China’s Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement: Strategic Move to Foster Political and Financial Hegemony

Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi (2019): China’s Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement: Strategic Move to Foster Political and Financial Hegemony.

Abstract

ABSTRACT The global financial crisis of 2008 nearly put a halt to China’s export-led and current account surpluses trajectory, in 2007 China’s current account surplus fell from 10% of GDP to about 2% in 2013. This necessitates the internationalization of the Chinese Renminbi to boost trade, investment and hedge against foreign currency risk through bilateral currency swap. In bilateral currency swap, on the trade date, counter parties exchange notional amounts in two different currencies. For instance, one party receives 30 million British pounds while the other receives 3.3 million Chinese Renminbi. This implies a GBP/RMB exchange rate of 1.1, and at the end of the deal they swap again using the same exchange rate. Evidently, the currency bilateral swap agreements signed by the People’s Bank of China and some Central Banks in advanced, emerging markets and developing economies is reinforcing the trend of Renminbi internationalization in global trade. Our empirical results show that Furthermore, the relative trade shares and exports intensity depicts a large positive swing especially for the swap provider, further suggesting that swap line’s primal motive perhaps resolves around the provider country’s self-interest, even though the benefits are substantially symbiotic for the recipient and provider country.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bilateral Currency Swap Line, Financial Development China, Trade Flows, and Renminbi Internationalization.
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business; G - Financial Economics > G0 - General; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services

References

References

Adam-Muller, A. (2000). Exports and Hedging Exchange Rate Risks: The Multi Country Case. (International Trade). Journal of Futures Markets, 20(9), 843.

Aghion, P., Howitt, P., Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence. Quarterly Journal Economics, 120 (1), 173–222.

Agnosteva, Delina E., James E. Anderson, and Yoto V. Yotov. (2014). Intra-National Trade Costs: Measurement and Aggregation. NBER Working Paper No. 19872.

Aitken, Norman D., (1973). The effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis. American Economic Review 5, 881–892.

Aizenman J., YothinJinjarak, & Donghyun P. (2011). International Reserves and Swap Lines: Substitutes or Compliments? International Review of Economics and Finance, 20(5), 5-18.

Aizenman, J., & Lee, J. (2008). Financial versus monetary mercantilism: Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding. The World Economy, 31(5), 593.

Aizenman, J., Yothin Jinjarak, & Huanhuan Zheng (2017). Chinese Outwards Mercantilism – The Art and Practice of Bundling, NBER, WP, 21089.

Aizenman, Joshua and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha. (2010). Selective Swap Arrangements and the Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Interpretation. International Review of Economics& Finance, 19(3), 353-65.

Allayannis G, Ihrig J, Weston JP. (2001). Exchange-Rate Hedging: Financial Versus Operational Strategies. American Economic Review Papers Proc 91:391–395

Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170–192.

Anderson, J.E., and Yotov. Yotov. (2011). Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002. NBER Working Paper No. 17003.

Anderson, James E., (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review 69 (1), 106–116.

Antras, P. & Caballero, R. J. (2009). Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective. Journal of Political Economy, 117(4):701-744.

Anwar, Y. (2014). Pakistan's Currency Swap Agreement with China. Enterprise, 20(10), 11.

Arcand, Jean-Louis, Enrico Berkes, and Ugo Panizza. (2011).Too Much Finance?, VoxEU.org, 7 April.

Arize, A. C., Osang, T., & Slottje, D. J. (2008). Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and Its Impact on Foreign Trade. International Review of Economics and Finance, 17(1), 33-44.

Armington, P. S. (I969) “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production”, IMF Staff Papers, 16(1)159-177.

Auboin, M., & Ruta, M. (2013). The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A literature review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2004). Economic Determinants of Free Trade Agreements. Journal of International Economics, 64(1), 29–64.

Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members’ International Trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72–95.

Baier, S. L., Bergstrand, J. H., & Vidal, E. (2007). Free Trade Agreements in The Americas: Are the Trade Effects Larger Than Anticipated? World Economy, 30(9), 1347-1377.

Baier, Scott L., Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. (2001). The Growth of World Trade: Tariffs, Transport Costs, and Income Similarity. Journal of International Economics 53 (1), 1–27.

Baldwin, R. (2006). The euro's trade effects. IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc,

Baldwin, R., & Taglioni, D. (2006). Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations. NBER Working Paper 12516, Cambridge, MA.

Baltagi, B.H., Demetriades, P.O., Law, S.K., (2009). Financial Development and Openness: Evidence from Panel Data. Journal of Development Economics. 89 (2), 285–296.

