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Dynamics of Return and Liquidity (Co)Jumps in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets

Serdengecti, Suleyman and Sensoy, Ahmet and Nguyen, Duc Khuong (2020): Dynamics of Return and Liquidity (Co)Jumps in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets.

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We investigate the dynamics of return and liquidity (co)jumps for three of the most traded emerging market currencies vis-à-vis US dollar. We find that an increase in the average bid-ask spread significantly reduces the duration between consecutive return jumps, while liquidity and volatility only play a partial role on the duration between consecutive liquidity jumps and return-liquidity cojumps. There is also evidence of vicious return-liquidity spirals in views of the positive contemporaneous impact of liquidity jumps on volatility and return jumps on the bid-ask spread. Moreover, scheduled macroeconomic news and central bank announcements increase the likelihood of both return and liquidity (co)jumps. Finally, jump adjusted high frequency FX trading strategies are shown to have superior performance over the buy-and-hold strategy.

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