Estimation Bayésienne d’un modèle DSGE des effets de la politique budgétaire sur l’économie camerounaise

Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri (2022): Estimation Bayésienne d’un modèle DSGE des effets de la politique budgétaire sur l’économie camerounaise.

Abstract

This study sheds light on the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity in Cameroon while focusing on shocks and fluctuations in the economic cycle. For this we use a DSGE model using Bayesian estimation on quarterly data covering the period 1995q2 - 2020q1. The data comes from various sources including the Bank World, the National Institute of Statistics and the Table of State Financial Operations. The results show that GDP, public expenditure and consumption are mainly explained by public investment and consumption tax. Also, a decrease in Consumption tax induces an increase in GDP and household consumption. However, a restrictive monetary policy does not stimulate consumption and private investment. Finally, reducing taxes on capital means increasing production, consumption and public investment. One of the measures that the public authorities could consider, especially in this period of crisis, is the continuous increase in investments public utilities, some reduction in consumption tax and capital taxes for boost the Cameroonian economy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model of the effects of fiscal policy on the Cameroonian economy
• Language: French
• Keywords: fiscal policy; DSGE model; Bayesian estimation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy

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