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A revisit to effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia

Taguchi, Hiroyuki (2021): A revisit to effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia.

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Abstract

This paper aims to examine the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth with a focus on working-age population and saving rate in 17 Asian economies for the past period from 1970 to 2018 and for the future period from 2018 to 2050. For the analytical methodology, this study applies a panel vector autoregressive model considering endogenous interactions among concerned variables. The main findings are summarized as follows: first, the estimation identified both the direct channel from working-age population share to economic growth and the indirect channel through saving rate; second, the estimated result also found the feedback effect from economic growth to saving rate; third, the contribution ratio of the demographic effect to economic growth for the past period, around 30 percent on average, is consistent with those in previous studies; and fourth, in the projection for 2018-2050, the degrees of the negative demographic effects in sample economies are getting larger than those of previous studies, due to the earlier-coming population onus with aging.

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