises with balance sheet effects
Dai, Meixing
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman’s (1999) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature as well as the teaching of international financial crisis. By explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and external equilibrium condition, it is shown that a financial crisis in emerging market economies, instead of being interpreted as a jump from a good to a bad equilibrium with zero investment and zero foreign debt, could be explained as a jump from an unstable dynamic trajectory to a stable one. The dynamic framework illustrates well the analysis of different factors at the origin of financial vulnerability and crisis. By discriminating the financial crises according to the severity of their negative impacts on the domestic economy, the present study also adds some insights in the analysis of policy implications.
2010-03-24
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21625/1/MPRA_paper_21625.pdf
Dai, Meixing (2010): External constraint and financial crises with balance sheet effects.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22133
2019-10-03T04:41:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22133/
Does the macroeconomic policy of the global economy’s leader cause the worldwide asymmetry in current accounts?
Quaas, Georg
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
Schnabl and Freitag (2009) sketch the causal chain that produced the current account surplus in China and the current account deficit of the U.S. (as a part of global imbalances) as follows: declining interest rates in the U.S. cause a redirection of capital flows into the periphery, rising capital inflows into China and other Asian countries trigger currency purchases by periphery central banks, and increasing stocks of foreign reserves on the asset side in the central bank balance sheet are matched by a proportional increase of reserve money on the liability side. To keep the exchange rate stable, foreign reserves are accumulated and reserve money expands. The Peoples Bank of China is trying to fight the inflation pressure with several measures, among them higher interest rates. This attracts even more foreign capital to China. Moreover, it cannot solve a problem that originates in the macroeconomic policy of the global economy’s leader. - A crucial point in this argument is the redirection thesis. The empirical evidence does not support this thesis in several respects—there is no evidence for a redirected capital flow away from the U.S. toward China, and there is no evidence that interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve are the cause of the capital flow to China.
2010-04-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22133/1/MPRA_paper_22133.pdf
Quaas, Georg (2010): Does the macroeconomic policy of the global economy’s leader cause the worldwide asymmetry in current accounts?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22435
2019-10-01T14:38:53Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463539
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22435/
Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America
Cohen, Joseph N.
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F59 - Other
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
International capital markets have grown to be a major force shaping today's world economy, presenting a range of opportunities and threats to developing countries. Capital market liberalization created large pools of much-needed capital that developing economies could access, but tapping these funds often came at the cost of increasing economic vulnerability, lost policy-making autonomy and a range of structural distortions that could ultimately undermine development in the long-term. As the potential threats of integrating one's country into global capital markets has become apparent, countries have devised a range of strategies to buffer themselves from the strains of global capital markets. This article considers the pursuit of monetary autonomy with reference to a typology of the strategies that policy-makers can use to open their markets to international capital, while simultaneously attempting to buffer themselves from the economic and political pressures of global financial integration. Such autonomy can be purchased in a myriad of ways, and a discussion of the choices facing Latin American and Eastern European countries is presented.
2008-10-28
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22435/1/MPRA_paper_22435.pdf
Cohen, Joseph N. (2008): Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22463
2019-09-26T08:21:18Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22463/
Zimbabwe’s Currency Crisis: Which Currency To Adopt In The Aftermath Of The Multi-Currency Regime?
Makochekanwa, Albert
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The study presented main features of possible currency options which can be potentially adopted by Zimbabwe in the aftermath of multi-currency regime. The currency options analyzed are dollarization, joining the CMA and re-introduction of the Zimbabwe dollar (Z$). The proposed management systems to underpin the reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar are currency board, free banking and Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ). For each of the options analyzed, the practicality of Zimbabwe in adopting and/or implementing such currency was also explained. Although any of the three options could be adopted and implemented, the study considered the options in the following descending order of priority: (i) dollarization, (ii) retaining the Z$ but under the management system of a currency board, (iii) Joining the CMA, (iv) retaining the Z$ under the management of RBZ, with the institution having new management, and lastly (v) free banking.
