Industrial Impact of Economic Uncertainty Shocks in Australia: Revised

Burrel, Hamish and Vespignani, Joaquin L. (2020): Industrial Impact of Economic Uncertainty Shocks in Australia: Revised.

Abstract

Understanding the impact of economic uncertainty shocks at the industrial disaggregated level is critical for both fiscal and monetary policy response to economic uncertainty shocks. We estimate an SVAR model using quarterly Australian data from 1987:2 to 2018:4. The results of this paper emphasise that individual industries have unique responses to economic uncertainty shocks and do not necessarily reflect the response of the broader aggregate macroeconomy. We found the following stylized facts; i) The construction industry is the most negatively impacted industry by an economic uncertainty shock in terms of investment, output and employment in Australia; ii) The financial and insurance services industry also endures a substantial decline to these shocks, particularly on investment and employment indicators; iii) Economic uncertainty is shown to have less impact on the mining, health care and social assistance and public administration and safety industry, where the government plays a significant role.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Economic Uncertainty, Economic Uncertainty Shocks, SVAR, Australian economy, Australian Industries
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models

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