Effects on Fertility of The Brazilian Cash Transfer Program: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach

Superti, Luiz Henrique (2019): Effects on Fertility of The Brazilian Cash Transfer Program: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach.

Abstract

The program Bolsa Família is a pillar of Brazil's welfare system. However, it is possible that the program encouraged beneficiaries to have more children. Using federal data and the eligibility rule, we propose a regression discontinuity to verify the program's effect on fertility outcomes. Problems associated with the data such as manipulation and attrition are solved by using novel procedures found in the literature. We found an effect on birth spacing but not on fertility rates. This study complements the literature in regard to cash transfers and fertility outcomes, and empirical evidence for the quantity-quality trade-off in fertility decisions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bolsa Família, Fertility, Birth Spacing, Cash Transfer
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I38 - Government Policy ; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J18 - Public Policy; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

References

D Almond, J J Doyle After midnight: A regression discontinuity design in length of postpartum hospital stays American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, volume 3, issue 3, p. 1 - 34 Posted: 2011

J Angrist, V Lavy, A Schlosser Multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children Journal of Labor Economics, volume 28, issue 4, p. 773 - 824 Posted: 2010

J D Angrist, M Rokkanen Wanna get away? regression discontinuity estimation of exam school effects away from the cutoff Journal of the American Statistical Association, volume 110, issue 512, p. 1331 - 1344 Posted: 2015

C Baird, B Mcintosh, Ozler Cash or condition? evidence from a cash transfer experiment The Quarterly Journal of Economics Posted: 2011

F H Baird, B Ferreira, M Ozler, Woolcock Conditional, unconditional and everything in between: a systematic review of the effects of cash transfer programmes on schooling outcomes Journal of Development Effectiveness, volume 6, issue 1, p. 1 - 43 Posted: 2014

A I Barreca, M Guldi, J M Lindo, G R Waddell Saving babies? revisiting the effect of very low birth weight classification The Quarterly Journal of Economics, volume 126, issue 4, p. 2117 - 2123 Posted: 2011

A I Barreca, J M Lindo, G R Waddell Heaping-induced bias in regression-discontinuity designs Economic Inquiry, volume 54, issue 1, p. 268 - 293 Posted: 2016

R J Barro, G S Becker Fertility choice in a model of economic growth Econometrica, p. 481 - 501 Posted: 1989

G S Becker, H G Lewis On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children Journal of political Economy, volume 81, issue 2, p. 279 - 288 Posted: 1973

G S Becker, K M Murphy, R Tamura Human capital, fertility, and economic growth Journal of political economy, volume 98, issue 5, p. 12 - 37 Posted: 1990

M Bertanha, G W Imbens External validity in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, p. 1 - 39 Posted: 2019

J Bor Essays on the economics of hiv/aids in rural south africa. Scd dissertation Posted: 2013 J C Caldwell Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory. Population and development review, p. 321 - 366 Posted: 1976

S Calonico, M D Cattaneo, R Titiunik Robust nonparametric confidence intervals for regressiondiscontinuity designs Econometrica, volume 82, issue 6, p. 2295 - 2326 Posted: 2014

K Carruthers, U Ozek Losing hope: Financial aid and the line between college and work Economics of education review, volume 53, p. 1 - 15 Posted: 2016

R Cellini, F Ferreira, J Rothstein The value of school facility investments: Evidence from a dynamic regression discontinuity design The Quarterly Journal of Economics, volume 125, issue 1, p. 215 - 261 Posted: 2010

G Cerulli Ted: Stata module to test stability of regression discontinuity models. Statistical Software Components Posted: 2016-07 G Cerulli, Y Dong, A Lewbel, A Poulsen Testing stability of regression discontinuity models Regression Discontinuity Designs: Theory and Applications, volume 38, p. 317 - 339 Posted: 2017

J Cleland Education and future fertility trends, with special reference to mid-transitional countries. Completing the fertility transition, volume 26, p. 187 - 202 Posted: 2002 H Cochrane Children as by-products, investment goods and consumer goods: a review of some microeconomic models of fertility Population Studies, volume 29, issue 3, p. 373 - 390 Posted: 1975

A Cohen, R Dehejia, D Romanov Financial incentives and fertility Review of Economics and Statistics, volume 95, issue 1, p. 1 - 20 Posted: 2013

