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Una aproximación al análisis de causalidad entre la inflación y el desempleo en Colombia durante el nuevo milenio.

John Michael, Riveros Gavilanes (2020): Una aproximación al análisis de causalidad entre la inflación y el desempleo en Colombia durante el nuevo milenio.

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Abstract

The present article establishes an empirical approximation of the causality analysis between inflation and unemployment over the period of 2001 and 2019 for the Colombian economy from the theoretical contributions of Phillips (1957), Phelps (1967), Friedman (1968) and Ball & Mankiw (2002). The methodology based on time series through monthly data, incorporates cointegration analysis and the estimation of VAR models to proceed with the Granger causality tests. The estimations include the natural unemployment rate assumed by the NAIRU estimated with the Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter. The results indicate the inexistence of long-run relationships between the variables, a decreasing tendency of the natural unemployment rate and the Granger causality reflects only one direction from the inflation to the unemployment. The conclusions establish a significative force from the adaptive expectations in Colombia probably linked with speculation, which through the changes in the price level rebound in the economy and in the variation of the unemployment rate.

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