The Effect of the Ebola Virus Disease on intra-regional trade in West Africa

Abban, Stanley (2020): The Effect of the Ebola Virus Disease on intra-regional trade in West Africa.

Abstract

The West African sub-region experienced the World’s largest Ebola outbreak after its maiden outbreak in Central Africa. In this background, economic activities were heavily affected hence intra-regional trade shares of affected countries. Given this, the study seeks to investigate the effect of the Ebola Virus on affected countries’ shares to intra-regional trade. Additionally, the study seeks to investigate the impact of ECOWAS membership on trade in West Africa. The Poison Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) was used to estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade. The results showed that the Ebola Virus Disease reduced the share of affected countries’ trade to intra-regional partners by two folds. Also, the study showed that ECOWAS membership doubles the level of trade. The study concludes that the ECOWAS should be proactive in their response to disease outbreak by investing in research. Additionally, the study shows that Mauritania will benefit from opting for the ECOWAS.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Ebola Virus Disease, Poison Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), ECOWAS, gravity model of international trade.
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration

References

Etuk, E. E. (2015). Ebola: a West African perspective. JR Coll Physicians Edinb, 45(1), 19-22.

Alexander, K. A., Sanderson, C. E., Marathe, M., Lewis, B. L., Rivers, C. M., Shaman, J., ... & Eubank, S. (2015). What factors might have led to the emergence of Ebola in West Africa?. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 9(6).

Adegun, O. (2014). The effects of Ebola virus on the economy of West Africa through the trade channel. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS) Volume, 19, 48-56.

Maffioli, E. M. (2018). The Political Economy of Health Epidemics: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak. Available at SSRN 3383187.

Silva, J. S.,Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and statistics, 88(4), 641-658.

Silva, J. S., Tenreyro, S. (2011). Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. Economics Letters, 112(2), 220-222.

Gourieroux, C., Monfort, A., Trognon, A. (1984). Pseudo maximum likelihood methods: applications to Poisson models. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 701-720.

Maffioli (2018) “The political economy of health epidemics; Evidence from the Ebola outbreak” S-51208-LIB-1

WBG, “The economic impact of the 2014 Ebola epidemic: short and medium term estimates for West Africa (World Bank Group),” 2014. 1 Alexander, Kathleen et al., “What Factors Might Have Led to the Emergence of Ebola in West Africa?,” PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2015, 9 (6). 4.1.3 MOH, “2014 Annual Report (Ministry of Health),” 2017. 3.1 Adam Kamradt-Scott (2016) WHO’s to blame? The World Health Organization and the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, Third World Quarterly, 37:3, 401-418, DOI: 10.1080/01436597.2015.1112232 Anderson, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annu. Rev. Econ., 3(1), 133-160.