Analiza stabilności fiskalnej w Polsce w latach 1995-2014

Jarmulska, Barbara (2016): Analiza stabilności fiskalnej w Polsce w latach 1995-2014. Published in: Studia i Prace Kolegium Zarządzania i Finansów No. 151 (2016): pp. 47-70.

Abstract

The article discusses the issue of fiscal stability and presents an analysis of the situation of Poland conducted from this perspective. The analysis was conducted in the context of introduction of a formal condition for fiscal stability and the evolution of approach to debt and deficit in the theory of economics. The article is to verify whether or not Polands fiscal policy was stable in the period of 1995-2014. The study is based on the selected econometric methods used in the literaturę and on the analysis of changes in Poland sińce 1995. The conducted analysis indicates stability of the fiscal policy in Poland in the examined period. However, because of the short series and incoherent results obtained, the conclusions should be treated with due caution. The existing fiscal framework and the shape of fiscal policy in response to new challenges and threats are identified as the most essential for the fiscal stability of Poland.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Analysis of Fiscal Stability in Poland in the Years 1995-2014
• Language: Polish
• Keywords: fiscal stability, public debt, the results of government and non-government institutions, unit root test
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; H - Public Economics > H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

References

Bohn H., The sustainability of fiscal policy in the United States, CESifo Working Paper 2005, no. 1446.

Bohn H., Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?, University of California at Santa Barbara and CESifo, 2006

Buchanan J.M., Barro on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem, „Journal of Political Economy” 1976, vol. 84, no. 2.

Burda M., Wypłosz Ch., Makroekonomia. Podręcznik europejski, PWE, Warszawa 2000

Canzoneri M., Cumby R., Diba B., Is the price level determined by the need of fiscal solvency, „American Economic Review” 2001, 91(5).

European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Alfairs, The 2015 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060), „European Economy” 2015, 3.

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2012, European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Alfairs.

Hamilton J., Flavin M., On the limitations of government borrowing a framework for empirical testing, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 1986, no. 1632.

Jajko B., Dług publiczny a równowaga fiskalna. Czy i kiedy rząd powinien emitować dług publiczny?, CeDeWu, Warszawa 2008.

Mackiewicz M., Metody weryfikacji stabilności fiskalnej - porównanie własności, „Bank i Kredyt” 2010, 41(2).

Mackiewicz M., Krajewski P., On the Mechanisms of Achieving Fiscal (Un)Sustainability - The Case of Poland, MPRA 2007, Paper no. 16035.

Marinheiro C.F., Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective, CESifo Working Paper Series 2005, no. 1399.

Mycielski J., Ekonometria, Uniwersytet Warszawski, Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych, Warszawa 2010.

Oręziak L., OFE. Katastrofa prywatyzacji emerytur w Polsce, „Książka i Prasa”, Warszawa 2014.

Owsiak S., Finanse publiczne. Teoria i praktyka, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 2005.

Polskie 10 lat w Unii. Raport, Ministerstwo Spraw Zagranicznych, Warszawa 2014.

Ratajczak M., Współczesne teorie ekonomiczne, Wydawnictwo UE w Poznaniu, Poznań 2012.

Republic of Poland: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement — Staff Report, IMF Country Report no. 13/21, International Monetary Fund 2013.

Republic of Poland — Concluding Statement of the 2012 Article IV Mission, International Monetary Fund (2012).

Rush M., Hakkio C., Is the budget deficit “too large?", „Economic Inquiry” 1991, vol. 29, iss. 3.

Term M., Time Series Analysis, Section III, University of Oxford, Oxford 2010.

The 2012 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2010-2060), European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs.

Trehan B., Walsh C., Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits, „Journal of Money, Credit and Banking” 1991, vol. 23, no. 2.

Wernik A., Finanse publiczne. Cele. Struktury. Uwarunkowania, PWE, Warszawa 2007.

Wieloletni Plan Finansowy Państwa na lata 2014-2017, Rada Ministrów, Warszawa 2014.

Włodarczyk P., Stabilność fiskalna - koncepcja teoretyczna i jej znaczenie praktyczne. Analiza na przykładzie państw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej w latach 1995-2009, zeszyt nr 256 „Materiały i Studia”, NBP 2011.