2024-03-29T12:52:31Z
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/cgi/oai2
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:211
2019-10-04T06:16:29Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/211/
Economic growth and currency crisis: A real exchange rate entropic approach
Matesanz Gómez, David
Ortega, Guillermo J.
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
F40 - General
F31 - Foreign Exchange
We propose a country classification of economic growth currency crisis consequences based on the entropic analysis of the real exchange rate. We show that this ranking is highly correlated with the annual minimum rate of growth, a proxy used to quantify real currency crisis effects.
2005
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/211/1/MPRA_paper_211.pdf
Matesanz Gómez, David and Ortega, Guillermo J. (2005): Economic growth and currency crisis: A real exchange rate entropic approach. Published in: Documentos de trabajo Funcas (September 2006)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:920
2019-09-27T16:12:18Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463137
7375626A656374733D43:4336:433638
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/920/
Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: A CGE Assessment
Willenbockel, Dirk
F40 - General
F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
The misalignment of the Chinese currency exposed by the rapid build-up of China’s foreign exchange reserves over the past few years has been the subject of considerable recent debate. Recent econometric studies suggest a Renminbi undervaluation on the order of 10 to 30%. The modest revaluation of July 2005 is widely perceived as insufficient to correct China’s balance-of-payments disequilibrium and has not silenced charges that China is engaging in persistent one-sided currency manipulation. Within China there are widespread concerns regarding the adverse employment effects of a major revaluation on labour-intensive export sectors, yet the likely magnitude of these effects remains a controversial issue. The paper aims to shed light on this question by simulating the structural effects of a real exchange rate revaluation that lowers the current account surplus-GDP by 4 percentage-points using a 17-sector computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy.
2006-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/920/1/MPRA_paper_920.pdf
Willenbockel, Dirk (2006): Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: A CGE Assessment.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2025
2019-10-03T02:05:07Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2025/
Re-examining Purchasing Power Parity for East-Asian Currencies: 1976-2002
Barumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
Chan, Tze-Haw
Fountas, Stilianos
F40 - General
F31 - Foreign Exchange
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
We investigate the behavior of real exchange rates of six East-Asia countries in relation to their two major trading partners – the US and Japan. These countries, Singapore excepted, were affected by the financial crisis of the fall 1997. Using monthly frequency data from 1976 to 2002 and the ARDL cointegration procedure we test for the long-run PPP hypothesis. We find no evidence for the weak form of PPP in the pre-crisis period but strong evidence in the post-crisis period. For the post-crisis period, we also find very small persistence of PPP deviations as indicated by very small half-lives (less than 7 months) and narrow confidence intervals with an upper bound of 1 year or less in most countries. Our findings reveal that the East Asian countries are returning to some form of PPP-oriented rule as a basis for their exchange rate policies.
2004
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2025/1/MPRA_paper_2025.pdf
Barumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi and Chan, Tze-Haw and Fountas, Stilianos (2004): Re-examining Purchasing Power Parity for East-Asian Currencies: 1976-2002. Forthcoming in: Applied Financial Economics
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:2759
2019-09-27T08:10:44Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463031
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2759/
Trade Openness and Output Volatility
Bejan, Maria
F40 - General
F01 - Global Outlook
N10 - General, International, or Comparative
This paper studies the effect of trade openness on output volatility.
We find that trade openness generally increased output volatility, although
this effect was stronger and more significant during 1950-1975 than during
1975-2000. However, if we split the sample into developed and developing
countries, we observe that more openness increased volatility in developing
countries, while it helped smooth output in developed countries. We also
find that the size of the government may have increased volatility in less
developed countries. Part of the positive relation between openness and
volatility may be explained by the positive relation between openness and
government size. Another important finding of this paper is that once
we control for government size and some measures of external risk, such
as terms of trade volatility and export concentration index, the effect of
openness on the output volatility turns out to be negative.
2006-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2759/1/MPRA_paper_2759.pdf
Bejan, Maria (2006): Trade Openness and Output Volatility.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:3566
2019-09-27T10:19:19Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3532
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3566/
The Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus for Turkey
Halicioglu, Ferda
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
F40 - General
O52 - Europe
This study investigates the validity of the demand-pulling and the supply-leading hypotheses using annual data from 1968 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is conducted to establish the existence of a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of causality among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from financial development to economic growth.
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3566/1/MPRA_paper_3566.pdf
Halicioglu, Ferda (2007): The Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus for Turkey.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:4828
2019-10-07T06:35:39Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3533
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D42:4234:423430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4828/
Forensic Accounting: Hidden balance of payments of the Philippines
Beja, Edsel Jr.
F40 - General
B50 - General
O53 - Asia including Middle East
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
B40 - General
An examination of the available data between 1990 and 2005 reveals that the balance of payments of the Philippines does not record large amounts of international transactions. Unrecorded international transactions for the 16-year period amount to US$ 192 billion (in 1995 prices). The results suggest a serious problem in the government’s macroeconomic management of the Philippines, and expose a weak or weakening capacity in the governance of international transactions.
2006-11-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4828/1/MPRA_paper_4828.pdf
Beja, Edsel Jr. (2006): Forensic Accounting: Hidden balance of payments of the Philippines. Published in: Loyola Schools Review , Vol. 6, (2007): pp. 1-14.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5176
2019-09-29T08:28:58Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463530
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3130
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3530
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3136
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5176/
Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Growth? Panel Data and Time Series Evidence from Less Developed Countries, 1970-2002
Sarkar, Prabirjit
F40 - General
F50 - General
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
O10 - General
O50 - General
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
The present study casts some doubt on the growth-promoting effect of foreign direct investment (FDI), which is widely supported by the proponents of financial globalization. The panel data analysis of 51 less developed countries shows a rising relationship between growth and FDI (relative to gross capital formation) only for the group of 11 relatively rich and open-economy countries. The time-series analysis observes meaningful positive relationships between FDI and growth only for 3 countries belonging to this group and some other countries. But by and large no long-term positive relationship exists between the two irrespective of income levels, openness and FDI-dependence.
2007-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5176/1/MPRA_paper_5176.pdf
Sarkar, Prabirjit (2007): Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Growth? Panel Data and Time Series Evidence from Less Developed Countries, 1970-2002.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5220
2019-10-01T06:16:33Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5220/
FDI-trade nexus: empirical analysis on ASEAN-5
Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui
Puah, Chin-Hong
Lau, Evan
Abu Mansor, Shazali
F40 - General
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
This paper investigates the dynamic linkages between FDI and trade of ASEAN-5 countries using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Empirical results suggest that FDI and import are complement to each other in long run but import tends to substitute FDI in short run. Conversely, export tends to substitute FDI in long run, however, complementary linkage was found between FDI and export in short run.
2007-10-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5220/1/MPRA_paper_5220.pdf
Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui and Puah, Chin-Hong and Lau, Evan and Abu Mansor, Shazali (2007): FDI-trade nexus: empirical analysis on ASEAN-5.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:5482
2019-09-26T23:27:35Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5482/
Uncertainty, Economic Reforms and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa
Aysan, Ahmet Faruk
Pang, Gaobo
Véganzonès -Varoudakis, Marie-Ange
F40 - General
E00 - General
E60 - General
During the 1980s and the 1990s, private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has on average shown a decreasing or stagnant trend. This contrasts with the situation of the Asian economies, where private investment has always been more dynamic. In this paper, it is empirically shown for a panel of 39 developing economies--among which four MENA countries-- that in addition to the traditional determinants of investment--such as the growth anticipations and the real interest rate--government policies explain MENA’s low investment rate. Insufficient structural reforms--which have most of the time led to poor financial development and deficient trade openness¬¬--have been a crucial factor for the deficit in private capital formation. The economic uncertainties of the region have represented another factor of the firm’s decisions not to invest. These uncertainties have consisted of the external debt burden and various measures of volatility.
2006
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5482/1/MPRA_paper_5482.pdf
Aysan, Ahmet Faruk and Pang, Gaobo and Véganzonès -Varoudakis, Marie-Ange (2006): Uncertainty, Economic Reforms and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6090
2019-09-27T18:58:30Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6090/
The Changing Dynamics of the East Asian Real Exchange Rates after the Financial Crisis: Further Evidence on Mean Reversion
Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
Chan, Tze-Haw
Aggarwal, Raj
F40 - General
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
F31 - Foreign Exchange
Using an improved statistical methodology including tests designed for heterogeneous panels, this paper tests for mean reversion in monthly US Dollar based real exchange rates for nine East Asian countries, including those that were severely affected by the 1997 Asian financial crises. The empirical results reveals mean reversion in real Asian exchange rates is a feature of the post-crises sub-period (1997-2005) but not of the pre-crises sub-period (1981-1996). Additionally, we make a point that a faster speed of convergence to PPP and lower adjustment half-lives for real exchange rates compared to those reported for major industrialized country currencies and especially so for the post-crises period in Asia.
2006-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6090/1/MPRA_paper_6090.pdf
Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi and Chan, Tze-Haw and Aggarwal, Raj (2006): The Changing Dynamics of the East Asian Real Exchange Rates after the Financial Crisis: Further Evidence on Mean Reversion.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6304
2019-09-26T09:46:22Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453235
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6304/
Financial Development and Instability: the Role of the Labour Share
ORGIAZZI, Elsa
F40 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E25 - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
This paper examines the role of the labour share in creating instability in a small open economy.
We assume that financial markets are imperfect so that entrepreneurs are credit constrained, and that this constraint is tighter for low levels of financial development. Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2004) have shown that as the degree of financial development increases, output rises but instability appears for intermediate levels of financial development. Crucially, they assume that labour is paid before production takes place, and hence crises are solely due to the increased
cost of debt repayment as firms accumulate capital. We show that under the more reasonable assumption that wages are paid at the end of the period, changes in the labour share also play a role in eroding profitability. Our analysis also predicts that financial crises are associated with
substantial movements in the sharing of value added between capital and labour.
2007-10-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6304/1/MPRA_paper_6304.pdf
ORGIAZZI, Elsa (2007): Financial Development and Instability: the Role of the Labour Share.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6642
2019-10-16T05:07:20Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6642/
Exchange rate policy and income distribution in an open developing economy
Tropeano, Domenica
Michetti, Elisabetta
F40 - General
In this work we are going to deal with the issue of distribution of income in an open economy within a simplified macroeconomic model with constant prices.this type of model could apply to middle-income developing countries, which have succeeded in fighting inflation through a policy of high interest rates.It will be assumed that the implicit target of monetary policy now becomes the exchange rate and interest rates are set to a high level to lower the exchange rate. Even if this strategy may work it may produce negative effects on output growth and the distribution of income.The lowering of the exchange rate target would have the following effects on distribution.It would cause a reduction in the growth of output,it would lower the wage rate.Domestically-produced income distributed abroad should increase instead.The domestic interst rate would rise only for suitable small values of the parameter which links imports to income.The effect on the profit share is indeed uncertain.
2008-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6642/1/MPRA_paper_6642.pdf
Tropeano, Domenica and Michetti, Elisabetta (2008): Exchange rate policy and income distribution in an open developing economy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:7720
2019-09-27T00:34:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4338:433832
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7720/
Network analysis of exchange data: Interdependence drives crisis contagion
Matesanz, David
Ortega, Guillermo J.
F40 - General
C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access
F31 - Foreign Exchange
In this paper we detect the linear and nonlinear co-movements presented on the real exchange rate in a group of 28 developed and developing countries that have suffered currency and financial crises during 15 years. We have used the matrix of Pearson correlation and Phase Synchronous (PS) coefficients and an appropriate metric distance between pairs of countries in order to construct a topology and hierarchies by using the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST). In addition, we have calculated the MST cost and global correlation coefficients to observe the co-movements dynamics along the time sample. By comparing Pearson and phase synchronous information we address a new methodology that can uncover meaningful information on the contagion economic issue and, more generally, in the debate around interdependence and/or contagion among financial time series. Our results suggest some evidence of contagion in the Asian currency crises but this crisis contagion is due to previous and stable interdependence.
2008-03-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7720/1/MPRA_paper_7720.pdf
Matesanz, David and Ortega, Guillermo J. (2008): Network analysis of exchange data: Interdependence drives crisis contagion.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:8950
2019-09-27T18:21:47Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8950/
Competition between Latin America and China for US direct investment.
De la Cruz Gallegos, Jose Luis
Ivanova Boncheva, Antonina
Ruiz-Porras, Antonio
F40 - General
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
There is a belief that the Chinese economy competes with the Latin-American ones for investment flows. Here we analyze the determinants of the US FDI outflows to the most representative Latin-American economies. We develop such assessment with a double-procedure cointegration analysis based on the time-series methodologies of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Liu, Song and Romilly (1997). The results suggest that long-run investment to the Latin-American region mainly depends on the performance of the US economy. Furthermore, they suggest the existence of a substitution effect between the Latin American countries and China for US investment flows.
2008-02-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8950/2/MPRA_paper_8950.pdf
De la Cruz Gallegos, Jose Luis and Ivanova Boncheva, Antonina and Ruiz-Porras, Antonio (2008): Competition between Latin America and China for US direct investment. Forthcoming in: Global Economy Journal
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10065
2019-09-29T23:48:22Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D50:5032:503237
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10065/
Armenia’s trade performance in 1995-2002 and the effect of closed borders: a cross-country perspective
Freinkman, Lev
Polyakov, Evgeny
Revenco, Carolina
F40 - General
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
P27 - Performance and Prospects
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
The paper deals with two issues. First, it focuses on the analysis of Armenia’s trade performance based on the utilization of standard statistical models and develops comparative estimates of this performance relative to the peer countries. The comparison is undertaken in terms of trade openness, diversification, and composition. The main finding is that Armenia has been lagging in its export development relative to most CIS countries. The recent improvements in exports helped somewhat to reduce the gap. The second part of the paper provides for re-estimation of the “costs of blockade” effect. Armenia’s trade under-performance cannot be explained in terms of distorted government policies, because Armenia is recognized as a reform leader in the CIS.
2003-12
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10065/1/MPRA_paper_10065.pdf
Freinkman, Lev and Polyakov, Evgeny and Revenco, Carolina (2003): Armenia’s trade performance in 1995-2002 and the effect of closed borders: a cross-country perspective. Published in: Armenian Journal of Public Policy , Vol. 2, No. 1 (March 2004): pp. 185-212.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10376
2019-09-27T14:50:48Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10376/
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria
Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu
F40 - General
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper seeks to estimate the long run behavioral equilibrium exchange rate in Nigeria. The empirical analysis builds on quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2006Q4 and derives a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER). The econometric analysis starts by analyzing the stochastic properties of the data and found all the variables stationary at first level of differencing. Accordingly, the paper proceeds by estimating vector-error correction models. Regression results show that most of the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate could be explained by real net foreign assets, terms of trade, index of crude oil volatility, index of monetary policy performance and government fiscal stance. On the basis of these fundamentals, four episodes each of overvaluation and undervaluation were identified and the antecedents characterizing the episodes were equally traced to the archive of exchange rate management in the country within the review period. Among others for instance, large inflow of oil revenues into the country and stable macroeconomic performance were discovered to account for undervaluation of the real exchange rate between 2001Q1 and 2006Q4 in Nigeria. The results further suggest that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within one to two years. The paper recommends the pursuance of sound monetary policy as an instrument for achieving real exchange rate cum macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.
2007-09-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10376/1/MPRA_paper_10376.pdf
Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu (2007): Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10846
2019-09-26T21:38:43Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4E:4E36:4E3633
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3133
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D4A:4A34:4A3430
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453432
7375626A656374733D4A:4A31:4A3130
7375626A656374733D4A:4A35:4A3530
7375626A656374733D4E:4E34:4E3433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10846/
Wage-stickiness, monetary changes, and real incomes in late-medieval England and the Low Countries, 1300 - 1500: did money matter?
Munro, John H.
