Kang, Wensheng and Ratti, Ronald A. and Vespignani, Joaquin L. (2019): Revising the Impact of Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks: Effects across Countries.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_103035.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
We investigate the time-varying dynamics of global stock market volatility, commodity prices, domestic output and consumer prices. We find (i) stock market volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous adjustment process, (ii) impact of commodity price shock on global stock market volatility is significant during global financial crises, (iii) effects of global stock market volatility on the US output are amplified by endogenous commodity price responses, (iv) effects of global stock market volatility shocks on the economy are heterogeneous across nations and relatively larger in twelve developed countries, (v) four developing/small economies are more vulnerable to commodity price shocks.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Revising the Impact of Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks: Effects across Countries |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Global commodity prices, Global stock market volatility, Output, Heterogeneity |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E40 - General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E66 - General Outlook and Conditions |
Item ID: | 103035 |
Depositing User: | Joaquin L. Vespignani |
Date Deposited: | 28 Sep 2020 13:32 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2020 13:32 |
References: | Abel, A.B., Eberly, J.C., 1996. Optimal investment with costly reversibility. The Review of Economic Studies, 63, 581-593. Alfaro, I., Bloom, N., Lin, X., 2018. The finance uncertainty multiplier, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. 24571. Beja, A., Goldman, M.B., 1980. On the dynamic behavior of prices in disequilibrium. Journal of Finance 35, 235-248. Blanchard, O.J., 1981. Output, the stock market, and interest rates. The American Economic Review 71, 132-143. Bloom, N., 2009. The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica 77, 623-685. Campbell, J.Y., Lettau, M., Malkiel, B.G. and Xu, Y., 2001. Have individual stocks become more volatile? An empirical exploration of idiosyncratic risk. The Journal of Finance 56, 1-43. Chiarella, C., Kang, B., Nikitopoulos, C.S., and Tô, T., 2013. Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence. Energy Economics 40 989-1000. Chiarella, C., Kang, B., Nikitopoulos, C.S., and Tô, T., 2016. The Return–Volatility Relation in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, 36, 127-152. Chiarella, C., Flaschel, P., Franke, R., Semmler, W., 2009. Financial markets and the macroeconomy: a Keynesian perspective. Routledge International Studies in Money and Banking, Routledge. Choi, S., Furceri, D., Loungani, P., Mishra, S., Poplawski-Ribeiro, M., 2018. Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. Journal of International Money and Finance 82, 71-96. Choudhry, T., Papadimitriou, F.I. and Shabi, S., 2016. Stock market volatility and business cycle: Evidence from linear and nonlinear causality tests. Journal of Banking & Finance 66, 89-101. Clements, K., Fry, R., 2008. Commodity currencies and currency commodities. Resources Policy 33, 55–73. Creti, A., Joëts, M., Mignon, V., 2013. On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility. Energy Economics 37, 16-28. Crucini, M.J., Kose, M.A., Otrok, C., 2011. What are the driving forces of international business cycles? Review of Economic Dynamics 14, 156-175. Damodaran, A., 1993. A simple measure of price adjustment coefficients. Journal of Finance 48, 378-400. Del Negro, M., Primiceri, G.E., 2015. Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy: a corrigendum. The Review of Economic Studies 82, 1342-1345. Dungey, M., Fry, R., González-Hermosillo, B., Martin, V.L., 2007. Contagion in global equity markets in 1998: The effects of the Russian and LTCM crises. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 18, 155-174. Galí, J., Gambetti, L., 2015. The effects of monetary policy on stock market bubbles: Some evidence. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7, 233-257. Guo, H., 2002. Stock market returns, volatility, and future output. Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis 84, 75-84. Hamilton, J., 2008. Oil and the Macroeconomy. New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, edited by Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume, Palgrave McMillan Ltd. Johnson, R., Soenen, L., 2009. Commodity prices and stock market behavior in South American countries in the short run. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 45, 69-82. Kang, W., de Gracia, F.P. and Ratti, R.A., 2017a. Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations. Journal of International Money and Finance 70, 344-359. Kang W., Ratti, R.A., Vespignani, J.L., 2016. The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: a note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production. Economics Letters 145, 176-181. Kang, W., Ratti, R.A., Vespignani, J.L., 2020. The impact of global uncertainty on the global economy, and large developed and developing economies. Applied Economics, 52, 2392–2407. Kang W, Ratti R.A., Vespignani, J.L., 2017b. Oil price shocks and policy uncertainty: new evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production. Energy Economics 66, 536-546. Kilian, L., 2009. Not all oil price shocks are alike: disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review 99, 1053-1069. Kilian, L., Park, C., 2009. The impact of oil price shocks on the US stock market. International Economic Review 50, 1267-1287. Koop, G., Korobilis, D., 2010. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics 3, 267-358. Kothari, S.P., Lewellen, J., Warner, J.B., 2006. Stock returns, aggregate earnings surprises, and behavioral finance. Journal of Financial Economics 79, 537-568. Lee, K., Ni, S., 2002. On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: A study using industry level data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 823-852. Moshirian, F., 2011. The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation. Journal of Banking & Finance 35, 502-511. Ornelas, J.R.H., Mauad, R.B., 2019. Volatility risk premia and future commodity returns. Journal of International Money and Finance 96, 341-360. Primiceri, G.E., 2005. Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy. Review of Economic Studies 72, 821–852. Sly, N., 2016. Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-23. Stuermer, M., 2017. Industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities. Journal of International Money and Finance 76, 16-27. Vu, N.T., 2015. Stock market volatility and international business cycle dynamics: Evidence from OECD economies. Journal of International Money and Finance 50, 1-15. Walsh, C.E., 2017. Monetary theory and policy. MIT press. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/103035 |