Schioppa, Claudio A. and Papadia, Andrea (2015): Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany.
Preview |
PDF
RESConf2016-1196.pdf Download (655kB) | Preview |
Abstract
We offer a new interpretation of the sovereign and commercial debt repatriation to Germany that occurred between 1931 and 1938, involving German bonds held abroad. These bonds exhibited a non-negligible and varying spread between their domestic prices and their respective prices abroad. We analyze nine years of weekly prices of these securities on domestic and foreign stock markets to argue that the crucial factor for the origination, variation and persistence of the spread was the impact of capital controls on the possibility of trading on secondary markets. We also find that German authorities kept the practice of debt repatriation under increasingly strict control in order to enjoy some of its political benefits, while avoiding detrimental macroeconomic effects. Our conclusions differ from previous literature and in addition provide a comprehensive interpretation of different aspects of the episode, consistently with recent macroeconomic literature that links the efficiency of secondary markets to sovereign risk.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Sovereign risk, Capital controls, Elite capture, Germany, Nazi regime, Foreign debt, Secondary markets |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F38 - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt N - Economic History > N2 - Financial Markets and Institutions > N24 - Europe: 1913- |
Item ID: | 102863 |
Depositing User: | Claudio Schioppa |
Date Deposited: | 16 Sep 2020 09:53 |
Last Modified: | 16 Sep 2020 09:53 |
References: | Accominotti, O., and B. Eichengreen (2013): “The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-1932,” NBER Working Papers, 19580. Bai, J. (1997a): “Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time,” Econometric Theory, 13(03), 315–352. Bai, J. (1997b): “Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 551–563. Bai, J., and P. Perron (1998): “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,” Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78. Bai, J., and P. Perron (2003): “Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1–22. Balogh, T. (1938): “The National Economy of Germany,” Economic Journal, 48, 480. Barkai, A. (1990): Nazi Economics: Ideology, Theory, and Policy. Yale University Press. Bonnel, A. T. (1940): German Control over International Economic Relations, 1930-1940. The University of Illinois Press. Broner, F., A. Erce, A. Martin, and J. Ventura (2014): “Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 61(C), 114–142. Broner, F., A. Martin, and J. Ventura (2008): “Enforcement Problems and Secondary Markets,” Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(2-3), 683–694. Broner, F., A. Martin, and J. Ventura (2010): “Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets,” American Economic Review, 100(4), 1523–55. Brown, W. O., and R. C. K. Burdekin (2002): “German Debt Traded in London during World War II: A British Perspective on Hitler,” Economica, 69, 655–669. Brutti, F., and P. Saure´ (2013): “Repatriation of Debt in the Euro Crisis: Evidence for the Secondary Market Theory,” mimeo. Bulow, J., and K. Rogoff (1988): “The Buyback Boondoggle,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 675–715. Bulow, J., and K. Rogoff (1991): “Sovereign Debt Repurchases: No Cure for Overhang,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 1219–36. Bundesbank (1976): Deutsches Geld- und Bankwesen in Zahlen, 1876-1975. Knapp. Clement, P. (2004): “The Touchstone of German credit: Nazi Germany and the service of the Dawes and Young Loans,” Financial History Review, 11(1), 33–50. Froot, K. (1989): “Buybacks, Exit Bonds, and the Optimality of Debt and Liquidity Relief,” International Economic Review, 30(1), 49–70. Guinnane, T. W. (2004): “Financial Vergangenheitsbew¨altigung: the 1953 London Debt Agreement,” Economic Growth Center, Yale University, Discussion Paper, 880. Guinnane, T. W., H. S. Rosen, and K. L. Willard (1995): “Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market,” American Economic Review, 86(4), 1001–18. Hansen, B. E. (2001): “The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 117–128. Harris, C. R. S. (1935): Germany’s Foreign Indebtedness. Oxford University Press. Heuser, H. K. (1934): “The German Method of Combined Debt Liquidation and Export Stimulation,” The Review of Economic Studies, 1(3), 210–217. Institut fur Konjunkturforschung (1933): Konjunkturstatistiches Handbuch. Institut fur Konjunkturforschung (1936): Konjunkturstatistiches Handbuch. James, H. (1985): The Reichsbank and Public Finance in Germany, 1924–1933: a Study of the Politics of Economics during the Great Depression. Frankfurt. James, H. (2004): Banks and Business Politics in Nazi Germany, in Business and Industry in Nazi Germany, Francis R. Nicosia and Jonathan Huener (eds). Berghahn Books. Kenen, P. B. (1991): “Debt Buybacks and Forgiveness in a Model with Voluntary Repudiation,” International Economic Journal, 5(1), 1–13. Klug, A. (1993): The German Buybacks 1932–1939: a Cure for Overhang?, no. 75 in Princeton Studies in International Finance. Princeton University Press. Krugman, P. (1988): “Market-Based Debt-Reduction Schemes,” NBER Working Papers, 2587. Lee, J., and M. C. Strazicich (2003): “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082–1089. Oosterlinck, K. (2003): “The Bond Market and the Legitimacy of Vichy France,” Explorations in Economic History, 40, 326–344. Oosterlinck, K., and J. Landon-Lane (2006): “Hope Springs Eternal – French Bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915–1919),” Review of Finance, 10(4), 507–535. Papadia, A. (2015): “Sovereign Defaults during the Great Depression: New Data, New Evidence,” mimeo. Perron, P. (2005): “Dealing with Structural Breaks,” Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-017, Boston University - Department of Economics. Poole, K. E. (1939): German Financial Policies 1932-1939. Harvard University Press. Power, P. J. (1996): “Sovereign Debt: The Rise of the Secondary Market and its Implications for Future Restructurings,” Fordham Law Review, 64(6), 2701–2772. Reinhart, C. M., and K. S. Rogoff (2013): “Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: some Lessons Learned and those Forgotten,” CEPR Discussion Paper Series, 9750. Ritschl, A. (2001): “Nazi Economic Imperialism and the Exploitation of the Small: Evidence from Germany’s Secret Foreign Exchange Balances, 1938-1940,” Economic History Review, 54(2), 324–345. Ritschl, A. (2002): Deutschlands Krise und Konjunktur, 1924-1934. Binnenkonjunktur, Auslandsverschuldung und Reparationsproblem zwischen Dawes-Plan und Transfersperre. Berlin: Akademie-Verlag. Ritschl, A. (2012): “The German Transfer Problem, 1920-1933: a Sovereign Debt Perspective,” European Review of History: Revue europeenne d’histoire, 10, 943–964. Ritschl, A. (2013): Reparations, Deficits, and Debt Default: the Great Depression in Germany, in The Great Depression of the 1930s, Nicholas Crafts and Peter Fearon (eds.). Oxford University Press. Schuker, S. (1988): American Reparations to Germany, 1924–1933. Princeton University Press. Schwarz, H. P. (1982): Die Wiederstellung des Deutschen Kredits: das Lodoner Schuldenabkommen. Belser. Stone, M. R. (1991): “Are Sovereign Debt Secondary Market Returns Sensitive to Macroeconomic Fundamentals? Evidence from the Contemporary and Interwar Markets,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 10(Supplement 1), S100–S122. Toniolo, G. (2005): Central Bank Cooperation at the Bank for International Settlements, 1930–73. Cambridge University Press. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/102863 |