N63 - Europe: Pre-1913
N13 - Europe: Pre-1913
F40 - General
J40 - General
E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems
J10 - General
J50 - General
N43 - Europe: Pre-1913
Bedevilling the ongoing debate about changes in real-incomes in late-medieval western Europe, especially during the so-called ‘Golden Age of the Labourer’, is the very troubling issue of ‘wage-stickiness’. The standard and long-traditional explanation for this supposed ‘Golden Age’ of rising real wages is that sharp fall in population – with the Black Death (from 1348), subsequent waves of bubonic plagues, and other forces for demographic contraction up to the late 15th century – dramatically altered the land:labour ratio in ways that led to a pronounced rise in the marginal productivity of labour, which in turn forced up real wages. This simplistic model assumes (1) that rising real wages in the agrarian sector were transmitted to other sectors (whether or not they also experienced rising labour productivity); (2) that changes in the marginal revenue product of labour did not diverge or vary from changes in its marginal productivity; and (3) that wages were flexible, downwards as well as upwards. Though one might readily provide evidence that the MRP of various kinds of labour, in England and the cross-Channel Low Countries (Flanders), did not in fact continually rise as this model predicts, the focus of this paper is instead upon the behaviour of money wages, with widespread nominal ‘wage-stickiness’, in relation to changes in the price-index and cost of living, in both of these countries. For England, the cost-of-living index is measured by the well known Phelps Brown & Hopkins ‘basket of consumables’ index; and for Flanders, it is measured by one that I have constructed from Flemish price data, using the same weights as in the PBH index.
For both countries, the evidence indicates that, while money wages for most craftsmen and labourers did rise following the Black Death – though by no means for all labourers -- such a rise did not in all cases keep pace with the inflationary rise in prices that both countries endured for almost 30 years after the Black Death. In England, furthermore, where most craftsmen and workers had suffered a fall in money wages in the two decades before Black Death, the post-Plague rise in money wages did not regain the level of the 1320s until the 1360s. In the later 14th century, however, first England and then Flanders experienced an equally dramatic deflation, one that endured into the first quarter of the 15th century. It was during this deflationary era that real wages finally did rise substantially – and chiefly because nominal money wages remained fixed, while the cost of living fell sharply. The rest of this paper analyses the various institutional, social, and other factors that help to explain the widespread prevalence of money-wage stickiness over very long periods, in England and the Low Countries. For England, the most significant institutional factor to be considered is the role of the 1351 Statute of Labourers, which tried to fix wages at the unusually low level that had pertained on the eve of the Black Death. No comparable wage legislation was imposed in Flanders; and yet the behaviour of real wages there did not significantly differ from those in England.
It must also be noted that, in the early to mid 15th century, some money wages did slowly rise, while deflation continued – thus indicating other forces at work to increase real wages; but in Flanders the resumption of short-term inflations, from the 1420s to early 1440s, with coinage debasements, tended to eliminate these gains, especially for woollen textile workers, those employed in Flanders’ major manufacturing industry.
The question posed in the title, ‘did money matter’, is a very important one; for the almost equally important focus of this paper is that the late-medieval inflations and deflations (including the pronounced deflation preceding the Black Death) were essentially monetary, and not demographic, phenomena.
2002-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10846/1/MPRA_paper_10846.pdf
Munro, John H. (2002): Wage-stickiness, monetary changes, and real incomes in late-medieval England and the Low Countries, 1300 - 1500: did money matter? Published in: Research in Economic History , Vol. 21, No. 1 (2003): pp. 185-297.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:10925
2019-09-26T18:02:08Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453632
7375626A656374733D4B:4B34:4B3430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D4E:4E32:4E3233
7375626A656374733D48:4833:483330
7375626A656374733D48:4836:483633
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473230
7375626A656374733D50:5035:503530
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
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7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
7375626A656374733D4E:4E34:4E3433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10925/
The medieval origins of the 'Financial Revolution': usury, rentes, and negotiablity
Munro, John H.
E62 - Fiscal Policy
K40 - General
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
N23 - Europe: Pre-1913
H30 - General
H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt
G20 - General
P50 - General
F40 - General
E50 - General
B11 - Preclassical (Ancient, Medieval, Mercantilist, Physiocratic)
G10 - General
N43 - Europe: Pre-1913
The basic thesis of this article is that the essential origins of the modern ‘financial revolution’ were the late-medieval responses, civic and mercantile, to financial impediments from both Church and State, concerning the usury doctrine, that reached their harmful fruition in the later thirteenth and early fourteenth century. That ‘financial revolution’, in terms of those national institutions for government borrowing and international finance, involving negotiable securities, in the form of annuities or rentes, and bills of exchange, is generally thought to have originated in eighteenth century England; but as James Tracy has earlier shown it first took place, on a fully national basis, in the sixteenth-century Habsburg Netherlands. The major obstacle from the Church was of course the usury doctrine, and more accurately the final evolution of this doctrine in Scholastic theology and canon law, along with the intensification of the campaign against usury from the early thirteenth century. The major obstacles that the State provided, with the spreading stain of ever more disruptive international warfare from the 1280s, were the nationalistic bullionist philosophies and related monetary-fiscal policies (to finance warfare) that together hindered the international flow of specie in later medieval Europe. For public borrowing, one must begin with the contentious policies of Venice, Florence, and other Italian city states in basing their finances on forced loans, which did pay interest, and thus with the usury controversies that erupted, over not just such loans, but the sale of interest-bearing debt certificates in secondary markets. The alternative solution, found elsewhere – first in northern French towns from the 1220s -- and one that would govern European public finance up to the nineteenth century, was to raise funds for urban governments through the sale of rentes, both life-rents (one or two lives) and hereditary or perpetual rents. These were not in fact loans but annuities, and hence they were not usurious, because the buyer of such rentes had no expectation of repayment (unless the government chose to redeem them); instead they represented the purchase of a continuous future stream of income (for at least one lifetime). Those rentiers who sought to regain some part of their invested capital had only one recourse: to seek out buyers in secondary markets. The true efficiency of modern public finance also rested upon the development of such markets and thus upon the development of full-fledged negotiablity; and public finance also depends upon satisfactory instruments to permit low risk, low cost international remittances. The solution to both problems lay in the development of the negotiable bill of exchange. Such bills, at first non-negotiable, emerged in the late thirteenth century as a response to circumvent not only the usury doctrine (to ‘disguise’ interest payments in the exchange rate) but also the almost universal bans on bullion exports. Yet another barrier that medieval English merchants faced was the virtual absence of deposit-banking because of the crown’s strict monopoly on the coinage and money supply, so that the usual origin of such banking, in private money-changing, was unavailable. Although English merchants sought remedies by using transferable commercial bills, they were not truly negotiable, for they had no legal standing in Common Law courts. But from the late thirteenth century, the Crown was incorporating the then evolving international Law Merchant into statutory law, and it also established law merchant courts, which did give such financial instruments some legal standing. In 1436, a London law-merchant court was the first, in Europe, to establish the principle that the bearer of a bill of exchange, on its maturity, had full rights to sue the ‘acceptor’ or payer, on whom it was drawn, for full payment and to receive compensation for damages. From that precedent, and then from those provided by similar law-merchant court verdicts in Antwerp and Bruges (1507, 1527), the Estates General of the Habsburg Low Countries (1537-1541) produced Europe’s first national legislation to ensure the full legal requirements of true negotiability – including the right to sue intervening assignees to whom bills had been transferred in payment. These Estates-General also legalized interest payments (up to 12%), thus permitting open discounting, another obviously essential feature of modern finance, private and public. Antwerp itself, with the foundation of its Bourse in 1531, became the international financial capital of Europe, especially as a secondary market in national rentes – the very instrument that became the foundation of English public finance, in the form of annuities, from the 1690s.
2002-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10925/2/MPRA_paper_10925.pdf
Munro, John H. (2002): The medieval origins of the 'Financial Revolution': usury, rentes, and negotiablity. Published in: The International History Review , Vol. 25, No. 3 (September 2003): pp. 505-562.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11013
2019-09-26T09:11:50Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4C:4C36:4C3637
7375626A656374733D4C:4C39:4C3930
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3133
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D4C:4C37:4C3732
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D4E:4E37:4E3733
7375626A656374733D48:4835:483536
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D4E:4E34:4E3433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11013/
South German silver, European textiles, and Venetian trade with the Levant and Ottoman Empire, c. 1370 to c. 1720: a non-Mercantilist approach to the balance of payments problem, in Relazione economiche tra Europa e mondo islamico, seccoli XIII - XVIII, ed. Simonetta Cavaciocchi
Munro, John H.
L67 - Other Consumer Nondurables: Clothing, Textiles, Shoes, and Leather Goods; Household Goods; Sports Equipment
L90 - General
N13 - Europe: Pre-1913
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
L72 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
F40 - General
F20 - General
E30 - General
N73 - Europe: Pre-1913
H56 - National Security and War
E40 - General
N43 - Europe: Pre-1913
A recurrent and indeed persistent problem in European economic history – a veritable deus ex machina -- from medieval to modern times, is Europe’s supposed ‘balance of payments’ problem in trade with the ‘East’. This supposed problem has often been couched in Mercantilist overtones: namely, that export of supposedly large volumes of precious metals, especially, silver to conduct trade with, first the Levant, and then with the rest of Asia meant a serious drainage of wealth from western Europe. This seems to be particularly true in the debate about the late-medieval ‘Great Depression’ in which some contend that this balance of payments ‘deficit’ led to monetary contraction, deflation, and then economic depression. This paper, while not denying periodic problems of monetary contraction and indeed deflation, provides a non-Mercantilist perspective on not just European but global trade from the fourteenth to early eighteenth centuries. It offers the following related theses:
(1) That late-medieval monetary contraction was far more related to falling outputs of mined silver and to reductions in the income-velocity of coined money and the related problem of hoarding, the roots of which were the growth of international warfare from the 1290s, significantly financed by coinage debasements; and together they provided serious barriers to the international flow of specie and bullion, and indeed to the emergence of bullionist philosophies, which are the very core of Mercantilism.
(2) That, insofar as such monetary contractions did lead to deflation, that deflation, in augmenting the purchasing power of silver (gram for gram), provided the profit motive for the technological solutions to this very same problem: namely, innovations in both mechanical and chemical engineering that produced the South German silver-copper mining boom, which quintupled Europe’s silver supplies from the 1460s to the 1540s, when even cheaper supplies of silver were arriving from the Spanish Americas.
(3) That South German silver-copper mining boom, controlled by German merchant bankers who also controlled the now thriving fustian-textile (linen-cotton) industry, had two related consequences:
(a) it was a major factor in the revival and expansion of the European economy in general and the growth of the Antwerp market in particular, via new transcontinental trading routes from Venice through Germany to the Brabant Fairs, based on a tripod of English woollens, South German metals, and Portuguese spices.
(b) at the same time, it promoted a great expansion in Venetian trade with the Levant, to acquire not only Asian spices but also large quantities of Syrian cotton to feed the booming German fustians industry.
(4) While the 15th-century Venetian trade with the Levant did indeed require large amounts of silver, perhaps enough to pay for two thirds of goods acquired in the Levant, the 16th century commerce with not just the Levant but the far larger Ottoman Empire benefited from a very new trade: the exports of fine quality Venetian woollens. This paper examines the reasons for both the rise and fall of the Venetian cloth industry
(5) While traditional explanations for the rapid decline of the Venetian cloth industry in the 17th century have focused on Venice’s own ‘internal faults’, this paper offers an alternative explanation: how England’s new Levant Company and the English cloth industries so successfully gained a major share of Ottoman and Persian markets, at the direct expense of Venice: through a combination of diplomacy and superior naval technology. Their success meant that even less silver was required to conduct this trade with the Ottoman Empire, than had been true for Venice.
(6) A further major factor in the decline of Venice in the 17th century was the final loss of the Asian spice trades, which had involved close Venetian ties with the Ottomans, to the Dutch and the English, who succeeded where the Portugese had failed. That story in turn allows us, with much more ample data, to examine the nature of vastly larger ‘balance of payments deficits’, so that as much as 80 percent of Asian goods had to be acquired with silver. That silver came not from Europe but principally from the Spanish Americas. Thus the major thesis of the paper is that first the South German and then the Spanish American silver mining booms greatly benefited Europe by promoting a vast increase in truly global trade.
2006-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11013/1/MPRA_paper_11013.pdf
Munro, John H. (2006): South German silver, European textiles, and Venetian trade with the Levant and Ottoman Empire, c. 1370 to c. 1720: a non-Mercantilist approach to the balance of payments problem, in Relazione economiche tra Europa e mondo islamico, seccoli XIII - XVIII, ed. Simonetta Cavaciocchi. Published in: Atti delle “Settimana di Studi” e altri convegni, Istituto Internazionale di Storia Economica “Francesco Datini” (Florence: Le Monnier) , Vol. 38, No. 1 (2007): pp. 907-962.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11209
2019-09-26T09:50:29Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D4E:4E36:4E3633
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3133
7375626A656374733D4A:4A33:4A3330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D4E:4E33:4E3333
7375626A656374733D4A:4A31:4A3130
7375626A656374733D4A:4A34:4A3434
7375626A656374733D4A:4A35:4A3530
7375626A656374733D4E:4E34:4E3433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11209/
Builders’ wages in southern England and the southern Low Countries, 1346 -1500: a comparative study of trends in and levels of real incomes
Munro, John H.
N63 - Europe: Pre-1913
N13 - Europe: Pre-1913
J30 - General
F40 - General
N33 - Europe: Pre-1913
J10 - General
J44 - Professional Labor Markets ; Occupational Licensing
J50 - General
N43 - Europe: Pre-1913
The traditional and almost universal method of expressing real wages is by index numbers, according to the formula: RWI = NWI/CPI: i.e., the real wage is the quotient of the nominal (money) wage index divided by the consumer price index, all employing a common base period (here: 1451-75 = 100). This method is very useful in comparing long-term trends, and in ascertaining whether changes in nominal (money) wages or changes in the price level were paramount in determining changes in real wages. But it does not permit us to make any judgements about the levels of real wages and thus does not permit us to make comparisons of real wages amongst different regions. This paper presents a new method of presenting and comparing real wages, and one that may also be independent of any common base period. This particular paper compares the actual changing levels of real wages for building craftsmen and their journeymen-labourers in southern England, Flanders, and Brabant, in the late medieval era (1346-1500): and the real wage is expressed here as the number of very similar ‘baskets of consumables’ that a craftsmen and his journeyman could each purchase with his annual money wage income, based on 210 days of employment each year. Using the working papers for Phelps Brown & Hopkins’ very famous price and real-wage indexes for England (1264-1954), which were presented only in disembodied index numbers, I was able to compute the annual values of all commodities in their ‘basket of consumables’ and thus the total value in pence sterling. Herman Van der Wee had constructed a price-index for the Antwerp region (1400-1700), with annual values in pence groot Brabant (but still converted into index numbers); and I have produced a similar price index for Flanders (1348-1500), with annual values in pence groot Flemish. All three baskets have very similar contents. All wages and prices are expressed in terms of quinquennial (five-year) harmonic means
The results of this comparative analysis are best expressed in the nine graphs that accompany this paper. But some brief conclusions may be stated here. First (as I had contended in two recent articles) the Black Death did not usher in a ‘golden age of the labourer’ in either England or Flanders, but was instead followed by a quarter century of falling real wages, because rampant inflation erased and countered the gains in nominal (money) wages. Real wages rose in the very late 14th and early 15th century because of a combination of institutional wage-stickiness and deflation. In the Low Countries, beset with war-induced and very inflationary coinage debasements, real wages again fell until the late 1430s, rising thereafter only with monetary stability, deflation, and ‘wage-stickiness; but then falling once more from the 1460s, because of warfare and debasement-induced inflations (to the 1490s). This evidence refutes the almost universally accepted axiom that the real wage is determined entirely by the marginal revenue product of labour. I do not, however, completely rule out the role of changes in productivity, though I offer the hypothesis that regional differences in Total Factor Productivity (and some degree of factor immobility) must be called upon to explain marked differences in real wages.