2009-12-28
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22463/1/MPRA_paper_22463.pdf
Makochekanwa, Albert (2009): Zimbabwe’s Currency Crisis: Which Currency To Adopt In The Aftermath Of The Multi-Currency Regime?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22484
2019-09-26T18:13:59Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22484/
From dollar peg to basket peg:the experience of Kuwait in view of the GCC monetary unification
Marzovilla, Olga
Mele, Marco
F15 - Economic Integration
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F31 - Foreign Exchange
In May 2007, Kuwait unilaterally abandoned the dollar peg, adopted in 2003 as a first step towards the monetary integration of GCC countries, to return to the previous basket peg system. The decision was motivated by the need to limit the inflationary pressures resulting from prolonged depreciation of the dollar against major currencies. Given the importance the anti-inflationary objective had in this choice, the work focuses on the peculiarities of Kuwait’s economy, justifying and reviewing the price dynamics in the light of re-pegging to the basket, in the belief that its composition has been affected by inflationary trends. To this end, an econometric model "Auto-Regressive Moving Average" is proposed to define the weights of currencies in the basket and the estimate shows that Euro’s has increased during the period, consistent with the goals against inflation. This is a particularly important to the future of the planned monetary union of the GCC countries, given the renewed commitment of Kuwait to be part of it, despite the existence of different exchange rate systems in force in other countries.
2010-04-14
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22484/3/MPRA_paper_22484.pdf
Marzovilla, Olga and Mele, Marco (2010): From dollar peg to basket peg:the experience of Kuwait in view of the GCC monetary unification. Forthcoming in: Global & Local Economic Review
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22806
2019-10-01T04:57:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22806/
The Structural Relationship between Current and Capital Account Balance in India: A Time Series Analysis
Chakraborty, Debashis
Mukherjee, Jaydeep
Sinha, Tanaya
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The long run relationship between current account balance (CAB) and capital account balance (KAB) and the repercussions of capital account convertibility (KAC) on growth process of a country is a much debated issue. In particular, in the aftermath of the Southeast Asian crisis, the limitation of the liberal capital regime for a developing country like India is often highlighted in the literature. However, the probable impact of introducing KAC on CAB in India generally is discussed theoretically. Though some of the existing studies in India have earlier focused on this research question, they have done so by exogenously assuming the existence of a single structural break in the interrelationship between CAB and KAB. The present study intends to bridge the gap in the literature by raising two empirical questions: first, how far KAC is likely to destabilize the CAB and second, measuring the strength of the interrelationship between CAB and KAB. The current paper also contributes to the literature by incorporating multiple endogenous structural breaks in the empirical analysis. The empirical findings do not support any long term relationship between capital and current account balance and reveals that two significant structural breaks are observed in 1993-94 and 2003-04.
2010-05-20
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22806/1/MPRA_paper_22806.pdf
Chakraborty, Debashis and Mukherjee, Jaydeep and Sinha, Tanaya (2010): The Structural Relationship between Current and Capital Account Balance in India: A Time Series Analysis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23598
2019-09-28T08:54:55Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23598/
Optimal Monetary Policy with Non-Zero Net Foreign Wealth
Mykhaylova, Olena
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E52 - Monetary Policy
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
I study the impact of net foreign wealth on the optimal monetary policy of an open economy in a two-country DSGE model with incomplete markets, sticky prices and deviations from the Law of One Price. I find that by optimally manipulating monetary policy, central banks can affect the timing of interest receipts (or payments) and therefore increase the risk-sharing role of the internationally traded asset. In particular, debtor nations find it optimal to allow their currency to float relatively more freely than do creditor nations. In order to maximize consumer welfare, in most specifications of the model central bank should target a weighted average of CPI inflation and changes in the nominal exchange rate.
2010-07-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23598/1/MPRA_paper_23598.pdf
Mykhaylova, Olena (2010): Optimal Monetary Policy with Non-Zero Net Foreign Wealth.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23976
2019-10-10T11:42:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23976/
Cross-country evidence on the relation between stock prices and the current account
Berg, Tim Oliver
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
This paper explores the relation between stock prices and the current account for 17 OECD countries in 1980-2007. I use a panel vector autoregression (VAR) to compare the effects of stock price shocks to those originating from monetary policy and exchange rates. While monetary policy shocks have little effects, shocks to stock prices and exchange rates have sizeable effects. A 10% contraction in stock prices improves the current account by 0.3% after two years. Hence I find a channel, in addition to the traditional exchange rate channel, through which external balance for an OECD country with a current account imbalance can be restored.
2010-05-19
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23976/1/MPRA_paper_23976.pdf
Berg, Tim Oliver (2010): Cross-country evidence on the relation between stock prices and the current account.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24149
2019-09-26T10:52:59Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24149/
Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries
Aristovnik, Aleksander
Djurić, Sandra
F15 - Economic Integration
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
O52 - Europe
The paper’s main objective is to investigate the empirical link between the fiscal balance and the current account (i.e. the twin deficits phenomenon). The paper focuses on the EU member states and candidate countries which are according to their different (e.g. historical, political, economical and geographical) characteristics divided into two major groups, i.e. old EU member states (EU15) and new EU member states and candidate countries (EU12+3) in the 1995-2008 period. Additionally, the importance of the so-called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in the considered countries is examined in order to draw some conclusions about the regions’ integration with international capital markets. The empirical results suggest that budget deficits in the EU member states and candidate countries have generally signaled relatively high level of substitutability between private and public savings, implying a relatively low correlation between fiscal and external imbalances. Thus, the empirical results in general reject the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis. Finally, the paper provides evidence of a relatively higher level of capital mobility, especially in the EU12+3 region in the second sub-period (2004-2008).
