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Взаимосвязь экономического развития и возрастной структуры населения регионов Российской Федерации

Alexey, Kurbatskiy and Nikita, Artamonov and Timur, Khalimov (2020): Взаимосвязь экономического развития и возрастной структуры населения регионов Российской Федерации.

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Abstract

This paper focuses on the interconnection between the economic growth and the age structure. It is assumed that while modeling economic growth, we should take in consideration such indicators, as the ones that describe age distribution of people, which also, in some degree, explain the supply of human capital. In this paper we carried out an econometric analysis of the age structure’s impact on economic development in regions of Russian Federation based on panel data from 2001 to 2016. The panel has been tested for unit root (CIPS-test) and spatial correlations (Moran’s I, Moran’s test, RW-test). The basic regression model in the paper is the panel linear regression with spatial lag and spatial autocorrelated error term (SARAR regression). The choice of regression model is based on the results of panel data tests. Although the coefficients for some age groups are significant in the model, their marginal responses are insignificant due to spillover effects. As a result, it is shown, that the greatest positive effect on economic growth is from age category 25-39 years. The impacts of the significant age categories are estimated.

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