The most striking difference is that, at the time of the Black Death, real wages for master building craftsmen in southern England were only a third of those enjoyed by master craftsmen in Bruges; but by the 1480s, when inflation was far more serious in Flanders than in England, that gap had narrowed to just about 80 percent of that for the Bruges craftsmen, still the best paid in north-west Europe. In Bruges, the craftsmen’s journeymen did not fare as well, however, earning only half the master’s wage, while the English journeymen came to earn two-thirds of their masters’ wage by the 15th century – and sometimes, during periods of severe debasement-induced inflations in Flanders, the English journeyman’s real wage was slightly higher than that for his Bruges counterpart. In general, English building craftsmen fared better than their counterparts in Antwerp, earning somewhat less in the early 15th century, but more in the last third of the century, when inflations from severe coinage debasements again reduced real wages in the Low Countries.
2004-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11209/1/MPRA_paper_11209.pdf
Munro, John H. (2004): Builders’ wages in southern England and the southern Low Countries, 1346 -1500: a comparative study of trends in and levels of real incomes. Published in: L’Edilizia prima della rivoluzione industriale, secc. XIII-XVIII, Atti delle “Settimana di Studi” e altri convegni, Istituto Internazionale di Storia Economica F. Datini , Vol. 36, No. 1 (May 2005): pp. 1013-1076.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:11845
2019-09-26T12:51:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
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7375626A656374733D43:4331:433132
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7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3430
7375626A656374733D51:5131:513130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11845/
Causal Relationship Between Exports and Agricultural GDP in Pakistan
Memon, Manzoor Hussain
Baig, Waqar Saleem
Ali, Muhammad
C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
F40 - General
C50 - General
C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
O40 - General
Q10 - General
This paper is an attempt to investigate the causal relationships among agriculture and exports in Pakistan by using time series data for the period between 1971 and 2007. There are several efforts reflecting greater interest in exploring the possible relation between the international trade and economic growth. Increasing of Gross Domestic Product is the main target of almost every economy. Promoting exports of the country is one of the ways of achieving economic growth. Pakistan is among the developing countries, emphasizing to boost its exports since its inception. The major share of Pakistan’s export has strong backward linkages with the agricultural sector both in terms of primary and value added commodities. The findings have significant implications on Pakistan’s economic policy as both the variables have shown strong long-run relationship. There is also a bi-directional Granger-causality between the total exports and agricultural GDP. However, for short-run, both the variable does not cause each other in either direction.
2008-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11845/1/MPRA_paper_11845.pdf
Memon, Manzoor Hussain and Baig, Waqar Saleem and Ali, Muhammad (2008): Causal Relationship Between Exports and Agricultural GDP in Pakistan.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:12802
2019-09-27T16:45:39Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3130
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12802/
Things are different when you open up: Economic openness, domestic economy, and income
Beja, Edsel
F40 - General
F00 - General
F20 - General
F10 - General
O10 - General
B50 - General
“Does economic openness increase income?” is retested using quantity measures of trade, finance, and domestic economic size, and the short answer is: “It de-pends”. The results show that Africa and the Americas lose from both trade and financial openness, while Asia gains from trade openness but loses from financial openness. The industrialized region benefits from both trade and financial open-ness. In all regions, the domestic base compensates for any adverse effects of economic openness. The overall experience of economies with openness can be enhanced with healthier external and domestic engagements. The case study on the Philippines finds that the country gains from trade and financial openness but not from the domestic base. In this case, economic progress is difficult because the gains from external engagement are wiped out by the losses from domestic economy disengagement.
2009-01-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12802/1/MPRA_paper_12802.pdf
Beja, Edsel (2009): Things are different when you open up: Economic openness, domestic economy, and income.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13675
2019-09-28T08:24:38Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463131
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13675/
Trade Between Euro Zone and Arab Countries: a Panel Study
Harb, Nasri
F40 - General
F30 - General
F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
We construct an aggregate data panel to estimate price and income elasticities of the Arab countries imports from and exports to euro zone. We study the non-stationarity of our series and verify the cointegration hypothesis among the variables using Pedroni's heterogeneous panel cointegration tests (2004). The panel data circumvent the problem of short span sample and increase the power of the non stationarity tests. Then, we estimate the idiosyncratic and panel cointegrating vectors using DOLS (Kao and Chiang, 2000), FMOLS (Phillips and Hansen, 1990) and group-mean DOLS and FMOLS developed by Pedroni (2000, 2001). Our variables are shown to be cointegrated. Arab imports from Euro zone countries are income inelastic, but price elastic. Results of export function are not conclusive and depend on the used estimator.
2006-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13675/1/MPRA_paper_13675.pdf
Harb, Nasri (2006): Trade Between Euro Zone and Arab Countries: a Panel Study. Published in: Applied Economics , Vol. 39, No. 16 (2007): pp. 2099-2107.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13842
2019-09-27T19:30:31Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13842/
Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela
F40 - General
F30 - General
In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis--the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows and accompanied by an overvalued currency.
2000
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13842/1/MPRA_paper_13842.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela (2000): Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos. Published in: Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (2000): pp. 63-110.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13863
2019-09-28T21:46:05Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13863/
Temporary controls on capital inflows
Reinhart, Carmen
Smith, R Todd
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
During the past decade a number of countries imposed capital controls that had two distinguishing features: they were asymmetric, in that they were designed principally to
discourage capital inflows, and they were temporary. This paper studies formally the consequences of these policies, calibrates their potential effectiveness, and assesses their
welfare implications in an environment in which the level of capital inflows can be suboptimal. In addition, motivated by the fact that these types of controls have often been left in place after the dissipation of the shock that lead to the controls being implemented, the paper evaluates the welfare cost of procrastination in removing these types of controls.
2002-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13863/1/MPRA_paper_13863.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Smith, R Todd (2002): Temporary controls on capital inflows. Published in: Journal of International Economics , Vol. 57, No. 2 (2002): pp. 327-351.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13872
2019-09-29T09:44:07Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13872/
FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability
Reinhart, Carmen
Rogoff, Kenneth
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a high incidence of war. In this paper, we examine the role that monetary and exchange rate policy may have played in explaining this outcome. Specifically, we document the incidence of inflationary episodes and currency crashes in order to compare countries within the region as well as to make comparisons with other regions. Furthermore, since monetary policy can range from very transparent to very opaque, we assess Africa’s track record with dual and parallel markets. We use the parallel market premia as an indicator of the degree of distortions and extent of transparency. Our findings, suggest that this is a promising line of inquiry because Africa does stand apart from other regions in this measure of transparency. We also discuss some of the fiscal underpinnings of Africa’s bouts with high inflation.
2002-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13872/1/MPRA_paper_13872.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth (2002): FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability. Published in: B. Plesovic and N. Stern, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda. Washington DC: The World Bank/Oxford University Press, (2002): pp. 247-282.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:13877
2019-09-28T16:16:42Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13877/
Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now
Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela
F40 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
F30 - General
In this paper, we analyze the extent to which past financial crises share common characteristics in Latin America, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. We examine the recent crises in Asia and in Latin America, in particular their severity, to assess whether the considerable historical differences that we have documented for the earlier sample have eroded. We conclude that in a deregulated world, the "well-behaved" Asian financia1 crises are a relic of the past.
1998-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13877/2/MPRA_paper_13877.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela (1998): Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now. Published in: American Economic Review , Vol. 88, (May 1998): pp. 444-449.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:14099
2019-09-27T04:12:33Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14099/
What does a G-3 target zone mean for emerging-market economies?
Reinhart, Carmen
Reinhart, Vincent
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper examines the argument for a G-3 exchange rate target zone strictly from an emerging market perspective. A commitment to damping G-3 exchange rate fluctuations, however, requires a willingness on the part of G-3 authorities to use domestic monetary policy to that end. Under a system of target zones, then, relative prices for emerging market economies may become more stable, but debt-servicing costs may become less predictable. We use a simple trade model to show that the resulting consequences for welfare are ambiguous.
2000-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14099/1/MPRA_paper_14099.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (2000): What does a G-3 target zone mean for emerging-market economies?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:14101
2019-09-26T15:19:11Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14101/
A model of adjustment and growth: An empirical analysis
Reinhart, Carmen
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E20 - General
This paper develops a model merging the monetary approach to the balance of payments and a neoclassical growth model into a unified framework in which inflation, growth, and the balance of payments are simultaneously
determined. The empirical part of the paper presents estimates of the key parameters of the model for a sample of seven diverse developing countries and tests the validity of a subset of the theoretical assumptions.
The estimated model is then used for a variety of comparative static exercises, including the effects of f i s c a l and monetary policy changes, and devaluation.
1989
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14101/2/MPRA_paper_14101.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen (1989): A model of adjustment and growth: An empirical analysis. Published in: Macroeconomic Models for Adjustment in Developing Countries (1991): pp. 10-37.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:14102
2019-09-26T18:01:06Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14102/
Fiscal policy, the real exchange rate and commodity prices: A global framework
Reinhart, Carmen
F40 - General
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
The role of the international commodity market in transmitting disturbances is considered in a model that incorporates commodities as an input in production. The analysis employs a three-country framework: a liquidity-constrained commodity supplier and two industrial countries that import the commodity, export differentiated manufactured goods and hold the outstanding debt of the commodity exporter. In this setting the impact of
changes in fiscal policy, commodity supplies, and the real interest rate are assessed. Particular attention is paid to the responses of the real exchange rate, commodity prices, and the international distribution of debt to the various shocks.
1990
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14102/1/MPRA_paper_14102.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen (1990): Fiscal policy, the real exchange rate and commodity prices: A global framework. Published in: IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 38, No. 3 (September 1991): pp. 508-524.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16319
2019-09-26T08:57:17Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16319/
Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation
Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
This paper seeks to assess the impact of oil price shock and real exchange rate volatility on real economic growth in Nigeria on the basis of quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2007Q4. The empirical analysis starts by analyzing the time series properties of the data which is followed by examining the nature of causality among the variables. Furthermore, the Johansen VAR-based cointegration technique is applied to examine the sensitivity of real economic growth to changes in oil prices and real exchange rate volatility in the long-run while the short run dynamics was checked using a vector error correction model. Results
from ADF and PP tests show evidence of unit root in the data and Granger pairwise causality test revealed unidirectional causality from oil prices to real GDP and bidirectional causality from real exchange rate to real GDP and vice versa. Findings further show that oil price shock and appreciation in the level of exchange rate exert positive impact on real economic growth in Nigeria. The paper recommends greater diversification of the economy
through investment in key productive sectors of the economy to guard against the vicissitude of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility.
2009-05-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16319/1/MPRA_paper_16319.pdf
Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano (2009): Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. Published in: Research Journal of Internatıonal Studıes , Vol. Issue, No. Issue 11 (8 July 2009): pp. 4-15.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16503
2019-09-26T22:01:24Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16503/
Offshoring: Facts and numbers at the country level
Agnese, Pablo
Joan Enric, Ricart
F40 - General
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
Offshoring has lately received wide attention. Its potential effects, mainly to be materialized in employment and productivity dislocations, are yet to be fully assessed. However, some consensus has been attained as to how to proxy its theoretical definition at an aggregate level. Here we review the most conventional indices the economic literature has so far produced, and employ them to provide an overview of the extent of the phenomenon for a group of countries. Contrary to common beliefs, our data reveal that offshoring is not exclusive of large developed economies. Further, we highlight the continuing prominence of the manufacturing over the services sector, and observe that while services offshoring is on the rise, it still represents a small fraction of total offshoring.
2009-06-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16503/1/MPRA_paper_16503.pdf
Agnese, Pablo and Joan Enric, Ricart (2009): Offshoring: Facts and numbers at the country level.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16550
2019-10-01T22:32:56Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3130
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16550/
Things are different when you open up: Economic openness, domestic economy, and income
Beja, Edsel Jr.
F40 - General
F00 - General
F20 - General
F10 - General
O10 - General
B50 - General
“Does economic openness increase income?” is retested using quantity measures of trade, finance, and domestic economic size, and the short answer is: “It de-pends”. The results show that Africa and the Americas lose from both trade and financial openness, while Asia gains from trade openness but loses from financial openness. The industrialized region benefits from both trade and financial open-ness. In all regions, the domestic base compensates for any adverse effects of economic openness. The overall experience of economies with openness can be enhanced with healthier external and domestic engagements. The case study on the Philippines finds that the country gains from trade and financial openness but not from the domestic base. In this case, economic progress is difficult because the gains from external engagement are wiped out by the losses from domestic economy disengagement.
2009-01-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16550/1/MPRA_paper_16550.pdf
Beja, Edsel Jr. (2009): Things are different when you open up: Economic openness, domestic economy, and income.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:16552
2019-09-27T16:49:48Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D42:4235:423530
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3530
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16552/
Things are different when you open up: Economic openness, domestic economy, and income
Beja, Edsel Jr.
F40 - General
F00 - General
B50 - General
O50 - General
E10 - General
“What is the contribution of economic openness and the domestic economy to income?” is tested using quantity measures of trade, finance, and domestic economic base. The short answer is: “It depends”. Africa and the Americas lose from both trade and financial openness. Asia gains from trade openness but not from financial openness. The industrialized region benefits from both trade and financial openness. In all regions, the domestic economic base compensates for any adverse effects of economic openness. The overall experience with openness could still be enhanced with healthier external and domestic engagements, especially with the latter increasing its relative role in economies. The case study on the Philippines finds that its economy gains from trade and financial openness but not from its domestic economic base. In this case, economic progress is difficult because the gains from external engagement are wiped out by the losses from domestic economy disengagement.
2009-08-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16552/1/MPRA_paper_16552.pdf
Beja, Edsel Jr. (2009): Things are different when you open up: Economic openness, domestic economy, and income.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18013
2019-10-23T05:00:36Z
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18043
2019-09-26T13:55:16Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18043/
Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects
Daco, Gregory
Hernandez Martinez, Fernando
Hsu, Li-Wu
F40 - General
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
Over the past year, there has been considerable debate about how the slowing of the
United States and other major developed economies affects output growth across the
world. The main purpose of this paper is to establish relevant conclusions on how the
U.S., Euro Area and Japan gross domestic product growth affect international business
cycle fluctuations, with the objective of identifying the main factors that influence
spillovers into other countries. Using panel data regression, we conclude that output
growth in the U.S. and Euro area are significant in explaining output growth across
countries. Depending on the specifications, trade linkages play a significant role while
financial linkages with respect to the three regions does not (except in one particular
specification). There are signs of potential omitted variable bias in some regression
indicating that some relevant variables have not been taken into account. There is also
clear evidence of a structural change in the transmission mechanism of shocks after
1985 – since when shocks have become more country-specific.
2009-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18043/1/MPRA_paper_18043.pdf
Daco, Gregory and Hernandez Martinez, Fernando and Hsu, Li-Wu (2009): Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects. Published in: FUNCAS Working Papers Series No. 1988-8767 (March 2009)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:18788
2019-09-28T01:54:03Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18788/
The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Industrialization of Least Developed Countries
Shafaeddin, Mehdi
F40 - General
F00 - General
F10 - General
E00 - General
The author examines the impact of the external shock resulting from recent global economic crisis on industrialization of least developed countries. LDCs are marginalized in international trade and output, yet they are highly integrated into the world economy, suffer from structural weaknesses, balance of payments and fiscal constraints; and they are dependent on production and exports of primary commodities and external sources of finance. The commodity boom of 2003-08 which allowed them to accelerate their GDP and MVA was followed by a “bust”. Food and fuel importing LDCs, in particular, have suffered from both the “boom” and the “bust”.
As a result of the decline in their exports, workers remittances and external sources of finance, most LDCs have suffered from significant decline not only in their GDP and MVA, the closure of a number of their factories, thus unemployment, but also in their investment in production capacity
The exposure of their manufacturing sector to severe external competitive pressure (resulting inter alia from changes in the rules of the game on international competition, increased the need for nurturing their manufacturing sector. Yet, their policy space has diminished due to pre-mature trade liberalization and “market oriented” strategies imposed on them. As a result, despite the acceleration of growth in their MVA during the boom years, most LDCs have faced de-industrialization as compared with their situation in early 1980s.
