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Revisión de modelos para ajuste estacional y proyección de sectores de actividad del EMAE. Año 2021.

Frank, Luis (2021): Revisión de modelos para ajuste estacional y proyección de sectores de actividad del EMAE. Año 2021.

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Abstract

In the paper, regARIMA models used to seasonally adjust and to project the GVA at the section level of ISIC-3.1 are reviewed. Although the review was originally motivated by the effect of the COVID pandemic on seasonal adjustment, previous difficulties in reproducing the seasonally adjusted EMAE published by INDEC were also deeply analysed. From the review, it is inferred that discrepancies between the reproduced seasonally-adjusted EMAE and the series published by INDEC are explained by the exclusion of national holidays from INDEC's adjustment procedure, rather than by differences in the specifications of sectoral models. Besides, the discrepancy observed in the aggregated trend-cycle is due to the fact that INDEC follows the direct procedure proposed by E. Bee Dagum intead of an indirect procedure similar to that used to seasonally adjust the EMAE.

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