A Conde-Agudelo, A Rosas-Bermúdez, A C Kafury-Goeta Birth spacing and risk of adverse perinatal outcomes: a meta-analysis Jama, volume 295, issue 15, p. 1809 - 1823 Posted: 2006

A Conde-Agudelo, A Rosas-Bermúdez, A C Kafury-Goeta Effects of birth spacing on maternal health: a systematic review American journal of obstetrics and gynecology, volume 196, issue 4, p. 297 - 308 Posted: 2007

A Conde-Agudelo, A Rosas-Bermudez, F Castaño, M H Norton Effects of birth spacing on maternal, perinatal, infant, and child health: a systematic review of causal mechanisms Studies in family planning, volume 43, issue 2, p. 93 - 114 Posted: 2012

R C B Da Rocha Conditional cash-transfer programs and fertility: Evidence from bolsa-família 31 o Meeting of the Posted: 2010

J Davanzo, L Hale, A Razzaque, M Rahman Effects of interpregnancy interval and outcome of the preceding pregnancy on pregnancy outcomes in matlab An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, volume 114, issue 9, p. 1079 - 1087 Posted: 2007

M Doepke Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth Journal of Economic growth, volume 9, issue 3, p. 347 - 383 Posted: 2004

Dong Regression discontinuity applications with rounding errors in the running variable Journal of Applied Econometrics, volume 30, issue 3, p. 422 - 446 Posted: 2015

A Dong, Lewbel Identifying the effect of changing the policy threshold in regression discontinuity models Review of Economics and Statistics, volume 97, issue 5, p. 1081 - 1092 Posted: 2015

A C Eggers, A Fowler, J Hainmueller, A B Hall, J M Snyder On the validity of the regression discontinuity design for estimating electoral effects: New evidence from over 40,000 close races American Journal of Political Science, volume 59, issue 1, p. 259 - 274 Posted: 2015

A Fiszbein, N R Schady, F H Ferreira Conditional cash transfers: reducing present and future poverty Posted: 2009 O Galor, D N Weil The gender gap, fertility, and growth The American Economic Review, volume 86, issue 3, p. 374 - 387 Posted: 1996

O Galor, D N Weil Population, technology, and growth: From malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond American economic review, volume 90, issue 4, p. 806 - 828 Posted: 2000

O Galor, J Zeira Income distribution and macroeconomics. The review of economic studies, volume 60, p. 35 - 52 Posted: 1993 S Garganta, L Gasparini, M Marchionni, M Tappatá The effect of cash transfers on fertility: Evidence from argentina Population Research and Policy Review, volume 36, issue 1, p. 1 - 24 Posted: 2017

M Gerard, C Rokkanen, Rothe Bounds on treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs with a manipulated running variable Quantitative Economics, volume 11, issue 3, p. 839 - 870 Posted: 2020

C F Giustinelli, F Manski, Molinari Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the health and retirement study National Bureau of Economic Research Posted: 2018-04

N Gupta, I Da Costa Leite Adolescent fertility behavior: trends and determinants in northeastern brazil. International Family Planning Perspectives, p. 125 - 130 Posted: 1999 P Hahn, W V Todd, Der Klaauw Identification and estimation of treatment effects with a regressiondiscontinuity design Econometrica, volume 69, issue 1, p. 201 - 209 Posted: 2001

E Hanushek The trade-off between child quantity and quality Journal of Political Economy, volume 100, issue 1, p. 84 - 117 Posted: 1992

J J Heckman, R J Willis Estimation of a stochastic model of reproduction: An econometric approach Household production and consumption, p. 99 - 146 Posted: 1976

M Hoem Social policy and recent fertility change in sweden. Population and Development Review, p. 735 - 748 Posted: 1990 Y.-I A Kim Lifetime impact of cash transfer on fertility Canadian Studies in Population, volume 41, issue 1-2, p. 97 - 110 Posted: 2014

M Lagarde, A Haines, N Palmer Conditional cash transfers for improving uptake of health interventions in low-and middle-income countries: a systematic review Jama, volume 298, issue 16, p. 1900 - 1910 Posted: 2007

G Laroque, B Salanié Does fertility respond to financial incentives? IZA Discussion Papers 3575 Posted: 2008-07