The global economic crisis is a wake-up call for LDCs to reconsider their long-term industrial and development strategies. There is no “one-size-fit-for-all” strategy, but we have made, in this paper, some common as well as specific policy proposals for industrial development of various groups of LDCs. These countries still have some room to manoeuvre despite their loss of policy space. Further, in order to avoid the risk of human tragedy, particularly in Sub-Saharan countries we calls for changes in WTO rules and reconsideration of policies of IFIs towards LDCs , and resistance to the proposed Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Mehdi Shafaeddin is a development economist with a D.Phil. degree from Oxford University. He is the former Head, Macroeconomics and Development Policies Branch, UNCTAD. He is currently affiliated with the Institute of Economic Research, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland and the author of many articles on trade and industrial policies. His recent work includes Trade Policy at the Crossroads: The Recent Experience of Developing Countries, Palgrave and Competitiveness and Industrial Development, Anthem Press, forthcoming. Comments can be sent to him through M.Shafaeddin@Gmail.com or M.Shafaeddin@Shafaeddin.com.
2009-11-19
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18788/1/MPRA_paper_18788.pdf
Shafaeddin, Mehdi (2009): The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Industrialization of Least Developed Countries.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:21115
2019-09-26T15:01:35Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21115/
Exchange Rate Pass-through in South Africa: Panel Evidence from Individual Goods and Services
Parsley, David
F40 - General
F30 - General
This paper studies exchange rate pass-through in South Africa at the most disaggregated level possible. To accomplish this, two distinct panels of disaggregated data
are employed. The first data set contains annual prices of 158 individual goods and services at the consumer level from 1990 to 2009. The second panel contains quarterly
average import unit-values for twenty-six 8-digit import categories from ten of South Africa’s top trading partners from 1998 Q1 to 2009 Q2. The study finds low pass-through
to consumer prices (between 15 and 25 percent in the two years following an exchange rate change), slow convergence to long run purchasing power parity (6.4 years), and no
apparent tendency for pass-through to have declined during the last twenty years. Relatively high estimates were found for import price pass-through from Brazil and the
United States (75 percent), while Taiwan, Switzerland, India, Great Britain, and Germany were nearer the overall average of 60 percent. As with final consumer prices, there is little evidence of a decline in pass-through to import prices.
2010-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21115/1/MPRA_paper_21115.pdf
Parsley, David (2010): Exchange Rate Pass-through in South Africa: Panel Evidence from Individual Goods and Services.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22521
2019-09-29T08:56:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443633
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3431
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443634
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493338
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22521/
Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population
Harashima, Taiji
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
I30 - General
F40 - General
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
D64 - Altruism ; Philanthropy
I38 - Government Policy ; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
E20 - General
This paper studies social welfare in a heterogeneous population under the criteria of efficiency and sustainable heterogeneity. As is well known, heterogeneity in time preference results in substantial inequality. This paper shows that, even if households have heterogeneous preferences, there is a balanced growth path on which all the optimality conditions of all heterogeneous households are equally and indefinitely satisfied, and heterogeneity is sustainable on this path. The existence of a unique sustainable path will shed new light on social welfare issues, but this path cannot necessarily be naturally obtained by relying only on markets. Sustainable heterogeneity is politically fragile and requires rational―not unconditional―sacrifice and altruism, and interventions by the authority are justified. Sustainable heterogeneity indicates that globalization should be accompanied by measures that support developing countries and that a GDP modified for measures of sustainable heterogeneity may more correctly measure people’s “happiness.” However, it also indicates that inequality is necessary for sustainability and a unique sustainable level of inequality exists.
2010-05-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22521/1/MPRA_paper_22521.pdf
Harashima, Taiji (2010): Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:22553
2019-09-28T22:29:24Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22553/
Smooth Breaks and Nonlinear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates
Dimitris, Christopoulos
Miguel, Leon-Ledesma
F40 - General
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
The recent literature on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has emphasized the role of two phenomena that may lead to the rejection of the PPP hypothesis: structural breaks and nonlinear adjustment induced by transaction costs. These two hypotheses are analyzed separately in the literature. We develop tests for unit roots that account jointly for structural breaks and nonlinear adjustment. Structural breaks are modeled by means of a Fourier function that allows for infrequent smooth temporary mean changes and is hence compatible with long-run PPP. Nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an ESTAR model. Our tests present good finite sample properties. The tests are applied to a set of 15 OECD countries’ RERs and are able to reject the null of a unit root in 14 cases. The breaks are usually associated with the great appreciation and later depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s and the ESTAR adjustment appears to play an important role.
2009
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22553/1/MPRA_paper_22553.pdf
Dimitris, Christopoulos and Miguel, Leon-Ledesma (2009): Smooth Breaks and Nonlinear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23522
2019-09-30T06:13:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23522/
La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo
Calabria, Alejandro A.
F40 - General
E60 - General
The prices of most commodities have been rising steadily for more than four years. This phenomenon, which has been taking place for a longer period than usual, has been favourable to several countries and economic sectors. Many economies based on the primary sector have been suddenly benefited and have increased their incomes considerably due to the export of these products. In case this international
context which highly favours these countries started to reverse, the situation for them would be more difficult. The allocation and utilizations of these “extraordinary” incomes which result from the price of the basic products being extremely above its historical average are of vital importance to the evolution of the economy of each country. If said incomes were used orderly, anticipating that the international context can vary unexpectedly, the economic changes that the country will suffer when the situation
reversed would be moderate. On the contrary, if these incomes were not used sensibly or bearing in mind that they will not last forever, when the situation reversed the
consequences in the economy would be, at least, very complicated. Analyzing the fiscal accounts and the relationship between Argentina and the external sector -trading,credit, investment- it can be clearly seen that Argentina is following the last option. Public expenditure has evolved practically keeping pace with the price of commodities. The fact that both surpluses -commercial and fiscal- are highly dependent on the international price of the raw materials is alarming. Argentina’s increasing isolation from the international credit channels complicates this situation even more. The aim of this
paper is to find the possibilities and threats that are faced by Argentina’s economy and point out some policies that should be implemented in the short run so that when the
favourable international context reversed the consequences would not be so harmful.
2008-11-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23522/1/MPRA_paper_23522.pdf
Calabria, Alejandro A. (2008): La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:23565
2019-10-11T06:31:58Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23565/
La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo
Calabria, Alejandro A.
F40 - General
E60 - General
The prices of most commodities have been rising steadily for more than four years. This phenomenon, which has been taking place for a longer period than usual, has been favourable to several countries and economic sectors. Many economies based on the primary sector have been suddenly benefited and have increased their incomes considerably due to the export of these products. In case this international
context which highly favours these countries started to reverse, the situation for them would be more difficult. The allocation and utilizations of these “extraordinary” incomes which result from the price of the basic products being extremely above its historical average are of vital importance to the evolution of the economy of each country. If said incomes were used orderly, anticipating that the international context can vary unexpectedly, the economic changes that the country will suffer when the situation
reversed would be moderate. On the contrary, if these incomes were not used sensibly or bearing in mind that they will not last forever, when the situation reversed the
consequences in the economy would be, at least, very complicated. Analyzing the fiscal accounts and the relationship between Argentina and the external sector -trading,credit, investment- it can be clearly seen that Argentina is following the last option. Public expenditure has evolved practically keeping pace with the price of commodities. The fact that both surpluses -commercial and fiscal- are highly dependent on the international price of the raw materials is alarming. Argentina’s increasing isolation from the international credit channels complicates this situation even more. The aim of this
paper is to find the possibilities and threats that are faced by Argentina’s economy and point out some policies that should be implemented in the short run so that when the
favourable international context reversed the consequences would not be so harmful.
2008-11-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23565/1/MPRA_paper_23565.pdf
Calabria, Alejandro A. (2008): La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24012
2019-10-08T04:53:03Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463133
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473238
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24012/
Comerţul exterior scufundă barca economiei româneşti
Georgescu, George
F40 - General
F15 - Economic Integration
F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations
G28 - Government Policy and Regulation
Under the circumstances of rising and persistent deficits in the Romanian foreign trade, the contribution of net exports to the GDP growth remains negative, in 2005 halving practically the domestic demand increase. One factor behind this trend is the IPT (Inward Processing Trade) which doesn’t seem perceived by the Romanian government and monetary authorities. Sustaining the final exports by adequate financial incentives has become of vital importance for the amelioration of the trade balance and for the improvement of the international position of Romania.
2006-04-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24012/1/MPRA_paper_24012.pdf
Georgescu, George (2006): Comerţul exterior scufundă barca economiei româneşti. Published in: Revista Bilant No. 20 (15 May 2006): pp. 33-39.
ro
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24115
2019-09-27T17:41:08Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433532
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24115/
LES déterminants du taux de change au Maroc : Une étude empirique
El Bouhadi, A.
Elkhider, Abdelkader
Kchirid, El Mustapha
Idriss, El Abbassi
F40 - General
C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
One of the most important instruments of economic policy of the opened countries is the exchange rate. It is considered both a mean of monetary regulation and a tool of outside competitiveness. Morocco plans to adopt the floating exchange rate regime, in the end of 2009. Indeed, the question which arises today is to know what type of floating exchange rate regime will be applied. Under the economic, technical and institutional factors, we ask if Morocco is ready and able to adopt this regime. In the light of this report, this paper will deal with the impact of the exchange rate policy on the real economy in Morocco through an empirical model called « The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate » supported by Clark and MacDonald (1997). Firstly, our investigation deals with the efficiency of exchange rate policy adopted by Morocco, secondly, it deals with the capacity of Dirham to resist to the shocks caused by the misalignments and finely, with the Moroccan monetary authorities’ capacity to manage the existing exchange regime. Under using the cointegration method, the error correction model and the analysis of the shocks by using the method of the decomposition of variance, our results confirm that the dynamics of the exchange rate in Morocco is determined by the variables such as the terms of trade, the foreign assets and the foreign debt. Similarly, in terms of short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate and in the analysis of the shocks, the supply and demand dynamics the dirham seems determining.
2008-11-17
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24115/1/MPRA_paper_24115.pdf
El Bouhadi, A. and Elkhider, Abdelkader and Kchirid, El Mustapha and Idriss, El Abbassi (2008): LES déterminants du taux de change au Maroc : Une étude empirique.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:24233
2019-10-03T01:22:26Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493330
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443633
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3431
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443634
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493338
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24233/
Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population
Harashima, Taiji
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
I30 - General
F40 - General
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
D64 - Altruism ; Philanthropy
I38 - Government Policy ; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
E20 - General
This paper studies social welfare in a heterogeneous population under the criteria of efficiency and sustainable heterogeneity. As is well known, heterogeneity in time preference results in substantial inequality. This paper shows that, even if households have heterogeneous preferences, there is a balanced growth path on which all the optimality conditions of all heterogeneous households are equally and indefinitely satisfied, and heterogeneity is sustainable on this path. The existence of a unique sustainable path will shed new light on social welfare issues, but this path cannot necessarily be naturally obtained by relying only on markets. Sustainable heterogeneity is politically fragile and requires rational―not unconditional―sacrifice and altruism, and interventions by the authority are justified. Sustainable heterogeneity indicates that globalization should be accompanied by measures that support developing countries and that a GDP modified for measures of sustainable heterogeneity may more correctly measure people’s “happiness.” However, it also indicates that inequality is necessary for sustainability and a unique sustainable level of inequality exists.
2010-08-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24233/2/MPRA_paper_24233.pdf
Harashima, Taiji (2010): Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26029
2019-09-28T09:24:29Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3437
7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3338
7375626A656374733D4E:4E31:4E3136
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26029/
Apertura y Productividad Total de los Factores: Análisis de la contemporaneidad en los quiebres estructurales para América Latina y el Caribe
Gonzalez, German Hector
Delbianco, Fernando Andres
F40 - General
O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O38 - Government Policy
N16 - Latin America ; Caribbean
We study the existence of structural break in TFP and in several indicators of openness for a sample of 20 Latin American and Caribbean economies for the period 1960-2005. For this purpose, it has been used the test of Zivot and Andrews (1992) on series of TFP computed from a development accounting exercise (Hsieh and Klenow, 2010) and alternative measures of openness with different characters: openness policies, openness as result, and measure of deviation (Wacziarg, 2001). The accumulation of cases, both potential and significant breaks in TFP are in line with the Oil Crisis of 1973/4 and 1979/80, and the Mexican Crisis of 1982. The cases of breaks on TFP during the consolidation process of openness in the region (1985-95) are not significant. Shocks in openness seem to have effects on the rate of growth of TFP
2010-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26029/1/MPRA_paper_26029.pdf
Gonzalez, German Hector and Delbianco, Fernando Andres (2010): Apertura y Productividad Total de los Factores: Análisis de la contemporaneidad en los quiebres estructurales para América Latina y el Caribe.
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:26541
2019-09-26T11:54:07Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433731
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26541/
Coopetitive game solutions for the eurozone economy
Carfì, D.
Magaudda, M.
Schilirò, D.
F40 - General
C71 - Cooperative Games
This paper aims at providing, through a game theory model of coopetition, feasible solutions in a cooperative perspective to the problems that affect the Eurozone economy after the Greek crisis. In particular, it focuses on stability and growth as the primary goals, which
should drive the Eurozone economy in consequence of the financial and economic crisis of the Greek economy with its effects throughout the Euro area.
By means of two coopetitive models derived by an original general analytical framework of coopetition, we show in our paper the strategies that could bring to feasible solutions in a cooperative perspective between Germany and Greece, where these feasible solutions aim at “sharing the pie fairly”, by offering a win-win outcome for both countries, within a growth path represented by a non-zero sum game.
A remarkable analytical result of the paper consists in the determination of the winwin solution by a new selection method on the transferable utility Pareto boundary of the
coopetitive game.
2010-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26541/1/MPRA_paper_26541.pdf
Carfì, D. and Magaudda, M. and Schilirò, D. (2010): Coopetitive game solutions for the eurozone economy.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:27138
2019-10-02T10:49:54Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433731
7375626A656374733D45:4536
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27138/
Crisis in the Euro area: coopetitive game solutions as new policy tools
Carfì, David
Schilirò, Daniele
F40 - General
C71 - Cooperative Games
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
The crisis within the Euro area have become frequent during 2010. First was the Greek economy to face a default problem of its sovreign debt, in November it was Ireland who has been in a serious financial situation at the verge of collapse causing difficulties to the euro.
In this contribution we focus on the Greek crisis and we suggest, through a model of coopetition based on game theory and conceived at a macro level, feasible solutions in a cooperative perspective for the divergent interests which drive the economic policies in Germany and Greece, with the aim of improving the position of Greece, Germany and the whole Euro area and also giving a contribution to expand the set of macroeconomic policy tools.
By means of our general analytical framework of coopetition, we show the strategies that could bring to feasible solutions in a cooperative perspective for Germany and Greece, where these feasible solutions aim at offering a win-win outcome for both countries, letting them to share the pie fairly within a growth path represented by a non-zero sum game.
A remarkable analytical result of our work consists in the determination of the win-win solution by a new selection method on the transferable utility Pareto boundary of the coopetitive game.
2010-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27138/1/MPRA_paper_27138.pdf
Carfì, David and Schilirò, Daniele (2010): Crisis in the Euro area: coopetitive game solutions as new policy tools.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:27466
2019-09-29T07:12:19Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27466/
Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members
Ketenci, Natalya
Uz, Idil
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper considers the major determinants of the current account in the new members of the EU. It examines the long-run and short-run impact of real exchange rate, investment, private and public savings on current account. The bounds testing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is used and the results indicate that twin deficit exists; in another words, government budget deficit shocks have led to deficit in current accounts in Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia for the considered period. At the same time, empirical evidence was found that private savings, investment and real exchange rate are key variables as well, causing changes in the current account in the long-run as well as in the short-run. Finally, stability tests were applied to the model indicating no evidence of any structural instability in the model of these countries.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27466/1/MPRA_paper_27466.pdf
Ketenci, Natalya and Uz, Idil (2010): Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:28448
2019-10-05T03:45:24Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4630
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28448/
Efecte ale volatilității cursului de schimb asupra exporturilor
Ghiba, Nicolae
F40 - General
F0 - General
F10 - General
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper reviews a part of the most important literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility over exports. The first section reviews particularities and limits in the literature about the connection between the two variables, while the second part reviews the effects of exchange rate volatility over exports volume in different circumstances. Currency depreciation, normally, should stimulate exports, because they become cheaper to foreign products and by contrast, appreciation leads to export decrease. Our main results show that the theorethic area may be contradicted by practical cases.
