Internet traffic dynamics

Madden, Gary G and Coble-Neal, Grant (2004): Internet traffic dynamics. Published in: Telektronikk , Vol. 4, No. 100 (2004): pp. 168-179.

Abstract

The telecommunications industry has evolved at unprecedented rates with current estimates suggesting that seven percent of the world’s population now has access to the Internet. However, such growth has stimulated vigorous competition in national and international telecommunications markets leading to a price-cost margin squeeze and unsustainable rates of network expansion. This study demonstrates the reliability of established extrapolation methods for forecasting bandwidth demand and provides network managers with the opportunity to observe Internet traffic dynamics. The ability to anticipate periods of peak use and surplus capacity is likely to pay dividends in terms of a more targeted approach to network expansion plans.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Telecommunications; forecasting; bandwidth
• Subjects: L - Industrial Organization > L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities > L96 - Telecommunications

References

Armstrong, J S, Collopy, F. Error measures for generalizing about forecast methods: Empirical comparisons. International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69–80, 1992.

Borenstein, S, Saloner, G. Economics and electronic commerce. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 3–12, 2001.

Fildes, R. The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods. International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 81–98, 1992.

Fildes, R, Hibon, M, Makridakis, S, Meade, N. Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: Further empirical evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 339–358, 1998.

Grambsch, P, Stahel, W A. Forecasting demand for Special telephone services. International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 53–64, 1990.

Hampel, F R, Ronchetti, E M, Rousseeuw, P J, Stahel, W A. Robust Statistics: The Approach Based On Influence Functions. New York, Wiley, 1986.

Makridakis, S, Andersen, A, Carbone, R, Fildes, R, Hibon, M, Lewandowski, R, Newton, J, Parzen, E, Winkler, R. The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods; Results of a forecasting competition. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 111–153, 1982.

Makridakis, S, Hibon, M. The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications. International Journal of Forecasting, 16 (4), 451–476, 2000.

Newton, H. Newton’s Telecom Dictionary. New York, CMP Books, 2000.

Parzen, E. ARARMA models for time series analysis and forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 67–82, 1982.

TeleGeography Inc. TeleGeography 2000: Global Telecommunications Traffic Statistics and Commentary. Washington, TeleGeography Inc., 2000.

TeleGeography Inc. (2001a) TeleGeography 2001: Global Telecommunications Traffic Statistics and Commentary. Washington, TeleGeography Inc., 2001.

TeleGeography Inc. (2001b) International Bandwidth. Washington, TeleGeography Inc., 2001.