Bank for International Settlements. September (2013). Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange Turnover in April 2013: Preliminary Global Results. Monetary and Economic Depart¬ment.

Bank of Korea. (2012). Introduction of Korea-China Currency Swap-Financed Trade Settlement Facility. Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Bank of Korea.

Barkoulas, J.T., Baum, C.F., Caglayan, M. (2002). Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows. Journal International Money. Finance 21 (4), 481–496.

Barro, R., and S. Tenreyro. (2007). Economic Effects of Currency Unions. Economic Inquiry 45 (1): 1–23.

Beck, T. (2002). Financial Development and International Trade: Is There a Link? Journal. International. Economics. 57 (1), 107–131.

Beck, T. and Levine, R. (2004). Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence, Journal of Banking and Finance,28, 423–42.

Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2010). Financial Institutions and Markets Across Countries and Over Time: The Updated Financial Development and Structure database. The World Bank Economic Review, 24(1), 77-92

Beck, T., Levine, R., Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the Sources of Growth. Journal Financial Economics 58 (1), 261– 300.

Becker, B. & Greenberg, D. (2007). Financial Development, Fixed Costs and Inter-national Trade. Working Paper, Harvard Business School.

Bencivenga, Valerie R., Bruce, D. Smith. (1991). Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth, Review Economic Studies 58 (2), 195–209.

Blackburn, K., Bose, N., Capasso, S. (2005). Financial Development, Financing Choice and Economic Growth. Review of Development Economics, 9 (2), 135–149.

Blackburn, K., Hung, V.T.Y. (1998). A Theory of Growth, Financial Development and Trade, Economica, 65 (257), 107–124.

Bowles, P., & Wang, B. (2013). Renminbi Internationalization: A Journey to Where? Development and Change, 44(6), 1363-1385.

Braun, M., Raddatz, C.E. (2005). Trade Liberalization and the Politics of Financial Development. World Bank Working Paper 3517.

Broll U, Wahl JE, Wessel C. (2011). Export, Exchange Rate Risk and Hedging: The Duopoly Case. German Economic Review 12:490–502

Broll, U., & Eckwert, B. (1999). Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade. Southern Economic Journal, 66(1), 178-185.

Broll, U., Welzel, P., & Wong, K. (2015). Futures Hedging with Basis Risk and Expectation Dependence. International Review of Economics, 62(3), 213-221.

Bun, M. J., and F. J. Klaassen. (2007). The Euro Effect on Trade is Not as Large as Commonly Thought. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69 (4): 473–496.31

Caglayan, M., & Di, J. (2010). Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Sectoral Trade Flows? Southern Economic Journal, 77(2), 313-335.

Caglayan, M., Dahi, O., & Demir, F. (2013). Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries. Southern Economic Journal.

Campanella, Miriam. (2014). The Internationalization of the Renminbi and the rise of a Multipolar Currency System, ECIPE Working paper, No.01/2014

Campbell, D. L. (2013). Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle. The World Economy.

Cavallo, Eduardo, and Carlos Scartascini (2012). Interest Groups and Government Capabilities Matter for Financial Development, VoxEU.org.

Chen, H., W. Peng and C. Shu. (2009). Renminbi as an International Currency: Potential and Policy Considerations, Working Paper, 18/2009 (Hong Kong: Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research).

Chen, Xiaoli and Yin-Wong Cheung. (2011). Renminbi Going Global. China & World Economy, 19(2), 1-18.

Cheung, Y.- W., Chow, K Kand Qin. F. (2017). The RMB Exchange Rate: The Past Present and the Future, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte Ltd., ISBN 9789814675499.

Cheung, Y.-W., G. Ma and R. N. McCauley. (2011). ‘Renminbising China’s Foreign Assets.’ Pacific Economic Review no. 16: 1–17.

Chey, H. (2012). Theories of International Currencies and the Future of the World Monetary Order1. International Studies Review, 14(1), 51-77.

Cihák M., Demirgüç-Kunt A., Feyen E. and Levine R. (2012). (Eds.), Benchmarking Financial Systems Around the World. Washington, D.C., the World Bank.

Cihák M., Demirgüç-Kunt A., Feyen E. and Levine R. (2013). Benchmarking Financial Systems around the World, NBER Working Paper 18946, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Clark, P.B. (1973). Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, and the Level of International Trade. Western Economic Journal 6, 302–313.

Cohen, Benjamin J. (2012). The Yuan Tomorrow? Evaluating China’s Currency Internationalization Strategy. New Political Economy 17(3):361–371.