2010-12-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28448/1/MPRA_paper_28448.pdf
Ghiba, Nicolae (2010): Efecte ale volatilității cursului de schimb asupra exporturilor.
ro
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29313
2019-10-06T04:43:00Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453232
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3139
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453137
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3136
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463232
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3135
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433530
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463137
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453233
7375626A656374733D4A:4A36:4A3631
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29313/
Latvijas iestāšanās Eiropas Savienībā ekonomiskā efekta novērtēšana
Skribans, Valerijs
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity
O19 - International Linkages to Development ; Role of International Organizations
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F15 - Economic Integration
F00 - General
F40 - General
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F22 - International Migration
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
F20 - General
C50 - General
F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
E23 - Production
J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers
E00 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E20 - General
For Latvia with incoming into the European Union big opportunities in the international markets have opened. Paper purpose is to investigate influence of international integration processes on development of economy of Latvia. In paper various indicators of a national economy before and after incoming into EU are compared.
In paper it is defined that joining to EU has increased for Latvia net grants from EU budget. But grants still do not promote development of economy of Latvia, but more stimulate development of internal demand.
For demand gain satisfaction, in the conditions of poorly developed internal producing, from abroad the various goods are imported into Latvia, negative difference of export and import is increase.
Also inflow of the capital to Latvia after incoming into EU is not used for positive changes in internal economy, and directed to the branches related with finance movings. Actually the industries have not felt essential inflow of the capital. After incoming into EU Latvia has started to export labour force. As a result of migration of labour in Latvia the rate of unemployment has decreased, the wages are grown, expenses on a labour that has grown, that reduced an export potential of internal products.
EU grants, capital inflow, gain of wages has caused an inflation gain in Latvia. Considering that together with inflation purchasing capacity of inhabitants has grown, it is possible to draw a conclusion that the population well-being has grown.
These processes mainly have short-term character. Migration will decrease, considering a gain of wages or because of reduction of labour resources; inflow of the speculative capital will stop because of insufficiency of reliable pledges. It is possible to assert that they will stop, when the standard of living in EU and Latvia will be approximately identical, i.e. in the end of cohesion process in EU.
Most stabile is relation of grants and import. Grants are provided to reduce dependence of the state on import but on the contrary, grants increase import volume. Latvia still cannot find the specialisation in EU and in the global markets. Therefore it became dependent on grants of EU and on international help. Definition of specialisation and an effective using of grants could change situation and promote economy development in Latvia.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29313/1/MPRA_paper_29313.pdf
Skribans, Valerijs (2010): Latvijas iestāšanās Eiropas Savienībā ekonomiskā efekta novērtēšana. Published in: RTU zinātniskie raksti , Vol. 20, No. 3: Ekonomika un uzņēmējdarbiba (2010): pp. 108-116.
lv
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:29537
2019-09-30T15:52:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29537/
The Capital Inflow “Problem” Revisited
Reinhart, Carmen
Reinhart, Vincent
F40 - General
F30 - General
Capital inflows can be a mixed blessing, especially in economies with thin domestic financial markets and when driven by investors with a short-term focus. Many levers of policy can be applied to resist the effects of the inflows. One that has been widely relied upon has been currency intervention. Key to that appears to be keeping their bilateral exchange rate stable vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. But this requires them to resist currency appreciation and accumulate dollar reserves when the anchor country is mired in financial problems and keeps monetary policy accommodative in an unprecedented manner. The willingness of emerging market economies to limit exchange rate fluctuations will be tested as monetary policy in advanced economies remains geared toward domestic considerations. Meanwhile, some advanced economies will be looking to finance large deficits and to roll over large debts. In that environment, prior reticence toward capital controls and other restrictions on finance may well lift. For emerging markets, this insulates them from monetary policy in advanced economies that may be inappropriate for domestic circumstances. For advanced economies, this limits the competition for the debt they dearly have to sell. In such a world, the policy tools we discussed will be increasingly relied upon.
2011-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29537/1/MPRA_paper_29537.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (2011): The Capital Inflow “Problem” Revisited.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:30611
2019-09-30T12:19:24Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3535
7375626A656374733D41:4131:413133
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30611/
Les rendez-vous manqués de l'économie de la Tunisie 7-Novembriste
Mabrouk, Mohamed B.R.
F40 - General
O55 - Africa
A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values
Two major changes have affected the Tunisian economy during the 7-November period: the change of the economic system on the one hand and the change of the demographic structure on the other. The change of the economic system consists in the adoption of liberalism and free-trade. Although, at the beginning of the studied period, this change has improved the external economic balance and the standard of living, comparison with other countries and also the drift of the external deficit shows that the country has failed to exploit the opportunity offered by free-trade. A more decisive opportunity has also been lost: the "demographic dividend" offered by the relative decline of the economically unproductive, that is to say, children and the elderly. Properly exploited, it should have enabled the country to recover his savings to pay off its external debt and capitalize for the future which should see the share of unproductive population increase again due to aging. Two interrelated reasons have caused this failure. One is overconsumption of imported luxury goods. The other is the declining economic role of the state. Along with comments on the desirable type of economic system, some measures, mostly Keynesian, are suggested to revive the economy. Among those measures: limiting imports of frivolous goods, reforming the foreign exchange system, reforming taxation of households and of foreign trade, a tighter democratic control of state resources and public markets and boosting state investment in productive areas with high social and environmental impact.
2011-05-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30611/1/MPRA_paper_30611.pdf
Mabrouk, Mohamed B.R. (2011): Les rendez-vous manqués de l'économie de la Tunisie 7-Novembriste.
fr
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:30930
2019-09-26T22:00:12Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30930/
After ten years the Russian crisis how IMF intervention might be evaluated?
Sulimierska, Malgorzata
F40 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E40 - General
The ongoing global financial crisis has become prominently visible since September 2008. This crisis affected the whole world and enhanced the importance of policy implementation to mitigate financial crises in future. Many academics blamed insufficient domestic regulation as the reason of crises, others pointed to the lack of overseas financial regulation and inappropriate actions by international organizations, such as the IMF and World Bank. This whole discussion encouraged to look back and analyzed a previous crisis in smallest countries such as Russia. This paper evidently shows the inefficiency of IMF policy during the Russia Crisis in 1998 by implementing a new monetary balance-of-payment model in Russian data. This model identified the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and international economic policy implications on the likelihood and the timing of the currency crisis in Russia. For the period from December 1995 to December 1998 it was found that, the increase in domestic credit growth gradually undermined confidence in the fixed exchange rate regime. The most dangerous point was at the end of 1998, when the collapse probability was above 90 percent. This result ambiguously questioned the IMF’s July packet 1998 and proved the political aspects of this financial help.
2011-04-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30930/2/MPRA_paper_30930.pdf
Sulimierska, Malgorzata (2011): After ten years the Russian crisis how IMF intervention might be evaluated? Forthcoming in:
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:31891
2019-10-01T14:00:17Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D44:4437
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433738
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433731
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433732
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31891/
Crisis in the Euro area: coopetitive game solutions as new policy tools
Carfì, David
Schilirò, Daniele
F40 - General
D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
C78 - Bargaining Theory ; Matching Theory
C71 - Cooperative Games
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
C72 - Noncooperative Games
The crisis within the euro area have become frequent during 2010. First was the Greek economy to face a default problem of its sovreign debt, in November it was Ireland who has been in a serious financial situation at the verge of collapse causing difficulties to the euro. In this contribution we focus on the Greek crisis and we suggest, through a model of coopetition based on game theory and conceived at a macro level, feasible solutions in a
cooperative perspective for the divergent interests which drive the economic policies in Germany and Greece, with the aim of improving the position of Greece, Germany and the whole euro area, also making a contribution to expand the set of macroeconomic policy tools. By means of our general
analytical framework of coopetition, we show the strategies that could bring to feasible solutions in a cooperative perspective for Germany and Greece,where these feasible solutions aim at offering a win-win outcome for both
countries, letting them to share the pie fairly within a growth path represented by a non-zero sum game. A remarkable analytical result of our work consists in the determination of the win-win solution by a new selection
method on the transferable utility Pareto boundary of the coopetitive game.
2010-11
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31891/1/MPRA_paper_31891.pdf
Carfì, David and Schilirò, Daniele (2010): Crisis in the Euro area: coopetitive game solutions as new policy tools.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32255
2019-10-04T06:10:45Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32255/
The Dynamics of Housing Returns in Singapore: How Important are the International Transmission Mechanisms?
Chang, Kuang Liang
Chen, Nan Kuang
Leung, Charles Ka Yui
F40 - General
E30 - General
G10 - General
This paper studies the dynamics of housing returns in Singapore. We first extract the movements of Singapore's economic aggregates that are free from foreign (U.S. and rest of the world) factors, and then examine the determinants of its housing returns. We find that both the domestic variables (such as GDP growth rate, volume of international trade, and exchange rate) and U.S. variables (such as the Federal Fund Rate and the External Finance Premium) are important during the boom regime. The bust regime is very different. Directions for future research are discussed.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32255/1/MPRA_paper_32255.pdf
Chang, Kuang Liang and Chen, Nan Kuang and Leung, Charles Ka Yui (2011): The Dynamics of Housing Returns in Singapore: How Important are the International Transmission Mechanisms?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32388
2019-10-01T18:22:23Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32388/
Why transition economies did worse than others in 2008-09 recession?
Popov, Vladimir
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
While developing countries as a group did better than developed countries in 2008-09 recession, transition economies – former communist countries – experienced the largest reduction of output. Out of 42 countries that experienced negative growth in 2007-09, 13 were transition economies. In fact, 4 out of 5 most affected economies were former communist countries (Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Lithuania).
The hypothesis is that these transition countries (1) suffered more than the others from the sudden outflow of capital and (2) did not manage this outflow particularly well.
The rule of thumb was that large outflows of capital, especially coupled with negative trade shocks, suppressed economic activity. But if the shocks were relatively small (up to 3% of GDP change in trade and capital account from Q2 2008 to an average of subsequent 3 quarters), it was possible to mitigate them through devaluation (not allowing foreign exchange reserves to drop by the same amount). If the shocks were large, even devaluation did not allow to avoid output fall.
2011-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32388/1/MPRA_paper_32388.pdf
Popov, Vladimir (2011): Why transition economies did worse than others in 2008-09 recession?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32522
2019-09-27T01:10:10Z
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7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453232
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7375626A656374733D46:4632:463232
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7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
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7375626A656374733D46:4631:463137
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7375626A656374733D4A:4A36:4A3631
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7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32522/
Latvia’s incoming in European Union economic effect estimation
Skribans, Valerijs
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity
O19 - International Linkages to Development ; Role of International Organizations
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F15 - Economic Integration
F00 - General
F40 - General
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F22 - International Migration
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
F20 - General
C50 - General
F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
E23 - Production
J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers
E00 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E20 - General
Joining the European Union big opportunities in the international markets have opened for Latvia.
Paper purpose is to investigate influence of international integration processes on development of
economy of Latvia. In the paper Latvian economic indicators before and after entering the EU are compeered.
Latvia's incoming in EU increased the amount of received means from structural and cohesion
funds, removed the trading barriers, increases foreign investments, reduced unemployment, increased labor
migration, and increased prices and population purchasing power.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32522/1/MPRA_paper_32522.pdf
Skribans, Valerijs (2010): Latvia’s incoming in European Union economic effect estimation. Published in: BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT AND EDUCATION 2010 No. Contemporary Regional Issues Conference Proceedings (2010)
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32776
2019-09-27T00:10:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32776/
In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns
Chang, Kuang Liang
Chen, Nan Kuang
Leung, Charles Ka Yui
F40 - General
E30 - General
G10 - General
We examine how the fluctuations in financial and housing markets in U.S. affect the asset returns and GDP in Hong Kong. In contrast to the results from linear specifications, which concludes that the U.S. and Hong Kong are virtually delinked in terms of the asset markets, our regime-switching models indicate that the unexpected shock of US stock returns, followed by the TED spread, has the most significant effect on HK asset returns and GDP, typically in the regime with high return and low volatility. For the in-sample one-step-ahead forecasting, US Term spread stands out to be the best predictor.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32776/1/MPRA_paper_32776.pdf
Chang, Kuang Liang and Chen, Nan Kuang and Leung, Charles Ka Yui (2011): In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32820
2019-10-05T18:12:50Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463137
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32820/
Examining responsiveness of India’s trade flows to exchange rate movements
Shingal, Anirudh
F40 - General
F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Determinants of trade flows have always attracted researchers. In this paper, we model monthly trade flows in India over January 2000 – December 2007 in a bid to gauge their responsiveness to exchange rate movements. Capital account and overall BOP surplus have led the Indian Rupee (INR) to appreciate and forex reserves to accumulate. In so far as the RBI intervenes to stem this forex accretion by the net purchase of USD, it puts further pressure on the INR to appreciate. It therefore becomes important to study the response of the current account to these changes in the exchange rate. We employ standard empirical estimations of India’s export supply and import demand functions using data from the Reserve Bank of India. We also assess the short-term dynamics of these trade flows through error correction models. Finally, we estimate vector auto regression models to gauge the extent of contemporaneous interaction between trade flows and the explanatory variables in the system.
2007-12-27
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32820/1/MPRA_paper_32820.pdf
Shingal, Anirudh (2007): Examining responsiveness of India’s trade flows to exchange rate movements.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:32926
2019-10-07T22:35:57Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4330:433030
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32926/
The macroeconomic implication of exchange rate regimes
Josheski, Dushko
Ljubica, Cikarska
Cane, Koteski
F40 - General
C00 - General
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This study investigates the relation between macroeconomic variables such as real GDP growth, inflation, unemployment rate, trade deficit and the exchange regimes. The idea is to explore whether the macroeconomic indicators give better result when are under the influence of fixed or fluctuating exchange rates. In order to obtain relevant results, we took 5 countries with fixed and 5 countries with floating exchange rates.
The paper also concerns the Macedonian exchange rate regimes. Here the focus is put on two periods. The first one is from 1993- 1995 when the country had fluctuating exchange rate. The second period is from 1995 till now -2011, when Macedonia has been implementing a regime of fixed "pegged" exchange rate.
2011-08-21
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32926/1/MPRA_paper_32926.pdf
Josheski, Dushko and Ljubica, Cikarska and Cane, Koteski (2011): The macroeconomic implication of exchange rate regimes.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:33995
2019-09-28T02:56:30Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33995/
The economic and monetary union vs. shifts in competitiveness of member states
Kowalski, Tadeusz
Pietrzykowski, Maciej
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
The paper deals with changes in the competitiveness of 12 countries forming the euro area in 1999-2000. These changes are analyzed using various macroeconomic indicators (real exchange rate, trade ratios, labor market and economic output performance). Due to the different levels of development of the countries forming the zone, changes in competitiveness do not extend uniformly. The paper ends with conclusions.
The aim of this paper is to assess changes in the relative competitiveness of 12 countries forming the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) between 1999-2009. Greece was the only EU country which had not yet been accepted in the Union in 1999 and later joined the Eurozone in 2001. Despite the time difference, it was assumed that by including this economy in the analyzed EMU 12 group it would allow for better comprehension of the influence of monetary solutions and general economic policy within this integration grouping on the relative competitiveness of its particular members.
