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La crédibilité budgétaire au Sénégal

Diagne, Youssoupha Sakrya (2014): La crédibilité budgétaire au Sénégal. Published in: dpee.sn

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Abstract

This paper measures fiscal credibility in Senegal from 1993 to 2013. Empirical tests developed by Hamilton and Flavin (1986), Trehan and Walsh (1991) and Quintos (1995) are performed on Senegalese data to assess fiscal sustainability. Results show that the intertemporal budget constraint is weakly met. Public expenditures are partially covered by Government’s revenue according to the long term relationship between both variables. 1% increase in government spending is covered by 0.56% additional revenue. However, Senegal performs better than France according to estimates provided by INSEE (2004) which show a 0.24% adjustment of public spending by Government’s revenue between 1978 and 2003. In fact, Senegal’s result is close to the one obtained by Quintos (1992) for the United States during the period 1950-1992 who finds a measure of 0.6. However, spending process in Senegal suffers from a lack of discipline reflected in repeated changes in the spending composition within the year. This issue needs to be addressed as it weakens institutions, threatens fiscal transparency and undermines growth and poverty reduction targets.

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