Cui, Y. (2013a). The Internationalization of the RMB: Where does the RMB Currently Stand in the Process of Internationalization. Asian - Pacific Economic Literature, 27(2), 68-85.

Cui, Y. (2013b). How is the RMB Exchange Rate Misaligned? A Recent Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to China. Journal of East Asian Economic Integration, 17(3), 281-310.

Dai, M., Yotov, Y. V., &Zylkin, T. (2014). On the Trade-Diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements. Economics Letters, 122(2), 321-325.

Darrat, A.F., Elkhal, K., McCallum, B. (2006). Finance and macroeconomic Performance. Some Evidence for Emerging Markets. Emerging Market Finance and Trade 42 (3), 5–28.

David M. (2016). Renminbi SDR Inclusion Boost to Liquidity, focus: Renminbi Swap Network, OMFIF Bulletin.

Demetriades, P., Andrianova, S. (2004). Finance and Growth: What We Know and What We Need to Know. In: Goodhart, C. (Ed.), Financial Development and Economic Growth: Explaining the Links. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 38–65.

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Levine, R. (2009). Finance and inequality: Theory and Evidence. Policy Research Working Paper Series No. 4967. The World Bank, Washington DC.

Destais, C. (2016). Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary system. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 52(10), 2253-2266.

Do, Q.-T., Levchenko, A.A. (2004). Trade and Financial Development. World Bank Working Paper 3347.

Doganlar, M. (2002). Estimating the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports: Evidence from Asian Countries. Applied Economics Letters, 9(13), 859-863.

Ductor, L., Grechyna, D. (2015). Financial Development, Real Sector, and Economic Growth. International Review Economics of Finance. 37 (3), 393–405.

Eaton, Jonathan, Kortum, Samuel (2002). Technology, Geography, and Trade.Econometrica70 (5), 1741–1779. Egger, Peter, and Sergey Nigai. (2015). Structural Gravity with Dummies Only. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10427.

Eichengreen, B. (2011b). ‘The Renminbi as an International Currency’, Journal of Policy Modeling, 33, 5, 723–30.

Eichengreen, Barry. (2011a). Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Eichengreen, Barry. (2014). International Currencies Past, Present and Future: Two Views from Economic History.

Eicher, T. S., Henn, C., & Papageorgiou, C. (2012). Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27(2), 296-321.

Esposito, P. (2017). Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Imbalances in the EMU DOI:

Ethier, W. (1973). International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market. American Economics Review. 63,494-503.

Feenstra, R. C. (2004). Advanced International Trade: Theory and evidence. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Frankel, J. A. (1997). Regional Trading Blocs. Washington: Institute for International Economics.

Fung, M.K. (2009). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Convergence or Divergence? Journal International Money Finance, 28 (1), 56–67.

Gao, H. and Yu, Y. (2009). Internationalization of the Renminbi, Paper Presented at the Bank for International Settlements/Bank of Korea seminar, Currency Internationalization: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis and Prospects for the Future in Asia and the Pacific, Seoul, Korea, 19–20 March.

Germain, R., & Schwartz, H. (2017). The Political Economy of Currency Internationalization: The Case of the RMB. Review of International Studies, 43(4), 765-787.

Ghosh, S., & Yamarik, S. (2004). Are Regional Trading Arrangements Trade Creating? An Application of Extreme Bounds Analysis. Journal of International Economics, 63(2), 369–395.

Glick, R., & Rose, A. K. (2016). Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Reassessment. European Economic Review, 87, 78-91.

Glick, R., and A. Rose. (2002). Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time-series evidence. European Economic Review 6 (6): 1125–1151.

Goldberg L. S., Kennedy C. & Miu J. (2010.) “Central Bank Dollar Swap Lines and Overseas Dollar Funding Costs”, NBER Working Paper, No 15763, February.

Goldberg, L. and C. Tille (2008). Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade, Journal of International Economics, 76, 2, 177–92.

Goswami, G., Nam, J., & Shrikhande, M. M. (2004). Why do Global Firms Use Currency Swaps? Theory and Evidence. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 14(4), 315-334.

Greenwood, J., Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income. Journal Political Economy, 98 (5), 1076–1107.

Grier, K. B., & Smallwood, A. D. (2013). Exchange Rate Shocks and Trade: A Multivariate GARCH-M Approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 37, 282-305.

Guariglia, A., Poncet, S. (2008). Could Financial Distortions be no Impediment to Economic Growth After All? Evidence from China. Journal Comparative Economics. 36 (4), 633–657.