Section 1 is devoted to a brief presentation of assumptions and expectations regarding the EMU. Section 2 examines real effective exchange rates (REERs). Along with the standard literature, it is assumed that REERs are important summary measures of shifts in competitiveness. Section 3 is devoted to trade developments; they are linked to the REERs. We present and analyze gross measures such as exports to the gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, external exports, export/import ratio, the share of EMU country exports in world exports and the role of high-tech trade. Section 4 deals with the shifts in labor force performance and section 5 is devoted to the most comprehensive measures which are GDP and gross national income (GNI) developments. The paper closes with conclusions.
2010
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33995/1/MPRA_paper_33995.pdf
Kowalski, Tadeusz and Pietrzykowski, Maciej (2010): The economic and monetary union vs. shifts in competitiveness of member states. Published in: Working papers, Faculty of International Business and Economics No. WP/2010/05 (2010): pp. 1-30.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:34565
2019-09-27T15:58:10Z
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7375626A656374733D46:4631:463136
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453232
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3139
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453231
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463030
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453234
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453137
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3136
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463232
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453531
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3135
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3131
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433533
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463230
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433530
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463137
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453233
7375626A656374733D4A:4A36:4A3631
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34565/
Development of System Dynamic Model of Latvia’s Economic Integration in the EU
Skribans, Valerijs
F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity
O19 - International Linkages to Development ; Role of International Organizations
E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F15 - Economic Integration
F00 - General
F40 - General
E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
F22 - International Migration
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
F20 - General
C50 - General
F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
E23 - Production
J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers
E00 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E20 - General
Joining the European Union big opportunities in the international markets have opened
for Latvia. Paper purpose is to investigate influence of international integration
processes on development of economy of Latvia. Latvia's incoming in EU increased the
amount of received means from structural and cohesion funds, removed the trading
barriers, increases foreign investments, reduced unemployment and increased labor
migration. In the paper the system dynamics model, which describes integration of the
Latvian economy into EU, is developed. In the model international financial flows
connected with Latvia and EU; import, its relation to internal producing; and migration
processes are considered. Model functioning is measured considering various scenarios
of situation development. The developed model can be used not only in the analysis of
Latvia’s economic integration in the EU, but on its basis it is possible to create models
of regional cohesion in Europe.
2011
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34565/1/MPRA_paper_34565.pdf
Skribans, Valerijs (2011): Development of System Dynamic Model of Latvia’s Economic Integration in the EU. Published in: Proceedings of the 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (2011): pp. 1-16.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:35598
2019-10-08T16:32:05Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
7375626A656374733D48:4835:483536
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35598/
Foreign direct investment, cost of war and trade in Pakistan
Syed, Hasanat Shah
Hasnat, Hafsa
Li, Junjian
F40 - General
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
H56 - National Security and War
This paper uses macro panel data and gravity model to examine the impact of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) inflows from 20 trade partners and increasing war cost in Pakistan on import, export and trade deficit. The paper compares the effect and inflows of FDI in Pakistan before and after joining the war on terror in 2001. This research work confirms the complementary relationship between FDI and export and FDI and imports, however, the results of FDI impact on trade deficit is insignificant. Similarly, the impact of war cost on exports, imports and trade deficit is not significant.
2011-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35598/1/MPRA_paper_35598.pdf
Syed, Hasanat Shah and Hasnat, Hafsa and Li, Junjian (2011): Foreign direct investment, cost of war and trade in Pakistan.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36182
2019-09-27T02:52:58Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D51:5134:513430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36182/
Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade?
Chen, Shiu-Sheng
Hsu, Kai-Wei
F40 - General
Q40 - General
This paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal in globalization. Using a large annual panel data set covering 84 countries all over the world from 1984 to 2008, we investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on international trade, namely exports and imports. We present strong and robust evidence that international trade flows will be lower when oil prices fluctuate significantly. We therefore conclude that oil price volatility hurts globalization.
2012-01-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36182/1/MPRA_paper_36182.pdf
Chen, Shiu-Sheng and Hsu, Kai-Wei (2012): Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade? Forthcoming in:
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36339
2019-09-28T00:29:20Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473238
7375626A656374733D47:4730:473031
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36339/
Impactul crizei globale asupra structurii comerţului exterior al României
Georgescu, George
F15 - Economic Integration
F40 - General
F10 - General
G28 - Government Policy and Regulation
G01 - Financial Crises
Under the global crisis impact the structure of international trade flows witnessed significant changes. In the case of Romania, paradoxically for an emerging country, in terms of product composition during 2007-2010, the share of capital goods decreased in total imports and increased in total exports, while the share of intermediate goods recorded an opposite development. In terms of competitiveness, no evidence of significant changes has been found, the most important export chapters having comparative advantages connected with the processing trade operations. Obviously, Romania lacks an export strategy able to sustain the national exporters on new foreign markets and reducing the trade balance deficits.
2012-01-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36339/1/MPRA_paper_36339.pdf
Georgescu, George (2012): Impactul crizei globale asupra structurii comerţului exterior al României.
ro
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36563
2019-09-30T10:33:10Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36563/
Impactul investitiilor straine directe asupra exporturilor din Romania
Stefanescu, Răzvan
Dumitriu, Ramona
Nistor, Costel
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
This paper explores the impact of the foreign direct investment on the Romanian exports. We employ cointegration techniques and a Vector Error Correction Model to study the relations between the two variables. We find a significant influence of the foreign direct investment on the exports. Instead, the impact of exports on the foreign direct investment is rather weak.
2010-08-19
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36563/1/MPRA_paper_36563.pdf
Stefanescu, Răzvan and Dumitriu, Ramona and Nistor, Costel (2010): Impactul investitiilor straine directe asupra exporturilor din Romania. Published in: Conferinta Stiintifica Internationala "Rolul investitiilor in dezvoltarea durabila a economiei nationale in contextul integrarii europene" Chisinau, 2010 (25 October 2010): pp. 39-43.
ro
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:36581
2019-09-26T22:32:38Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36581/
Exports as an engine for the economic growth: the case of Romania
Dumitriu, Ramona
Stefanescu, Razvan
Nistor, Costel
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
This paper explores the dynamic relation between the exports and the gross domestic product from Romania. We employ the Johansen cointegration procedure and the Granger causality test to identify the interactions between the two variables. We find no cointegration but a unidirectional causality from exports to gross domestic product. We conclude the implementation of an export promotion strategy could be a solution for the Romanian national economy to surpass the actual severe recession.
2010-05-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36581/1/MPRA_paper_36581.pdf
Dumitriu, Ramona and Stefanescu, Razvan and Nistor, Costel (2010): Exports as an engine for the economic growth: the case of Romania. Published in: Vanguard Scientific Instruments in Management , Vol. Volume, (2 February 2011): pp. 303-308.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37025
2019-09-26T12:35:56Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D48:4832:483235
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433232
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37025/
Subsidy and export: Malaysian case
Abu Mansor, Shazali
Abdul Karim, Bakri
F40 - General
H25 - Business Taxes and Subsidies
C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
This paper examines the long-run relationship between subsidies and export for the case of Malaysia using annual data from 1976 to 2010 and cointegration test. The results show that the subsidies significantly influence export in the long-run. This support the argument by the non-neo-classical economists’ propagation that export promotion requires a pro-active government role in the economy. This study has shed some lights that subsidy may not be detrimental to an economy.
2011-12-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37025/1/MPRA_paper_37025.pdf
Abu Mansor, Shazali and Abdul Karim, Bakri (2011): Subsidy and export: Malaysian case.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37631
2019-10-01T03:26:01Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3130
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37631/
Are financial benefits of financial globalization questionable until greater domestic financial development has taken place?
Simplice A, Asongu
F40 - General
F30 - General
O10 - General
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
Purpose – The issue of which financial initial conditions are necessary to materialize the benefits of financial globalization remains open to debate in the literature. In this paper, we try to put some empirical structure on the concept of financial threshold conditions in order to give policymakers guidance on the Kose et al.(2011) and Henry(2007) hypothesis. Its object is to assess if financial benefits of financial globalization are questionable until greater domestic financial development has taken place in developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach – In framing the financial dimension in a more concrete and tractable manner, we probe into the concerns of how domestic financial initial dynamics of depth(economic and financial systems), efficiency(banking and financial systems), activity (banking and financial systems) and size play-out in the financial development benefits of financial globalization. The estimation approach consists of assessing the impact of financial globalization through-out the conditional distributions of domestic financial development dynamics.
Findings – The introduction of previously missing financial dimensions into the debate generates a number of important findings. Only financial initial(threshold) conditions in depth and size are necessary to materialize the benefits of financial globalization. Domestic dynamics of efficiency and activity(credit) do not confirm the hypothesis.
Practical implications – Depending on the context of sampled countries, the appropriate role of policy has always been either to stem the tide of capital flows or encourage them. Policymakers who have been viewing their challenges exclusively from the later perspective for benefits in growth(finance) might be getting the financial dynamics badly wrong.
Originality/value – Blanket financial development policies may not reap the financial benefits of financial globalization until domestic financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size are critically considered. The introduction of the last three previously missing components in the literature sheds more light on the globalization-development nexus.
2012-03-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37631/1/MPRA_paper_37631.pdf
Simplice A, Asongu (2012): Are financial benefits of financial globalization questionable until greater domestic financial development has taken place?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37855
2019-10-04T18:58:04Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433731
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3532
7375626A656374733D43:4337:433732
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37855/
A framework of coopetitive games:applications to the Greek crisis
Schilirò, Daniele
Carfì, David
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F40 - General
C71 - Cooperative Games
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
O52 - Europe
C72 - Noncooperative Games
In the present work we propose an original analytical model of coopetitive game. We shall apply this analytical model of coopetition (based on normal form game theory) to the
Greek crisis, while conceiving this game theory model at a macro level. We construct two realizations of such model, trying to represent possible realistic macro-economic scenarios of the Germany-Greek strategic interaction. We shall suggest - after a deep and complete study of the two samples - feasible transferable utility solutions in a properly coopetitive perspective for the divergent interests which drive the economic policies in the euro area.
2012-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37855/1/MPRA_paper_37855.pdf
Schilirò, Daniele and Carfì, David (2012): A framework of coopetitive games:applications to the Greek crisis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:37942
2019-09-29T23:03:13Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463334
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463134
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463333
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37942/
The economic and monetary union countries vs. the global crisis
Kowalski, Tadeusz
F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F40 - General
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
The global financial and economic crisis revealed institutional weaknesses and structural problems of particular Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries.
The crisis and slowdown that followed had an impact on their relative competitiveness. Financial and economic turbulences of recent years shed new light on
the scale and scope of interdependences in the world economy. They uncovered economic and institutional flaws of the very EMU itself. The paper focuses on EMU countries real sector reactions to the financial disturbances. Both comparative static and dynamic approaches are used in order to assess the scope and pace of adjustments triggered by the global crisis.
2012-02-14
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37942/1/MPRA_paper_37942.pdf
Kowalski, Tadeusz (2012): The economic and monetary union countries vs. the global crisis. Published in: Working papers. Faculty of international business and economics. Poznan University of Economics No. WP/2012/04
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:38482
2019-09-26T21:52:54Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D43:4335:433530
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38482/
Macroeconomic fluctuations,regime switching(structural breaks) and impulse responses:Nigerian evidence
Nwaobi, Godwin
F40 - General
C50 - General
E30 - General
E60 - General
E20 - General
While the global economic recovery continues, it remains uneven and subject to downside risks. Yet,to the extent that these linger, they could undermine growth further and foster larger macroeconomic imbalances.In fact,one unwanted characteristics that most Sub-saharan African economies share, is the prevalence and magnitude of output collapses. Unfortunately, research into output collapses remains largely unexplored and much of the focus of growth studies has been on cross-country analysis, ignoring the volatility of growth patherns. This paper therefore intends to show that the hypothesis of a common stochastic productivity trend have a set of econometric implications that allow us to test for its presence,measure its importance and extract estimates of its realized value. Distinctively, we propose to contribute to the current modelling literature by accomodating regime switching and structural break dynamics in a unified framework so as to provide a fuller understanding of the factors underlying the bulk of economic fluctuations in Nigeria.
2011-12-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38482/1/MPRA_paper_38482.pdf
Nwaobi, Godwin (2011): Macroeconomic fluctuations,regime switching(structural breaks) and impulse responses:Nigerian evidence.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:39663
2019-09-26T08:47:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453331
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39663/
Long run exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from new panel data techniques
Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine
F40 - General
E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
F31 - Foreign Exchange
This paper examines the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices using recent panel data techniques. For a sample of 27 OECD countries, panel cointegration tests provide an evidence for the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship in pass-through equation. Following Pedroni (2001), we employ both FM-OLS and DOLS estimators and show that long-run ERPT elasticity does not exceed 0.70%. Individual estimates of ERPT are heterogeneous across 27 OECD countries, ranging from 0.23% in France to 0.98% in Poland. When we look for macroeconomic determinants of this long-run heterogeneity, we implement a panel threshold methodology as introduced by Hansen (2000). Our results indicate a regime-dependence of ERPT, that is, countries with higher inflation regime and more exchange rate volatility would experience a higher degree of pass-through.
2011-06
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39663/1/MPRA_paper_39663.pdf
Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine (2011): Long run exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from new panel data techniques.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:40374
2019-10-12T04:49:20Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463530
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453532
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453437
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40374/
Heterogeneity of the Maghreb: the results of optimized monetary rules
Belhadj, Aam
F40 - General
F50 - General
F30 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Monetary Policy
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E40 - General
E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
The launch of the euro has fed doubts concerning the constitution of an optimal European monetary zone. Indeed, the differences in legal, institutional and cultural frameworks…
as well as the diversity of the productive and financial European systems may have led to the idea that Europe does not constitute a viable monetary zone.
In Africa, the decision of African Central Bank governors to adopt a single currency by 2021 and the call from the union of Maghreb banks in November 2007 to create one currency for the Maghreb (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania and Tunisia) raises the same doubts as to the efficiency of such decisions.
In this preliminary work, we have tried to evaluate implicitly the pertinence of such decision by showing in a first section the heterogeneity of Maghrebian monetary regimes.
We have tried to illustrate in a second section this heterogeneity via a model describing the functioning of the economy of these countries. Finally, we have attempted to show in a third section the consequences of these heterogeneities by simulating optimal monetary rules defined for each country.
Our results suggest that these countries will need divergent Taylor rules and that the decision to belong to the same monetary union where a common monetary policy will be
conducted proved to be unsuitable.
2009-07-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40374/1/MPRA_paper_40374.pdf
Belhadj, Aam (2009): Heterogeneity of the Maghreb: the results of optimized monetary rules. Published in: Global Business and Management Research: An International Journal , Vol. 1, No. 3 & 4 (2009): pp. 1-24.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:40938
2019-09-27T10:12:19Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443633
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3431
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493331
7375626A656374733D4A:4A33:4A3338
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443634
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40938/
Sustainable Heterogeneity as the Unique Socially Optimal Allocation for Almost All Social Welfare Functions
Harashima, Taiji
F40 - General
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
I31 - General Welfare, Well-Being
J38 - Public Policy
D64 - Altruism ; Philanthropy
E20 - General
The socially optimal allocation has been regarded to be unspecifiable because of utility’s interpersonal incomparability, Arrow’s general possibility theorem, and other factors. This paper examines this problem by focusing not on the social welfare function but instead on the utility possibility frontier in dynamic models with a heterogeneous population. A unique balanced growth path was found on which all of the optimality conditions of all heterogeneous households are equally and indefinitely satisfied (sustainable heterogeneity). With appropriate government interventions, such a path is always achievable and is uniquely socially optimal for almost all generally usable (i.e., preferences are complete, transitive, and continuous) social welfare functions. The only exceptions are some variants in Nietzsche type social welfare functions, but those types of welfare functions will rarely be adopted in democratic societies. This result indicates that it is no longer necessary to specify the shape of the social welfare function to determine the socially optimal growth path in a heterogeneous population.
