Forecasting Model of Wheat Yield in Relation to Rainfall Variability in North Africa Countries

Soliman, Ibrahim (2019): Forecasting Model of Wheat Yield in Relation to Rainfall Variability in North Africa Countries. Published in: International Journal of Food and Beverage Manufacturing and Business Models (IJFBMBM) , Vol. 2, No. 4 (July 2019)

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of rainfall variations on wheat yield in Morocco, was a case study of North African countries because it cultivates the largest arable and rainfed acreage in North Africa. The data covered the period 2004–2015 from 12 stations for weather forecasting. The estimated coefficient of variation of wheat yield ranged between 79.5% and 38.0%, as it increased in poor-rain years and in the regions of annual rainfall less than 350 mm. the high correlation between the number of rainy days and the annual rainfall in mm, implied to introduce only the later as an explanatory variable in the forecasting model of wheat grain yield. The double-log form was the best fitted model for such model. The wheat yield showed higher significant response to spring months rain fall changes than the annual rainfall. The double-log form of the monthly rainfall model to forecast wheat yield. The estimated elasticity coefficient showed that a 10% increase in March, April and May rainfall would result in 5.9%, -0.1% and 0.2% change in wheat yield, respectively. The estimated response of wheat farm price to grain yield showed that a 10% increase in wheat yield would decrease the farm gate price by 4.1% implying that It is a supply-oriented market. Recommended Policies include generating a national buffer stock and a regional strategic stock of wheat to compensate the negative impacts of rainfall fluctuation and drought years, based upon an integrated program among North African countries. To provide a supplementary water source to secure sufficient water for irrigation. The areas less than 300mm rainfall should be allocated for livestock feeds with economical range management.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Annual rainfall, Seasonal rainfall, Wheat yields, Best fitted model, Significance tests, Wheat price projection
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q57 - Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services ; Biodiversity Conservation ; Bioeconomics ; Industrial Ecology

References

Abrahams M, Reynolds C, van Gool D, Falconer K-L, Peek C, Foster I and Gardiner D (2012) Developing potential adaptations to climate change for farming systems in Western Australia’s Northern Agricultural Region using the economic analysis tool STEP. Agricultural Business Management & Farming Systems Journal 9, (1): 9–28. Viewed March 2014, http://www.csu.edu.au/ No1-2012-02.pdf.

Ali R, McFarlane D, Varma S, Dawes W, Emelyanova I and Hodgson G (2012) Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16: 4581–4601.

Anwar MR, Liu DL, Farquharson R, Macadam I, Abadi A, Finlayson J, Wang B and Ramilan T (2015) Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broad acre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia. Agricultural Systems 132: 133–144.

Arnell, Nigel W. (2004) "Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios" Global Environmental Change, Volume 14, Issue 1, April, Pages 31-52.

Asseng S, and Pannell DJ (2013) Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia. Climate Change 118(2): 167–181.

Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield J. L., Ruane AC et al. (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 827–832.

Asseng S, McIntosh PC, Wang G and Khimashia N (2012). Optimal N fertilizer management based on a seasonal forecast. European Journal of Agronomy 38: 66–73.

AOAD, Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, (2016) "Agricultural Statistics Book", Khartoum, Sudan.

Baek CW and Coles NA (2013) An artificial catchment rainfall-runoff collecting system: Design efficiency and reliability potential considering climate change in Western Australia. Agricultural Water Management 121: 124–34.

Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE et al. (eds.) (2014) Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Bennett A (2013) Climate change response strategy. Bulletin 4790. Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia, Viewed May 2013 http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/bn_climatech angestrategy.pdf.

Browne N, Kingwell R, Behrendt R and Eckard R (2013) The relative profitability of dairy, sheep, beef and grain farm enterprises in southeast Australia under selected rainfall and price scenarios. Agricultural Systems 117: 35–44.

Dehgahi Raheleh, Joniyas Alireza, Hajjar Siti Noor, Latip Binti (2104) "Rainfall Distribution and Temperature Effects on Wheat Yield in Torbate Heydari" International Journal of Scientific Research in Knowledge, Vol. 2, Special Issue pp 121-126.