Havránek, T. (2010). Rose Effect and the Euro: Is the Magic Gone? Review of World Economics 146 (2): 241–261. He, D. (2012). Renminbi Internationalization: A Primer, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Hong Kong.

Head, Keith, & Thierry Mayer. (2014). Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook. Chapter 3 in the Handbook of International Economics Vol. 4, eds. Gita Gopinath,

Elhanan Helpman, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, Elsevier Ltd., Oxford.

Hondroyiannis, G., Lolos, S. and Papapetrou, E. (2005). Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Greece, 1986–1999, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 15, 173–88.

Huang, Y. & Temple, J. (2005). Does External Trade Promote Financial Development? Working Paper 5150, CEPR Discussion Paper.

Ito, T. (2011). The Internationalization of the RMB: Opportunities and Pitfalls, Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geo-economic Studies and International Institutions and Global Governance Program, Council on Foreign Relations.

Ju, J. & Wei, S. (2011). When is Quality of Financial System a Source of Comparative Advantage? Journal of International Economics, 84(2):178-187.

Kamps, A. (2006). The Euro as Invoicing Currency in International Trade, Working Paper 0665 (Frankfurt: European Central Bank).

Kawai M, Zilcha I. (1986) International Trade with Forward-Futures Markets under Exchange Rate and Price Uncertainty. Journal International Economics 20:83–98

Kenen, P. (2009). Currency Internationalization: An Overview, BIS Papers No. 61. Klein, M. W. (2005). Dollarization and Trade. Journal of International Money and Finance 24 (6): 935–943.

Kiendrebeogo, Y. (2012). The Effects of Financial Development on Trade Performance and the Role of Institutions. IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc.

Kim, D., Lin, S. C., & Suen, Y. (2010). Are Financial Development and Trade Openness Complements or Substitutes? Southern Economic Journal, 76(3), 827-845.

King, R. G. and Levine, R. (1993). Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might be Right, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108,717–37.

Klein, M. W. (2005). Capital Account Liberalization, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. Working Paper 11112, NBER.

Klein, M. W., and J. C. Shambaugh. (2006). Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade. Journal of international Economics 70 (2): 359–383.

Krugman, P. (1984). The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect, in J. Bilson and R. Marston (eds.), Exchange Rate Theory and Practice (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press), 261–78.

Kwon, E. (2015). China's Monetary Power: Internationalization of the Renminbi. Pacific Focus, 30(1), 78-102.

Lai, E. L., & Yu, X. (2015). Invoicing Currency in International Trade: An Empirical Investigation and Some Implications for the Renminbi. The World Economy, 38(1), 193-229.

Lai, E. L.-C. and J. Zhou. (2012). The Emergence of a Major Invoicing Currency, Working Paper (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology).

Lane, P. R., & Shambaugh, J. C. (2010). Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures. The American Economic Review, 100(1), 518-540.

Levine, R. (1997). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda. Journal Economic Literature. 35 (2), 688–726.

Levine, R. (2003). More on Finance and Growth: More Finance More Growth? Federal. Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. 85 (4), 31–46.

Levine, R. (2004). Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working PaperNo: 10766

Levine, R. and Zervos, S. (1998). Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth, American Economic Review, 88,537–58.

Li, B. (2013), The Prospect of Renminbi Pricing in Cross-Border Trade, China Finance, 2013, 23, 47–48.

Liao, S., & McDowell, D. (2015). Redback Rising: China's Bilateral Swap Agreements and Renminbi Internationalization. International Studies Quarterly, 59(3), 401-422.

Lin, Z., Zhan, W., & Cheung, Y. (2016). China's Bilateral Currency Swap Lines. China &World Economy, 24(6), 19-42.

Linnemann, Hans, (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. North-Holland, Amsterdam.

Loayza, Norman V., and Romain Ranciere. (2006). Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38:1051-76.

Love H and Chen C. (2015). Chinese Renminbi Internationalization: Guide to Present Developments, international services, Pnc.com/Go China.

Lucia O. (2016). Internationalization of the Chinese Currency: Towards a Multipolar International Monetary System? rocnik.

Magee, C. S. (2003). Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis. Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy, 2(1).

Magee, C. S. P. (2008). New Measures of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion. Journal of International Economics, 75(2), 349-362.

Manova, K. (2006). Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade. Working Paper, Harvard University. Matsuyama, K. (2005). Credit Market Imperfection and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows. Journal of the European Economic Association, 3(2-3):714-723.

Matsuyama, K., N. Kiyotaki and A. Matsui (1993). Toward a Theory of International Currency’, Review of Economic Studies, 60, 2, 283–307.