2012-08-29
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40938/1/MPRA_paper_40938.pdf
Harashima, Taiji (2012): Sustainable Heterogeneity as the Unique Socially Optimal Allocation for Almost All Social Welfare Functions.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:42091
2019-09-26T22:32:39Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463139
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42091/
Cointegration and causality between Romanian exports and imports
Dumitriu, Ramona
Stefanescu, Razvan
Nistor, Costel
F40 - General
F10 - General
F19 - Other
This paper explores the dynamic relations between the Romanian exports and imports using monthly data from January 2005 to March 2009. We test the cointegration and causality between the two variables. The results of Engle-Granger, Johansen and cointegration tests are ambiguous while the Breitung test infirmed the hypothesis of cointegration between exports and imports. In these circumstances we conclude that we can’t consider Romanian current account deficits as sustainable. We also find evidence of the bidirectional Granger causality between the exports and the imports explained by the significant interactions between the two variables.
2009-05-03
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42091/1/MPRA_paper_42091.pdf
Dumitriu, Ramona and Stefanescu, Razvan and Nistor, Costel (2009): Cointegration and causality between Romanian exports and imports. Published in: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Business Excellence ICBE, 16-17 October, 2009, Brasov, Romania , Vol. 1, (12 October 2009): pp. 182-185.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:42419
2019-09-27T01:00:57Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D43:4333:433333
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42419/
Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis
Das, Debasish Kumar
F40 - General
F30 - General
C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
This research presents an empirical investigation of the determinants of current account imbalance for the large sample of developed, emerging and developing countries during 1980-2011. Using dynamic panel GMM techniques, this study characterizes that current account balance are positively correlated with net foreign assets, trade openness and exchange rate stability and negatively associated with commodity price, real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate for the developed countries. While, among emerging countries, commodity price, real GDP growth, trade openness and de-jure capital openness is positively and net foreign asset, exchange rate stability index is negatively related with current account balance. These findings suggest that the current account determinants explain different characteristics in terms of different country groups. The results also hold Chinn and Ito (2007) and Chinn and Prasad (2003) along with three more important determinants with significant influence on current account, which have not ever considered in literature.
2012-09-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42419/1/MPRA_paper_42419.pdf
Das, Debasish Kumar (2012): Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:44254
2019-09-26T18:42:28Z
7374617475733D696E7072657373
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D4F:4F31:4F3130
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463231
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44254/
Financial development dynamic thresholds of financial globalization: evidence from Africa
Simplice A, Asongu
F40 - General
F30 - General
O10 - General
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements
Purpose – The issue of which financial initial conditions are necessary to materialize the benefits of financial globalization remains open to debate in the literature. In this paper, we try to put some empirical structure on the concept of financial threshold conditions in order to give policymakers guidance on the Kose et al. (2011) and Henry (2007) hypothesis. Its object is to assess if financial benefits of financial globalization are questionable until greater domestic financial development has taken place in African countries.
Design/methodology/approach – In framing the financial dimension in a more concrete and tractable manner, we examine the concerns of how domestic financial initial dynamics of depth (economic and financial systems), efficiency (banking and financial systems), activity (banking and financial systems) and size, play out in the financial development benefits of financial globalization. The estimation approach consists of assessing the impact of financial globalization through-out the conditional distributions of domestic financial development dynamics.
Findings – The introduction of previously missing financial dimensions into the debate generates a number of important findings. Only financial initial (threshold) conditions of size are necessary to materialize the benefits of financial globalization. While financial depth only partially validates the hypothesis, dynamics of efficiency and activity (credit) do not confirm the hypothesis.
Practical implications – Addressing the issue of surplus liquidity in African financial institutions could improve the benefits of financial size and potentially reverse the trends of financial efficiency and activity. Depending on the context of sampled countries, the appropriate role of policy has always been either to stem the tide of capital flows or encourage them. Policymakers who have been viewing their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective for benefits in growth (finance) might be getting the financial dynamics badly wrong.
Originality/value – Blanket financial development policies may not reap the financial benefits of financial globalization until domestic financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size are critically considered. The introduction of the last three previously missing components in the literature sheds more light on the globalization-development nexus.
2012-06-30
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44254/1/MPRA_paper_44254.pdf
Simplice A, Asongu (2012): Financial development dynamic thresholds of financial globalization: evidence from Africa. Forthcoming in:
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:45132
2019-10-10T13:21:56Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45132/
FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability
Reinhart, Carmen
Rogoff, Kenneth
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a high incidence of war. In this paper, we examine the role that monetary and exchange rate policy may have played in explaining this outcome. Specifically, we document the incidence of inflationary episodes and currency crashes in order to compare countries within the region as well as to make comparisons with other regions. Furthermore, since monetary policy can range from very transparent to very opaque, we assess Africa’s track record with dual and parallel markets. We use the parallel market premia as an indicator of the degree of distortions and extent of transparency. Our findings, suggest that this is a promising line of inquiry because Africa does stand apart from other regions in this measure of transparency. We also discuss some of the fiscal underpinnings of Africa’s bouts with high inflation.
2002-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45132/1/MPRA_paper_13872.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth (2002): FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability. Published in: B. Plesovic and N. Stern, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda. Washington DC: The World Bank/Oxford University Press, (2002): pp. 247-282.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:45133
2019-10-08T19:22:02Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45133/
FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability
Reinhart, Carmen
Rogoff, Kenneth
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a high incidence of war. In this paper, we examine the role that monetary and exchange rate policy may have played in explaining this outcome. Specifically, we document the incidence of inflationary episodes and currency crashes in order to compare countries within the region as well as to make comparisons with other regions. Furthermore, since monetary policy can range from very transparent to very opaque, we assess Africa’s track record with dual and parallel markets. We use the parallel market premia as an indicator of the degree of distortions and extent of transparency. Our findings, suggest that this is a promising line of inquiry because Africa does stand apart from other regions in this measure of transparency. We also discuss some of the fiscal underpinnings of Africa’s bouts with high inflation.
2002-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45133/1/MPRA_paper_13872.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth (2002): FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability. Published in: B. Plesovic and N. Stern, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda. Washington DC: The World Bank/Oxford University Press, (2002): pp. 247-282.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:45134
2019-10-01T20:26:48Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463531
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45134/
FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability
Reinhart, Carmen
Rogoff, Kenneth
F40 - General
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions
Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a high incidence of war. In this paper, we examine the role that monetary and exchange rate policy may have played in explaining this outcome. Specifically, we document the incidence of inflationary episodes and currency crashes in order to compare countries within the region as well as to make comparisons with other regions. Furthermore, since monetary policy can range from very transparent to very opaque, we assess Africa’s track record with dual and parallel markets. We use the parallel market premia as an indicator of the degree of distortions and extent of transparency. Our findings, suggest that this is a promising line of inquiry because Africa does stand apart from other regions in this measure of transparency. We also discuss some of the fiscal underpinnings of Africa’s bouts with high inflation.
2002-08
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45134/1/MPRA_paper_13872.pdf
Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth (2002): FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability. Published in: B. Plesovic and N. Stern, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda. Washington DC: The World Bank/Oxford University Press, (2002): pp. 247-282.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:45546
2019-10-08T16:57:48Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4432:443232
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463137
7375626A656374733D46:4632
7375626A656374733D46:4632:463233
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45546/
Sobre los determinantes de la propensión exportadora de las empresas: ¿Qué nos dicen los datos?
Lago-Peñas, Santiago
Prada, Albino
Sánchez, Patricio
D22 - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business
F23 - Multinational Firms ; International Business
F40 - General
In this paper we analyze the determinants of the export performance firms. The methodology used is reminiscent of that of previous studies. The main novelty is the use of information provided by a specific field work done to effect. The analysis shows that export propensity is growing the more extensive in time is the export experience, and is larger when the company has benefited from state support internationalization. Foreign direct investment by companies not replace export intensity but seems to reinforce it at least to a size threshold of 250 employees. Finally, technology companies classifiable as high or medium-high by OECD standards do show a greater propensity to export.
2012-10-10
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45546/1/MPRA_paper_45546.pdf
Lago-Peñas, Santiago and Prada, Albino and Sánchez, Patricio (2012): Sobre los determinantes de la propensión exportadora de las empresas: ¿Qué nos dicen los datos?
es
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:49489
2019-09-26T22:24:32Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D47:4731:473130
7375626A656374733D52:5233:523330
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49489/
Commodity house prices
Leung, Charles Ka Yui
Shi, Song
Tang, Edward Chi Ho
F40 - General
G10 - General
R30 - General
This paper studies how commodity price movements have affected the local house prices in commodity-dependent economies, Australia and New Zealand. We build a geographically hierarchical empirical model and find the commodity prices influence local house prices directly and also indirectly through macroeconomic variables. The impacts of commodity price changes are analogous to “income shocks” rather than “cost shocks”. Regional heterogeneity is also observed in terms of differential dynamic responses of local house prices to energy versus non-energy commodity price movements. The results are robust to alternative approaches. Directions for future research are also discussed.
2013-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49489/1/MPRA_paper_49489.pdf
Leung, Charles Ka Yui and Shi, Song and Tang, Edward Chi Ho (2013): Commodity house prices.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:49991
2019-09-30T05:16:40Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49991/
A Panel Cointegration Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine
Mohamed Cheik, Hamidou
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F40 - General
This paper investigates the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) equation for a panel of 27 OECD countries. Previous empirical panel data studies, have neglected the possibility of cross-sectional correlation and spillovers amongst countries. Since the strong economic and financial linkages between OECD countries cannot be ignored, we apply second generation panel unit root and panel cointegration tests which account for possible cross-section dependence across the units in the panel. Our results suggest the existence of a cointegrated equilibrium relationship between the variables in levels, as implied by the theoretical underpinning of the ERPT mechanism. When estimating the long-run pass-through coefficient, both FM-OLS and DOLS estimators show an incomplete pass-through, i.e. import prices sensitivity to exchange rate movements does not exceed 0.70% for our sample of OECD countries. This evidence of partial pass-through would represent a key element in understanding the ongoing global external imbalances.
2013-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49991/1/MPRA_paper_49991.pdf
Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine and Mohamed Cheik, Hamidou (2013): A Panel Cointegration Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:50123
2019-09-28T04:44:09Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4332:433233
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50123/
A Panel Cointegration Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine
Mohamed Cheik, Hamidou
C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F40 - General
This paper investigates the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) equation for a panel of 27 OECD countries. Previous empirical panel data studies, have neglected the possibility of cross-sectional correlation and spillovers amongst countries. Since the strong economic and financial linkages between OECD countries cannot be ignored, we apply second generation panel unit root and panel cointegration tests which account for possible cross-section dependence across the units in the panel. Our results suggest the existence of a cointegrated equilibrium relationship between the variables in levels, as implied by the theoretical underpinning of the ERPT mechanism. When estimating the long-run pass-through coefficient, both FM-OLS and DOLS estimators show an incomplete pass-through, i.e. import prices sensitivity to exchange rate movements does not exceed 0.70% for our sample of OECD countries. This evidence of partial pass-through would represent a key element in understanding the ongoing global external imbalances.
2013-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50123/9/MPRA_paper_50123.pdf
Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine and Mohamed Cheik, Hamidou (2013): A Panel Cointegration Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:51244
2019-09-30T16:09:53Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463135
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51244/
Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union
Dumitriu, Ramona
Stefanescu, Răzvan
F10 - General
F15 - Economic Integration
F40 - General
After the fall of communist regime the Romanian current account passed from exceeds to substantial and persistent deficits. This evolution raised concerns over the country external sustainability. Since 2007, in the Romanian foreign trade dramatic changes occurred, being induced by the adhesion to European Union and by the global crisis. The adhesion to European Union stimulated both exports and imports. However, because the exports growth was much less consistent than the imports growth, the deficits of current account widened. Beginning with the end of 2008, the national economy was affected by the global crisis which discouraged both exports and imports. This time, because the decline of exports was less sharp than the decline of imports, the deficits of the Romanian current account narrowed. However, the country external sustainability is still an actual problem in the circumstances of the new challenges of a changing international context. In this paper we investigate the sustainability of the Romanian current account from January 2007 to January 2013. In our analysis we employ monthly values of the main components of the current account. We also use unit root and cointegration tests that allow taking into consideration the structural breaks. Our results suggest the deficits of the current account are not sustainable.
2013-04-05
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51244/1/MPRA_paper_51244.pdf
Dumitriu, Ramona and Stefanescu, Răzvan (2013): Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union. Published in: The Proceedings of the 19th International Conference “The Knowledge-Based Organization”, Sibiu 2013 , Vol. 2, (17 June 2013): pp. 97-102.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:51653
2019-10-15T20:47:28Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443633
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443634
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493331
7375626A656374733D49:4933:493338
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51653/
Sustainable Heterogeneity in Exogenous Growth Models: The Socially Optimal Distribution by Government’s Intervention
Harashima, Taiji
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
D64 - Altruism ; Philanthropy
E20 - General
F40 - General
I31 - General Welfare, Well-Being
I38 - Government Policy ; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
This paper examines the socially optimal allocation by focusing not on the social welfare function but instead on the utility possibility frontier in exogenous growth models with a heterogeneous population. A unique balanced growth path was found on which all of the optimality conditions of all heterogeneous households are equally and indefinitely satisfied (sustainable heterogeneity). With appropriate government interventions, such a path is always achievable and is uniquely socially optimal for almost all generally usable (i.e., preferences are complete, transitive, and continuous) social welfare functions. The only exceptions are some variants in Nietzsche type social welfare functions, but those types of welfare functions will rarely be adopted in democratic societies. This result indicates that it is no longer necessary to specify the shape of the social welfare function to determine the socially optimal growth path in a heterogeneous population.
2013-11-22
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51653/1/MPRA_paper_51653.pdf
Harashima, Taiji (2013): Sustainable Heterogeneity in Exogenous Growth Models: The Socially Optimal Distribution by Government’s Intervention.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:53237
2019-09-28T10:06:36Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D43:4334
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D47:4732
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473231
7375626A656374733D47:4732:473238
7375626A656374733D47:4733
7375626A656374733D47:4733:473332
7375626A656374733D47:4733:473334
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53237/
Do high customer bank deposits incite management fraud? Examining causes of management fraud in the Nigerian banking sector
ojeaga, paul
Ikpefan, o
Odejimi, Deborah
C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
F40 - General
G2 - Financial Institutions and Services
G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
G28 - Government Policy and Regulation
G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance
G32 - Financing Policy ; Financial Risk and Risk Management ; Capital and Ownership Structure ; Value of Firms ; Goodwill
G34 - Mergers ; Acquisitions ; Restructuring ; Corporate Governance
The study investigates factors that incite fraud in the banking sector in Nigeria, using times series data for fraud obtained from CBN data from 1998 to 2010. It was found that high bank deposit were primarily responsible for a high rise fraudulent occurrences in the Nigerian banking sector particularly management fraud, some other factors that were also jointly responsible for these occurrences include high interest rates, low commercial bank lending and poor oversight function by the Central Bank and other financial regulatory agencies. The method of estimation used in the study is the quantile regression estimation method which is a non parametric estimation method based on the premise that the sample median will tend to that of the distributional median, it presents some obvious advantages over OLS (ordinary least squares) estimates, since the results are robust in the presence of outliers and heteroscedastic errors in the response measurement and allows for the exploration of other central tendencies and statistical dispersion properties of the dataset Machando and Silva (2013). The results are robust even after controlling for presence of heterscedastic error in the response measurement as well re-sampling the dataset (conducted by the bootstrapped quantile regression technique). Further explanation is also provided for the implication of variables identified to drive fraud occurrences using kernel density estimation.
2013-11-09
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53237/1/MPRA_paper_53237.pdf
ojeaga, paul and Ikpefan, o and Odejimi, Deborah (2013): Do high customer bank deposits incite management fraud? Examining causes of management fraud in the Nigerian banking sector.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:55352
2019-09-26T13:10:21Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4630:463032
7375626A656374733D46:4633
7375626A656374733D46:4634
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D46:4636
7375626A656374733D46:4636:463630
7375626A656374733D46:4636:463635
7375626A656374733D5A:5A30:5A3030
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55352/
Impact of FDI on GDP: An Analysis of Global Economy on Production Function
Khan, Shiraz
Mehboob, Farhan
F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
F3 - International Finance
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization
F60 - General
F65 - Finance
Z00 - General
This study examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on Gross Domestic Product on the production function theory by balanced panel data of World Development Indicators from 1992 to 2010 of 59 countries representing the global economy.
