Secular Fertility Declines Hinder Long-Run Economic Growth

Huang, Kaixing (2018): Secular Fertility Declines Hinder Long-Run Economic Growth.

Abstract

Declining fertility is among the most salient features of global demography. By examining the lagged effects of fertility on the economic growth of 164 countries over the last half-century, this study found that the effect of a fertility decline lasts for more than three decades and that the long-run average effect is strongly negative for most countries. This finding was confirmed by using the plausibly exogenous fertility declines from the global family planning campaign since the mid-1960s. Within-country evidence from China’s one-child policy also confirmed this finding. Therefore, secular fertility declines represent a strong force driving down global economic growth.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Secular fertility declines, economic growth, birth control
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E10 - General

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