Ezekiel, M. K. Fox A. (1959) "Methods of Correlation and regression analysis: Linear and curvilinear" John Willy & Sons. Inc., New York. PP. 140, 241-248.

FAO, (2017a) "fao.org/faostat/en/#data/".

FAO (2017b) "fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/".

Feng X, Porporato A and Rodriguez-Iturbe I (2013) Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics. Nature Climate Change 3: 811–-815.

French RJ and Schultz J. E. (1984). Water use efficiency of wheat in a Mediterranean- type environment. I. The relation between yield, water use and climate. Crop and Pasture Science 35(6): 743–764.

Heng L. K., Asseng S., Mejahed K., Rusan M., (2006) "Optimizing wheat productivity in two rain-fed environments of the West Asia–North Africa region using a simulation model' European Journal of Agronomy, Volume 26, Issue 2, February, Pages 121-129.

Kirkegaard JA, and Hunt JR (2010) Increasing productivity by matching farming system management and genotype in water-limited environments. Journal of Experimental Botany 61(15): 4129–4143.

Misner, E. C. (1928) "Studies on the relation of weather to the production and price of farm products, (1) Corn, Mimeographed Publication. Cornell University, March.

Moeller C, Asseng S, Berger J and Milroy SP (2009). Plant available soil water at sowing in Mediterranean environments—Is it a useful criterion to aid nitrogen fertilizer and sowing decisions? Field Crops Research 114(1): 127–136.

Molden, D. (2007) "Water for food, water for life: A comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture", Edited Book, Earthscan International Water Management Institute, London, Colombo, UK.

Oliver YM, Robertson MJ and Weeks C (2010) A new look at an old practice: Benefits from soil water accumulation in long fallows under Mediterranean conditions. Agricultural Water Management, 98(2): 291–300.

Oweis, Theib, Pala Mustafa, and Ryan John (1997) "Stabilizing Rainfed Wheat Yields with Supplemental Irrigation and Nitrogen in a Mediterranean Climate" Agronomy Journal Abstract, Vol. 90 No. 5, p. 672-681.

Potgieter A, Meineke H, Doherty A, Sadras VO, Hammer G, Crimp S and Rodriguez D (2013) Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia. Climate Change 117: 163–179.

Qureshi ME, Hanjra MA and Ward J (2013) Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy (38): 136–145.

Sadras Victor O., John F. Angus (2005) "Benchmarking water-use efficiency of rainfed wheat in dry environments" Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 57 (8): 847-856.

Sánchez-Girón V., Serrano A, Suárez M, Hernanz J. L, Navarrete (2007) "Economics of reduced tillage for cereal and legume production on rainfed farm enterprises of different sizes in semiarid conditions" Soil and Tillage Research, Volume 95, Issues 1–2, September, Pages 149-160

Sanderson, F. H. (1954) "Methods of Crop Forecasting" Harvard University press, U.S.A. PP. 57-78, 109-118, and 181-238 and 239-254.

Schillinger William F., Schofstoll Steven E., and Alldredge J. Richard (2012) "Predicting Wheat Grain Yields Based on Available Water" WSU Extension bulletin Em049e, Washington State University Extension Wash. State University, Pullman, WA, USA.

Soliman I., (1984) "The economics of intensification of livestock production systems in the Arabic States" The National Symposium on "intensive livestock production systems in the Arabic States" commissioned by Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD)and hosted by the Ministry of Agriculture of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh, Oct., 1984.

SudmeyerRob, Edward Alexandra, Fazakerley Vic, Simpkin Leigh and Foster Ian (2016) "Climate change: Impacts and Adaptation for Agriculture in Western Australia", Bulletin 4870, Department of Food and Agriculture of Australia.

VSánchez-GirónaA, SerranobJ.L., HernanzaL., Navarrete (2004)"Economic assessment of three long-term tillage systems for rainfed cereal and legume production in semiarid central Spain" Soil and Tillage Research, Volume 78, Issue 1, July, Pages 35-44.

Waugh, F. V., Stevens C. D., Burmister G.(1929) "Methods of Forecasting New England Potato Yields" U. S. Dept. Ag. Econ. Mimeographed report, February.