D S Lee, T Lemieux Regression discontinuity designs in economics Journal of economic literature, volume 48, issue 2, p. 281 - 355 Posted: 2010

D S Lee, T Lemieux Regression discontinuity designs in social sciences. Regression Analysis and Causal Inference Posted: 2014

K Lindert, A Linder, J Hobbs, B De The nuts and bolts of brazil's bolsa família program: implementing conditional cash transfers in a decentralized context Posted: 2007

F Manski, F Molinari Rounding probabilistic expectations in surveys Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, volume 28, issue 2, p. 219 - 231 Posted: 2010

J Mccrary Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test Journal of Econometrics, volume 142, issue 2, p. 698 - 714 Posted: 2008

Bolsa Família Management Manual. MDS, Brazilian Ministry for Agrarian and Social Development Posted: 2015

Cadúnico Management Manual for Federal Social Programs. MDS, Brazilian Ministry for Agrarian and Social Development Posted: 2011

K Milligan Subsidizing the stork: New evidence on tax incentives and fertility Review of Economics and statistics, volume 87, issue 3, p. 539 - 555 Posted: 2005

O Moav Cheap children and the persistence of poverty. The economic journal Economics Letters, volume 115, issue 500, p. 401 - 405 Posted: 2000

R G Olson, S A Clark, Reynolds Can a conditional cash transfer reduce teen fertility? the case of brazil's bolsa familia Journal of health economics, volume 63, p. 128 - 144 Posted: 2019

S Palermo, A Handa, L Peterman, D Prencipe, Seidenfeld Unconditional government social cash transfer in africa does not increase fertility Journal of Population Economics, volume 29, issue 4, p. 1083 - 1111 Posted: 2016

S Pudney Heaping and leaping: Survey response behaviour and the dynamics of self-reported consumption expenditure ISER Working Paper Series Posted: 2008

W C Robinson The economic theory of fertility over three decades. Population studies, volume 51, p. 63 - 74 Posted: 1997

M A Rokkanen Exam schools, ability, and the effects of affirmative action: Latent factor extrapolation in the regression discontinuity design. Department of Economics Discussion Papers, p. 1415 - 1418 Posted: 2015

P Schultz Demand for children in low income countries. Handbook of population and family economics, volume 1, p. 349 - 430 Posted: 1997

P Schultz School subsidies for the poor: evaluating the mexican progresa poverty program Journal of development Economics, volume 74, issue 1, p. 199 - 250 Posted: 2004

P Schultz Effects of fertility decline on family well-being: Evaluation of population programs Posted: 2005

B A Signorini, B L Queiroz The impact of bolsa familia program in the beneficiary fertility Cedeplar/UFMG Working paper Series, volume 439 Posted: 2011

P Simões, R B Soares Efeitos do programa bolsa família na fecundidade das beneficiárias Revista Brasileira de Economia, volume 66, issue 4, p. 445 - 468 Posted: 2012

R P Soares, F V Ribas, Soares Targeting and coverage of the bolsa familia programme: Why knowing what you measure is important in choosing the numbers Posted: 2010

G Stecklov, P Winters, J Todd, F Regalia Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: experimental evidence from latin america Population Studies, volume 61, issue 2, p. 125 - 140 Posted: 2007

J E Todd, P Winters, G Stecklov Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs on fertility: the case of the red de protección social in nicaragua Journal of Population Economics, volume 25, issue 1, p. 267 - 290 Posted: 2012

P E Todd, K I Wolpin Assessing the impact of a school subsidy program in mexico: Using a social experiment to validate a dynamic behavioral model of child schooling and fertility. The American economic review, volume 96, p. 1384 - 1417 Posted: 2006

A Wendt, C M Gibbs, S Peters, C J Hogue Impact of increasing inter-pregnancy interval on maternal and infant health. Paediatric and perinatal epidemiology, volume 26, p. 239 - 258 Posted: 2012

R Willis A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior Journal of Political Economy, volume 81, issue 2, p. 14 - 64 Posted: 1973

J Zhang, P Quan, Van Meerbergen The effect of tax-transfer policies on fertility in canada Journal of human Resources, p. 181 - 201 Posted: 1994

S Zinn, A Würbach A statistical approach to address the problem of heaping in self-reported income data Journal of Applied Statistics, volume 43, issue 4, p. 682 - 703 Posted: 2016