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Nota metodológica sobre la proyección de exportaciones de productos agro-industriales. Revisión 2021.

Frank, Luis (2021): Nota metodológica sobre la proyección de exportaciones de productos agro-industriales. Revisión 2021.

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Abstract

The work that follows is part of a general review of the regARIMA models used to deseasonalize and project Argentine exports. Although the review was originally motivated by the effect of the COVID pandemic, in the particular case of agri-industrial exports, it focused on improving the explanatory capacity of the (exogenous) variables associated with foreign demand and the ENSO phenomenon, since the pandemic did not have a major impact on exports. The results suggest that (i) except for a few exceptions, world income (GDP) better explains the demand for agri-industrial products than the income of the main trading partner; (ii) the explanatory power of prices is not low per se, but because of the large number of missing prices, since prices come from the export registry itself and are, therefore, unobservable when exports are null; (iii) the effect of ENSO on exports is indirect and cannot be captured, in general, through indices of "anomalies" in the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean.

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