McCauley Robert. (2011). Renminbi Internationalization and China’s Financial Development. Bank for International Settlements.

Mcguire, P., & Von Peter, G. (2012). The dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response. International Finance, 15(2), 155-178.

McKenzie,M.D. (1999). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows. Journal. Economic. Survey. 13/1, 71–106.

Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New insights from a Panel Causality Approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.

Mishkin, F.S. (2009). Globalization and Financial Development. Journal of Development. Economics. 89 (2), 164–169.

Niroomand, F., Hajilee, M., & Al Nasser, O. (2014). Financial Market Development and Trade Openness: Evidence from Emerging Economies. Applied Economics, 46(13), 1490.

Nitsch, V. (2005). Currency union entries and trade. 2005/9. Diskussions beiträge DesFachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin.

Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J. C., & Taylor, A. M. (2009). Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008.The American Economic Review, 99(2), 480-486.

Olivero, María Pía, and Yoto Yotov. (2012). Dynamic Gravity: Endogenous Country Size and Asset Accumulation. Canadian Journal of Economics, 45(1): 64–92.

Park, Y. (2010). RMB Internationalization and its Implications for Financial and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia, China & World Economy, 18(2):1–21.

Rajan, R.G., Zingales, L. (2003). The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the Twentieth Century. Journal. Financial Economics69 (1), 5–50.

Rey, H. (2001). International Trade and Currency Exchange, Review of Economic Studies, 68, 2,443–64.

Rose, A. (2001). Currency Unions and Trade: The Effect is large. Economic Policy, (33), 449-461.

Rose, A. K., & Spiegel, M. M. (2012). Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements during the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 326-340.

Roubini, Nouriel. (2009). The Almighty Renminbi? The New York Times, May 13. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/opinion/14Roubini.html?_r = 0

Rousseau, P. and Wachtel, P. (2000). Equity Markets and Growth: Cross Country Evidence on Timing and Outcomes, Journal of Banking and Finance, 24, 1933–57.

Ruan V. (2013). “People’s Bank of China in Swap Deal with European Central Bank”, South China Morning Post, Friday, 11 October.

Sapir, Andre. (1981). Trade Benefits under the EEC Generalized System of Preferences. European Economic Review 15,339–355.

Silva, J., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The Log of Gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658.

Song, Z., StoresLetten, K., & Zilibotti, F. (2009). Growing Like China. IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc.

Subramanian, A. and Kessler, M. (2012). The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, rest of the World to go? Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) Working Papers No. 12–19.

Svaleryd, H. & Vlachos, J. (2005). Financial Markets, the Pattern of Industrial Specialization and Comparative Advantage: Evidence from OECD Countries. European Economic Review, 49(1):113-144.

Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing A New Broad-based Index of Financial Development, IMF Working paper, WP/16/5

Tenreyro, S. (2007). On the Trade Impact of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility, Journal of Development Economics, 82(2), 485-508.

Thom, R., and B. Walsh. (2002). The Effect of a Currency Union on Trade: Lessons from the Irish Experience. European Economic Review 46 (6): 1111–1123.

Tinbergen, Jan. (1962). Shaping the World Economy. The Twentieth Century Fund, New York.

Trefler, Daniel. (1993). Trade liberalization and the theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. import policy. Journal of Political Economy 101 (1), 138–160.

Vallee, S. (2012). The Internationalization Path of the Renminbi, Bruegel Working Paper No. 2012/05.

Viaene, J., & de Vries, C. G. (1992). International Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility. European Economic Review, 36(6), 1311-1321.

Viner, J., (1950). The Customs Union Issue. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, New York.

Wei, S. (1999). Currency Hedging and Goods Trade. European Economic Review, 43(7), 1371-1394.

Wilson, W. T. (2015). Washington, China, and the Rise of the Renminbi: Are the Dollar’s Days as the Global Reserve Currency Numbered? The Heritage Foundation, Special Report, No. 171.

Wong, K. P. (2003). Export Flexibility and Currency Hedging. International Economic Review, 44(4), 1295-1312.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2003). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (2nd Ed.). Cincinnati, OH: Southwestern College Publishing.

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

World Bank (2012). Global Financial Development Report 2013: Rethinking the Role of the State in Finance, World Bank, Washington DC.

Yang, J., & Han, L. (2013). Optimal Size of Currency Swap between Central Banks: Evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, 20(3), 203-207.

Yotov. V. Yoto, & Roberto, P, Jose-Antonio M, & Mario Larch. (2016). An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model, World Trade Organization.

Yu, Y. (2012). Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, ADBI Working Paper Series No. 366.