2010-07-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24149/1/MPRA_paper_24149.pdf
Aristovnik, Aleksander and Djurić, Sandra (2010): Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24210
2019-09-26T22:19:27Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463232
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24210/
Impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council
Marzovilla, Olga
F22 - International Migration
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F31 - Foreign Exchange
GCC Countries are characterized by a high incidence of foreigners on both the overall population and the labour force as well as by deep inequalities in social and economic term. These features have influenced the labour market and fuelled mutual tensions and grievances between nationals and foreigners. Consequently, these Countries need to reconcile the demands of economic growth with those of social stability. The latter requires a more equitable allocation of rights and duties along with not only more effective actions in terms of human rights, but also more stable economic dynamics, that prevents the redistributive effects of inflation. The anti-inflationary objective is a priority for Gulf Countries, which entails not only countering the effects, but also removing the causes of inflation.
The experience of the new millennium showed that the dollar peg, which characterizes the exchange rate regime of the GCC Countries, was a major vehicle of inflation for Gulf economies and suggests the advisability for its amendment. The alternative proposed in this article is to adopt a basket peg system whereby national currencies could be anchored to a basket of strong currencies that mirror direction and intensity of commercial and financial flows on the international market.
2010-05-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24210/1/MPRA_paper_24210.pdf
Marzovilla, Olga (2010): Impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Forthcoming in: Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24275
2019-09-27T16:26:59Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473131
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24275/
Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy
Korap, Levent
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
In this paper, the determinants of the portfolio based capital flows are examined for the Turkish economy. Following the structural vector autoregression methodology, the estimation results reveal that the ‘push’ factors based on the external developments for the Turkish economy have a dominant role in explaining the behavior of the portfolio flows. Further, the domestic real interest rate as one of the main ‘pull’ factors has been found in a negative dynamic relationship with the portfolio flows. This result is attributed to that the dynamic course of the portfolio flows should not be related to the excess return possibilities of the real interest structure of the Turkish economy.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24275/1/MPRA_paper_24275.pdf
Korap, Levent (2010): Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy. Published in: Doğuş University Journal , Vol. 2, No. 11 (2010): pp. 223-232.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24515
2019-09-28T04:36:04Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473135
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473138
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24515/
Banking Performance and Speculative Attacks Under Asymmetric Information
Nabi, Mahmoud Sami
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
G15 - International Financial Markets
G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
F31 - Foreign Exchange
The Asian financial crisis of 1997 evolved through many stages. Although there is a consensus among economists on its "ingredients", a disagreement still exists about the exact mechanisms. This paper proposes a model explaining the triggering event of the crisis as represented by the abandon of Thailand and Korea of their fixed exchange rate.
The model suggests that an external negative shock to the price of tradable goods can be the detonator of a currency crisis if some ingredients already exist. In this context,
I show that the efficiency of the banking system and the speculators-government interaction play crucial roles. Under certain conditions, an efficient banking system
enables the economy to resist to even high magnitudes of the shock, while an inefficient one leads to a currency crisis. In this model, abandoning the fixed parity implies a cost to the government and characterizes its type. Speculators infer the government's type when deciding to attack the currency. The paper has the following innovation: it shows that a slight variation in speculators' inference precision causes a sudden change in their sentiment, a speculative attack and the abandon of the parity.
2001-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24515/1/MPRA_paper_24515.pdf
Nabi, Mahmoud Sami (2001): Banking Performance and Speculative Attacks Under Asymmetric Information.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24569
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24569/
Notes on contagion
Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela
Goldstein, Morris
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F30 - General
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This note reviews the theories as to why financial crises spill over across national boundaries. We discuss alternative frameworks ranging from bilateral trade links to more complex financial interconnections via banks and other investors. We review the evidence on which channels of contagion mattered most in the numerous financial crises episodes of the 1990s.
2000
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24569/1/MPRA_paper_24569.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela and Goldstein, Morris (2000): Notes on contagion. Published in: Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets, Institute for International Economics (2000)
en
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