The Effect of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics

Ertugrul, H. Murat and Güngör, B. Oray and Soytas, Ugur (2020): The Effect of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics. Published in: Energy RESEARCH LETTERS , Vol. 3, No. 1 (2020): pp. 1-4.

Abstract

We analyze the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on volatility dynamics of the Turkish diesel market. We observe that a high volatility pattern starts around mid-April, 2020 and reaches its peak on 24/05/2020. This is due to the government imposed weekend curfews and bans on intercity travels. Two policy suggestions are provided. First is a temporary rearrangement of profit margins of dealers and liquid fuel distributors; and, second is a temporary tax regulation to compensate lost tax revenue.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Diesel Consumption, ARIMA Models, ARCH Family Models, Covid-19 pandemic
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C10 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting

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