The empirical analysis on basis of generalized least squares estimator with random effects suggests that there is a significant positive relationship between all the variables of Production Function including Gross Domestic Product and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows. The unit root test confirms the model’s predictive validity and all the three variables significantly explain variation in the Gross Domestic Product, Co-integration test confirms the long-run relationship and Granger causality test finally identifies the presence of unidirectional causality among Gross Domestic Product and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Bidirectional causality between the all variables of the original production function.
It is recommended for the host nations to emphasize on pro-capital polices to attract and maximize foreign direct investment inflows which will ultimately increase Gross Domestic Product of the host nations.
2014-01-15
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55352/1/MPRA_paper_55352.pdf
Khan, Shiraz and Mehboob, Farhan (2014): Impact of FDI on GDP: An Analysis of Global Economy on Production Function.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:56638
2019-09-27T06:23:38Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4631
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463130
7375626A656374733D46:4631:463131
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56638/
Deconstructing the Gains from Trade: Selection of Industries vs. Reallocation of Workers
Bolatto, Stefano
Sbracia, Massimo
F1 - Trade
F10 - General
F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F40 - General
In a Ricardian model with CES preferences and general distributions of industry efficiencies, the sources of the welfare gains from trade can be precisely decomposed into a selection and a reallocation effect. The former is the change in average efficiency due to the selection of industries that survive international competition. The latter is the rise in the weight of exporting industries in domestic production, due the reallocation of workers away from less-efficient non-exporting industries. This decomposition, which is hard to calculate in the general case, simplifies dramatically if industry efficiencies are Fréchet distributed, providing easy-to-quantify model-based measures of these two effects. Under this assumption, we also show that when the gains from trade are small, it is the selection effect that matters most; as the gains from trade rise and the size of the export sector grows, so does the importance of the reallocation effect.
2014-06-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56638/1/MPRA_paper_56638.pdf
Bolatto, Stefano and Sbracia, Massimo (2014): Deconstructing the Gains from Trade: Selection of Industries vs. Reallocation of Workers.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:59624
2019-10-01T13:33:19Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59624/
The Impact of the Adoption of the Euro: Evidence From Portugal
Rivera-Solis, Luis Eduardo
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F40 - General
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the adoption of the Euro on trade within the Euro-zone, in particular on how it specifically affects the Iberian Peninsula, more specifically the country of Portugal. The literature on monetary unions has argued that there are benefits and costs for those countries in entering a monetary union and adopting a single currency other than their own and who give up their monetary policy. The primary benefits from following this course of action are the uncertainties associated with exchange rate fluctuations and the elimination of transaction costs. Other benefits include 1) a single European market, 2) a single financial market, which benefits both investors and savers, 3) political integration, which benefits the entire process of integration, and 4) practical benefits, such as facilitating travel within the Euro area. Included among the costs are the loss of seignorage and the loss of an independent monetary policy
2007
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59624/1/MPRA_paper_59624.pdf
Rivera-Solis, Luis Eduardo (2007): The Impact of the Adoption of the Euro: Evidence From Portugal.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:60016
2019-10-01T05:00:20Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60016/
Le Pacifique insulaire dans le cadre d'échange multilatéral : quel accord de libre-échange pour les territoires français du Pacifique ?
Ellero, Jeremy
Lagadec, Gael
F40 - General
When the framework of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created in 1947, the aim was to build a negotiation structure to regulate the liberalisation of trade and remedy protectionist measures. Fifty years on from its creation, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) includes 159 countries, has accompanied developments in free trade and remains the reference forum for settling trade disputes. However, the failure of the Doha Round in 2008 highlighted the failings of the decision-making mechanism and its inability to span all the different areas of trade. The Multilateral Trading System (MTS) is undergoing profound change and seems to be seeing a regional fragmentation of its spheres of influence. In this context, the initiative of the PICTA and PACER agreements would appear to be the first step towards the construction of a regional single market in the Pacific. Oceania represents a market of seven million consumers scattered over one-third of the surface area of the globe. Against a backdrop of gradual political emancipation, New Caledonia and French Polynesia must now re-examine the prospects for regional cooperation. However, the institution of a free trade zone via adoption of the PICTA and PACER agreements raises questions as to the very economic foundations of the French territories. Geographical isolation, lack of commercial openings and the heterogeneous nature of the Pacific Island economies have a direct influence on commercial policies. Given the nature of trade between the Pacific islands, any genuine stimulation would appear to be out of the question. The real stakes in trade integration in the Pacific would seem to lie in trade in services and the free movement of workers. While more than 40% of global trade is governed by around 170 bilateral and regional trade agreements, the development of the Pacific Island economies seems to be fundamentally compatible only with the establishment of a bespoke regional union.
2014-11-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60016/1/MPRA_paper_60016.pdf
Ellero, Jeremy and Lagadec, Gael (2014): Le Pacifique insulaire dans le cadre d'échange multilatéral : quel accord de libre-échange pour les territoires français du Pacifique ?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:60043
2019-09-29T18:27:15Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60043/
Le Pacifique insulaire dans le cadre d'échange multilatéral : quel accord de libre-échange pour les territoires français du Pacifique ?
Ellero, Jeremy
Lagadec, Gael
F40 - General
When the framework of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created in 1947, the aim was to build a negotiation structure to regulate the liberalisation of trade and remedy protectionist measures. Fifty years on from its creation, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) includes 159 countries, has accompanied developments in free trade and remains the reference forum for settling trade disputes. However, the failure of the Doha Round in 2008 highlighted the failings of the decision-making mechanism and its inability to span all the different areas of trade. The Multilateral Trading System (MTS) is undergoing profound change and seems to be seeing a regional fragmentation of its spheres of influence. In this context, the initiative of the PICTA and PACER agreements would appear to be the first step towards the construction of a regional single market in the Pacific. Oceania represents a market of seven million consumers scattered over one-third of the surface area of the globe. Against a backdrop of gradual political emancipation, New Caledonia and French Polynesia must now re-examine the prospects for regional cooperation. However, the institution of a free trade zone via adoption of the PICTA and PACER agreements raises questions as to the very economic foundations of the French territories. Geographical isolation, lack of commercial openings and the heterogeneous nature of the Pacific Island economies have a direct influence on commercial policies. Given the nature of trade between the Pacific islands, any genuine stimulation would appear to be out of the question. The real stakes in trade integration in the Pacific would seem to lie in trade in services and the free movement of workers. While more than 40% of global trade is governed by around 170 bilateral and regional trade agreements, the development of the Pacific Island economies seems to be fundamentally compatible only with the establishment of a bespoke regional union.
2014-11-01
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60043/1/MPRA_paper_60043.pdf
Ellero, Jeremy and Lagadec, Gael (2014): Le Pacifique insulaire dans le cadre d'échange multilatéral : quel accord de libre-échange pour les territoires français du Pacifique ?
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:62547
2019-10-04T02:25:06Z
7374617475733D707562
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463433
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463439
7375626A656374733D4F:4F34:4F3430
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62547/
Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production
Stefanescu, Razvan
Dumitriu, Ramona
F40 - General
F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F49 - Other
O40 - General
This paper investigates the interactions among the Romanian industrial production, exports and imports after the adhesion to European Union. We employ monthly values testing for the Granger Causality between the variables in a Vector Autoregression framework. Our results indicate significant causalities among the variables, especially the one from the returns of exports to the returns of the industrial production index. We could consider these findings as an argument in favor of the Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis.
2014-12-22
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62547/1/MPRA_paper_62547.pdf
Stefanescu, Razvan and Dumitriu, Ramona (2014): Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production. Published in: Vanguard Scientific Instruments in Management , Vol. 9, (December 2014): pp. 101-113.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:63549
2024-03-29T11:34:12Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463330
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463331
7375626A656374733D46:4633:463332
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63549/
Nominal Exchange Rates and Net Foreign Assets' Dynamics: the Stabilization Role of Valuation Effects
Eugeni, Sara
F30 - General
F31 - Foreign Exchange
F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Recent empirical studies have highlighted that valuation effects associated with fluctuations of nominal exchange rates are one of the key components that drive the behaviour of the net foreign assets position of a country. In this paper, we propose a two-country overlapping-generations model of nominal exchange rate determination
with endogenous portfolio choice in line with this evidence. We show that a country runs a current account deficit when its share of world GDP decreases. As the domestic currency depreciates in equilibrium, a positive wealth effect partially offsets the current deficit and therefore has a stabilizing impact on the net external position of the country.
The model rationalizes the deterioration of the US external position over the past 20 years as a consequence of the rise of emerging market countries in the world economy,
while being consistent with the fact the US have experienced positive valuation effects. Numerical results indicate that valuation effects are quantitatively relevant as they account for more than half of the cumulated US current account deficits, consistently with the data.
2015-04
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63549/1/MPRA_paper_63549.pdf
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63549/8/MPRA_paper_63549.pdf
Eugeni, Sara (2015): Nominal Exchange Rates and Net Foreign Assets' Dynamics: the Stabilization Role of Valuation Effects.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:63794
2019-09-27T07:06:33Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D44:4436:443630
7375626A656374733D45:4536:453630
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4635:463539
7375626A656374733D4F:4F35:4F3535
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63794/
Inclusive human development in pre-crisis times of globalisation-driven debts
Asongu, Simplice
EFOBI, Uchenna
BEECROFT, Ibukun
D60 - General
E60 - General
F40 - General
F59 - Other
O55 - Africa
The paper verifies the Azzimonti et al. (2014) conclusions on a sample of 53 African countries for the period 1996-2008. Authors of the underlying study have established theoretical underpinnings for a negative nexus between rising public debt and inequality in OECD nations. We assess the effects of four debt dynamics on inequality adjusted human development. Instrumental variable and interactive regressions were employed as empirical strategies. Two main findings were established which depend on whether debt is endogenous to or interactive with globalisation. First, when external debt is endogenous to globalisation, the effect on inclusive human development is negative, whereas when it is interactive with globalisation, the effect is positive. This may reflect the false economics of pre-conditions. The magnitudes of negative estimates from endogenous related effects were higher than the positive marginal interactive effects. Policy implications were discussed.
2014-12-13
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63794/1/MPRA_paper_63794.pdf
Asongu, Simplice and EFOBI, Uchenna and BEECROFT, Ibukun (2014): Inclusive human development in pre-crisis times of globalisation-driven debts.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:64389
2019-09-26T09:57:33Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4536
7375626A656374733D46:4632
7375626A656374733D46:4633
7375626A656374733D46:4634
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463432
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64389/
The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector
Muteba Mwamba, John
Dube, Sandile
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business
F3 - International Finance
F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F40 - General
F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
The main objective of this paper is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade. We show that the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade could be either positive or negative depending on various reasons that are discussed in this study. We focus mainly on the manufacturing trade between the Republic of South Africa with the United States and China. Aggregated manufacturing industry data and disaggregated manufacturing data, disaggregated to the 4 digit level using the Harmonized System tariff 2009 is used to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trades. The finding of this paper represents a challenge for policy recommendations as it reflects the fact that various industries, sectors and subsectors of the economy of the Republic of South Africa are impacted differently by the volatility of the Rand/Yuan and Rand/Dollar exchange rates, respectively, therefore any policy that is drawn up to improve international trade needs to be done on an individual basis for each industry, sector and subsector respectively taking into account the various dynamics and characteristics of each.
2014-04-25
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64389/1/MPRA_paper_64389.pdf
Muteba Mwamba, John and Dube, Sandile (2014): The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:64755
2019-09-29T04:20:37Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530
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7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3335
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64755/
Digital waves in economics
Ledenyov, Dimitri O.
Ledenyov, Viktor O.
E0 - General
E00 - General
E10 - General
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E20 - General
E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E30 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E40 - General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E50 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
F0 - General
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F44 - International Business Cycles
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes
O35 - Social Innovation
The recent discovery of the Ledenyov digital waves in the economies of scale and scope led to an origination of considerable scientific interest in the modeling of new types of the discrete-time digital signals generators for the business cycles generation in the macroeconomics. Article aims: 1) to model the discrete-time digital signals generators for the business cycles generation in the macroeconomics, 2) to demonstrate the technical differences between the new model of the discrete-time digital signals generator and the existing models of the continuous-time (continuous wave) signals generators in the macroeconomics; 3) to accurately analyze the spectrum of discrete-time digital signals in the economies of scale and scope, 4) to improve the Ledenyov discrete time digital signals theory to precisely characterize the discrete time digital signals in the macroeconomics, 5) to better develop the complex software program to forecast the business cycles, going from the spectral analysis of the discrete time digital signals and the continuous time signals in the nonlinear dynamic economic system over the selected time period. The developed MicroSA software program intends: 1) to perform the spectrum analysis of the discrete-time digital signals and the continuous-time signals in the macroeconomics; 2) to make the computer modeling and to forecast the business cycles, going from the spectral analysis of the discrete time signals and the continuous time signals in the macroeconomics. The MicroSA can be used by a) the central banks with the purpose to make the strategic decisions on the monetary policies, financial stability policies, and b) the commercial/investment banks with the aim to make the business decisions on the minimum capital allocation, countercyclical capital buffer creation, and capital investments.
2015-06-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64755/1/MPRA_paper_64755.pdf
Ledenyov, Dimitri O. and Ledenyov, Viktor O. (2015): Digital waves in economics.
en
oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:64990
2019-09-27T03:17:41Z
7374617475733D756E707562
7375626A656374733D45:4530
7375626A656374733D45:4530:453030
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453130
7375626A656374733D45:4531:453137
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453230
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453232
7375626A656374733D45:4532:453237
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453330
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453332
7375626A656374733D45:4533:453337
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453430
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453434
7375626A656374733D45:4534:453437
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453530
7375626A656374733D45:4535:453538
7375626A656374733D46:4630
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463430
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463431
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463434
7375626A656374733D46:4634:463437
7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3331
7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3333
7375626A656374733D4F:4F33:4F3335
74797065733D7061706572
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64990/
Digital waves in economics
Ledenyov, Dimitri O.
Ledenyov, Viktor O.
E0 - General
E00 - General
E10 - General
E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E20 - General
E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity
E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E30 - General
E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E40 - General
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E50 - General
E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
F0 - General
F40 - General
F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F44 - International Business Cycles
F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes
O35 - Social Innovation
The recent discovery of the Ledenyov digital waves in the economies of scale and scope led to an origination of considerable scientific interest in the modeling of new types of the discrete-time digital signals generators for the business cycles generation in the macroeconomics. Article aims: 1) to model the discrete-time digital signals generators for the business cycles generation in the macroeconomics, 2) to demonstrate the technical differences between the new model of the discrete-time digital signals generator and the existing models of the continuous-time (continuous wave) signals generators in the macroeconomics; 3) to accurately analyze the spectrum of discrete-time digital signals in the economies of scale and scope, 4) to improve the Ledenyov discrete time digital signals theory to precisely characterize the discrete time digital signals in the macroeconomics, 5) to better develop the complex software program to forecast the business cycles, going from the spectral analysis of the discrete time digital signals and the continuous time signals in the nonlinear dynamic economic system over the selected time period. The developed MicroSA software program intends: 1) to perform the spectrum analysis of the discrete-time digital signals and the continuous-time signals in the macroeconomics; 2) to make the computer modeling and to forecast the business cycles, going from the spectral analysis of the discrete time signals and the continuous time signals in the macroeconomics. The MicroSA can be used by a) the central banks with the purpose to make the strategic decisions on the monetary policies, financial stability policies, and b) the commercial/investment banks with the aim to make the business decisions on the minimum capital allocation, countercyclical capital buffer creation, and capital investments.
2015-06-02
MPRA Paper
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
en
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64990/8/MPRA_paper_64990.pdf
Ledenyov, Dimitri O. and Ledenyov, Viktor O. (2015): Digital waves in economics.
en
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